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[BertramCooper]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/theov...ics-TopStories+(News+-+Politics+-+Top+Stories)

Obama is winning by a mere 5% in one poll and the candidates are tied in another. Just last month, had a 10% lead in the very poll he is winning by 5% in now. So Romney has made grounds and that state could go either way.

I would almost be willing to do a ban bet that Romney will not win Ohio. Almost.

Dude has so much going against him here that I would be absolutely stunned if he manages to win.

 

[Veitsev]

DEAD HEAT

you people need to calm the fuck down

 

[BotoxAgent]

Andrew Sullivan makes some time with the man in the mirror:



http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/10/false-mittmentum.html

If Sully can do it, you can do it, guys.

Man, that article just wants me to punch Andrew in the face so hard right now

 

[Jackson50]

I watched last night's debate again. And I noticed a few interesting details I missed on my first viewing. One that surprised me was Romney's reference to Nunn-Lugar as an indication of our waning influence. First, the CTR represents a remarkably successful nonproliferation program with Russia. That's an odd reference for someone who characterizes Russia as our primary geopolitical foe. But aside from politics, Russia's withdrawal signifies their ascendant aspirations. The reliance on the U.S. was an embarrassment to the nation. Thus, their decision was reasonable, if not foreseeable, given their relative power. Obviously, we'd prefer to monitor the disposal of their relic stockpile of WMDs. But it also permits us to reapportion funding to other vulnerable areas. The threat of proliferation, whether chemical, biological, or nuclear, remains severe. I hope the Congress does not exploit this as an opportunity to reduce our already inadequate non-proliferation efforts.

 

[el retorno]

Hahaha Anderson Cooper is slamming Bob McDonnell for all the lies that Romney spouted last night. He keeps halfway admitting Obama is right and then pivoting.

Man, that article just wants me to punch Andrew in the face so hard right now

Twitter just lets us see peoples instant reactions they don't have time to compose themselve.

 

[Y2Kev]

All you surgers must be hella fun in bed

 

[pigeon]

^

What does this mean? What did I say that you're agreeing with? The odds of Romney getting a national move that matches the first one, given that that was mostly undecided Republican voters who were inevitably going to come over, and that he lost the other two debates, one pretty badly, are pretty poor, I think.

 

[Cheebo]

I seriously think Sullivan and diablos are the same

That reminds me back when some people were claiming Diablos and I must be alt accounts of the same person.

 

[el retorno]

Indiana Senate Candidate Mourdock said rape is something God intended.

At the final debate in the Indiana Senate race, held Tuesday night, Republican nominee Richard Mourdock explained his opposition to abortion in the cases of rape or incest. In the course of the explanation Mourdock suggested that rape should not be an exception to a ban on abortion, since rape pregnancies are themselves the will of God.

"You know, this is that issue for that every candidates for federal, or even state office, faces. And I, too, certainly stand for life," said Mourdock, after both Democrat Joe Donnelly and Libertarian Andrew Horning had identified as pro-life. "I know there are some who disagree, and I respect their point of view. But I believe that life begins at conception. The only exception I have, to have an abortion, is in that case of the life of the mother."

Mourdock then seemed to choke back tears, and continued: "I've struggled with it myself for a long time, but I came to realize that life is that gift from God. And even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen." (Emphasis added.)

Does this race have any chance of changing?

 

[Forever]

That reminds me back when some people were claiming Diablos and I must be alt accounts of the same person.

We haven't ruled that out.

 

[DragonSworne]

Mourdock said rape is something God intended.

Seems reasonable. Who can question god?

 

[RustyNails]

We are all alts of PD.

 

[thefro]

Mourdock said rape is something God intended.

Wow, that might actually get some traction even with the sleepy Indiana news media.

 

[teh_pwn]

First debates are more important than any of the ones that follow. Romney got a pretty big bump after the first debate because he dominated it. Obama dominated the third debate, but the damage was already done by that point. Romney positioning himself as some sort of centrist that can reach across party lines was brilliant because his campaign knows that he already has the conservative vote locked up.

The current data shows Obama winning confidently, and swing states aren't changing.

Look at the data yourself:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Or trending in key states, like:
Ohio
Iowa
New Hamsphire
Wisconsin


Where is the momentum over the last 2 weeks? I see no movement.

Edit: Damn, Veitsev did a much better version of my post.

 

[codhand]

OT spelled poligaf with two l's.
Edit beaten.

 

[apana]

The next few Ohio polls will determine the trajectory of this thread. Oh and I guess it will tell us something about the election as well.

 

[RDreamer]

Indiana Senate Candidate Mourdock said rape is something God intended.
Does this race have any chance of changing?

So... rape babies are a gift from god, but we should still thwart god's will to save a mother's life? I'm confused.

 

[worldrunover]

Indiana Senate Candidate Mourdock said rape is something God intended.


Does this race have any chance of changing?

Can't wait until he's on the Senate science and medicine committee next year!

 

[Forever]

First debates are more important than any of the ones that follow.

Bullshit bullshit bullshit bullshit bullshit.

There is no evidence, incidentally, that the second presidential debate is any less important than the first one. On average, it has moved the polls by 2.3 percentage points in one direction or another — almost exactly the same as after the first debate, which moved them by 2.4 percentage points on average.

The third debate, however, has often had a more muted impact. The only significant change in the polls following the third debate was in 1992, when Mr. Bush narrowed his deficit with Mr. Clinton, and that may well have reflected a case of reversion to the mean.

Read this and chill the fuck out.

 

[Y2Kev]

If this is all about MITTMENTUM, why isn't Obama and everyone in his crew coming out and saying how great things are going? It's cause they're losing 4sho

I'm so 4sho I'm 5sho

If they don't come out and say it it is because they are losing and if they do they are desperate so 5sho they are losing

(but really, Obama could have more than Messina say stuff like, "We love what we're seeing." Otherwise all you have is Chuck Todd talking about how close it is and how the Mitt camp thinks they've pulled even.)

 

[worldrunover]

OT spelled poligaf with two l's.
Edit beaten.

Haha, I get it.

Spoiler

poll-igaf

 

[teh_pwn]

I'll even be bold (or biased) enough to say that I think Obama will make tiny gains over the next 2 weeks, maybe even enough to turn over Virginia and Florida.

Why?

1. There's no debates or major events between now and election day.
2. Obama is campaigning hard and he does a better job than Romney does. Romney often takes breaks.
3. Obama's ground game is top notch.
4. Romney's platform is on thin ice in terms of substance, and the media has 2 weeks to take it apart. Without other major events, it would be bad for ratings not to.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Oops, didn't know tinypicture was banned.

 

[codhand]

Oops

 

[Darkgran]

LoL

Dick Morris was just on O'Reilly and said Mitt Romney is going to carry Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and MICHIGAN!!!

 

[Tim-E]

Guys, ThisWreckage isn't even worth responding to.

 

[gcubed]

That looks insanely clear. I need to watch that again

 

[Diablos]

We haven't ruled that out.

...

What does this mean? What did I say that you're agreeing with? The odds of Romney getting a national move that matches the first one, given that that was mostly undecided Republican voters who were inevitably going to come over, and that he lost the other two debates, one pretty badly, are pretty poor, I think.

I mostly agree with you, especially about Ohio; I do think Mitt may have potential to move a bit more, but it remains to be seen.

I find intrade more upsetting than anything else at the moment, tbh

 

[Officerrob]

LoL

Dick Morris was just on O'Reilly and said Mitt Romney is going to carry Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and MICHIGAN!!!

Dude is clueless

 

[pigeon]

I find intrade more upsetting than anything else at the moment, tbh

Don't worry. InTrade has been trading at a huge cut relative to 538 all year. There are a lot of financial wizards wasting a lot of money on their desperate hope that Romney doesn't win.

 

[Suikoguy]

I still laugh every time I see that map.
It's like it was made with a dartboard.

 

[teh_pwn]

I don't think that electoral prediction map resembles any election...like ever. The map looked completely different when the Democrats and Republicans effectively swapped places, but I don't think the NE and SE ever matched that much.

Except maybe Clinton, but that was due to Ross Perot eating up the GOP vote and Clinton/Gore being southerners.

 

[Diablos]

Clinton's maps were similar.

 

[Stinkles]

So, who here is voting more than once?

If youre worried about romney, then do something about it. Vote and vote often.

Once per gallon, twice per liter.

 

[Manmademan]

I still laugh every time I see that map.
It's like it was made with a dartboard.

Nothing about it makes any sense. How do these people have jobs?

 

[thecouncil]

o reilly is talking about how romney went soft during last nights debate because he was trying to appeal to women. (best excuse, i guess)

and these two women he has on are talking about how they dont like when the two men argued in the second presidential debate. or obama last night (something tells me they loved romneys performance in the first debate though?)

anyway, are women really that dainty? they cant handle the arguing? come on.

 

[East Lake]

I'm in WNY should I vote using a bunch of dead people's IDs in Ohio? I could stop the surge!

 

[AniHawk]

Bullshit bullshit bullshit bullshit bullshit.

i really hope history repeats here. i don't see why it shouldn't especially with last night's curbstomp. obama should get at least a 0.5-1.0 point bump, going by history.

 

[Kusagari]

Dude is clueless

My favorite thing about this map is how hilariously off he was on Indiana.

Louisiana was more likely for Obama to win according to him?

LMAO

 

[Officerrob]

I find intrade more upsetting than anything else at the moment, tbh

Important to note, however, that Intrade is an outlier vs. other prediction markets and sportsbooks

.

 

[Effect]

Was Dick Morris always this crazy and stupid? I know he was fired for the Clinton administration but was he like this then?

 

[Link]

Wow, anyone watching AC360? The poor girl that asked the equal pay question that lead to Romney's "binders full of women" comment is getting viciously slammed by the right with comments like Feminazi and ladyparts tool. Keep it classy, Republicans.

 

[Manmademan]

Wow, anyone watching AC360? The poor girl that asked the equal pay question that lead to Romney's "binders full of women" comment is getting viciously slammed by the right with comments like Feminazi and ladyparts tool. Keep it classy, Republicans.

You know a gaffe is sticking when...

 

[speculawyer]

I've never seen the word surge so misused.

Did you miss the "Santorum surges from behind" tweet? ;-)

 

[gkryhewy]

.

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/10/intrade-manipulation-fail.html

Intrade Manipulation Fail

On Monday night, after the debate, Barack Obama was leading Romney on Intrade by around 60 percent to 40 percent. But at around 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday morning, Romney surged to 48 percent. Was this evidence that the conventional wisdom was wrong? Had Romney actually won the debate handily? Or, alternatively, was the nosedive in the stock markets putting a dent in Obama’s re-election chances?

Neither. As economist Justin Wolfers pointed out on Twitter, the huge swing toward Romney appears to have been driven by a single trader who spent about $17,800 buying up Romney shares and pushing the Republican candidate’s chances on Intrade up to 48 percent. But the surge only lasted a few minutes before other traders whittled the price back down to what they saw as a more accurate valuation. Romney’s odds of winning are currently back at around 41 percent.

…As Wolfers pointed out, this mysterious trader ended up overpaying by about $1,250 for shares that quickly collapsed in value. Was this just someone who made a bad trade? Or was somebody trying to influence Intrade odds in order to sway perceptions of the race? And if so, was it worth $1,250 to jolt the markets for less than 10 minutes?

Plumer quotes me from 2008 discussing an earlier attempted manipulation:

This supports Robin Hanson’s and Ryan Oprea’s finding that manipulation can improve (!) prediction markets – the reason is that manipulation offers informed investors a free lunch. In a stock market, for example, when you buy (thinking the price will rise) someone else is selling (presumably thinking the price will fall) so if you do not have inside information you should not expect an above normal profit from your trade. But a manipulator sells and buys based on reasons other than expectations and so offers other investors a greater than normal return. The more manipulation, therefore, the greater the expected profit from betting according to rational expectations.

 

[Half and half]

Wow, anyone watching AC360? The poor girl that asked the equal pay question that lead to Romney's "binders full of women" comment is getting viciously slammed by the right with comments like Feminazi and ladyparts tool. Keep it classy, Republicans.

And other Republicans bury their heads in the sand and look away. Classy indeed.

 

[empty vessel]

This one's my favorite:

I am more concerned that he was raised by Communists, associated with Communists and has hired Communists for unaccountable positions. Communism does not belong in a Capitalist country. He has already admitted to cocaine and pot use, old story. What is not reported, besides the obvious school and passport records is how Communist have planned to destroy this country from within for decades.

Communists.

It's Mr. Robichaux from A Confederacy of Dunces, clearly.

 

[teh_pwn]

Wow, anyone watching AC360? The poor girl that asked the equal pay question that lead to Romney's "binders full of women" comment is getting viciously slammed by the right with comments like Feminazi and ladyparts tool. Keep it classy, Republicans.

Wolf Blitzer: I'm going to have to leave it there and call it a tie.

 

[RDreamer]

o reilly is talking about how romney went soft during last nights debate because he was trying to appeal to women. (best excuse, i guess)

and these two women he has on are talking about how they dont like when the two men argued in the second presidential debate. or obama last night (something tells me they loved romneys performance in the first debate though?)

anyway, are women really that dainty? they cant handle the arguing? come on.

I love how sexist some of those analyses get. It's really pretty shameful.

 

[speculawyer]

LoL

Dick Morris was just on O'Reilly and said Mitt Romney is going to carry Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and MICHIGAN!!!

Why do they even bother putting him on? Have they no shame? Aren't the embarrassed that he makes such terrible predictions that never come true? Is have a former Clinton guy that shills for the GOP now that good that they keep putting him on no matter what inaccurate garbage he spews?