Can you guys stop with the Husted crap? He's already done most of the damage he could do. The paranoia is not normal.
Seriously.
Can you guys stop with the Husted crap? He's already done most of the damage he could do. The paranoia is not normal.
Can you guys stop with the Husted crap? He's already done most of the damage he could do. The paranoia is not normal.
Obama's lead in the RCP average is about to double.
"A new CNN Poll of Polls on Monday indicates the race in Ohioperhaps the most decisive battleground this presidential cycleis locked in a statistical dead heat."
wolf.jpg
(They are aware that aggregating polls reduces the margin of error right?)
These guys are amazing.
http://nation.foxnews.com/2012-presidential-election/2012/11/05/romney-will-win
Are you kidding me. Talk about misleading your viewers.
BTW, we can't trust Gallup. Let's wait for some reliable polls.
/PD
Obama barely outside the margin of error despite +11 dem ID lol. Fucking ridiculous poll
Can you guys stop with the Husted crap? He's already done most of the damage he could do. The paranoia is not normal.
RCP: "Gallup? Never heard of them."
GEORGE WILL: I forgot my exact number. I guess you have a graphic here. I guess the wild card in what I've projected is I'm projecting Minnesota to go for Romney.
Rush playing all the greatest hits this morning:
- "oversampling" polls
- Despicable "Revenge!" vote
- "Stevie Wonder vs. 15K-30K" turnout
There'll still be politics after the 2012 elections.So it looks like OT6 will be the final hurrah?
I guess Gallup will save face after all. Their numbers were wild outliers. They were either detecting something in the electorate that every other polling firm's been missing or their model was out of whack.
B-b-but, he's destroying ballots!!!
Or reverse mittmentum. He had so much it backfired.
Btw, a big fuck you to all of those who said everyone would have power back by election day
Btw, a big fuck you to all of those who said everyone would have power back by election day
Nobody has received 50% in the popular vote since Reagan in 1984.
In fairness to RCP, they're very consistent about not allowing privately funded polls. This cycle it happens that most of the released privately funded polls were positive for Obama, and that's mostly because Obama's doing really well, so it looks like they're underplaying his lead. But if I were to run an aggregator I'd probably want to weight down or reject privately funded polls as well -- you know immediately that they wouldn't have been released if they didn't say what the funder wanted.
Bush 2004 and Obama 2008
He is. 33k thrown out already. 40k were thrown out in 2008
He is. 33k thrown out already. 40k were thrown out in 2008
Final popular vote prediction: O - 51% , R - 47%, Third parties - 2%
Facts matter, Martha.He is. 33k thrown out already. 40k were thrown out in 2008
PhoenixDerp.Obama barely outside the margin of error despite +11 dem ID lol. Fucking ridiculous poll
Bush bucked the trend because more Democrats identified as independents. The situation is similar to this cycle except the parties are reversed.Kerry's Lead Among Independents Makes Bush's Situation Extremely Dire
Posted by rteixeira on October 31, 2004 11:26 PM
Yes. The NEP is a consortium of media organizations that conducts exit polls which permit comparison. And the ANES conducts a panel study before and after the election.Seeing how some of these polls are tracking at the national level, does anyone do a poll AFTER the election asking "who did you vote for" and seeing if that matches up with the actual results?
Bush 88.Bush 2004 and Obama 2008
MARXIST MUSLIM OWEBAMA'S CHICAGO THUGS, NATE SILVER THREATEN GALLUP INTO COMPLIANCE, COVERING UP +7 ROMNEY LEAD
I love it. This is great ammunition to discredit Fox "News".
Karl Rove: Rove says he believes the race will be very close, but predicts Romney gets between 279 and 286 votes in the electoral college and wins the popular vote by 2 to 2.5%.
GEORGE WILL: I forgot my exact number. I guess you have a graphic here. I guess the wild card in what I've projected is I'm projecting Minnesota to go for Romney.
Dick Morris: Morris says Romney will capture 325 electoral votes while Obama will get 213, a significant difference. . . . Morris tells van Susteren pollsters are oversampling Democrats and says a poll that claims Obama is up 3, really means Romney is winning by 4.
Michael Barone: Michael Barone explains why he believes Romney will win handily on Tuesday on FOX News' "Huckabee" program. Barone expects Romney to win Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Peggy Noonan: Romney will win
Charles Krauthammer: Krauthammer Predicts Romney Win
OK, duly noted. This will be used to judge predictions you make in the future.
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Based on our final polls we expect Barack Obama to win 303 electoral votes and Mitt Romney to win 191 with 44 up for grabs in FL and NC
bu bu but
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You are actively lying now. 33,000 ballots were not thrown out, they were sent absentee ballots a week late and you've been explained this fact multiple times. Moreover, the 40,000 you are citing are provisional ballots, not absentee ballots, meaning your comparison is nonsense and they were thrown out due to provisional balloting rules that don't exist anymore due to the 2010 Consent Decree.
Oh this will be fun.
The only intellectual defense: "we were advocating for our guy! The perception of winning increases turnout!"
Which of course means they'd rather manipulate the public than inform it.
Here's a quick thing to note about Ohio -- there were 5.7 million votes there in 2008. A 3% lead is around 170,000 votes that Husted has to magically vanish. And note that even in Obama's best counties, he's not going to win more than 70% or so -- so throwing out ten votes indiscriminately only cuts four votes from Obama's margin. For fraud to erase that lead it needs to throw out over 400,000 votes from Cuyahoga County or similar. That's around 7% of the entire Ohio vote. Provisional ballots will probably only make up about 3%. So you could toss them all and probably not change the result -- or even get into recount territory.
This doesn't even mention, of course, that there are pollwatchers everywhere, that there are weeks before provisionals will be counted for the judge to overrule Husted's directive, etc., etc.
bu bu but
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Owebama is a new one. Obummer, owebama, hussien, b-rock. What other nicks am I missing?
Maybe they'll do what Texas did and threaten the International Election Monitors and shut them out so they can do shady things in secret.
Here's a quick thing to note about Ohio -- there were 5.7 million votes there in 2008. A 3% lead is around 170,000 votes that Husted has to magically vanish. And note that even in Obama's best counties, he's not going to win more than 70% or so* -- so throwing out ten votes indiscriminately only cuts four votes from Obama's margin. For fraud to erase that lead it needs to throw out over 400,000 votes from Cuyahoga County or similar. That's around 7% of the entire Ohio vote. Provisional ballots will probably only make up about 3%. So you could toss them all and probably not change the result -- or even get into recount territory.
This doesn't even mention, of course, that there are pollwatchers everywhere, that there are weeks before provisionals will be counted for the judge to overrule Husted's directive, etc., etc.
* Obama's tally in Alameda County, home to Oakland and Berkeley, was only 79% in 2008.
Muslin, Obomba, etc..Owebama is a new one. Obummer, owebama, hussien, b-rock. What other nicks am I missing?
Owebama is a new one. Obummer, owebama, hussien, b-rock. What other nicks am I missing?
is this real? http://americablog.com/2012/11/romn...ostbitten-children-leave-pa-rally.html?ref=nf
I seriously don't know anymore
is this real? http://americablog.com/2012/11/romn...ostbitten-children-leave-pa-rally.html?ref=nf
I seriously don't know anymore