PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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D

Duffyside

Banned
pigeon said:
The Atlantic had a fascinating article on this yesterday. Well, technically it was about Romney winning and how that could destroy the GOP, but I feel like it had some interesting stuff to say either way:



http://www.theatlantic.com/politics...s-a-romney-presidency-would-be-doomed/263918/

Personally, I don't agree exactly with some of the framing here -- for example, I think it's somewhat inaccurate to call Carter the end of the New Deal coalition. I think it's more correct to situation the rise of the Southern/Reagan coalition in 1968 -- which is why Carter, ten years behind the times, seemed so unready, and why he had to be Southern to win. (I'd note that you can see the intensification of radicalism and distrust of the existing state -- signs, in my view, of a decaying coalition -- both in the 1968 protests and in the Tea Party Revolution.)

However, in the general sense, I think the framing of national coalitions is an insightful one, and I think it's reasonable to say that the GOP is still running with its Southern/Reagan strategy (social reactionaries, mild and extreme libertarians, Randians, interventionists, working-class whites, and Southern cultural voters) against the increasingly ascendant Democratic coalition of women, minorities, GLBT, anti-interventionists, and social technocrats, the latter two groups heavily represented in the Millenials. Carville calls this the Rising American Electorate. I think of us as the Goonies. In either case, I would say it's clear that the Republicans will keep losing harder if they keep running as the party of the past -- but I also think it's hard for a party to reinvent itself quickly.

So, in answer to your question, I think it depends on where in the five stages of grief you think the GOP is. Either they'll run a Carter in 2016 -- that means, in this case, a person of color such as Rubio -- or they'll run a Mondale, which means Paul Ryan, basically. The question is how quickly they accept that their coalition is fragmenting. If Obama's successful in forcing tax increases using the fiscal cliff, I suspect it'll be sooner rather than later, which means Rubio.
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Haha, it's so strange to me that you've become less emotional as the election nears, whereas some others seem to be foaming at the mouth. This is a great post.

I do think Chris Christie throws a very large wrench into all these otherwise logical forecasts. The man's a phenomenon; you only see this much national coverage of a state's governor if that state is New York or California. I think that kind of charisma is hard to account for in making a prediction. Then again, it's too early to know if all of that likability only exists because he's been able to hide from the national spotlight, and once put on that stage it all crumbles.

Still, I'm eager for the GOP to abandon their anti-gay agenda. Though I've been eager for them to become more attractive to minorities my entire life, and we all know how that's worked out. I'm still stunned Rubio isn't the VP nominee. I think this race would be over in Romney's favor had that been the choice.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Chris Christie is not cut out for prime time. His Tony Soprano doesn't work outside the state, and he will drop with a thud in midwest.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Duffyside said:
Still, I'm eager for the GOP to abandon their anti-gay agenda. Though I've been eager for them to become more attractive to minorities my entire life, and we all know how that's worked out. I'm still stunned Rubio isn't the VP nominee. I think this race would be over in Romney's favor had that been the choice.
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Rubio would have done absolutely nothing except possibly assure Romney Florida.
 
D

Duffyside

Banned
Cyan said:
He must master his rage, or his rage will become his master.
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Oh dude, now you've got me started on something I did not want to share. You're so wrong.

These debates have shown me that what matters to "winning" isn't being calm, collected, rational, poised, above-the-mud, whatever. It's about being a dick, getting zingers, interrupting, etc. It's been really depressing.

Here's how I saw the debates.

Debate 1: Tie. I only gave nose to Romney because of how everyone else was reacting, but I thought it was incredibly close.

Debate 2: Tie.

Debate 3: Obama, but not by much.

VP Debate: Ryan by a lot.

But from what I could tell, everyone gave the edge in each debate handily to the guy who was more "aggressive," who had the "better zingers," or whatever. I hate that crap. Romney was making me cringe in the first debate from how much he was interrupting the moderator, talking too long, etc, but that was apparently his breakout performance.

Sigh... it was a depressing month of revelations about where this country is in terms of political discourse. Christie's rage is his most appealing feature, sadly.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
DxiED.png
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
And just so there isn't too much worry about these new polls, here's Nate Cohn on why he thinks Obama has Ohio almost locked up.

Interesting excerpt:
But Obama’s road to victory in Ohio starts with a strong showing among the African American voters that provided Bush with reelection eight years ago. It’s often overlooked just how much Obama gains over Kerry’s performance just by winning an outsized share of African Americans. According to the 2004 exit polls, Bush’s concerted efforts to appeal to African American voters—mainly on cultural issues—held Kerry to just 84 percent of the black vote. African American voters predictably swung decisively toward Obama, offering him 97 percent of the vote on Election Day with an additional point of black turnout.

In 2004, Bush won Ohio by 118,000 votes, but Obama’s gains among African American voters are sufficient to erase Kerry’s deficit without any changes in the composition of the electorate.
Click to expand...
 
S

SoulPlaya

more money than God
Someone, please tell Obama to stop coming to Chicago. At least, if you're going to come here, why leave during rush hour? Traffic is ridiculous here, because he's shut down Lake Shore Drive.
 
A

apana

Member
If Obama wins again then Republicans stand a pretty good chance of getting the Presidency in 2016 assuming Hillary doesn't run. I honestly think she is undecided, the race against Obama was hard on her.

Trump/Palin
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
apana said:
If Obama wins again then Republicans stand a pretty good chance of getting the Presidency in 2016 assuming Hillary doesn't run. I honestly think she is undecided, the race against Obama was hard on her.

Trump/Palin
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It depends on how Obama's presidency goes, really. If the economy picks up as the CBO is predicting, Obamacare gets implemented and works as intended, and there aren't any more wars or financial crises (certainly possible), whichever Democrat is nominated would have a decent shot. If it ain't broke don't fix it, after all.

Giant Panda said:
Are their any previous polls from these firms to compare to?
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Last polls were O+2 NV, O+5 CO.
 
D

Duffyside

Banned
Cyan said:
You have to wonder if that's a function of the increased polarization of the electorate. I mean, it kind of resembled Yahoo-comment fights. People want to see their guy get in a blow at the other team, even if it makes him look like a dick. They don't care, as long as he's punching hard.

I also sort of see it as a four iteration prisoner's dilemma. A debate will be shitty all-round if both candidates are on the attack, and decent if both are calm and rational, but if one is on the attack and the other calm, it'll be a big victory.

So we had Romney defect and Obama cooperate in the first debate, both defect in the second, and then Romney cooperate and Obama defect in the final debate.

Hopefully future elections will be in a less hostile climate, and there'll be more cooperating.


But this is all kind of an aside. What I meant by that comment was that Christie is quite likeable, but sometimes gets himself into trouble when he loses his temper with ordinary people. That's a great way to erode your likeability in an awful hurry. If he were a presidential candidate and had one of those moments, it'd be splashed all over the news. In short, if he wants to be a viable candidate, he needs to figure out how to stop having those moments.
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Yeah, it's definitely due to the shift for society at large. They are just reacting to how the electorate is; angrier with every year. I didn't think anyone could be hated more than Clinton, then 2000 came, then Bush policies, and somehow Obama is hated almost as much. Angrier every year.

Though I disagree with you saying Christie losing his temper with an ordinary citizen works against him. Every time I've seen it it's been bookended with chuckling media coverage of "that's our Christie!" They don't care if it's an ordinary citizen. It's the interneterization (new word coin it!) of the country. Whatever makes the funniest youtube video wins.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
RustyNails said:
No single poll has Romney lead except that Fox one.

538 forecast update will be glorious.
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Rasmussen, Gallup, Reuters/Ipsos, ABC/Wash Post daily trackers all had Romney leading. Nate Silver this week claimed ABC/Wash Post was the best pollster in the field so their Romney might effect things a bit.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
AniHawk said:
nate silver had them at +3

20fivethirtyeight-poll-graf-custom1.png


that was june though.
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He recently noted that PPP's lean is down to about half a point towards Dems.

Marist NV poll was +2 in the end of September, so +3 confirms its untouchable status. Even in CO isn't great -- polling there is very tight -- but it's not bad. Their last poll there was +5 in mid-September.
 
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