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[Forever]

For months, people on this site have been telling me that it would be a landslide Obama victory and I've maintained that it will go down to the wire. I still think that's the case. I think momentum is actually favoring Romney. He's surging in several states.

Which ones?

 

[Raine]

For months, people on this site have been telling me that it would be a landslide Obama victory and I've maintained that it will go down to the wire. I still think that's the case. I think momentum is actually favoring Romney. He's surging in several states.

Like?

 

[GhaleonEB]

Diablos + cheebs

I see graphs like this:

Just for the record.

"and by the way the math in my plan adds up."

And remember that the general level of terror from them in particular is flat across the entire horizon. Sky is falling. Always has been. Always will be.

 

[johnsmith]

God I hate liberals. Obama curb stomped Romney during last night's debate. He's up in the state polls, and you guys are still panicking. If this was an actual tossup or god forbid Obama was actually losing, I don't even know how you'd handle it.

 

[ISOM]

For months, people on this site have been telling me that it would be a landslide Obama victory and I've maintained that it will go down to the wire. I still think that's the case. I think momentum is actually favoring Romney. He's surging in several states.

What states is he surging you saying it based on your opinion doesn't mean shit, people here actually update with state polls almost everyday.

 

[Kinvara]

Oh man, the comments on that page.

Wow.

This one's my favorite:

I am more concerned that he was raised by Communists, associated with Communists and has hired Communists for unaccountable positions. Communism does not belong in a Capitalist country. He has already admitted to cocaine and pot use, old story. What is not reported, besides the obvious school and passport records is how Communist have planned to destroy this country from within for decades.

Communists.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Like?

It's the "I'm winning" effect in action. He just says he's surging and has momentum so much people keep believing that its completely true even though he stopped gaining significant momentum like two weeks ago and its mostly just stagnant.

 

[ISOM]

God I hate liberals. Obama curb stomped Romney during last night's debate. He's up in the state polls, and you guys are still panicking. If this was an actual tossup or god forbid Obama was actually losing, I don't even know how you'd handle it.

Did you not read the previous posts? The majority of people here are not panicing and are pretty assured of an obama victory it's a couple of specific posters that are in crisis mode everyday. It's annoying and tiring..

 

[Red Blaster]

God I hate liberals. Obama curb stomped Romney during last night's debate. He's up in the state polls, and you guys are still panicking. If this was an actual tossup or god forbid Obama was actually losing, I don't even know how you'd handle it.

It's only Diablol, Cheebs and PD the Phud Machine

 

[Baraka in the White House]

and you guys are still panicking.

Diablos + Cheebs does not make a "you guys".

 

[ThisWreckage]

Like?

They have him neck to neck in Ohio after he was losing by 10% points just a couple of weeks ago. Romney will probably take NC, Florida, and Colorado. Virginia and Wisconsin are still in play.

 

[RustyNails]

It's only Diablol, Cheebs and PD the Phud Machine

cartoon soldier too

 

[Angry Grimace]

They have him neck to neck in Ohio after he was losing by 10% points just a couple of weeks ago. Romney will probably take NC, Florida, and Colorado. Virginia and Wisconsin are still in play.

Who's they and how are you defining neck and neck and when was this taken

 

[Kusagari]

They have him neck to neck in Ohio after he was losing by 10% points just a couple of weeks ago. Romney will probably take NC, Florida, and Colorado. Virginia and Wisconsin are still in play.

Wisconsin is not in play.

 

[teh_pwn]

Who's they

Obama

and how are you defining neck and neck and when was this taken

Bad news for.

 

[ISOM]

They have him neck to neck in Ohio after he was losing by 10% points just a couple of weeks ago. Romney will probably take NC, Florida, and Colorado. Virginia and Wisconsin are still in play.

There are a bunch of different polls out some of which have obama with a +5 lead in ohio so thinking one poll is fact is wrong and obama already has a significant lead in early voting also. Ohio is not going to romney unless he has like a significant advantage on election day voting.

 

[pigeon]

They have him neck to neck in Ohio after he was losing by 10% points just a couple of weeks ago.

First, I'd note that "neck-and-neck" is political code for "still losing, but by less." Next, I'd observe that your definition of "surging" is extremely atypical. Romney was definitely surging in Ohio two weeks ago. Then he stopped. He hasn't made any advances since immediately after the first debate. So when you move forward, then stop cold for two weeks, that's "surging" to you?

 

[johnsmith]

It's not just posters here, I'm also referring to Andrew Sullivan and Chris Matthews, etc. Andrew Sullivan is just embarrassing himself at this point.

 

[teh_pwn]

For months, people on this site have been telling me that it would be a landslide Obama victory and I've maintained that it will go down to the wire. I still think that's the case. I think momentum is actually favoring Romney. He's surging in several states.

I was one of those people, and I'm surprised that Romney got as far as he did.

Shortly after the first debate I posted several times that Romney's shift to the center wizardry using lies was a used up play card, and that he would get called out for it in subsequent debates. He has. Should the margins be higher? I think so, but the electoral map is solidly in Obama's favor and it hasn't changed in 2 weeks.

The polls haven't changed in key states in 2 weeks. Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. They all have stayed the same. One day the'll shift slightly to Romney, the other to Obama.

 

[ThisWreckage]

Listen, don't get defensive. This election is going to be close. I don't see how anyone can dispute that. In some states, the states may even be decided by one or two key areas.

 

[ISOM]

It's not just posters here, I'm also referring to Andrew Sullivan and Chris Matthews, etc. Andrew Sullivan is just embarrassing himself at this point.

lol what did those two say if you don't mind my asking? I have no tv here unfortunately.

 

[Chumly]

They have him neck to neck in Ohio after he was losing by 10% points just a couple of weeks ago. Romney will probably take NC, Florida, and Colorado. Virginia and Wisconsin are still in play.

Lol so somehow Ohio is "neck and neck", Wisconsin is in play and yet Romney is winning Florida, Colorado and NC? Talk about redefining polls.

 

[Revolver]

It's the "I'm winning" effect in action. He just says he's surging and has momentum so much people keep believing that its completely true even though he stopped gaining significant momentum like two weeks ago and its mostly just stagnant.

But his campaign seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train.

I'll be glad when the election is over. I've cast my vote and think Obama will win this, but the "librul media" are stressing me out man.

 

[Kusagari]

Polls have Florida closer than Ohio and yet everyone just assumes Romney has FL while Ohio's a tossup.

 

[codhand]

I'm sure Ed Shultz will clear it all up.

 

[darkside31337]

It's not just posters here, I'm also referring to Andrew Sullivan and Chris Matthews, etc. Andrew Sullivan is just embarrassing himself at this point.

Andrew Sullivan jumped off the cliff during the first debate. While it was happening.

And to be honest he was mainly correct, that the debate was in fact a disaster and he realized this early on while a lot of people, both media and non-media alike, refused to admit what was happening before their very eyes until they got some data to back it up.

Of course he was exaggerating the overall effect just a tad bit. But he was a lot better than the folks with the blinders on completely.

 

[Y2Kev]

Andrew Sullivan makes some time with the man in the mirror:



http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/10/false-mittmentum.html

If Sully can do it, you can do it, guys.

Fallows also notes:



http://www.theatlantic.com/politics...-both-be-right-savvy-experts-vs-polls/263997/

I think that the Moneyball comparison tells you pretty much what you need to know. Guts don't vote.

I also think that maybe this is revelatory of who in this thread gets their news from which sources.

How is it a tiny advantage?

 

[Raine]

They have him neck to neck in Ohio after he was losing by 10% points just a couple of weeks ago. Romney will probably take NC, Florida, and Colorado. Virginia and Wisconsin are still in play.

4 of those states have been competitive the whole election (I don't see how you can call Colorado for Romney). Ohio is so neck and neck that Romney has never led there. Wisconsin is pretty safe for Obama judging the latest polls for it. I'm not seeing where Romney is surging at.

 

[RDreamer]

I don't get why there's still a ton of chicken-littling anymore. The debates are over and it's highly likely nothing's going to change the election between now and then. The only thing that could possibly effect it was the last debate, and Obama did really well. There's no way he'll lose ground after that. Probably won't gain much, but the key thing is he isn't going to lose any. And he's already ahead or tied in enough states that you should be able to at least breath easy for a few days before going back to your hyperventilating.

 

[ThisWreckage]

I was one of those people, and I'm surprised that Romney got as far as he did.

Shortly after the first debate I posted several times that Romney's shift to the center wizardry using lies was a used up play card, and that he would get called out for it in subsequent debates. He has. Should the margins be higher? I think so, but the electoral map is solidly in Obama's favor and it hasn't changed in 2 weeks.

The polls haven't changed in key states in 2 weeks. Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. They all have stayed the same. One day the'll shift slightly to Romney, the other to Obama.

First debates are more important than any of the ones that follow. Romney got a pretty big bump after the first debate because he dominated it. Obama dominated the third debate, but the damage was already done by that point. Romney positioning himself as some sort of centrist that can reach across party lines was brilliant because his campaign knows that he already has the conservative vote locked up.

 

[HylianTom]

Hmm. This would be 6EVs closer.

Republican consultant predicts Obama, Heller will win Nevada

A long-time Republican political consultant said today he sees Nevada voters supporting President Obama on Nov. 6 while at the same time giving Republican Sen. Dean Heller a victory against Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley in the hard fought U.S. Senate race.

Pete Ernaut, president of government and public affairs for R&R Partners, said he believes there is an Obama-Heller voting bloc in Nevada.

“If Gov. Romney carries Nevada, without a doubt Heller will win the Senate race,” he said during an interview on the Nevada NewsMakers television show. “I don't think there is a Romney-Berkley voting bloc. But there is clearly an Obama-Heller voting bloc.

“And I actually made the prediction that I think the margins of victory will be similar,” Ernaut said. “That I think Obama will carry the state somewhere, one, three points, something like that. And I think that's about the margin of victory for Heller.”

http://www.recordcourier.com/article/20121023/NEWS/121029983/1062&ParentProfile=1049

Shocking, I know..

 

[codhand]

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

Intrade is overrated but useful. Same goes for 538. Both add value vs. most horse race coverage, but that's a low bar to clear.

.

 

[Darkgran]

Sorry in advance

 

[Godslay]

Listen, don't get defensive. This election is going to be close. I don't see how anyone can dispute that. In some states, the states may even be decided by one or two key areas.

Make a map and show us how close you think it will be.

 

[pigeon]

Listen, don't get defensive.

"Romney is surging."
"Where?"
"Ohio, et al."
"Well, that's factually inaccurate."
"Listen, don't get defensive."

You need to recalibrate something, man. The pattern I outlined for Ohio is national -- Romney gained after the first debate, then stalled out. There's no surge. It's not defensiveness to point out that your post is just wrong.

How is it a tiny advantage?

This is a big step for Sullivan, give him time. Two days ago he was convinced it was over and Romney was guaranteed to win.

 

[ThisWreckage]

Make a map and show us how close you think it will be.

And why would I do this? Several states are close and could go either way. I've already said that it's going to go down to the wire and I could see either one of them winning. My dream scenario would be a tie just for the drama.

 

[Angry Fork]

This one's my favorite:



Communists.

I wish that were true. I just want to tell them as a socialist that Obama is not what they think he is, he is a center right capitalist. But I do hope they see the real face of a revolutionary communist within their lifetime. They'll beg for someone like Obama as an alternative.

 

[gcubed]

I seriously think Sullivan and diablos are the same

 

[Forever]

It's not just posters here, I'm also referring to Andrew Sullivan and Chris Matthews, etc. Andrew Sullivan is just embarrassing himself at this point.

Don't think I can ever take Andrew Sullivan seriously again after reading some of his latest shit. He's like Diablos with a soap box.

 

[ThisWreckage]

"Romney is surging."
"Where?"
"Ohio, et al."
"Well, that's factually inaccurate."
"Listen, don't get defensive."

You need to recalibrate something, man. The pattern I outlined for Ohio is national -- Romney gained after the first debate, then stalled out. There's no surge. It's not defensiveness to point out that your post is just wrong.



This is a big step for Sullivan, give him time. Two days ago he was convinced it was over and Romney was guaranteed to win.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/theov...ics-TopStories+(News+-+Politics+-+Top+Stories)

Obama is winning by a mere 5% in one poll and the candidates are tied in another. Just last month, had a 10% lead in the very poll he is winning by 5% in now. So Romney has made grounds and that state could go either way.

 

[Link]

CNN reporting that Romney is seeing major backlash in Ohio for his OpEd in the NYT about letting Detroit go bankrupt. Guess people did look it up.

Bad news for Obama.

 

[RustyNails]

Don't think I can ever take Andrew Sullivan seriously again after reading some of his latest shit. He's like Diablos with a soap box.

Yep.

Conservatives like to look at people like Sullivan and laugh. He is so fucking embarrassing, losing his shit like that. You will never see Eric Erickson do something like that.

 

[Diablos]

I seriously think Sullivan and diablos are the same

I'm not. I have no alts. Please proceed, gcubed

 

[pigeon]

Obama is winning by a mere 5% in one poll and the candidates are tied in another. Just last month, had a 10% lead in the very poll he is winning by 5% in now. So Romney has made grounds and that state could go either way.

You said "Romney is surging in Ohio." Factually wrong. Romney has absolutely made gains in Ohio, that's what I posted. But there's no "momentum." And Obama's lead is very consistent at 2-3 points and has been since after the first debate. Sure, he could lose if he lost 2-3 points. All Romney would need is a national shift in his direction about the same size as the one he already got. If that happens, absolutely, Obama is screwed.

 

[gcubed]

I'm not. I have no alts. Please proceed, gcubed

Sullivan's not your alt, diablos is

 

[Godslay]

And why would I do this? Several states are close and could go either way. I've already said that it's going to go down to the wire and I could see either one of them winning. My dream scenario would be a tie just for the drama.

Fair enough. Third party voter for sure.

 

[Diablos]

You said "Romney is surging in Ohio." Factually wrong. Romney has absolutely made gains in Ohio, that's what I posted. But there's no "momentum." And Obama's lead is very consistent at 2-3 points and has been since after the first debate. Sure, he could lose if he lost 2-3 points. All Romney would need is a national shift in his direction about the same size as the one he already got. If that happens, absolutely, Obama is screwed.

^

 

[jamesinclair]

So, who here is voting more than once?

If youre worried about romney, then do something about it. Vote and vote often.

 

[Y2Kev]

I've never seen the word surge so misused.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

I've never seen the word surge so misused.