PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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RustyNails
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National media is completely different than local media, especially the print media. He will be labelled as a bully, buffoon and arrogant in no time. What cyan is saying is true. He needs to change his persona in order to run.
RustyNails
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...but Obama is leading in 6 out of 8 swing states in averages?
el retorno
Member
They just mentioned these on air.
They show Obama up in Nevada then the panel all agrees: "Tied in both"
I kid you not.
that or four polls.
Ha to be a inside joke at this point.
Honestly, cheebs, why are you so negative? Do you get your jollies from being a buzzkill?
Byakuya769
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Sit down. We're going to explain the difference between national daily trackers and state polls.
el retorno
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I think it is, cause they later said "like we've been telling you its a tied race"
Yeah. Just gotta get the base to the polls. 3-1 and 2-1 lead with Hispanics in NV and CO respectively. Romney is going to live or die by the white vote
which isn't as significant as many make it out to be. losing by >1 point and winning the electoral college is extremely unlikely, both in simulations of the election and historically. granted, obama is still the favorite by a good margin, but the way people just ignore bad news is hilarious.
RustyNails
Member
Which ones matter, swing state polls or the daily trackers? Honestly tell me one good swing state poll today for Romney other than the +2 VA fox one. Do you think Romney is looking at the national polls and going "jiminy crickets, we got this in the bag fellas!"?
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Except you're referring to data which specifically points to the thing you're attempting to argue against.
Moreover, national polls in the aggregate aren't showing Romney up by 5 points or anything other than Ras and Gallup. I'm sure Romney IS saying that, but I'm also sure his internal camp members are not pleased with the numbers right now - they aren't actually stupid.
Byakuya769
Member
On CNN.com their election center has two links side by side.
Romney leading in N.C. | Ohio edge?
Of course you click the link and see that Obama is leading by 5 in Ohio. While the NC link is CNN explaining that they are shifting NC to lean Romney with no display of the margin in their polls.
Romney leading in N.C. | Ohio edge?
Of course you click the link and see that Obama is leading by 5 in Ohio. While the NC link is CNN explaining that they are shifting NC to lean Romney with no display of the margin in their polls.
You're absolutely right, which is why it's extremely likely that Obama's clear electoral college win will translate into a 1-2% popular vote edge on election day. The national trackers (and the actual popular vote) are much more likely to move toward the state polls than the other way around.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Because early voting+OFA. I think the GOTV could blow Romney out the water if Hispanics show up.
IMO a tie in CO or VA probably equals an Obama victory
The Librarian
Banned
This is important:
Live and breathe the tracking polls.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
yes if this thread has one big problem it's that it doesn't panic enough
Thing is. Losing by 3 pts nationally and 3 pts in a single state is a HUGE statistical difference with 2 weeks to go..
Question about this: He doesn't go in and change that lean, because I know he doesn't manually change anything about his model. But does his model change it by itself based on something, or are PPP's polls still going in with a hard Dem lean?
RustyNails
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I wish we can just freeze chicken littles till the election night.
Black Mamba
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Obama is leading in RAND, IDB/TIPP, Gallup Registered, google consumer surveys, and PPP's daily tracker.
Romney is leading in Gallup LV, Ras, ABC, Reuters/IPSOS daily tracker.
RAND, Gallup, and PPP have shifted towards Obama the last 2 days. ABC towards Romney. The rest have held steady.
The race nationally is tied or slight lean Obama based on the House Leans. Stop acting like Romney has had great national polling. RCP leaves out a lot of the national polling.
Romney is leading in Gallup LV, Ras, ABC, Reuters/IPSOS daily tracker.
RAND, Gallup, and PPP have shifted towards Obama the last 2 days. ABC towards Romney. The rest have held steady.
The race nationally is tied or slight lean Obama based on the House Leans. Stop acting like Romney has had great national polling. RCP leaves out a lot of the national polling.
the "data" are polls. in actual elections, that kind of spread simply doesn't happen. i'm not arguing that the disparity is bound to be resolve in the direction of romney (or even favored mind you), but calling polls data against it doesn't really work.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
those delicious ratings
We also already had plenty of laws clearly defining the legal limits for abortion, its funding, etc. Hasn't stopped legislators all over the US from working feverishly over the past couple of years to try to pass hundreds of bills to further clarify and specify those laws. At the very least, why not require the father to also view a transvaginal ultrasound? That just seems the logical conclusion if we're going to justify everything with "God's will".
The Librarian
Banned
Remember: Nate Silver said ABC/Wapo was the best pollster in the field.
Just in case you guys missed that the first few times.
Just in case you guys missed that the first few times.
He said he hates seeing polls retweeted and to focus on averages except for one exception, he is fine with it for abc/wash post since they are the best tracker! So says the Silver
The Librarian
Banned
Cheebs, I love you. You crack me up.
Not necessarily. I'm just pointing out multiple paths to 270.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Obama is only down 1 point in it, I wouldn't freak out over it.
Matthews claims to be a centrist and acts like he has a man crush on BIll these days.
Black Mamba
Member
He did not say to ignore averages for ABC. He just said ABC/WaPo is a good pollster.
Good pollsters still get it very wrong one out of 20 polls. They're off the mark by 2 percentage points very often, as well.
Don't read too much into it. Today has been a strong day with the state polls and some other trackers that will cancel out ABC for Obama. Expect his numbers to go up on the model.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Oh snap. Romney has won the election, guys.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Also it's disingenuous to dismiss an entire days worth of polls and focus on the ABC one because it's "the best poll." A poll that shows Obama down 1 point, within the margin of error, I might add...
Obama had a good day today and further secured states like NV/WI while doing well in CO/VA too
ryutaro's mama
Member
What did I miss today, fellas? I saw on 538my that Obama is back up to 71% to win it. Was there more bad news for Obama?
Goddamnit, PD - stop breaking your character.
Why CO and NV are so important
That would be lolworthy to see Obama win without OH, FL, or VA
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Besides, ABC/WaPo reports its numbers by rounding up and down anyways. It was 47-48 on Monday and that number was actually 47.45-47.55 or something. It's all in the range of typical noise you get running a poll that often.
Washington Post just ran the election. Romney's already installing clones of Clarence Thomas in every position of his cabinet and SCOTUS.
Washington Post just ran the election. Romney's already installing clones of Clarence Thomas in every position of his cabinet and SCOTUS.
ABC poll is 50-47. Besides that, I agree with you
Black Mamba
Member
That's actually yesterday's update. Waiting on today's which should improve it a bit more.
Good polls out of Colorado, Nevada, NC, and Va for Obama today. Even Florida not bad (Romney +1).
Obama was down 1 yesterday, it's 3 today. That's the point. And Romney broke 50 percent
Officerrob
Banned
Is shows Obama down 3
Fenderputty
Banned
Am I mistaken or was that three PD posts in a row that weren't doom & gloom troll posts?
Except he was wrong. It was 1 yesterday.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Cheebs being the antithesis of Heavy when it comes to the Lakers
PD trying to bait, switch, bait and switch again when it comes to trolling
Me being rejected by Dax
Diablo running around going O THE NOZE!!!
All with some hopium mixed in
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