He's begun to fight the insanity, he's coming back to us.
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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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He's begun to fight the insanity, he's coming back to us.
Forget FDR. I've long extolled Obama's ground game, but it pales in comparison to Tammany Hall. The strength of their ground game is unparalleled in American history.
Maybe. It's possible.
Not to extenuate Obama's record, I've criticized him harshly on certain issues, but the problem transcends any single person. The problem is systemic. Drum correctly raises the point on institutional and bureaucratic constraints. And that is the cardinal problem. Our system is structured to favor militaristic responses. The lack of support from the Democrats, presuming they actually bucked Obama's plan, was a function of the established protocol. We rely on military force because it seems expedient. But we cannot afford to rely on short-term, myopic policies. We're not actually solving the problem.
He's just losing discipline and breaking character.
Officerrob
Banned
Is Intrade being wacky again? Obama's chance to win Colorado is up $1.29 (+29.3%) today
Black Mamba
Member
Ignores the "probably vote" in the ABC/WAPo poll. That's their criteria. I'd feel better if it included the "probably vote" as LV in the model.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_20121024.html
Also includes leaners, not just definite votes for that guy. I wish it had region breakdown.
I wouldn't be worried about ABC. Like I said, I think it will start coming back to Obama, anyway.
Byakuya769
Member
"Maybe if I switched it up my avatar bet will be forgotten."
Anyways, these are the best numbers for Obama right now
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner
If those hold and he loses, a LOT of people will lose a LOT of money lol
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner
If those hold and he loses, a LOT of people will lose a LOT of money lol
The Librarian
Banned
I didn't reject you, sweetie. Rin Tin Tim proclaimed me "taken" then offered himself up. And need I remind you that you embraced him without a moment's hesitation.
Yup.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
But again, it's not meaningful unless there was some event that would precipitate such movement. The reality is that nobody cares about or even understands Benghazi-gate.
You mean like in terms of being President/CEO of some corporation?
I cast my ballot today, so he's +1. But I doubt he wins.
2 or 3 good polls for him there today
I think these likely voter questions are kind of dumb. The most accurate way is to ask if they voted in past elections, if they know their polling place and if they intend to vote. All this 50-50 or "probably" is dumb
speculawyer
Member
But when translated into actual useful information . . . I'm assuming Obama leads the east, the west, the Mid-west, and it is getting completely trounced in the south.
The national-tracker polls seem to be catnip for the news media to keep people interested in the 'close race'. Go ask Nate Silver & Sam Wang about the electoral situation . . . well, Obama has lead the whole time.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Really, my guess is that the formulations of "likely" are what's causing the yo-yo variations in national averages. Straight up polling isn't indicating some kind of Romney surge.
The Librarian
Banned
I want to see a Jackson50 troll post before this election is over.
Interesting thing I wanted to bring up earlier today in this thread but couldn't due to reading on my phone:
Gallup is sampling heavily in the south, in theory because the most recent census showed the south having a larger percentage of population.
This makes sense to a point, but it forgets one key fact: The south is home to many of the worst voter turnout states in the nation.
In 2000 the national average was 54.2%. These are the states that performed worse than the national average:
Hawaii 44.2%
Nevada 45.2%
Arizona 45.6%
Georgia 45.8%
West Virginia 46.6%
South Carolina 47.0%
Arkansas 47.9%
District of Columbia 48.3%
New Mexico 48.5%
Mississippi 49.1%
Texas 49.2%
Indiana 49.3%
Oklahoma 49.9%
Tennessee 49.9%
North Carolina 50.7%
Alabama 51.6%
Kentucky 52.2%
Utah 53.8%
Virginia 54.0%
Pennsylvania 54.1%
Rhode Island 54.2%
Now 2004, with a national average of 60.1%:
Hawaii 48.2%
South Carolina 53.0%
Arkansas 53.6%
Texas 53.7%
West Virginia 54.1%
Arizona 54.1%
District of Columbia 54.3%
Indiana 54.8%
Nevada 55.3%
Mississippi 55.7%
Georgia 56.2%
Tennessee 56.3%
Alabama 57.2%
North Carolina 57.8%
New York 58.0%
Oklahoma 58.3%
Rhode Island 58.5%
Kentucky 58.7%
California 58.8%
Utah 58.9%
New Mexico 59.0%
In 2008 the national average for voter turnout was 61.8%. Here are the states that voted worse than that:
Hawaii 48.8%
West Virginia 49.9%
Arkansas 52.5%
Texas 54.1%
Oklahoma 55.8%
Utah 56.0%
Arizona 56.7%
Tennessee 57.0%
Nevada 57.0%
Kentucky 57.9%
South Carolina 58.0%
New York 59.0%
Indiana 59.1%
Alabama 60.8%
California 60.9%
New Mexico 60.9%
Mississippi 61.0%
Louisiana 61.2%
District of Columbia 61.5%
Consistent under-performance by nearly all of the southern states, some by large numbers. That includes Texas consistently under performing the national average by at least 5 points. Meanwhile the northeast and the blue midwest states are the ones that turn out the best.
So not weighting a likely voter model to adjust for this but weighting it to adjust for census data is creating inaccurate data out of the gate.
Data taken from here by the way:
http://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm
Gallup is sampling heavily in the south, in theory because the most recent census showed the south having a larger percentage of population.
This makes sense to a point, but it forgets one key fact: The south is home to many of the worst voter turnout states in the nation.
In 2000 the national average was 54.2%. These are the states that performed worse than the national average:
Hawaii 44.2%
Nevada 45.2%
Arizona 45.6%
Georgia 45.8%
West Virginia 46.6%
South Carolina 47.0%
Arkansas 47.9%
District of Columbia 48.3%
New Mexico 48.5%
Mississippi 49.1%
Texas 49.2%
Indiana 49.3%
Oklahoma 49.9%
Tennessee 49.9%
North Carolina 50.7%
Alabama 51.6%
Kentucky 52.2%
Utah 53.8%
Virginia 54.0%
Pennsylvania 54.1%
Rhode Island 54.2%
Now 2004, with a national average of 60.1%:
Hawaii 48.2%
South Carolina 53.0%
Arkansas 53.6%
Texas 53.7%
West Virginia 54.1%
Arizona 54.1%
District of Columbia 54.3%
Indiana 54.8%
Nevada 55.3%
Mississippi 55.7%
Georgia 56.2%
Tennessee 56.3%
Alabama 57.2%
North Carolina 57.8%
New York 58.0%
Oklahoma 58.3%
Rhode Island 58.5%
Kentucky 58.7%
California 58.8%
Utah 58.9%
New Mexico 59.0%
In 2008 the national average for voter turnout was 61.8%. Here are the states that voted worse than that:
Hawaii 48.8%
West Virginia 49.9%
Arkansas 52.5%
Texas 54.1%
Oklahoma 55.8%
Utah 56.0%
Arizona 56.7%
Tennessee 57.0%
Nevada 57.0%
Kentucky 57.9%
South Carolina 58.0%
New York 59.0%
Indiana 59.1%
Alabama 60.8%
California 60.9%
New Mexico 60.9%
Mississippi 61.0%
Louisiana 61.2%
District of Columbia 61.5%
Consistent under-performance by nearly all of the southern states, some by large numbers. That includes Texas consistently under performing the national average by at least 5 points. Meanwhile the northeast and the blue midwest states are the ones that turn out the best.
So not weighting a likely voter model to adjust for this but weighting it to adjust for census data is creating inaccurate data out of the gate.
Data taken from here by the way:
http://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm
Yep, the RV stuff is pretty much the same. That said, Team Obama has to turn their people out
This is why I think a lot of people assuming some South will rise again movement will help defeat Obama are flat out wrong. Yes many Southerners hate Obama, but they also hate the Government and do not take part of the process. Only reason Midterms often go to their whims is because regular people who make up the electorate opt out.
Byakuya769
Member
So you can out it?
He's sort of like the announcer in Halo. And he's on Halo 4 mode this cycle.
speculawyer
Member
Isn't that what you just witnessed?
Thanks! I'm mostly for whatever improves discourse, so I'm trying to get angry less (or at least only with people who are terrible at conversation). It helps that I think Obama's winning and America's going to become a socialist utopia, too.
It's possible. Honestly, I don't know anything about Chris Christie! I think there's a good possibility that the GOP wins in 2016, but I think that if they do, they'll do so by aggressively appealing to some aspect of the new Democratic coalition. Christie could probably sell himself as a pragmatic technocrat. If he did that, and he shed some of more reactionary elements of the GOP as a result, then maybe he could speed up the GOP's reinvention.
Well, if I'm right, you should hopefully get your wish pretty soon!
I suspect that it'll look pretty data-driven and futuristic -- that's why I think that technocrat element to the coalition is so important. (And since technocrats go hand in hand with wonks, this is part of why Paul Ryan was the GOP's Great White Hope.) Obamacare is Obama's biggest victory, and it's founded on the principle that social reforms, if coupled with evidence-based market regulations, will pay for themselves; essentially, that we're at a point on the socialist Laffer curve where adding supports will make the free market MORE competitive. I'd like to see more of that, and I think it might sell reasonably well after a few years of Obamacare.
538 works with a series of constantly readjusted weights -- by pollster and by state, to name two tranches. Whenever the model gets new data, first it applies the current weight, then it makes the new average, then it measures how far off everybody is from the average (which is assumed to be accurate), then it adjusts everybody's weight to take into account their current distance from true. So a poll like Gallup's, which is a huge outlier, is not only adjusting the average, but increasing the assumed "lean" of Gallup so that if they become a consistent outlier it gets less attention over time. There might be some Robinsonizing, I don't really know.
I guess I could've just said "yes, it adjusts the weight," but I got carried away.
Officerrob
Banned
The Librarian
Banned
Nah. I'm genuinely interested what it'd be like. I want bar graphs and shit.
No. That was a Jackson50 joke post. I want a troll post.
...
Also, any PoliGAFers on Twitter? I'll follow you.
RockTurtle
Member
guys my mom, who HAS NO interest in any politics or anything aside from which supermarket to go buy her groceries in, suddenly comes in and says that the word on the street is obama is gonna loose due to the polls. do i still keep calm till next next tuesday?
i'm kinda low on hopium if someone as unhinged as her is mentioning this...
i'm kinda low on hopium if someone as unhinged as her is mentioning this...
Talking head on Fox says Nevada is most likely going to to go for Obama, Democratic machine is too strong. Other talking head says Republicans have a stronger get out the vote effort in Ohio than people realize, they have knocked on 300,000 doors. Final talking head says Colorado could go either way.
There are things that I'm noticing that make me wonder if the gender gap down here ("the South") has closed since last time. A fair number of women I know who have gone back-and-forth in their presidential voting patterns over the years are now all voting against Obama.
They don't think about politics all the time, and they don't hate him for the most part.. but hearing the men down here bitch bitch bitch like little whiny bitches over the past four years might've sunk-in a bit, and now more of them seem ready to give the new guy a chance.
also, re: Twitter >>> @HylianTom
The only social media I've given-into.
I don't post about politics very much at all (more about sports, life in NOLA, etc), but this might prove to be too irresistible. That, and I'll have to report entertaining real-life reactions.
They don't think about politics all the time, and they don't hate him for the most part.. but hearing the men down here bitch bitch bitch like little whiny bitches over the past four years might've sunk-in a bit, and now more of them seem ready to give the new guy a chance.
also, re: Twitter >>> @HylianTom
The only social media I've given-into.
I don't post about politics very much at all (more about sports, life in NOLA, etc), but this might prove to be too irresistible. That, and I'll have to report entertaining real-life reactions.
speculawyer
Member
I have @Speculawyer but I generally don't send out tweets, I just occasionally respond to other people's tweets. Any followers I have must be bots.
@Radikal_Dreamer
I'm kind of newer to the twitter universe. I mainly use facebook. But, since my job has me working twitter a bit and I want to learn I've been using it more and more.
The three of us are in this together. You forget that Amtrak Joe loves running...err riding trains.
--
I'm @timwiley on Twitter.
the Romney rallies are always packed and his slogans are full of lovable crap. " Big change", Obama is the cause of all the economic problems, Obama's campaign is getting smaller and reduced to petty attacks, etc. The kind of junk you say when your tax plan doesn't add up and your campaign ads are full of discredited lies.
My hopium balloon is popped. Romney 2012
My hopium balloon is popped. Romney 2012
We've got twelve days until election and this thread is full of Debbie Downers. I need to cope some how.
littleworm
Member
What the hell is going on? I read the last few pages and I'm still confused.
good polls -> panic
bad polls -> panic
someone's mom heard something at the grocery store
Hello Everyone,
There seems to be a fresh breeze of optimism at work these days. After the last debate (which the POTUS clearly won) our confidence seems to be returning. Yeah those national trackers are confusing, but today's state polls reflect the internals and all signs are pointing towards an Obama victory. OFA is practically shipping every democrat that lives in DC into VA these next few weeks to get the final push out.
For those of you who live in "swing" states, please get involved with GOTV efforts and bring this election home.
There seems to be a fresh breeze of optimism at work these days. After the last debate (which the POTUS clearly won) our confidence seems to be returning. Yeah those national trackers are confusing, but today's state polls reflect the internals and all signs are pointing towards an Obama victory. OFA is practically shipping every democrat that lives in DC into VA these next few weeks to get the final push out.
For those of you who live in "swing" states, please get involved with GOTV efforts and bring this election home.
Someones momma heard at the grocery store that Obama is going to lose. So it's panic time again.
Guys, make sure you get PhoenixDark's handle. Someone retweeted him once, so you just know his Tweets are awesome.
Me too.
I don't get this bloody thread. A few hours its Obama has it in the bag, few hours later its omg looks like Romney could take it and all sorts of hopium and doom and gloom back and forth. What the fuck is going on and why are these things not more accurate or correlating to one another?
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/24/assessing_the_ground_games.html
Big surprise there.
Well, wait.. I am a bit surprised that this came from Gergen.
Such is life here at PolliGAF. I personally lean towards the "Southern Skewing Theory" when it comes to national polls.
Half and half
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