I'm wondering what was the cataclysmic event that Putin saw coming for Russia, that spurred this disastrous invasion. What is Putin trying to protect against, because this looks like a resource grab, rather than some old USSR nostalgia kick. Are there some commodity that Russia can corner a market on by capturing Ukraine? Like can they squeeze the grain or precious metals markets with Ukraine under their control? Because there should logically be a long-term contingency plan for recovering from the financial crisis that this invasion has incurred....right?
I
What is shocking is the fact that both the UK and USA have a signed agreement with Ukraine
en.wikipedia.org
Which has six main points
- Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
- Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine.
- Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine to influence their politics.
- Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
- Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine.
- Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments.
The Budapest Memorandum was negotiated at political level, but it is not entirely clear whether the instrument is devoid entirely of legal provisions. It refers to assurances, but it does not impose a legal obligation of
military assistance on its parties. It gives signatories justification if they take action, but it does not force anyone to act in Ukraine.
So essentially the USA and UK are choosing to argue the document is not legal and we despite offering "security assurances" should sit back and not engage with a foreign military power on Ukraine sovereign soil, but we do offer our "assurances".
1997: Russia lost war in Chechenia making it de facto independent
1997:Nato announces 3 new members by 1999
1998:Russia bankrupts ,NATO issues order on making plans to invade Yugoslavia,French general leaks plan to Yugoslavs postponing invasion.
1999:March 12 Czech Republic,Poland,Hungary join NATO entering east europe.
1999:March 24 NATO War on Yugoslavia
*Yugoslavia pro Russian country
*Kosovo occupied by NATO(Kosovo is one of best strategic places in south europe,it is from here old Empires use to control roads from europe to asia/africa)
*First time since 1945 country gets attacked by Superpower without UN approval or invitation from host country.(After it Iraq,Lyibia,Syiria)
2000:Color revolution in Yugoslavia,pro NATO government instaled.
2001:War in Macedonia ,NATO expanding influence ,The US exit Anti Balistic Missle Treaty with Russia.
2002:NATO announces 7 more countries joining by 2004.
2003:Color revolution in Georgia ,new pro NATO orientation
2003:Assassination of Serbian Prime Minister,new government tells Russians to withdraw its army from Kosovo.
2004:
*Bulgaria and Romania joins NATO making Russians lose last influence they had in South Europe
*Slovenia and Slovakia joins NATO making Russians lose Central Europe
*Lithuania,Lethonia,Estonia joins alliance, NATO at Russian borders
2004:Color revolution in Ukraine,pro NATO government
2005:Color revolution in Kyrgistan ending pro Russian government
2006:Montenegro(big Russian stronghold since 18 century with access to sea) leaves union with Yugoslavia,pro west government
2007:NATO Plans to instal missle shields in Poland and Czech to protect europe against Iran promising they wont be pointed towards Moscow.
2008:Kosovo declares independence supported by NATO and allies going against UN resolution they made in 1999.
2008:At NATO summit It was decided to postpone invitation to Georgia and Ukraine till December.
*Official reason :Germany objected,real reason Georgia had 2 breakaway republics(under Russian protection) and Russia had military bases in Crimea.
If Georgia conducted military operation and Russians did not respond they would be considered weak and Ukranians would terminate Crimea deal.War did not go well for Georgians and Ukraine told Russians they wont expand Crimea deal(ending in 2017)
Russians recognized 2 breakaway republics(Abhazia, South Ossetia) and invading Georgia without UN approval.
We are now at point were 4 outa 5 UN security council members are breaking international law.
2009:Albania and Croatia joined NATO.
2010:Elections in Ukraine ,pro west Yulia Timoschenko vs Pro Russia Victor Yanukovich,
*West Ukraine voted for Yulia and East Ukraine for Victor.Victor won by 3 percent.
*Crimea bases extended to Russians for 25 more years.
2011:Arab Spring,only Russian base outside former soviet union located in Syria
2012:Gas reserves found in Black sea would make Ukraine number 15 gas exporter in world and number 1 in europe(not counting Russia)
2013:EU and NATO pressuring Ukraine to pick side(Their side)
*Yanukovich asked 30 billion dollars,EU offered 600 millions and ordered change of laws in Ukraine.Russians offered 15 billion,30 percent gas price cut and no law changes.
*Russian offer accepted triggering demonstrations.
2014 NATO bombing of Isis in Syria but also targeting Assad regime.
2014:Revolution in Ukraine ,Yanukovich flees to Russia
*Crimea joins Russis
*War in Dobas
*Crimea hosts biggest port in Black sea and is only ice free port all year round,losing this makes them guests in Black sea,lost control over it south borders.
2015:Russia joins war in Syria on Assad side defending last base they have outside former soviet union.
2016:NATO missile shield in Poland and Romania
2017:Montenegro joins NATO
*NATO now in control of entire Adriatic sea sucsesfully blocking Russia from installing military bases in South Europe,
2018:Ukranian orthodox church splits from Russian.
2019:Venezuela crisis
*Last Russian ally in South America
*Venezuela almost got attacked by NATO countries
2020:Biggest anti government protest in Belarus supported by west.
*Lukashenko almost fell from power
2021:War in Donbas resumed after 2016,Ukranian forces getting ready to liberate Donbas
2022:Finland interested to join NATO.
2022:Russia invades Ukraine.
Around 80 percent of Russians live on 10 percent of territory between Belarus and Ukraine on West and Volga river on East,so if you are going to conquer Russia you only have to stab it at heart.
Tatars,Poles,Germans 2 times,French,various hordes failed in past because supply lines was too far away but if starting lines at Finland,Belarus and Ukraine that is game over ,no way you could defend that.
Main goal is this:
It was already tried 100 years ago during Russian civil war,
From Russian perspective they are the one been attacked here by NATO and west,we all know it they aint gonna stop at Ukraine,they made it pretty clear they will reset NATO back to 1997 one way or another.Lot of people here thinks that Putin went crazy that they started planing this year ago but truth is they been preparing for this for long time ,4d chess ,puzzle ,clash of civilizations but whatever happens i hope to get to play Elden Ring before everything goes into pieces.
PS:Hoping for alien invasion.