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[Black Republican]

That CO poll is hard for me to believe, im sorry gaf

 

[The Librarian]

Mellman group being the ones who predicted Reid victory in 2010

They also had Obama up by five percentage points in Ohio, no?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

I would agree, I doubt CO is a 6 point win for either side.

 

[Tim-E]

Obama's margin in CO may not be that large when it's over, but it's pretty clear the state has been moving in his direction and it's very likely that he wins it.

 

[finalboss2]

Seriously what the hell is rasmussen doing? They had Romney GAINING in VA and their national number this morning. They always try to copy the rest at the very end to hide their bias. I am honestly confused.

its pretty typical of what they do with most polling. go to drudge report and you get the point here: it brings in the views.

 

[Cheebo]

its pretty typical of what they do with most polling. go to drudge report and you get the point here: it brings in the views.

But thats what they do most of the cycle to get the hits and drudge headlines. But at the last minute swing to match everyone else to claim they are accurate so they can continue to get attenion the next election. They aren't swinging to match everyone else this time.

 

[Touchdown]

YES

 

[syllogism]

Seriously what the hell is rasmussen doing? They had Romney GAINING in VA and their national number this morning. They always try to copy the rest at the very end to hide their bias. I am honestly confused.

Rasmussen has only been polling (under that name) since 2004; that's a pretty small sample size and I haven't really seen someone actually present a convincing case that they do that.

 

[The Lamonster]

538 down.

 

[Jadedx]

I've been looking back a few pages but I can't find the ppp florida poll.

 

[Meier]

Hi PoliGAF. Not a regular participant in this thread, but I thought this post from my brother about DOMA was worth sharing. Matt lives in London and has done so for about 5 years now and this paragraph in particular hit me quite hard.

It’s a good thing I like Britain, because DOMA means we’re stuck. DOMA means my folks have had to resign themselves to having a son who will forever be across an ocean. DOMA means whatever children I might some day have can never be brought up in the land of my birth. DOMA means, no matter how many times I waved my flag and sang The Star Spangled Banner at the London 2012 Olympics, my country isn’t really mine.

Religious organisations may celebrate whichever weddings they choose, but there is no civic purpose served by the US federal government saying my relationship counts for nothing, that the man with whom I share a life is hardly different than a stranger. Whether by passage of the Uniting American Families or the Respect for Marriage Acts, or by the intervention of the courts, I hope that will change. But until it does, it is worth remembering who is fighting to make sure it doesn’t.

http://www.avidly.org/2012/11/05/major-doma/

I grew up a Republican, but I can't in good conscience vote for the party right now because I refuse to be on the wrong side of history. I can't stand with a party who endorses the viewpoints they do on gay marriage as well as women's rights.

 

[Gucci Messiah]

I've been looking back a few pages but I can't find the ppp florida poll.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FLNC_1105.pdf

 

[codhand]

321 - 217 Beck's prediction

 

[darkside31337]

Seriously what the hell is rasmussen doing? They had Romney GAINING in VA and their national number this morning. They always try to copy the rest at the very end to hide their bias. I am honestly confused.

This is silly. They shouldn't adjust the data to fit the narrative, that is so utterly ridiculous. Their data is what it is.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Hi PoliGAF. Not a regular participant in this thread, but I thought this post from my brother about DOMA was worth sharing. Matt lives in London and has done so for about 5 years now and this paragraph in particular hit me quite hard.


http://www.avidly.org/2012/11/05/major-doma/

I grew up a Republican, but I can't in good conscience vote for the party right now because I refuse to be on the wrong side of history. I can't stand with a party who endorses the viewpoints they do on gay marriage as well as women's rights.

I get what your brother is saying, but it isn't like he can't live here or is forced to live somewhere else, especially considering Iowa, Vermont, Massachusetts, and soon to be Washington and possibly Maryland...

They aren't rounding up gays and throwing them in jails or anything.

 

[Byakuya769]

YES

I keep seeing Seinfeld pics with what looks like "tearing." Is this a thing now?

Apparently it's just Chrome being shitty on my end.

Disregard.

 

[Jadedx]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FLNC_1105.pdf

Loving the Rick Scott numbers.

 

[Sirpopopop]

Wow. Already discussing excuses, Lindsey?
*snap*swish*snap*


-- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), quoted by Politico, saying that demographics would be the only reason for a hypothetical Mitt Romney loss Tuesday.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83305_Page2.html

Well... a major problem for Republicans is their failure to appeal to demographics beyond white men.

 

[norinrad]

OMG

 

[AlteredBeast]

Well... a major problem for Republicans is their failure to appeal to demographics beyond white men.

and married white women, too!

 

[gcubed]

its great that PPP is bombarding us with polls but i find the numbers too good to believe without other polls backing them up

 

[Meier]

I get what your brother is saying, but it isn't like he can't live here or is forced to live somewhere else, especially considering Iowa, Vermont, Massachusetts, and soon to be Washington and possibly Maryland...

They aren't rounding up gays and throwing them in jails or anything.

I would recommend reading the entire post for a multitude of reasons. This part makes that untenable, frankly.

From the point of view of the federal government, though, that legislation may as well not exist. That’s what Edie Windsor found when her partner of over 40 years, whom she had married in Canada, died. Never mind that their home state of New York recognised the marriage as valid, the IRS assessed an inheritance tax bill of over $360,000 on Windsor, a bill that would have been nil if her dead spouse were a man. The Republican party platform calls for a ‘full repeal of the death tax’ (that’s their catchy name for estate taxes), and yet the Bipartisan Legal Advisory Group, controlled by House Republicans, was there front and centre to defend DOMA against the challenge of an 83 year-old woman.

 

[Touchdown]

I keep seeing Seinfeld pics with what looks like "tearing." Is this a thing now?

Apparently it's just Chrome being shitty on my end.

Disregard.

Chrome hates gifs, you have to kinda highlight the gift with your mouse and it should work.

 

[syllogism]

There is absolutely no way Obama is winning Colorado by 6, or 5 for that matter, and there are definitely plenty of precedents for a poll being off by 5 or even more points; even for polls that are clearly non-partisan (final fox news florida poll had Kerry up by 5). Still, it's more likely that the poll is off by less than that.

e: non-partisan in this context means that the poll isn't intentionally biased towards the candidate that didn't end up winning

 

[cartoon_soldier]

There is absolutely no way Obama is winning Colorado by 6, or 5 for that matter, and there are definitely plenty of precedents for a poll being off by 5 or even more points; even for polls that are clearly non-partisan (final fox news florida poll had Kerry up by 5). Still, it's more likely that the poll is off by less than that.

It's a matter of who is getting the Latino turnout right for CO

 

[Wafflecakes]

its great that PPP is bombarding us with polls but i find the numbers too good to believe without other polls backing them up

Same.

Was excited at first...but they are too universally positive for Obama and Dems.....they haven't had a disappointing one in days. Messin wit ma mind.

 

[mj1108]

Well... a major problem for Republicans is their failure to appeal to demographics beyond old white men.

Fixed.

 

[ivysaur12]

I'm late for work every morning because all I do now is check the polls.

 

[Tim-E]

its great that PPP is bombarding us with polls but i find the numbers too good to believe without other polls backing them up

Polls over the weekend have been great for Obama in general, not just PPP. The margins may not be as high as PPP, but he's consistently led in nearly all of them.

 

[gcubed]

Same.

Was excited at first...but they are too universally positive for Obama and Dems.....they haven't had a disappointing one in days. Messin wit ma mind.

i think he'll win the state, and there has been definite movement to Obama in the last 2 weeks, but I just don't think THAT much movement... and i'm not going with a gut feeling, its just PPP has gotten the majority of the attention here (or they are just doing the majority of the polling) that there hasn't been a lot of corroboration.

Either way, PPP has done such a glut of polling this cycle that, if they are correct, they stand to be de facto for the next cycle

 

[Hunter S.]

It's a matter of who is getting the Latino turnout right for CO

Probably true. Republicans usually get the military (which is vast), Colorado Springs and the rural areas. Denver and especially Pueblo have a lot more Latinos and their vote has heavy sway. Pueblo is reliably liberal as all hell! The Denver Metro area is more mixed and not as certain.

 

[syllogism]

Final Democracy corps (Greenberg/Carville) poll 49-45 O

e: national

 

[AlteredBeast]

I would recommend reading the entire post for a multitude of reasons. This part makes that untenable, frankly.

There are definitely those financial matters, I agree, but it is funny that Republicans run the so-called "Bipartisan Legal Advisory Group" who find to get more taxes out of people, especially ones that appear well-off enough to have an inheritance as big as hers.

 

[gcubed]

Polls over the weekend have been great for Obama in general, not just PPP. The margins may not be as high as PPP, but he's consistently led in nearly all of them.

oh no doubt all the numbers have been good for Obama. Some of these numbers are bordering on 2008 though. Its just so hard to get so confident after the cliff like drop after the first debate when we were all on a hopium high. I'm still confident he's going to win, but i'll still be nervous until its official. Its coming down to game time and I've never been able to go into a "sure thing" with the confidence of it being a sure thing

it seems like when they press undecideds they are breaking more for Obama

 

[Tamanon]

Final Democracy corps (Greenberg/Carville) poll 49-45 O

A State or National poll?

 

[Measley]

its great that PPP is bombarding us with polls but i find the numbers too good to believe without other polls backing them up

If minority and young people turnout is as high as I believe its going to be, I believe the 6 point spread from PPP. You have the marijuana initiative for young voters, and the mini-dream act to get out the hispanic voters.

 

[gcubed]

If minority and young people turnout is as high as I believe its going to be, I believe the 6 point spread from PPP. You have the marijuana initiative for young voters, and the mini-dream act to get out the hispanic voters.

thats true, i did forget about the other ballot initiatives that could push the turnout

 

[Stinkles]

Well... a major problem for Republicans is their failure to appeal to demographics beyond white men.

What's creepier is the inference that non white old people are somehow 'wrong.'

 

[Tim-E]

If minority and young people turnout is as high as I believe its going to be, I believe the 6 point spread from PPP. You have the marijuana initiative for young voters, and the mini-dream act to get out the hispanic voters.

The young people will be too high to remember to vote tomorrow.

 

[Measley]

thats true, i did forget about the other ballot initiatives that could push the turnout

Yeah, I think the GOP royally fucked themselves with latino voters. Some of the shit they were spewing in the primaries was offensive and borderline racist. You also have the Arizona law, and Republicans blocking the Dream act.

If Hispanic voters are anything like black voters, they will remember the political party who gave them the political middle finger for decades to come.

 

[pigeon]

i think he'll win the state, and there has been definite movement to Obama in the last 2 weeks, but I just don't think THAT much movement... and i'm not going with a gut feeling, its just PPP has gotten the majority of the attention here (or they are just doing the majority of the polling) that there hasn't been a lot of corroboration.

They just get a lot of the attention on PoliGAF for some reason -- probably because they tweet so much.

The Colorado poll is the only one out of line with concurrent polling (Ipsos tied, YouGov O+1), but there hasn't been much Colorado polling. Other states:

Florida O+1 (Ipsos tied, YouGov R+1, Mellman O+2, Marist O+2)
Iowa O+2 (YouGov O+1, Grove O+3, Selzer O+5, Gravis O+4, Mellman O+2)
North Carolina tied (Gravis R+4, YouGov R+2)
Virginia O+4 (Ipsos O+1, YouGov O+2, Marist O+1, WAA O+1)
Ohio O+5 (Ipsos O+4, YouGov O+3, Dispatch O+2, Grove O+4, CNN O+3, WAA O+4.4, Marist O+6)

Nothing too absurd. North Carolina tied is about the same as Colorado O+6 in terms of outlier status relative to available (sparse) data. Virginia also maybe a little high. Ohio close to center, Florida and Iowa low.

I have to run out the door but I want to do some demographic comparisons -- it kind of looks like they specifically show better results in more diverse states (except for Florida, so who knows).

 

[Hunter S.]

The young people will be too high to remember to vote tomorrow.

:jnc
The youth supports the legalization by a overwhelming 73% whether a user or not. The youth turnout should be higher here just because of the initiative for legalization.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

I could see FL and OH getting held hostage tomorrow night (and not called) with all the antics and hijinks going on in both.

Measley, what is the latest from the ground in the Buckeye State?

 

[el retorno]

:jnc
The youth supports the legalization by a overwhelming 73% whether a user or not. The youth turnout should be higher here just because of the initiative for legalization.

They're all gonna be high playing halo 4.

 

[gcubed]

I could see FL and OH getting held hostage tomorrow night (and not called) with all the antics and hijinks going on in both.

Measley, what is the latest from the ground in the Buckeye State?

The numbers posted by pigeon above puts Ohio out of hijinks status. Florida is close, so it most likely will take a while, but Ohio, if the polls hold true, should be called similar to 2008

 

[Cheebo]

Final University of Cinc. Ohio poll

O 50 (48 on 10/31)
R 48.5 (46 on 10/31)

They got the Ohio percentage in 2008 exactly right, considered best the Ohio pollster.

 

[BertramCooper]

Wow. Already discussing excuses, Lindsey?
*snap*swish*snap*


-- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), quoted by Politico, saying that demographics would be the only reason for a hypothetical Mitt Romney loss Tuesday.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83305_Page2.html

"Structurally, a Romney loss, following a McCain loss, would be a rebuke to moderates who have wanted ideological conservatives to fill the bus but not drive the bus,” said a GOP operative close to one sure-fire future presidential aspirant. “The nominee in 2016, if he is not a President Romney, will certainly be a card-carrying movement conservative with a track record to match."


This would make a helluva lot more sense if 2012 Romney were actually running as a moderate.

But he's not, so it doesn't.

 

[Plinko]

Wow. Already discussing excuses, Lindsey?
*snap*swish*snap*


-- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), quoted by Politico, saying that demographics would be the only reason for a hypothetical Mitt Romney loss Tuesday.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83305_Page2.html

Wouldn't they in actuality, though? Isn't Obama losing the white votes?

Plus, I take that as a positive statement from Graham. He's 100% correct.

 

[Tim-E]

"Structurally, a Romney loss, following a McCain loss, would be a rebuke to moderates who have wanted ideological conservatives to fill the bus but not drive the bus,” said a GOP operative close to one sure-fire future presidential aspirant. “The nominee in 2016, if he is not a President Romney, will certainly be a card-carrying movement conservative with a track record to match."


This would make a helluva lot more sense if 2012 Romney were actually running as a moderate.

But he's not, so it doesn't.

Yes, republican party, please do this. Might I suggest Rick Santorum?

 

[el retorno]

Final University of Cinc. Ohio poll

O 50 (48 on 10/31)
R 48.5 (46 on 10/31)

They got the Ohio percentage in 2008 exactly right, considered best the Ohio pollster.

Why are you posting it then? I want doom from you.