Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
its funny how they try and deny it
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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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its funny how they try and deny it
guys my mom, who HAS NO interest in any politics or anything aside from which supermarket to go buy her groceries in, suddenly comes in and says that the word on the street is obama is gonna loose due to the polls. do i still keep calm till next next tuesday?
i'm kinda low on hopium if someone as unhinged as her is mentioning this...
where are you located?
also, the romney campaign is in 'no we're totally winning this, guys!' mode because they don't have a solid path to victory. the best ohio shows for them is a tie, and that's the best it's shown for them for the last three weeks.
the fact colorado is now a 'tie' according to fox news makes me think obama's ahead. nevada was a lost cause for romney a few weeks ago, but it's good to hear acknowledgment on it.
ohio is lean-toward-likely obama
virginia is in tossup mode
florida is slight lean romney
nc is lean romney
iowa is lean obama
nh is in tossup mode
colorado is slight lean obama
303 evs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFh0J8Ph18U
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/24/assessing_the_ground_games.html
Big surprise there.
Well, wait.. I am a bit surprised that this came from Gergen.
i'm sure he meant to say at the end, 'but it's anyone's game'
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/24/assessing_the_ground_games.html
Big surprise there.
Well, wait.. I am a bit surprised that this came from Gergen.
He is finally embracing reality
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/24/assessing_the_ground_games.html
Big surprise there.
Well, wait.. I am a bit surprised that this came from Gergen.
Such is life here at PolliGAF. I personally lean towards the "Southern Skewing Theory" when it comes to national polls.
May be so, but the Republicans also seem far more akin to shady tactics and cheatery, so who knows.
I really think the Obama campaign needs to get surrogates out there talking up their electoral lead. Media narrative is a powerful thing and they need to nip the Romney momentum story in the bud.
It's not doing much now but two straight weeks of "Romney is surging" leading into the election will depress turnout instead of encouraging it.
It's not doing much now but two straight weeks of "Romney is surging" leading into the election will depress turnout instead of encouraging it.
el retorno
Member
What the hell is going on? I read the last few pages and I'm still confused.
everybody losing their collective minds.
I really think the Obama campaign needs to get surrogates out there talking up their electoral lead. Media narrative is a powerful thing and they need to nip the Romney momentum story in the bud.
It's not doing much now but two straight weeks of "Romney is surging" leading into the election will depress turnout instead of encouraging it.
If Obama supporters think that it's a dead heat up until election day, they'll be more likely to be motivated to vote. Bragging about how comfortable your lead is will only lead people to be confident and not show up.
el retorno
Member
Hello Everyone,
There seems to be a fresh breeze of optimism at work these days. After the last debate (which the POTUS clearly won) our confidence seems to be returning. Yeah those national trackers are confusing, but today's state polls reflect the internals and all signs are pointing towards an Obama victory. OFA is practically shipping every democrat that lives in DC into VA these next few weeks to get the final push out.
For those of you who live in "swing" states, please get involved with GOTV efforts and bring this election home.
Nice.
Manmademan
Member
where are you located?
also, the romney campaign is in 'no we're totally winning this, guys!' mode because they don't have a solid path to victory. the best ohio shows for them is a tie, and that's the best it's shown for them for the last three weeks.
the fact colorado is now a 'tie' according to fox news makes me think obama's ahead. nevada was a lost cause for romney a few weeks ago, but it's good to hear acknowledgment on it.
ohio is lean-toward-likely obama
virginia is in tossup mode
florida is slight lean romney
nc is lean romney
iowa is lean obama
nh is in tossup mode
colorado is slight lean obama
303 evs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFh0J8Ph18U
i'm sure he meant to say at the end, 'but it's anyone's game'
Surprisingly I think Fox news is actually not a bad pollster. But just about ANY poll that shows likely voters (which is what they are all showing at this point, not registered) tied, means registered voters are solidly in the Obama column, and the vastly superior Obama ground game means that first time and unlikely voters are going to tack another 1 or 2 points onto that.
That's not unskewing or hopium, thats fact. Outside of republican enthusiasm being through the roof (as it was briefly after the first debate) Obama has the edge in a situation where likely voters are tied- no matter who the pollster is. though those that skew right (like rasmussen, or gravis) is better news than PPP.
el retorno
Member
I loved the clip of them distancing themselves from their own poll.Surprisingly I think Fox news is actually not a bad pollster. But just about ANY poll that shows likely voters (which is what they are all showing at this point, not registered) tied, means registered voters are solidly in the Obama column, and the vastly superior Obama ground game means that first time and unlikely voters are going to tack another 1 or 2 points onto that.
but yea as a pollster their not the biased news agency their tv channel is.
Hello Everyone,
There seems to be a fresh breeze of optimism at work these days. After the last debate (which the POTUS clearly won) our confidence seems to be returning. Yeah those national trackers are confusing, but today's state polls reflect the internals and all signs are pointing towards an Obama victory. OFA is practically shipping every democrat that lives in DC into VA these next few weeks to get the final push out.
For those of you who live in "swing" states, please get involved with GOTV efforts and bring this election home.
You guys were pretty stressed out the last couple weeks, huh?
Today's Intrade update: Obama stock surged to $6.40 a pop. Considering the election is soon, it should be on an upward trajectory. However, we're assuming Romney is just going to take losing. He's gotta go for a hail mary to stay relevant. We'll see what he does and how it affects the opinion of Intrade investors.
gutter_trash
Banned
This is why I think a lot of people assuming some South will rise again movement will help defeat Obama are flat out wrong. Yes many Southerners hate Obama, but they also hate the Government and do not take part of the process. Only reason Midterms often go to their whims is because regular people who make up the electorate opt out.
as long as the Electoral College system is in place, the South can vote at 100% Republican and still lose the general election to "normal" states
I really think the Obama campaign needs to get surrogates out there talking up their electoral lead. Media narrative is a powerful thing and they need to nip the Romney momentum story in the bud.
It's not doing much now but two straight weeks of "Romney is surging" leading into the election will depress turnout instead of encouraging it.
Turnout will be better if obama supporters think the race is close or that romney is leading rather than if obama was in the leading or running away with the lead. People are more likely to not vote if they think that their vote won't mean as much as opposed to thinking obama is going to win anyway why would these people vote right?
speculawyer
Member
They don't think about politics all the time, and they don't hate him for the most part.. but hearing the men down here bitch bitch bitch like little whiny bitches over the past four years might've sunk-in a bit, and now more of them seem ready to give the new guy a chance.
What do they bitch about? Conservatives would often ask the same question when Bush was in office and it is a fair question because the world doesn't change dramatically no matter who is in office. But with W Bush (unlike HW Bush) it was easy to provide a list of grievances:
-Tax cuts that created budget busting deficits
-A very expensive and unnecessary war that cost us over a $1 Trillion and 4000+ lives of Americans plus untold tens or hundreds of thousands of Iraqis.
But with Obama, what do they have to complain about? I think most of what they complain about is fiction created in their own minds or spewed out of the Am radio or Fox news. The only real thing I can see them complaining about is:
-Unemployment still kinda high
I think they have a laundry list of completely nonsensical manufactured complaints:
-Benghazi-gate - Yeah, like you give a fuck about Libya or US government people dying.
-Fast & Furious - This one is hysterical . . . the right complaining about Obama selling guns too freely! WTF?!?
-Gas Prices - I'm sorry but oil production has increased more during Obama's administration than any other in the last 30 years!
We've got twelve days until election
Good god...the sound of that feels me with terror.
its funny how they try and deny it
Knowing the "liberal" media, Obama will get attacked for raising $1B (with a lot of small donors) while Romney gets celebrated for not raising as much even though his SuperPACs are bringing in more lol
Manmademan
Member
Today's Intrade update: Obama stock surged to $6.40 a pop. Considering the election is soon, it should be on an upward trajectory. However, we're assuming Romney is just going to take losing. He's gotta go for a hail mary to stay relevant. We'll see what he does and how it affects the opinion of Intrade investors.
with two weeks left, what can he do?
Romney HATES interviews (not done by Fox), and AFAIK has not committed to any appearances in the final two weeks. Obama on the other hand is freaking everywhere.
We'll see canned stump speeches and fundraisers, but I think Romney has shot his load.
with two weeks left, what can he do?
Romney HATES interviews (not done by Fox), and AFAIK has not committed to any appearances in the final two weeks. Obama on the other hand is freaking everywhere.
We'll see canned stump speeches and fundraisers, but I think Romney has shot his load.
I think both will be on MNF.
If Obama supporters think that it's a dead heat up until election day, they'll be more likely to be motivated to vote. Bragging about how comfortable your lead is will only lead people to be confident and not show up.
In a logical world this makes sense. There's nothing logical about the way some people vote though. There's a small but significant portion of (fucking dumb) undecided voters who vote based on who they think is going to win. I remember hearing a term for it back in the 2000 election but it isn't coming to mind right now.
speculawyer
Member
Tie in CO is okay.
No. It is only OK if OH is completely in the bag. But the CO is a pivotal state to win if Obama loses Ohio.
Make that 2000 shares at $6.20
O_O. Strange dips. I wonder if people are trying to drop the Obama stock.
Fake-Edit: The 2000 shares went away (not sold) as soon as it went up.
Real-Edit: Actually someone bought 1715 shares of Obama stock at $6.20. Total cost: $10633
O_O. Strange dips. I wonder if people are trying to drop the Obama stock.
Fake-Edit: The 2000 shares went away (not sold) as soon as it went up.
Real-Edit: Actually someone bought 1715 shares of Obama stock at $6.20. Total cost: $10633
There's not a lot of time left, but you know they'll try anything. I'm sure more conspiracy movies will come out. Maybe they'll "leak" a rumor that Obama is actually Bill Clinton in blackface.with two weeks left, what can he do?
Romney HATES interviews (not done by Fox), and AFAIK has not committed to any appearances in the final two weeks. Obama on the other hand is freaking everywhere.
We'll see canned stump speeches and fundraisers, but I think Romney has shot his load.
Absolutely.Can a campaign/superPAC pay for a poll and then pay to have it not released if they don't like the results?
Can a campaign/superPAC pay for a poll and then pay to have it not released if they don't like the results?
Yep. That's typically what happens and why people are suspicious about partisan sponsored polls
In a logical world this makes sense. There's nothing logical about the way some people vote though. There's a small but significant portion of (fucking dumb) undecided voters who vote based on who they think is going to win. I remember hearing a term for it back in the 2000 election but it isn't coming to mind right now.
There were a couple of posts about this earlier -- Armbinder noted that a meaningful chunk of "undecideds" are bandwagon voters. Klein, by contrast, noted that the Obama campaign is actually pushing a narrative of concern (as anybody getting emails knows) -- they think concern will make their base turn out better. All part of GOTV, I guess. If Romney's strategy is to win undecideds and Obama's strategy is to turn out unlikely Democrats, then both campaigns are doing exactly what they want to do right now.
with two weeks left, what can he do?
Romney HATES interviews (not done by Fox), and AFAIK has not committed to any appearances in the final two weeks. Obama on the other hand is freaking everywhere.
We'll see canned stump speeches and fundraisers, but I think Romney has shot his load.
I think they've been talking about Romney giving a MAJOR ECONOMIC POLICY SPEECH tomorrow. AKA It'll most likely just be a glorified version of his stump speech, but called "major" so more people pay attention.
If it's anything like Mitt's other "major" speeches, it'll likely resemble a wet fart.
Yep. That's typically what happens and why people are suspicious about partisan sponsored polls
What stops a major polling company from totally lying in their results to try to get more money from people who hire them?
Is this the final October surprise? A father of one of the Benghazi victims is suddenly willing to explain how he was mistreated by Obama, Biden, Clinton.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/joe...-son-always-have-balls-the-size-of-cue-balls/
Personally I think his story is tainted and based on too many rumours, Live streams from Libya army compounds, administration watching seals getting slaughtered, really?
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/joe...-son-always-have-balls-the-size-of-cue-balls/
Joe Biden to Father of Former Navy SEAL Killed in Benghazi: ‘Did Your Son Always Have Balls the Size of Cue Balls?’
Personally I think his story is tainted and based on too many rumours, Live streams from Libya army compounds, administration watching seals getting slaughtered, really?
Campaigns want accurate polling, they might not want the public to know about them, but internally, they have every incentive to get as accurate numbers as they can.What stops a major polling company from totally lying in their results to try to get more money from people who hire them?
I think they've been talking about Romney giving a MAJOR ECONOMIC POLICY SPEECH tomorrow. AKA It'll most likely just be a glorified version of his stump speech, but called "major" so more people pay attention.
If it's anything like Mitt's other "major" speeches, it'll likely resemble a wet fart.
I'll be shocked if it's even "wet" because "wet" implies a bit of substance. It'll just be a regular old dry fart, a really big one, but still really dry.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Obviously i would prefer a lead but it's good to remember CO has the same problem in polls as NV so dem support may be understatedNo. It is only OK if OH is completely in the bag. But the CO is a pivotal state to win if Obama loses Ohio.
I really think the Obama campaign needs to get surrogates out there talking up their electoral lead. Media narrative is a powerful thing and they need to nip the Romney momentum story in the bud.
It's not doing much now but two straight weeks of "Romney is surging" leading into the election will depress turnout instead of encouraging it.
Thing is, scared Dems are more likely to go to the polls than confident ones. Just keep Obama out there if Romney wants to cede airtime. He needs to watch the gaffes though. The "bullshit" thing was an unforced error. I bet he thought that was off the record but Rolling Stone wants hits on their site...
Is this the final October surprise? A father of one of the Benghazi victims is suddenly willing to explain how he was mistreated by Obama, Biden, Clinton.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/joe...-son-always-have-balls-the-size-of-cue-balls/
Any news agencies besides "The Blaze" pick this up?
Oh, this guy was on Glenn Beck. This will get no traction, then.
Is this the final October surprise? A father of one of the Benghazi victims is suddenly willing to explain how he was mistreated by Obama, Biden, Clinton.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/joe...-son-always-have-balls-the-size-of-cue-balls/
That's Glenn Beck's website. Probably going to have to do better than that for an October surprise.
Any news agencies besides "The Blaze" pick this up?
Oh, this guy was on Glenn Beck. This will get no traction, then.
FOX has it too of course, http://video.foxnews.com/v/1924759413001/father-of-security-agent-killed-in-libya-speaks-out/
But since he called to Beck directly that seems more accurate (from the fathers perspective at least, how warped that may be) and less dramatized.
speculawyer
Member
What stops a major polling company from totally lying in their results to try to get more money from people who hire them?
Nothing. And I assume various pollsters like Rasmussen do that. And Dem pollsters probably do it to. That's why Nate Silver puts things in his model to try to filter out such 'leaning' polls.
Of course some of that still probably gets in because sometimes you want to understand your side's showing such as before a convention so you can show a big bump from from the convention.
What stops a major polling company from totally lying in their results to try to get more money from people who hire them?
Nothing if they don't care about the eventual credibility hit. It happened to the Daily Kos a few years back
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39304.html
Daily Kos has filed a lawsuit against its former pollster, Research 2000, for breach of contract, fraud and negligent misrepresentation.
The seven-count complaint, filed in a northern California court Wednesday, claims that at least a portion of the polling produced for the liberal website was falsified and that Research 2000 refuses to produce the raw data to verify its work.
An attorney for Kos founder Markos Moulitsas, wrote that Research 2000 breached their contract by failing “to provide accurate polling data, thus proximately causing plaintiffs to incur losses, damages and liabilities” in excess of $100,000.
“However you look at it, Kos Media and Research 2000 had an agreement for one thing – Kos Media was paying money in exchange for accurate, valid polling to be conducted by Research 2000 – and Research 2000 did not deliver the services it promised. That’s what the statistical analysis makes clear,” attorney Adam Bonin told POLITICO.
Give me a break.FOX has it too of course, http://video.foxnews.com/v/1924759413001/father-of-security-agent-killed-in-libya-speaks-out/
But since he called to Beck directly that seems more accurate and less dramatized.
Is this the final October surprise? A father of one of the Benghazi victims is suddenly willing to explain how he was mistreated by Obama, Biden, Clinton.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/joe...-son-always-have-balls-the-size-of-cue-balls/
Personally I think his story is tainted and based on too many rumours, Live streams from Libya army compounds, administration watching seals getting slaughtered, really?
Yea...Biden can be tone deaf and say stupid shit but he's better than this. I mean shit, doesn't he have a son who served?
Also, lol Glen Beck
FOX has it too of course, http://video.foxnews.com/v/1924759413001/father-of-security-agent-killed-in-libya-speaks-out/
But since he called to Beck directly that seems more accurate (from the fathers perspective at least, how warped that may be) and less dramatized.
I think if the guy wanted to bring attention to what Biden potentially said seriously, he should've/would've gone to a reputable media source, not Crazy TV.
There were a couple of posts about this earlier -- Armbinder noted that a meaningful chunk of "undecideds" are bandwagon voters. Klein, by contrast, noted that the Obama campaign is actually pushing a narrative of concern (as anybody getting emails knows) -- they think concern will make their base turn out better. All part of GOTV, I guess. If Romney's strategy is to win undecideds and Obama's strategy is to turn out unlikely Democrats, then both campaigns are doing exactly what they want to do right now.
Thanks, bandwagon voters. Just because a campaign is doing as intended doesn't mean it's a good idea. Just look at Obama's performance in the first debate.
When it comes to a close election I'd rather count on something that's been tested and proven over manic depressive liberals being scared into voting.
I think if the guy wanted to bring attention to what Biden potentially said seriously, he should've/would've gone to a reputable media source, not Crazy TV.
Well he praises Beck for "integrity" so he clearly is in some sort of bubble.
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