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[Saty]

That might actually be possible.

Last Year:

Madden NFL 10 (360) / Electronic Arts / 289,600
Madden NFL 10 (PS3) / Electronic Arts / 246,500

Taking that down by 11% would give us a bare minimum of 477k, assuming the Wii, PS2, and PSP sold zero copies.

The 11% decrease in unit sales is from Madden 11's launch in August, not last year's game, so you'll just need to take last NPD's numbers

 

[Mrbob]

Warriors of Bomba! :lol

Pat yourself on the back, Kotick.

The 11% decrease in unit sales is from Madden 11's launch in August, not last year's game, so you'll just need to take last NPD's numbers

This cannot be right. Madden has never had such a high second month like that. The way it is figured out now sounds right.

 

[apana]

The lack of compelling software is something that can't be neglected.

360 has Black ops and Halo reach. I think this is pretty much a done deal

Wait a minute, what about DKC? I cant imagine that doesnt move the needle at all.

 

[Vic]

Hmm not sure on this, do you have numbers to back it up as must do there best numbers towards holiday seasons?.

Behold: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=384933

 

[Dave Long]

The other thing that's significant is that whether it's 3DS, DSi or Wii, all the money is going into one big sinkhole called Nintendo. I'm sure they'd be happier if Wii was still blazing along, but it's not exactly dead yet and it seems likely they're going to be swimming in their Scrooge McDuck vault again when 3DS ships.

It's ok if Wii slips into the background while they push a new and potentially game changing handheld system.

 

[thcsquad]

I'm really going to need to see a reference for that. Especially if you have any data for the last 3-4 months.

Well, it's impossible to get data that recent. Several posts above referred to their annual reports for 2009, which you can look at.

To me, it makes sense because Sony releases more first-party games every year. Individually, they don't equal Microsoft's big hitters, but combined they make up for them. I also can't think of any gigantic exclusives MS had FY2009. 2010? There's Halo, but there's also GT5. I'd guess the two would be pretty close this year.

 

[Painraze]

Wait a minute, what about DKC? I cant imagine that doesnt move the needle at all.

It'll move the needle about as much as Metroid did.

 

[Nirolak]

The 11% decrease in unit sales is from Madden 11's launch in August, not last year's game, so you'll just need to take last NPD's numbers

That wouldn't make sense to be cumulatively flat year over year though, as it would have sold more than three times as much as last year, especially given that August 2010 was bigger than August 2009.

 

[Vic]

It'll move the needle about as much as Metroid did.

People said this about NSMB Wii & Mario Kart Wii when they came out.

 

[apana]

It'll move the needle about as much as Metroid did.

Wow you guys are going overboard here. :lol The original did like 8 million and the audience for that type of game is definitely on the Wii.

 

[operon]

Well, it's impossible to get data that recent. Several posts above referred to their annual reports for 2009, which you can look at.

To me, it makes sense because Sony releases more first-party games every year. Individually, they don't equal Microsoft's big hitters, but combined they make up for them. I also can't think of any gigantic exclusives MS had FY2009. 2010? There's Halo, but there's also GT5. I'd guess the two would be pretty close this year.

That has to ship yet, not guaranteed just yet

 

[AniHawk]

To be honest, I think that "Wii in HD!" is actually a pretty solid hook, even if Move will steal a little bit of that thunder

I'm also fairly confident that Nintendo are going to reverse their Wii strategy for its successor and make a strong grab for the core audience right from the outset, just as they have done with the 3DS, with a slate of titles for the expanded audience later in the system's lifespan.

I think if the 3DS is successful, they will use the same tactics to court third parties to their console, but I'm not sure if that means it will just be a Nintendo PlayStation 3. There's going to be something stupid crazy that differentiates it somehow, like the 3DS's screen, for now, clearly differentiates itself from the competition.

 

[Somnid]

Nintendo still needs to release the 3DS and the vitality sensor before they start worrying about their next console. The vitality sensor and Wii Relax are different and interesting enough they could become another "social phenomenon" as Iwata calls them. Or not.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Well, holidays and Wii is a combination that can't be neglected.

I think the days of "The Wii will sell because it's the Wii" are largely over.

Nintendo's traditional evergreen software is no longer dominating the top of the sales charts month in and month out (which makes MS and Sony's sudden impulsive jump into all things motion gaming seem all the more questionable, but that's another topic entirely) - they absolutely need Wii Party and DKC/Kirby to duplicate Wii Fit/Mario Kart/NSMB type numbers this holiday to push hardware.

Even then, it sets up a dubious trend - how do developers approach a console that only moves software in significant chunks during the holidays and sags the other 10 months of the year (for now, the second year running)?

 

[FoneBone]

It's ok if Wii slips into the background while they push a new and potentially game changing handheld system.

Go too far with this and it puts Wii2 in a weaker position from which to launch. I don't exactly think it's insurmountable, but the sooner the better, if you ask me.

 

[Loudninja]

I think szaromir bump the wrong topic

 

[szaromir]

I think szaromir bump the wrong topic

Yup, I was browsing archive and this happened. Ugh.
edit: last year 3rd parties sold $154M worth of software on 360 (+whatever ODST managed to sell), the software sales on 360 couldn't be only $85M this year, I suspect i's wrong for other platforms as well (especially if you consider total software number).

 

[ASIS]

WOW Wii is really beginning to fade.

 

[DuckRacer]

I'm confounded as to when they're planning to launch Sledgehammer's FPS. They can't seriously be launching it in the Fall with Modern Warfare 3 coming out, but they still haven't even announced the thing.

Allegedly Sledgehammer IS making MW3. At least that's the current rumor.

And :lol :lol :lol @ Guitar Hero. Talk about running a series into the ground. It'll be interesting to see how RB3 performs.

 

[Nirolak]

Yup, I was browsing archive and this happened. Ugh.

I think he means that's what they're up by instead of what they're equal to.

I'll go add a note to that.

 

[Pureauthor]

Yup, I was browsing archive and this happened. Ugh.

So, what's this about inaccurate software figures?

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Well, it's impossible to get data that recent. Several posts above referred to their annual reports for 2009, which you can look at.

To me, it makes sense because Sony releases more first-party games every year. Individually, they don't equal Microsoft's big hitters, but combined they make up for them. I also can't think of any gigantic exclusives MS had FY2009. 2010? There's Halo, but there's also GT5. I'd guess the two would be pretty close this year.

Sony's first party software sales are infinitesimally small compared to the contributions by EA, Activision, Ubisoft, etc. to either platform. Especially in terms of revenue, as few of Sony's titles sell gangbusters out of the gate, in any territory.

We do have recent data for 2 of the 3 territories though, so we can assume that unless Sony is outselling MS more than 2:1 across all of Europe, they probably have taken a step back in recent months.

 

[Shurs]

I think the days of "The Wii will sell because it's the Wii" are largely over.

Off-Topic

How can you have a username like Sho_Nuff and not have an avatar from The Last Dragon?

On-Topic

I agree with your sentiments regarding Wii holiday sales being over, though I though that would be the case last holiday season too.

 

[Dave Long]

I think the days of "The Wii will sell because it's the Wii" are largely over.

Nintendo's traditional evergreen software is no longer dominating the top of the sales charts month in and month out (which makes MS and Sony's sudden impulsive jump into all things motion gaming seem all the more questionable, but that's another topic entirely) - they absolutely need Wii Party and DKC/Kirby to duplicate Wii Fit/Mario Kart/NSMB type numbers this holiday to push hardware.

Even then, it sets up a dubious trend - how do developers approach a console that only moves software in significant chunks during the holidays and sags the other 10 months of the year (for now, the second year running)?

Uh... how do we know what their evergreen software did this month? The new chart from NPD is basically designed to exclude Nintendo software sales. With NPD now listing all platforms together, it's going to take a single massive hit game on a Nintendo platform to bust into that top ten. That Metroid: Other M made it despite being one of three single-platform entries this month is significant IMO.

Nintendo is likely reaching a saturation point for the current price of the Wii and will lower the price in 2011. I think that's set in stone.

 

[Majmun]

It's not a race, but a marathon. This gen will last for a few years. Looks like the Wii is the first console that's losing steam across the world.

 

[badcrumble]

Uh... how do we know what their evergreen software did this month? The new chart from NPD is basically designed to exclude Nintendo software sales. With NPD now listing all platforms together, it's going to take a single massive hit game on a Nintendo platform to bust into that top ten. That Metroid: Other M made it despite being one of three single-platform entries this month is significant IMO.

If they hadn't combined PS3 and 360 numbers for a bunch of those titles, Metroid: Other M probably wouldn't have charted at all. The combination of SKUs is definitely going to have the effect of pushing some of Nintendo's stuff out of the top 5, but it'll also allow for more room toward the bottom of the top 10, I think.

No way to know for sure, of course, which is frustrating.

 

[Barrett2]

To be honest, I think that "Wii in HD!" is actually a pretty solid hook, even if Move will steal a little bit of that thunder

I'm also fairly confident that Nintendo are going to reverse their Wii strategy for its successor and make a strong grab for the core audience right from the outset, just as they have done with the 3DS, with a slate of titles for the expanded audience later in the system's lifespan.

By the time 2012 rolls around, HD will be so commonplace that i can't imagine it will hold any wow factor. If that's the only thing the next Nintendo console has going for it, they're screwed. I think HD graphics are a given on the next Wii, it would be absurd not to.

I can only suppose they are going to try to find innovation in the interface. But how do you do this cheaply? I could see something like augmented reality cameras and a Kinect-like device being part of it, so they aren't just plopping another Wiimote in the box. That would provide a nice marketing hook. But still, for holiday 2012, basically putting out Eye Pet with Mario and shiny HD visuals doesn't seem too exciting.

Who knows, maybe R&D will have a mind-blowing vitality sensor device by then, and some kind of functional mind control device would be their new 'wow' moment for the new system. But then you start getting into cost issues like with the 3DS.... But, if I had to bet, my money is on a *very* advanced vitality sensor being the gimmick for the next Wii.

Basically, I agree with Anihawk; Nintendo is all about gimmicks. HD is not a gimmick, it's an expectation at this point.

 

[szaromir]

Uh... how do we know what their evergreen software did this month? The new chart from NPD is basically designed to exclude Nintendo software sales. With NPD now listing all platforms together, it's going to take a single massive hit game on a Nintendo platform to bust into that top ten. That Metroid: Other M made it despite being one of three single-platform entries this month is significant IMO.

Yeah, I'm sure it's a conspiracy against Nintendo. If it's an evergreen title, you may be sure it sold well and it made money for itself.

It would be nice to have software numbers, but combining multiplatform releases doesn't bother me - a game is a game, surely developing it is more expensive, but once it's out we can treat it as one.

So, what's this about inaccurate software figures?

last year 3rd parties sold $154M worth of software on 360 (+whatever ODST managed to sell), the software sales on 360 couldn't be only $85M this year, I suspect i's wrong for other platforms as well (especially if you consider total software number). Also what Nirolak said.

 

[Marcos]

http://www.gamersmint.com/ps3-sold-312k-units-in-september-confirmed-b​y-wedbush-morgan

PS3 sold more than the Nintendo WII in september according to figures revealed by Wedbush Morgan.

In a note to investors, analyst firm Wedbush Morgan revealed that sales of Nintendo’s Wii were down 45 per cent year-on-year with 254,000 units sold, while Sony shifted 312,000 PlayStation 3 units, down 37 per cent.
Also worth noting that Guitar hero performed very bad selling 86k units that month. Worrying news for Activision.



360 - 484k
PS3 - 312k
Wii - 254k










edit, yet posted..

 

[FoneBone]

The problem with Wii2 is that there's not some bottomless well of innovation out there. I don't see it being nearly as radical a change (interface-wise) as Wii was over Gamecube.

 

[Shurs]

Uh... how do we know what their evergreen software did this month? The new chart from NPD is basically designed to exclude Nintendo software sales. With NPD now listing all platforms together, it's going to take a single massive hit game on a Nintendo platform to bust into that top ten. That Metroid: Other M made it despite being one of three single-platform entries this month is significant IMO.

Nintendo is likely reaching a saturation point for the current price of the Wii and will lower the price in 2011. I think that's set in stone.

I don't know if I agree entirely with your sentiment, as by combining SKUs to one spot on the chart they're opening up the chart to games that wouldn't have made the top 10 otherwise. For example, instead of both HD version of Madden taking up two spots, they now only take up one, same for Dead Rising 2.

 

[1-D_FTW]

The other thing that's significant is that whether it's 3DS, DSi or Wii, all the money is going into one big sinkhole called Nintendo. I'm sure they'd be happier if Wii was still blazing along, but it's not exactly dead yet and it seems likely they're going to be swimming in their Scrooge McDuck vault again when 3DS ships.

It's ok if Wii slips into the background while they push a new and potentially game changing handheld system.

Agreed. I'd much prefer all their first party titles be on 3DS until they release a proper HD console anyways. If they want to release Wii Party 2 or things like that, great. But put the more hardcore titles on 3DS.

 

[Indyana]

If they hadn't combined PS3 and 360 numbers for a bunch of those titles, Metroid: Other M probably wouldn't have charted at all. The combination of SKUs is definitely going to have the effect of pushing some of Nintendo's stuff out of the top 5, but it'll also allow for more room toward the bottom of the top 10, I think.

No way to know for sure, of course, which is frustrating.

We know. Anita Frazier said that NSMBW would be in a sku top10.

 

[sixteen-bit]

guitar hero bomba?

 

[kswiston]

Does anyone have hardware figures for the PS2 at roughly the same point in its life. Say September 2004? What are normal September numbers for a 4 year old leading console?

 

[AniHawk]

Agreed. I'd much prefer all their first party titles be on 3DS until they release a proper HD console anyways. If they want to release Wii Party 2 or things like that, great. But put the more hardcore titles on 3DS.

That's not gonna happen from them. The main "hardcore" games they're putting on that machine are two games from the 90s and Paper Mario. The rest are games that are either casual or considered casual (like Mario Kart and probably Pilotwings considering how much that one resembles Wii Sports). And there should be a Mario game at some point, but the Wii is the one that's getting the next main Zelda, Pikmin 3, Fatal Frame IIr, Rhythm Heaven, and The Last Story.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

By the time 2012 rolls around, HD will be so commonplace that i can't imagine it will hold any wow factor. If that's the only thing the next Nintendo console has going for it, they're screwed. I think HD graphics are a given on the next Wii, it would be absurd not to.

Oh, I don't think it will be the only thing - the point I was trying to make (probably not at all clearly) is that for a huge group of people Wii (or more accurately, Nintendo) games in HD are going to be a big draw.

Remember, in many ways Nintendo haven't leapt into what many gamers consider "next-gen" yet (persistent online profiles, friends networks, DLC, HD etc.) so if their next console ticked a lot of those boxes, as well as adding a few new twists it could be quite compelling.

A Wii2 running at 1080p, with a solid online component, a more orthodox architecture, refined motion control and Nintendo taking a core-games-first approach? Not a bad proposition, especially if they could manage to leverage early support from third parties.

They're unlikely to be able to harness lightning two times in a row, but I could certainly see them shooting for something on top of the above, but I think as a base it's what we should be expecting.

 

[demosthenes]

So can we just say that there will be a Halo game a holiday season now?

Also I just realized that DR2 was only on sale for like 2 days in September, very excited it had so many sales.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Uh... how do we know what their evergreen software did this month? The new chart from NPD is basically designed to exclude Nintendo software sales. With NPD now listing all platforms together, it's going to take a single massive hit game on a Nintendo platform to bust into that top ten. That Metroid: Other M made it despite being one of three single-platform entries this month is significant IMO.

Nintendo is likely reaching a saturation point for the current price of the Wii and will lower the price in 2011. I think that's set in stone.

NSMBWii, Wii Play, Wii Fit Plus, and Super Mario Galaxy 2 all sold less than 86k this month, we know that much.

While they could have all sold respectably (all of these titles exhibited great legs at one point or another) outside of the top 10, the fact is that they aren't consistently dominating the top of the charts like Wii Play, Wii Fit, and Mario Kart were in years past.

The sales of Nintendo's EG software is obviously buoyed by new system owners. In slow months, they have slow sales. If they aren't moving big chunks of hardware now, is being given as a Christmas present the only chance they have of doing so?

 

[Shig]

Well, they referred to them as "the second wave" of Kinect software, in which case it seems that we won't be getting more Kinect software for quite a while.

I'm sure the early 2011 Kinect lineup will be filled in by quick & dirty conversions of Wii stuff like Deca Sports and Carnival Games, or their legions of imitators.

 

[FoneBone]

That's not gonna happen from them. The main "hardcore" games they're putting on that machine are two games from the 90s and Paper Mario. The rest are games that are either casual or considered casual (like Mario Kart and probably Pilotwings considering how much that one resembles Wii Sports). And there should be a Mario game at some point, but the Wii is the one that's getting the next main Zelda, Pikmin 3, Fatal Frame IIr, Rhythm Heaven, and The Last Story.

You forgot Kid Icarus, but the point stands.

 

[RainbowByte]

I think activision better call the chilean miner rescue squad, they just rode the guitar hero IP deep into the ground :lol

 

[JaggedSac]

It also added that Xbox 360 software sales were up 33 per cent to $85 million off the back of Halo: Reach

Does that mean that it was up $85 million? Or that the total software sales were $85 million? The latter of which does not make sense given that Halo sold 3.3 million copies.

 

[kswiston]

Does that mean that it was up $85 million? Or that the total software sales were $85 million? The latter of which does not make sense given that Halo sold 3.3 million copies.

Ya, probably up $85 million. Reach on its own would be over $200 million.

 

[CadetMahoney]

I don't trust any manufactuer claims coming out of Europe. Looks like the US is soon to be following that path too.

Neither do I, but what are we to do? Keep recognizing them as gospel and troll anyone who questions them?

 

[Barrett2]

Oh, I don't think it will be the only thing - the point I was trying to make (probably not at all clearly) is that for a huge group of people Wii (or more accurately, Nintendo) games in HD are going to be a big draw.

Remember, in many ways Nintendo haven't leapt into what many gamers consider "next-gen" yet (persistent online profiles, friends networks, DLC, HD etc.) so if their next console ticked a lot of those boxes, as well as adding a few new twists it could be quite compelling.

A Wii2 running at 1080p, with a solid online component, a more orthodox architecture, refined motion control and Nintendo taking a core-games-first approach? Not a bad proposition, especially if they could manage to leverage early support from third parties.

They're unlikely to be able to harness lightning two times in a row, but I could certainly see them shooting for something on top of the above, but I think as a base it's what we should be expecting.

I agree that the next Wii will have all of those things; HD, online, more advanced Wiimote, etc.. But, I think all of that is still just the baseline of what they need in order to retain nerds like us. In 2012, my wristwatch should have those things. In other words, they don't gain much by including what people perceive to be bare essentials, other than keeping the core audience coming back to the well.

To bring back all the housewives and grandmas, it needs a gimmick. 3D is a fantastic gimmick, and because of it 3DS looks very exciting. But you can't do that with a home console, because they have no vested interest in getting people to buy 3DTVs. What the gimmick will be, who knows, but I guarantee 100% it *will* have a gimmick, and that gimmick will be the forefront of the marketing, HD and online stuff will not.

 

[Indyana]

NSMBWii, Wii Play, Wii Fit Plus, and Super Mario Galaxy 2 all sold less than 86k this month, we know that much.

While they could have all sold respectably (all of these titles exhibited great legs at one point or another) outside of the top 10, the fact is that they aren't consistently dominating the top of the charts like Wii Play, Wii Fit, and Mario Kart were in years past.

The sales of Nintendo's EG software is obviously buoyed by new system owners. In slow months, they have slow sales. If they aren't moving big chunks of hardware now, is being given as a Christmas present the only chance they have of doing so?

Did I miss something? How do you calculate that? GH WoR isn't in the top10

 

[bigtroyjon]

NSMBWii, Wii Play, Wii Fit Plus, and Super Mario Galaxy 2 all sold less than 86k this month, we know that much.

Where did you get that from?

 

[Mirimar]

How would a Wii price drop affect things? The Wii is still selling at $200, having only one price drop to date. I can't see it reclaiming its god-like selling status, but the $200 price point compared to the competition has to be hurting it.

Considering the strong Yen, it wouldn't be very rational for Nintendo to consider a price drop at this point. As many others have pointed out, software sales are more important at this point and time. Declining hardware sale are really the least of their problems.

Also, considering these low sales for Nintendo, are people expecting them to post another loss the next quarter?

 

[Kai Dracon]

To be honest I was wondering what was up with Nintendo when the only expanded audience and/or bridge game announced at E3 was Wii Party. Half of me wonders if Nintendo has effectively given up on regaining any momentum with the Wii and is now buckling in for the rest of its lifespan, concentrating on 3DS, etc etc.

Wii Party is IMHO a very weak expanded audience title; it's not attention grabbing to the average joe like Wii Fit, Wii Sports Resort, or even Wii Music. I'm not sure if Donkey Kong Country Returns can really be a bridge game like Mario Kart and NSMB Wii. Nintendo has had great trouble with the Wii trying to figure out how to follow up on its success. They have an expanded audience hungry for content but have largely failed to deliver. (I still think the real downfall of the Wii in the mindspace of the general public began when they flubbed turning Animal Crossing into a monster bridge title. There was the Wii's MMORPG for the expanded audience and they merely repackaged the GC version with a few extras.)