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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
Ether_Snake
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Gallbaro said:
Exactly.
I sell because I think you will. You sell because you think I will
RumblingRosco
Member
I think I'm going for AHR on Monday as early as possible. I bought in very foolishly at ~$6, about time to average that down massively.
Fun Factor
Formerly FTWer
Deku Tree said:
Weren't some people talking about a sub 4,000 DOW when the crisis started? 6,000 seems like a month+ away.
ALeperMessiah
Member
I've decided to focus more on dividend plays, today i bought into MO and increased my position in NLY with some dead money i had in other mutual funds. MO has a 8+% div yield, NLY has a 14+%. Both div's are relatively safe imo, with NLY being the bigger risk because it's a REIT. I picked to truly awful mutual funds though, so this is a much better alternative.
Now is the test of your stomach. If you can handle this, you can handle anything.
Personally, my portfolio looks like this:
20% FEDBX, safe and boring mutual fund
20% VVVAZ, Jan 2011 calls on AMD (2.50 strike)
15% WFOAZ, Jan 2010 calls on F (2.50 strike)
40% VNQ (REIT ETF)
5% STEM (common stock)
Not a single day-trader position in it, and all long positions. There is quite a bit of risk, but it is carefully calculated and moderated and is more likely than not to come out in the wash.
Personally, my portfolio looks like this:
20% FEDBX, safe and boring mutual fund
20% VVVAZ, Jan 2011 calls on AMD (2.50 strike)
15% WFOAZ, Jan 2010 calls on F (2.50 strike)
40% VNQ (REIT ETF)
5% STEM (common stock)
Not a single day-trader position in it, and all long positions. There is quite a bit of risk, but it is carefully calculated and moderated and is more likely than not to come out in the wash.
Ether_Snake
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I don't have the details (don't feel like loging in my account) but I have:
ATVI
CGT
BHI
HON
STP
I think something like 45% in CGT, followed by ATVI and BHI, then HON then STP.
I remeber when we were at around 7600 to 8000, Roubini and others were saying we'd probably get another 15% to 20% drop. To the low 6000s is likely IMO, but like I said before I am 100% pessimistic as long as the trade deficit with China is not adressed. Until they tackle that, the US economy will never manage to truly turn around. It might rally but nothing that would last more than two or three years.
EDIT: Also:
Pension bombs going off
ATVI
CGT
BHI
HON
STP
I think something like 45% in CGT, followed by ATVI and BHI, then HON then STP.
I remeber when we were at around 7600 to 8000, Roubini and others were saying we'd probably get another 15% to 20% drop. To the low 6000s is likely IMO, but like I said before I am 100% pessimistic as long as the trade deficit with China is not adressed. Until they tackle that, the US economy will never manage to truly turn around. It might rally but nothing that would last more than two or three years.
EDIT: Also:
Pension bombs going off
Anyone have their post crap hole portfolio in mind.
Typically financials are the horse to bet on afterwords but I am so confused as to the future of mega banks that I doubt the same would be true here.
The only one I can fathom is to try and take advantage of delayed effect of the stimulus, and go infrastructure 2.0 and China.
Typically financials are the horse to bet on afterwords but I am so confused as to the future of mega banks that I doubt the same would be true here.
The only one I can fathom is to try and take advantage of delayed effect of the stimulus, and go infrastructure 2.0 and China.
Beer Monkey
Member
"Do you have any idea how much money can be lost by guessing where the bottom is?"
- Beer Monkey, 10/09/2008
Commodities.
- Beer Monkey, 10/09/2008
Gallbaro said:
Commodities.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123595172956305055.html
I swear, ever single company in the financial sector has let greed ruin their companies. I like how after the fact they realize that what they were doing was bad for their business.
ALeperMessiah
Member
WingM@n said:
Down 275 with a little over half an hour left. We might hit low 6000s by the end of this week if we keep this up.
ALeperMessiah
Member
xero273 said:
It is a better indicator, and it's close to 700, which i think is a major technical level of resistance for it. I know 741 was important, and that's been destroyed. I hope we can hold on 700, but it's going to be tough imo.
Who was the first one who said that below 7500 there is no bottom? I'd like to reward you with some worthless stock you Chicken Little.
One thing can be said, we are living in some very interesting times indeed. I'm just gonna try and savor it at best I can. I'm gonna keep buying, and with some luck, the market bounces back and I get rich on the misery of many. PEACE.
One thing can be said, we are living in some very interesting times indeed. I'm just gonna try and savor it at best I can. I'm gonna keep buying, and with some luck, the market bounces back and I get rich on the misery of many. PEACE.
Now that it's March, Zecco has changed their policy. You only get 10 free trades each month if you perform 25 or more trades in that month. Pretty lame, eventhough the $4.50 is still cheap for a commission. Is Scottrade a good option to move to now? I'd pay a couple dollars more per trade if things are more responsive than Zecco. IMO, their site is too damn slow and has too many technical problems for them to end their previous promotion.
I was going to wait until later this year to go to Bank of America, but my equity has decided to firmly retreat in the wrong direction, so there's no real benefit to making that move yet. Should I just stick with Zecco until my equity earns me the commission-free trades with Bank of America? PEACE.
I was going to wait until later this year to go to Bank of America, but my equity has decided to firmly retreat in the wrong direction, so there's no real benefit to making that move yet. Should I just stick with Zecco until my equity earns me the commission-free trades with Bank of America? PEACE.
RumblingRosco
Member
I will never understand what is going on with AHR. Sooner or later I'll buy more of it, though. :lol
perfectchaos007
Member
Damn. I'm starting to worry that some of these stocks will never recover to what they were last year. My college fund stock has dropped over 60% in the past year. Yeah my parents were stupid and invested all my college fund in one stock
Oh well, its only a loss of $20,000. I can make that up in a few years work. Oh fuck they're aren't any jobs. FFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUU
Oh well, its only a loss of $20,000. I can make that up in a few years work. Oh fuck they're aren't any jobs. FFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUU
perfectchaos007 said:Damn. I'm starting to worry that some of these stocks will never recover to what they were last year. My college fund stock has dropped over 60% in the past year. Yeah my parents were stupid and invested all my college fund in one stock
Oh well, its only a loss of $20,000. I can make that up in a few years work. Oh fuck they're aren't any jobs. FFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUU
My answer to there being no jobs at all:
Make your own, and along the way make some for others. =)
perfectchaos007
Member
Relix said:
I talked to some Ron Paul supporters who want to make their own community with their own currency (silver/Gold) and their own trade system. That seems too crazy right now but if our money does become worthless and no jobs are available then we may have to just all "start over"
Fun Factor
Formerly FTWer
perfectchaos007 said:
Bison dollars?
Ether_Snake
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My 401K (Canadian equivalent) performed 17.90% in 2008 (19% annualized)! Go figure how that happened! I was expecting to go in the negatives. In 2007 it performed 1.76% I didn't change anything.
I sure wish I had contributed MORE In fact I probably will now that the indexes are so low.
Do you guys think I should move the money I've made so far in a safe account? I'm not vary savvy as far as 401Ks work. I'm thinking I should transfer the money away, and continue to contribute to it, but basically as such I will have at least saved my current monies before they tank (if they do)? Then again since we are probably closer to a bottom now, I'd think it would be fine to keep it there?
The thing is I'm puzzled as to why it would have performed 1.76% in 2007 when we had a good year, and 19% in 2008 as the stocks went south!
I didn't change anything.I sure wish I had contributed MORE
In fact I probably will now that the indexes are so low.Do you guys think I should move the money I've made so far in a safe account? I'm not vary savvy as far as 401Ks work. I'm thinking I should transfer the money away, and continue to contribute to it, but basically as such I will have at least saved my current monies before they tank (if they do)? Then again since we are probably closer to a bottom now, I'd think it would be fine to keep it there?
The thing is I'm puzzled as to why it would have performed 1.76% in 2007 when we had a good year, and 19% in 2008 as the stocks went south!
Ether_Snake
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Javaman said:
Sorry but it's sadly more nasty than this. What you invest in is almost entirely related to how well the US is doing. Right now the debt is growing without merit because money is being burned on bad banks, while the true root cause of the crisis (falling purchasing power in parallel to outsourcing, which was only hidden under a blanket of credit) is not being addressed. It could take a long time before the people in Washington and Wall Street admit that they fucked up and didn't commit themselves to the real problems the way they should have, and by then it might be too late.
It's a whole new world ahead, not a loop.
Progress is made daily. Heck, I visit http://www.physorg.com/ ever day and there are countless breakthroughs revealed every few hours, but for as long as the ILLUSION created by massive allowance of credit is not addressed the economy will not recuperate and the impact of all these breakthroughs will be delayed.
Ultimately, like I said before, what I expect is a "Great Balancing Act", like an "Act of God" but on an economic scale, one that we can only channel but not prevent, between the US and China. Cost of life and purchasing power in the US will fall, cost of life and purchasing power in China will rise, until an equilibrium is reached. As long as the trade between China and the US continues as it has, this is unavoidable IMO, and you can imagine what it implies for our standard of living.
If the trade deficit is seriously addressed, then I will be optimistic about the US again.
Ether_Snake said:My 401K (Canadian equivalent) performed 17.90% in 2008 (19% annualized)! Go figure how that happened! I was expecting to go in the negatives. In 2007 it performed 1.76%
Mine was something like -45% :lol I'm just leaving it in there and continuing contributions to the extent I can afford (not much). Since I won't have real access for another 30 years, it's impossible to predict what the best move is. I'll just leave it in and take on the risk and see where it ends up.
perfectchaos007 said:
I can agree with many of the things that Ron Paul says, but dammit gold and silver are just are arbitrary as paper. At least one of the assets the dollar is implicitly backed by today is Oil, a commodity with a tangible value which is mostly derived from consumption.
Ether_Snake
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Yeah gold is has no value, but it is just more stable because it is not used significantly enough for its value to change rapidly, so it makes sense to use it to back a currency to some extent.
If you back the US dollar by oil or another commodity that is tied to the health of the economy/demand, then as soon as demand falls like in the current recession the value of the USD would fall along with it.
If you back the US dollar by oil or another commodity that is tied to the health of the economy/demand, then as soon as demand falls like in the current recession the value of the USD would fall along with it.
ALeperMessiah
Member
kathode said:
I don't know, might be related to the other thread that talks about how people are buying a lot of june puts that are so far out of the money they're betting on bankruptcy.
I heard a guy on CNBC say in a very nice way that GE credit is fully loaded with Toxic Waste and all their Executives are lying.
The fact that they cut the dividend when they had been swearing they wouldn't doesn't breed confidence in their honesty.
If their exec's want to breed confidence in the stock they should be willing to buy ALOT more than 50k shares at 8 bucks a pop. That's like toilet paper money for them.
Class action lawsuit too: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/2207196/
The fact that they cut the dividend when they had been swearing they wouldn't doesn't breed confidence in their honesty.
If their exec's want to breed confidence in the stock they should be willing to buy ALOT more than 50k shares at 8 bucks a pop. That's like toilet paper money for them.
Class action lawsuit too: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/2207196/
Does anyone have a good resource for how to invest in 401ks? Fidelity specifically?
I'm talking real layman's terms. Or just advice from people who are avoid deep negatives on personal rates of return. I haven't been contributing for long, but I basically lost all the money my jobs matches me with and it's only 3 months in 2008 and I'm -4 on my Personal Rate of Return.
I think I have a 60% invested in stocks and 40% in bonds. I'm only 24 (25 in april) so I have a ways to go before i need it but if I keep losing all the extra money my company gives me and the dividends from the investments... maybe I'd have been better off putting the money in my high yield savings account (that has a quickly decreasing interest rate )
I know it's not as easy as "invest your money here, here and here" but I don't think I can wrap my head around all these terms and such. I'd like it to be simple. Like "These investment choices are stocks, these are bonds, these are mutual funds. It might be a good idea to have a large investment in stocks" or something.
I don't plan on chickening out and decreasing my investments. And I understand roughing it out till things bounce back, but if there's something I could shift investment wise to help the situation...
I'm talking real layman's terms. Or just advice from people who are avoid deep negatives on personal rates of return. I haven't been contributing for long, but I basically lost all the money my jobs matches me with and it's only 3 months in 2008 and I'm -4 on my Personal Rate of Return.
I think I have a 60% invested in stocks and 40% in bonds. I'm only 24 (25 in april) so I have a ways to go before i need it but if I keep losing all the extra money my company gives me and the dividends from the investments... maybe I'd have been better off putting the money in my high yield savings account (that has a quickly decreasing interest rate
)I know it's not as easy as "invest your money here, here and here" but I don't think I can wrap my head around all these terms and such. I'd like it to be simple. Like "These investment choices are stocks, these are bonds, these are mutual funds. It might be a good idea to have a large investment in stocks" or something.
I don't plan on chickening out and decreasing my investments. And I understand roughing it out till things bounce back, but if there's something I could shift investment wise to help the situation...
Put it in a Money Market Fund.
People will tell you that the problem is that not many people will be able to predict the rebound, just like very few accurately predicted either the downturn or the severity of it. And the few people who did predict the downturn will probably not be among the few people who accurately predict the upturn.
When things come back, they will come back fast and hard and if your not in the market you will miss a big part of the upside. On the other hand, if you are in the market you make keep getting wiped out for a long time... It's a gamble.
People will tell you that the problem is that not many people will be able to predict the rebound, just like very few accurately predicted either the downturn or the severity of it. And the few people who did predict the downturn will probably not be among the few people who accurately predict the upturn.
When things come back, they will come back fast and hard and if your not in the market you will miss a big part of the upside. On the other hand, if you are in the market you make keep getting wiped out for a long time... It's a gamble.
Question:
I have $3,000 right now and I was going to put it into my RRSP's, but I just got a reply from my banker saying he suggests that if I am not planning on using this money to purchase a home in the next 5 years, that I put it into my existing managed balanced growth portfolio instead, or alternatively lock it back into a GIC account for x amount of years.
Suggestions GAF?
I have $3,000 right now and I was going to put it into my RRSP's, but I just got a reply from my banker saying he suggests that if I am not planning on using this money to purchase a home in the next 5 years, that I put it into my existing managed balanced growth portfolio instead, or alternatively lock it back into a GIC account for x amount of years.
Suggestions GAF?
I mentioned back on Fed 7th. that GE was on the list of biggest Alt-A lenders. That should have been your cue to short their stock. It is down a little over 40% since that post. U guys should listen to me more often. You would have made alot of money in '09 if you did.kathode said: