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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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S

Sirpopopop

Member
If you want to draw out Republicans on GAF, you should start a thread on California.

I've noticed that they dominate discussions in those threads. Those are the threads where they come in packs.

"TAXES ARE BAD! REGULATION IS BAD! ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION IS BAD! INNER CITY SCHOOLS WASTE MONEY!"
 
M

Mackenzie 92

Member
DasRaven said:
Well now you know at least 2 more (me and the wife) and here's a few thousand more:
http://p.twimg.com/A45mcpbCMAAnRBH.jpg[IMG]
(Carmona/Clinton rally @ A.S.U.)[/QUOTE]



Yeah, I lived in a military borderish town, so y'know.

Anyway, I mainly just meant that it's nowhere close to a swing state. At least not yet, that may change in the next few elections.
Click to expand...
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
AlteredBeast said:
I am shocked that Republicans haven't realized how absolutely screwed they are going forward in national elections. They can exist as a local party and still win the south, surburban areas, and rural parts of the country, but unless they start being an inclusive party, they are going to go the way of the Whigs and such.
Click to expand...

I would have thought this election would disprove that. Elections are determined by business cycles. When the economy is good, the incumbent party does well - when thinks sink, the challenger does well. Obama is sort of in the middle right now: the economy isn't good but it isn't horrible per se. That mixed with demographic leads and the historic level of enthusiasm he garners in his supporters makes him a potent incumbent.

It's not ridiculous to think Iowa could go red in the future, as could Colorado and Virginia. Republicans simply need a good candidate that inspires their base while not angering minorities. Like Jeb Bush
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Some fun numbers:

If every state clocks in at precisely the predicted results on 538 today, Obama wins 303-235.

If Romney gets a one-point bump in every single swing state, Obama wins 281-257.

If Romney gets a two-point bump in every single swing state, Obama wins 271-267.

These numbers do not include the PPP numbers, which currently suggest the possibility of a 1-2 point gain for Obama across the swing states. If Obama outperforms his polls by 2 points? 332-206.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
AlteredBeast said:
I am shocked that Republicans haven't realized how absolutely screwed they are going forward in national elections. They can exist as a local party and still win the south, surburban areas, and rural parts of the country, but unless they start being an inclusive party, they are going to go the way of the Whigs and such.
Click to expand...

It's so weird, West Virginia hates national democrats and hasn't voted for one since 1996, but nearly every state office and every single one in my county is ran by a large democratic machine. In most local elections Republicans don't even run because the democrats completely run the show. West Virginia always has two democrat senators, the southern coal region has elected the same House Rep. for 30 years, and the governor and other state executive positions are universally democrat and are not expected to change this year.
 
E

Eidan

Member
Link said:
Wolf Blitzer just said that even though polls show Obama "with a slight edge" in Ohio, Romney leads with Independents, and if that holds, he'll win the state.

How does it feel to sell out, CNN?
Click to expand...

WolfBlitzer_RS_20080706_01.jpg


Ain't no stoppin him now.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Tim-E said:
It's so weird, West Virginia hates national democrats and hasn't voted for one since 1996, but nearly every state office and every single one in my county is ran by a large democratic machine. In most local elections Republicans don't even run because the democrats completely run the show. West Virginia always has two democrat senators, the southern coal region has elected the same House Rep. for 30 years, and the governor and other state executive positions are universally democrat and are not expected to change this year.
Click to expand...

West Virginia Democrats are more conservative than NY Republicans. It's not that surprising.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Link said:
I'm not the hugest fan of MSNBC's unabashed left-wing slant, but with CNN pulling all their shit, it's the only choice I have left.
Click to expand...
MSNBC doesn't claim to be a News channel with Maddow, O'Donnell, Schultz, etc. Those are left-wing opinion shows. They include news in them but news selected by their left-leaning hosts.

But 'CNN' means Cable News Network. Fox News puts the 'Fox News' logo in the corner while running bile like Hannity & O'Reilly.

I think it is fine for people to spew whatever opinions they have. I just wish the cable 'news' channels would follow two simple rules:
1) Don't label opinion shows as "news" at all. They are not news.
2) In your opinion shows MAKE SURE YOUR FACTS ARE ACCURATE. Spin the news any way you want. Just don't make shit up.
 
R

Red Blaster

Member
MSNBC during the day feels really different from MSNBC during primetime

also I distinctly remember Chris Mathews being way more conservative back in 2004 but now the dude fucking loves Obama and would probably cry if he doesn't get re-elected
 
Dude Abides

Dude Abides

Banned
Red Blaster said:
MSNBC during the day feels really different from MSNBC during primetime

also I distinctly remember Chris Mathews being way more conservative back in 2004 but now the dude fucking loves Obama and would probably cry if he doesn't get re-elected
Click to expand...

Matthews hated the Clintons for a long time, maybe still does, and that made him move rightward, or at least appear to be doing so.
 
G

gcubed

Member
so since PPP gets a full weighting on 538, there is a new game to play. As of right now the Election day forecast is 71/29. What will it change to when all the PPP polls are put into the system?
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Dude Abides said:
Matthews hated the Clintons for a long time, maybe still does, and that made him move rightward, or at least appear to be doing so.
Click to expand...

Matthews is also the one who proclaimed Obama would be president the second after the 2004 DNC speech. He's been on the Obama train forever and Obama actually making his prediction come true probably only adds fuel to the fire.
 
B

Byakuya769

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Man, white people are so fucking condescending. The "Obama only won because he's black" meme is so stupidly persistent.
Click to expand...

What bothers me most about some in the right wing latching on to this is that it has some pretty nasty assumptions baked in.

1. Blacks are not smart enough to vote in line with their interest. (vote for BO because he's black / Democrats because they think blacks have to be dems)

2. It's not worth actually engaging them and trying to convince them that your party has better ways of helping their community
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
G

gcubed

Member
Kusagari said:
Matthews is also the one who proclaimed Obama would be president the second after the 2004 DNC speech. He's been on the Obama train forever and Obama actually making his prediction come true probably only adds fuel to the fire.
Click to expand...

he's got that tingle up his leg
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Byakuya769 said:
What bothers me most about some in the right wing latching on to this is that it has some pretty nasty assumptions baked in.

1. Blacks are not smart enough to vote in line with their interest. (vote for BO because he's black / Democrats because they think blacks have to be dems)

2. It's not worth actually engaging them and trying to convince them that your party has better ways of helping their community
Click to expand...
The GOP attracts voters the same way a douchebag at a club tries to pick up women - make them feel like shit, and that they're the best they can do.

However the "Obama only won because he's black!" is hardly exclusive to conservatives, especially in my generation, who isn't old enough to remember the shit Jesse Jackson had to endure when he ran for president, or how it was Clinton who solidified blacks as a Democratic base.
 
D

Duffyside

Banned
Just a thought, and I'm not sure anyone here would care, but what would a Romney defeat mean for the future of the Republican party? I didn't think they could come more moderate than McCain, and then poof, here's Romney, a man so moderate he doesn't even have any positions.

If even Romney can't win, do they try a moderate again? Or do they go down the scarier path?

Personally, I think it will be Christie/Rubio in 2016, and if even that fails, then the party moves towards a more libertarian platform, getting away from their poisonous anti-gay agenda, and even some of their religious foundations, though not entirely.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
Finding a moderate Republican candidate is absolutely the right way to go. Romney's problem is he hasn't clearly defined any of his positions, either socially or economically. He's shifted his stance so many times in an attempt to appeal to everyone from the extreme right to Independents. At this point, no one knows what he really stands for on anything.
 
B

Byakuya769

Member
Duffyside said:
Just a thought, and I'm not sure anyone here would care, but what would a Romney defeat mean for the future of the Republican party? I didn't think they could come more moderate than McCain, and then poof, here's Romney, a man so moderate he doesn't even have any positions.

If even Romney can't win, do they try a moderate again? Or do they go down the scarier path?

Personally, I think it will be Christie/Rubio in 2016, and if even that fails, then the party moves towards a more libertarian platform, getting away from their poisonous anti-gay agenda, and even some of their religious foundations, though not entirely.
Click to expand...

Romney is only moderate rhetorically in debates. In the primaries, his summer campaigning, and even in his continued stump speeches the guy is running a conservative platform to the right of Bush.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Duffyside said:
Just a thought, and I'm not sure anyone here would care, but what would a Romney defeat mean for the future of the Republican party? I didn't think they could come more moderate than McCain, and then poof, here's Romney, a man so moderate he doesn't even have any positions.

If even Romney can't win, do they try a moderate again? Or do they go down the scarier path?

Personally, I think it will be Christie/Rubio in 2016, and if even that fails, then the party moves towards a more libertarian platform, getting away from their poisonous anti-gay agenda, and even some of their religious foundations, though not entirely.
Click to expand...

Romney isn't running as a moderate.

He's abandoned his own health care bill
He's abandoned his belief on taxes
Etc etc etc

He has ran as a right wing conservative.

Should Romney lose, I expect one more go at far right stupidity before the party eats itself.
 
D

DasRaven

Member
Mackenzie 92 said:
Yeah, I lived in a military borderish town, so y'know.

Anyway, I mainly just meant that it's nowhere close to a swing state. At least not yet, that may change in the next few elections.
Click to expand...

Well, AZ isn't a swing state yet, but what will make it one is if Maricopa County shifts.
It is where the vast majority of our state's people are, thanks to PHX urban sprawl.
So, vote yes on 121 and at least we'll get better Republicans and Democrats in the General Election until the next few cycles pass and we become like NM/NV/CO are now.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
by itself the abc tracker isn't too noteworthy, however when added with other data points such as obama's nearly 8% drop in early vote turnout in VA compared to 2008 i think we could be at a danger point.
 
D

Duffyside

Banned
Byakuya769 said:
Romney is only moderate rhetorically in debates. In the primaries, his summer campaigning, and even in his continued stump speeches the guy is running a conservative platform to the right of Bush.
Click to expand...

I think calling him right of Bush is a little extreme. Moreover, his history before wanting to win the GOP nomination for president was as moderate as it gets. Like I said; he has no real positions. He's a chameleon, doing whatever is convenient for him to be elected.
 
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