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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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P

pigeon

Banned
Diablos said:
Well the national tracking seems to be breaking for Romney right now, hopefully that doesn't continue.
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121wqx1xeddh.gif


this is surprisingly addictive
 
W

watershed

Banned
The only thing that makes me feel good about this election are the stories talking about Obama's impressive ground game. Some say early voter turnout is even higher than it was in 2008 favoring dems. I hope this holds true till election day.
 
R

Revolver

Member
Baraka in the White House said:
Gah, news programs are besides themselves with delight.

Oh and apparently Romney, "played it safe" during the FP debate.

Shit must end.
Click to expand...

Ugh, I can't take much more of this. Also on CBS This Morning they had a group of "undecided" voters and all but 2 of them thought Romney won the last debate. When it was pointed out how he seemed to be in agreement with Obama on pretty much everything, one of the undecided brain trust said something to the effect of "well he spoke with more conviction."
 
S

Slime

Banned
PANIC!

The "trend lines in several key states favoring Romney" line made me laugh. CNN doesn't seem to just be going for the horse race narrative lately, but a barely subtle pro-Romney one. Earlier they had Wolf and his co-host double-teaming an Obama advisor for not being nice to Israel. Oh, how the formerly tolerable have fallen.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Lol Erin Burnett just let out this gem after a report on how Florida is tied

"Just the way we like it. Good for the countdown!"

#stopCNN
 
C

Chumly

Member
Everyone knows that 75 percent of undecideds are frauds. Republicans have a worse habit because they like to declare themselves Independant to pretend they are somehow giving a non biased opinion (see every conservative on this forum)
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Black Mamba said:
I hate that this poll is considered Romney +1. There should be a concensus in the community that the difference should be >X.5 to do that in the rounding. The poll is a tie but on RCP it's +1. annoying.

Also, I've been meaning to ask why Gallup shows Obama up so small in the East. It makes no sense. Down huge in south, only up 5 in the East? WTF. Those states are not going to end up around Obama +5.
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maybe they include south carolina and georgia as part of the east.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Chumly said:
Everyone knows that 75 percent of undecideds are frauds. Republicans have a worse habit because they like to declare themselves Independant to pretend they are somehow giving a non biased opinion (see every conservative on this forum)
Click to expand...

What I've found is that a lot of them just vote Republican and declare themselves Libertarians despite supporting everything the Republicans do.

At least I got my question answered as to why Republican and conservatives never admit they lost and just declare the election is over whenever the clock strikes a number ending in "0"

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/10/romney-says-hes-winning-its-a-bluff.html

As I figured, just a weird psych game to push people into voting for the "winning team."
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Slime said:
PANIC!

The "trend lines in several key states favoring Romney" line made me laugh. CNN doesn't seem to just be going for the horse race narrative lately, but a barely subtle pro-Romney one. Earlier they had Wolf and his co-host double-teaming an Obama advisor for not being nice to Israel. Oh, how the formerly tolerable have fallen.
Click to expand...

Wolf Blitzer is also a former AIPAC lobbyist.

If there's one thing good that came out of this election, people (at least liberals) have stopped giving CNN the benefit of the doubt most of the time, and ditched it for msnbc or other news outlets.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Diablos said:
Continue to get dismissive, but it seems like Romney keeps gaining as time goes on. And the second debate clearly didn't do as much as we had hoped.
Click to expand...

You deserve every dismissive post you get

Obama leads in the W, MidW, and E but the South determines the election? GTFO with that nonsense.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Diablos said:
Continue to get dismissive, but it seems like Romney keeps gaining as time goes on. And the second debate clearly didn't do as much as we had hoped.
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You stress out a lot over your difficulty distinguishing between "seems like" and "is true that." Romney gained a fraction of a point in the national polling average today (which, as we've already established, is basically a useless metric), otherwise nothing changed. The second debate certainly didn't appear to have much effect, but there's a third debate to reckon with now, data from which we haven't seen.
 
M

markatisu

Member
pigeon said:
You stress out a lot over your difficulty distinguishing between "seems like" and "is true that." Romney gained a fraction of a point in the national polling average today (which, as we've already established, is basically a useless metric), otherwise nothing changed. The second debate certainly didn't appear to have much effect, but there's a third debate to reckon with now, data from which we haven't seen.
Click to expand...

The 2nd debate had a big effect, it stopped the bleeding of Obama. Without it Romeny would probably be up in other areas besides the South
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Mercury Fred said:
The plane touched down just before sunset. Mozambique. Hillary descended the metal steps onto the makeshift tarmac and breathed in the florid, humid air.

Glad to be away again, she thought. No Bill, no Chelsea, just me. Right then her Blackberry vibrated. She looked at the screen to see who was calling. M.

Hillary gazed over the horizon to see the blazing hot orange glow of the sun begin to sneak behind a thatchwork of palm trees and answered the phone.

"Michelle. Now this is a surprise. Thought you'd be making an appearance on the View about now."

She blurted it out without thinking, but her secret wish was, more than anything, that Michelle would-- no, don't say it, don't even let yourself think it...

"Hillary, do you think you could spare an evening... to talk?"

"Madame First Lady, I'm afraid I'm in Africa right now."

"Mozambique. I know. I heard. I'm here too. I-- I took a safari. To clear my head."

"Well that's an interesting choice. I hope you find some... big game. But I won't be able to join you, my schedule is quite full--"

"Hillary, I... I need you. I mean I need to see you." Her voice was raspy, breathless.

The Secretary of State took off her sunglasses and squinted at what was left of the sun.

"There's a speakeasy on Ilha de Moçambique. Be there at midnight tomorrow. I'll text you the address."

What am I doing, she thought? She shook away the doubt and closed her eyes as her lips parted slightly, turning up into the faintest suggestion of a smile.

to be continued...
Click to expand...

This deserves to be quoted for new page
 
D

Diablos

Member
pigeon said:
You stress out a lot over your difficulty distinguishing between "seems like" and "is true that." Romney gained a fraction of a point in the national polling average today (which, as we've already established, is basically a useless metric), otherwise nothing changed. The second debate certainly didn't appear to have much effect, but there's a third debate to reckon with now, data from which we haven't seen.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I hear you. I'm trying not to be so engaged. But I guess I'm just ready to fully accept the possibility that Obama may lose. The daily trackers can't continue to break towards Mitt, if they do through the weekend I'm going to brace for the worst. If not, the firewall should save his ass, and rightfully so.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Diablos said:
LOL @ Gallup. Obama approval at 51% but RV model is 51% R.
Click to expand...

That's the likely voters model. RV is a dead heat. Likely voters has some mystery method to chop off certain respondents.
 
I

ISOM

Member
Diablos said:
Yeah, I hear you. I'm trying not to be so engaged. But I guess I'm just ready to fully accept the possibility that Obama may lose. The daily trackers can't continue to break towards Mitt, if they do through the weekend I'm going to brace for the worst. If not, the firewall should save his ass, and rightfully so.
Click to expand...

You are really annoying.
 
C

codhand

Member
Mercury Fred said:
The plane touched down just before sunset. Mozambique. Hillary descended the metal steps onto the makeshift tarmac and breathed in the florid, humid air.

Glad to be away again, she thought. No Bill, no Chelsea, just me. Right then her Blackberry vibrated. She looked at the screen to see who was calling. M.

Hillary gazed over the horizon to see the blazing hot orange glow of the sun begin to sneak behind a thatchwork of palm trees and answered the phone.

"Michelle. Now this is a surprise. Thought you'd be making an appearance on the View about now."

She blurted it out without thinking, but her secret wish was, more than anything, that Michelle would-- no, don't say it, don't even let yourself think it...

"Hillary, do you think you could spare an evening... to talk?"

"Madame First Lady, I'm afraid I'm in Africa right now."

"Mozambique. I know. I heard. I'm here too. I-- I took a safari. To clear my head."

"Well that's an interesting choice. I hope you find some... big game. But I won't be able to join you, my schedule is quite full--"

"Hillary, I... I need you. I mean I need to see you." Her voice was raspy, breathless.

The Secretary of State took off her sunglasses and squinted at what was left of the sun.

"There's a speakeasy on Ilha de Moçambique. Be there at midnight tomorrow. I'll text you the address."

What am I doing, she thought? She shook away the doubt and closed her eyes as her lips parted slightly, turning up into the faintest suggestion of a smile.

to be continued...
Click to expand...

31yjy7jJL4L._SL500_AA300_.jpg
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Andrew Sullivan makes some time with the man in the mirror:

daily beast said:
He threw this election away. But even after that act of self-immolation, the race is still basically tied, with a tiny Obama advantage in the Electoral College. That tells me there may be more underlying strength in Obama's position than I am currently emotionally capable of accepting.
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http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/10/false-mittmentum.html

If Sully can do it, you can do it, guys.

Fallows also notes:

the atlantic said:
Since the second debate, and especially in the past three days, Republican commentators have been saying what the polls are not showing: that Romney has "momentum," that he's on an unstoppable roll, that their side is getting ready for an inevitable win. Anyone who has watched Fox, been on Republican email lists, or followed even "mainstream" "savvy" commentary has seen this shift. Michael Tomasky talks about this tone taking over the press "narrative" here....

In a way this is a perfect test case of the Michael Lewis Moneyball hypothesis. Apart from Silver's own background as a sports-stats analyst, we have an exceptionally clear instance of people judging from their experience, their "bones," their personal instinct, etc that things are going one way (like veteran scouts saying that a prospect "looks like a Big Leaguer"), while data (on-base efficiencies in one case, swing-state polls in another) point in the opposite direction.

I don't know who's right, but I note this as a moment of unusual clarity about two approaches to politics. Among the many things we'll learn two weeks from now (and in the assessment afterwards) is which of these approaches to political analysis has revealed a profound flaw.
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http://www.theatlantic.com/politics...-both-be-right-savvy-experts-vs-polls/263997/

I think that the Moneyball comparison tells you pretty much what you need to know. Guts don't vote.

I also think that maybe this is revelatory of who in this thread gets their news from which sources.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
saelz8 said:
Just voted. +1 Obama in Texas.

THAT POPULAR VOTE!
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You joke, but the Princeton Election Consortium now estimates that there's a near-25% chance of a split happening. :)

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/23/ro-mentum/

Today, the race is quite close. However, note this. In terms of the Electoral College, President Obama has been ahead on every single day of the campaign, without exception.

I would then give the following verdict: Indeed the race is close, but it seems stable. For the last week, there is no evidence that conditions have been moving toward Romney. There is always the chance that I may have to eat my words – but that will require movement that is not yet apparent in polls.

The popular vote is a different story. I estimate an approximately 25% chance that the popular vote and the electoral vote will go in opposite directions – a “Bush v. Gore scenario”. I regard this as a serious risk, since it would engender prolonged bitterness.
Click to expand...
 
T

ThisWreckage

Banned
For months, people on this site have been telling me that it would be a landslide Obama victory and I've maintained that it will go down to the wire. I still think that's the case. I think momentum is actually favoring Romney. He's surging in several states.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
So what does the race being close really mean?

Maybe I'm way off base but it seems like the race being close favors Obama more than Romney given that GOP turnout is more consistent anyways and younger voters who typically vote Obama are the type to blow off voting.

ThisWreckage said:
For months, people on this site have been telling me that it would be a landslide Obama victory and I've maintained that it will go down to the wire. I still think that's the case. I think momentum is actually favoring Romney. He's surging in several states.
Click to expand...

Really where
 
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