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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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G

gcubed

Member
HylianTom said:
Yup. Gonna be a big pilling day. With Purple Polling saying that all of their swing state polls look good for Obama, this could be a really good one.

Well.. at least state-wise.
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purple strategies? If they and Gravis show good numbers for Obama it's almost time to have a drink
 
E

electricpirate

Member
At this point, I think Obama's Ohio polling may be just ahead of of his 2008 polling, that's a real testament to the work his campaign has put in there.

Also, NRO's poll dude is cracking me up. Watch as he unskews the polls by claiming that the respondants are just lying!

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331593/why-romney-doesnt-need-poll-lead-ohio-josh-jordan

If a pollster calls someone who says they voted already, they are automatically passed through the likely-voter screen since they have, after all, voted. The problem with this can be best summed up by Gregory House: “Everybody lies.”

Pollsters can only work with what their respondents tell them, and this is the reason that likely-voter screens can be so tricky, though important, in polling. The preferable response is that you are going to vote or, in the case of Ohio, that you’ve already voted. Many respondents will say they are going to vote (or have voted) when in fact they may not end up doing it (this effect is known as social-desirability bias). For this reason, some likely-voter screens ask about previous elections and general political enthusiasm to gauge the actual likelihood that a voter will end up in the booth on Election Day. But that is where early voting throws the screen out the window — if a voter says they voted, there is nothing a pollster can do to but assume that it’s true.

Enter Ohio, where the current estimates from compiling early in-person and absentee voting shows early turnout to be about 15 percent of voters. But responses in the current polls claim that 23 percent of registered voters have already voted. That means that polls are overstating early voting by eight percentage points on average. This could be in part because some voters have requested an absentee ballot and report that as voting, some have mailed in ballots that haven’t been counted as received yet, but some voters are also just flat out saying they voted when they haven’t. It’s impossible to know the exact reason, but it’s clear that more are claiming to vote than really have.
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It's the return of the Bradley effect!
 
D

Downhome

Member
I wonder why that is though. I lean to the right, usually, and I'd certainly vote early if I could.

Although, a part of me does like the experience of doing it on election day. To see the turnout, chat with people, all that stuff.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Chumly said:
It makes me mad because government does create jobs and they are great middle class jobs
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No. Government does NOT create jobs.




Unless they are defense contractor jobs, in which case ... HOW THE HELL CAN OBAMA BE SO FICKLE? We are in the middle of a depressed economy and Obama wants defense cuts that will lay off nearly 1 million workers. Simply unbelievable.
 
G

gcubed

Member
Downhome said:
I wonder why that is though. I lean to the right, usually, and I'd certainly vote early if I could.

Although, a part of me does like the experience of doing it on election day. To see the turnout, chat with people, all that stuff.
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how old are you? I'm guessing you are under 35? which means that the Dems would get more support then the GOP.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
electricpirate said:
At this point, I think Obama's Ohio polling may be just ahead of of his 2008 polling, that's a real testament to the work his campaign has put in there.
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He rightfully should be ahead in Ohio. He saved the automotive industry. By all rights he should win Ohio more than he did last time.

Chumly said:
It makes me mad because government does create jobs and they are great middle class jobs
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It pisses me off, too. In a recession we want government to create those nice, stable, good paying middle class jobs. They're jobs that we could use to get things done that we need to get done here, and they're jobs that can't be outsourced. They get money back into the economy, and get people back into the workforce gaining experience.

Downhome said:
I wonder why that is though. I lean to the right, usually, and I'd certainly vote early if I could.
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I think it's partially because Democratic voters tend to be a bit poorer and/or younger. They're less able to take a day off on a whim, so they have to get their voting in whenever it's convenient for them.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Downhome said:
Although, a part of me does like the experience of doing it on election day. To see the turnout, chat with people, all that stuff.
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Yeah I never get people who mail in a ballot when they can go to an actual booth and do it. My polling place has stereotypically sweet old poll booth ladies, and a middle aged man who slaps on the "I voted" sticker and always says something like "That's a fine patriotic thing you just did son".

The warm fuzzy feeling is so good.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
Bowdz said:
No. Government does NOT create jobs.
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Then how do you explain the ~18 million federal, state, and local government employees? How do you explain teachers, firefighters, policemen? How do you explain construction workers building roads, bridges, and government buildings?

Oh yeah, I forgot we're supposed to ignore that and pretend that the government doesn't employ anyone.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Journalism is so fucking bad nowadays. CNN keeps bringing up that new web ad posted a few pages ago on here and saying "Is this ad controversial?" Reminds me of the Colbert skit the other day making fun of Fox for basically asking stupid pointed questions and thinking it's journalism.

Tim-E said:
Then how do you explain the ~18 million federal, state, and local government employees? How do you explain teachers, firefighters, policemen? How do you explain construction workers building roads, bridges, and government buildings?

Oh yeah, I forgot we're supposed to ignore that and pretend that the government doesn't employ anyone.
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I think you missed some sarcasm there.
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
Tim-E said:
Then how do you explain the ~18 million federal, state, and local government employees? How do you explain teachers, firefighters, policemen? How do you explain construction workers building roads, bridges, and government buildings?

Oh yeah, I forgot we're supposed to ignore that and pretend that the government doesn't employ anyone.
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Papa Joe, he was being sarcastic. :(
 
G

gcubed

Member
Tim-E said:
If so, then pardon me. I'm tired and stressed out from work. My brain isn't functioning properly today.
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1cKym.gif
 
D

Downhome

Member
Ecotic said:
Yeah I never get people who mail in a ballot when they can go to an actual booth and do it. My polling place has stereotypically sweet old poll booth ladies, and a middle aged man who slaps on the "I voted" sticker and always says something like "That's a fine patriotic thing you just did son".

The warm fuzzy feeling is so good.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that is how mine is as well. Well, at least how it has been - I got married and moved a few towns over so I'll be voting at a new place in a new county, but I assume it'll be close to how it has always been to me. I'll miss going to that other place now that I'm here.

And yeah, I'm 32.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
(sorry for the delay.. at work going nuts.)

Steve McMahon on Hardball mentioned it yesterday, but my quick googling only found people referencing Twitter.
 
D

Downhome

Member
I know, Ras, but...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...n/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president

President Obama and Mitt Romney are now tied in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows the president and his Republican challenger each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

This race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Obama carried Wisconsin by a 56% to 42% margin in 2008.

In Election 2000, Florida was the decisive state in the Electoral College. In 2004, Ohio was the ultimate battleground state that put George W. Bush over the top. Scott Rasmussen suggests in his latest weekly newspaper column that Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio this year.

A week ago, the president held a slight 50% to 48% lead. Earlier in the month, he was ahead 51% to 49%. In surveys in Wisconsin since October of last year, the president has earned 44% to 52% of the vote, while Romney’s support has ranged from 41% to 49%.

Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters.

Among the 90% who say they’ve already made up their minds whom they will vote for, it’s Romney 51%, Obama 48%.

Romney has a six-point lead over Obama – 50% to 44% - among all voters in the state when they are asked which candidate they trust more to handle the economy. When it comes to national security, the candidates are almost tied: 48% trust Obama more, while 47% have more faith in Romney. This shows no change from a week ago and is comparable to voter attitudes nationally.
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C

Chumly

Member
When half the polls are found to be complete and utter shit after the election the media better call them out (they won't). Especially gallops ridiculous LV polls.
 
P

Paches

Member
96% voter turnout would be a world record. Look at '08:

http://www.postcrescent.com/article/20100927/APC0101/9270570/Wisconsin-had-high-voter-turnout-2008-presidential-election


The state had a 69.2 percent voter turnout in the 2008 presidential election, according to "Civic Life in America: Key Findings on the Civic Health of the Nation," a study by the Corporation for National and Community Service and the National Conference on Citizenship.

Minnesota had the best voter turnout, at 73.4 percent. Maine and New Hampshire were second and third.
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B

Bowdz

Member
Lol, Sam Wang is one cheeky bastard.

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/26/ro-mentum-watch-john-dickerson-cbsslate/

Sam Wang said:
This is like shooting fish in a barrel. The latest, from John Dickerson at Slate:

"It’s a fool’s game to guess whose momentum is greater. But Romney is peaking at just the right moment."

Ah, yes. The Great Election of October 13, 2012. I remember it well.

Wait a minute.

The subject of “political momentum” is a favorite among political pundits. I would hesitate to guess how John Dickerson and David Brooks (“David Brooks – now with Ro-mentum!“, October 25) did in high school calculus, for fear of seeming rude.

Instead I will use someone else’s words. In a comment noticed by Rick in Miami:
"Wow, Dickerson, when I saw the headline I expected this article to be so much fluff, devoid of actual evidence for the existence of Mittmentum, and filled instead with entertaining anecdotes about campaign rallies. But you surprised me! Instead, the article was so much fluff, devoid of actual evidence for the existence of Mittmentum, and filled instead with deadly boring anecdotes about campaign rallies. Well done, sir." - SPG
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I

Incognito

Troll
Tim-E said:
LOL Awesome
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amaazing!

more interesting tidbits:

“We don’t even conduct national polls,” said a senior Obama adviser — a day after the Romney campaign email-blasted tracking polls showing the GOP nominee with a 50 percent to 47 percent lead nationally.

Another point Team Obama wants to make: Their internal polling is more accurate and predictive than public polling because it relies on more sophisticated, expensive data that details a voter’s preferences and behavior over time, along with other information about their profile.
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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82930.html#ixzz2AQ5vjlfH
 
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