• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Ovid

Member
gkrykewy said:
I don't get it - both CAE and CGT show as being traded today on google finance, and didn't do much.
The day I said CGT was a buy was on Feb. 2nd, it closed that day at $5.64. The stock hit a high today of $6.30 (around a 12% gain...not bad). I told u guys to buy STEM on Jan 2nd, it closed that day at $1.43. That stock hit a 52 week high of $3.07 on Jan 26th (approx 115% gain). So in less than two months I told all of u guys to buy a stock and both times they rose in less than 3 weeks. I credit Ether_Snake for letting me take notice of CAE.
 

Ovid

Member
tarius1210 said:
Damn it!!! I hate that I have to decide whether to buy or sell a stock before I go to work. I see this stock opening (or closing) between the price I initially was looking for in my previous post on Wednesday, between $6.20 - $6.30.
CGT last trade AH $6.25. I'm getting good at this :D
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
gkrykewy said:
I don't get it - both CAE and CGT show as being traded today on google finance, and didn't do much.

No, the trading started at like 3pm, after the meeting. Before that it wasn't trading. CAE ticker on NYSE is another company (Cascade).

CAE = CGT on NYSE, CAE on TSX.
 

toxicgonzo

Taxes?! Isn't this the line for Metallica?

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Not that I know, but I remember someone being interested in buyign some.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/02152009/news/regionalnews/madoff_wall_of_silence_155259.htm

Senior executives at some of Wall Street's biggest firms were convinced Bernard Madoff was a fraud as early as 2005 - yet none alerted authorities, documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission reveal.

As Jesse's Café Américain said:

Here's a news flash. There is no way that the top execs on Wall Street did not know Bernie Madoff was running a scam. No way.

Why? Because once they heard he was pulling down those kinds of returns in all types of markets they would have had their own whiz kids climbing up his company's investment portfolio looking to see how he did it. They would want to do it too. It took Markopolos how many minutes to figure out it wasn't legitimate?

But now you know why so few Wall Street firms lost any money with Madoff despite his 'superior returns.'

Why did they keep quiet? Professional courtesy amongst scumbags is not likely, because there isn't any. More likely Bernie knew about some of their frauds, and that made him untouchable.

If they dig deeply enough they might find the real truth behind the Madoff scam, and it won't be pretty. This is no lone trader operation.

We may never hear the details behind this scam. It might shake our confidence in the system.
 

Pimpwerx

Member
I have money to buy, but I'm trigger-shy right now. We're dangerously close to 7500. There's been support(?) there, but have we reached the breaking point? Everything I own is down right now. Not that I didn't expect something like this to happen, but there aren't the crazy (and lucrative) daily swings like Nov/Dec, so it looks like I'll be waiting for a bit.

What's a surefire company that won't be going bankrupt this year? Everything will come back in time, but that's assuming there aren't lots of bankruptcies. I don't know about that anymore. Zale could be in some serious trouble. I don't see a lot of solars surviving the worldwide massacre. BankAtlantic is stinking up the joint on a mixture of insider trading and wtf knows. The only thing I'm holding right now, that looks to have a future, is Citi, and only b/c the government seems hellbent on giving them money. If the banks are nationalized, I assume it'll be one of the first ones, which would suck even worse. What can I invest in without having to worry about them filing for bankruptcy this year? PEACE.
 
Any company with a large cash flow and good business model should be fine.

As far as sectors, Biotech is actually doing quite well. I might advise checking out the generic drug companies. TEVA, for example, just posted good earnings and good forecast.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Well like I said before I am waiting to see front page articles about the crisis and its impact on China. Until I see that, unless China pulls of a miracle, I'll believe we're not close to the bottom.

Too many people are being laid off worldwide for this not to lead to some massive transformations, transformations we haven't even seen the hint of so far. Things will change permanently, but for that to happen there would be really serious consequences that we haven't seen yet. Right now is still a fall, but I don't see how we could go up again without landing, and that landing at this point can only be a crash. I was optimistic the US could pull off the right moves, but it is obviously corrupted from head to toe.
 

Ovid

Member
In the past few months, an increasing number of economists have become convinced that the best "fix" for the banking system is a government takeover and restructuring of companies like Citigroup. And some voices in the government are finally supporting this idea.

Over the weekend, Senator Lindsey Graham said he thought "nationalization" has to be considered, because he doesn't want to throw good money after bad.

What would this mean, exactly? The government running our banks for the next decade?

No, says our guest Chris Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics. "Nationalization" is a poor word to describe the process. "Receivership and restructuring," along the lines of what the FDIC did with WaMu, is the right way to think about it.

The biggest concern of those opposed to the RECEIVERSHIP route is that the debt markets will seize up again as debtholders realize that their capital is at risk. Chris Whalen thinks this fear is overblown.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/181000/Analyst-%22Nationalization%22-of-Citi-and-BofA-Inevitable-in-%2709?tickers=^dji,c,bac,wfc,jpm,^gspc

I think nationalization would be the best thing for banks right now. When the economy starts to turn around and the banks balance sheets are cleansed of these ''toxic'' assets, then the banks could go back to business as usual (with a bit more regulation of course).
 

Pimpwerx

Member
tarius1210 said:
I think nationalization would be the best thing for banks right now. When the economy starts to turn around and the banks balance sheets are cleansed of these ''toxic'' assets, then the banks could go back to business as usual (with a bit more regulation of course).
Well fuck me in the goat ass. That's not gonna end well for me, is it? What happens to shareholders if something like this happens? PEACE.
 

Ovid

Member
Pimpwerx said:
Well fuck me in the goat ass. That's not gonna end well for me, is it? What happens to shareholders if something like this happens? PEACE.
Unfortunately, you guys will be wiped out. The same thing that is happening with GM will happen will with the banks. They will keep asking the government for bailout money. It's so stupid. Just let the government take over and end it.
 

Ovid

Member
The government pretty much forced BofA to purchase Merrill and now they're in shitter because of it. Besides, the credit markets r already frozen, so it can't freeze up anymore, right?
 

gkryhewy

Member
Pimpwerx said:
Well fuck me in the goat ass.

Major props for that reference - you made me lol. PEACE.

Ether_Snake said:
Well like I said before I am waiting to see front page articles about the crisis and its impact on China. Until I see that, unless China pulls of a miracle, I'll believe we're not close to the bottom.

Too many people are being laid off worldwide for this not to lead to some massive transformations, transformations we haven't even seen the hint of so far. Things will change permanently, but for that to happen there would be really serious consequences that we haven't seen yet. Right now is still a fall, but I don't see how we could go up again without landing, and that landing at this point can only be a crash. I was optimistic the US could pull off the right moves, but it is obviously corrupted from head to toe.

My friend is in India right now and he says that, surprisingly, all of the Asian press is rather positive, and comparing this downturn favorably to the last Asian downturn. I dunno what to make of this.
 

Ovid

Member
WASHINGTON -- Citing a "continued sharp contraction in real economic activity," the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday said it is expecting gross domestic product to contract by up to 1.3% in 2009, a larger drop than it had forecast in October.

The FOMC is now projecting the economy will drop anywhere from 0.5% to 1.3% in 2009. Back in October, members were more sanguine, projecting a range of a 0.2% fall to an increase of 1.1%.

That contraction would be followed by GDP growth of 2.5% to 3.3% in 2010 and growth of 3.8% to 5% in 2011, minutes ...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123497955720814011.html
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
I found the minutes to be very surprising and I`m not sure why more people aren`t paying attention to it. It wasn`t a surprise that they lowered their `09 GDP expectations. What shocked me was they increased their 2010 and 2011 growth estimates big time.
 

gkryhewy

Member
RSTEIN said:
I found the minutes to be very surprising and I`m not sure why more people aren`t paying attention to it. It wasn`t a surprise that they lowered their `09 GDP expectations. What shocked me was they increased their 2010 and 2011 growth estimates big time.

Whistling past the graveyard?
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
gkrykewy said:
Major props for that reference - you made me lol. PEACE.



My friend is in India right now and he says that, surprisingly, all of the Asian press is rather positive, and comparing this downturn favorably to the last Asian downturn. I dunno what to make of this.

Actually I haven't heard anything major from India, aren't doing fine compared to most countries?

But for China, I just don't believe they can managed to do the necessary transformation their economy will need to make up for the fall of demand from the US and the rest of the world, without imploding. I think there could be a strong rally for the Chinese economy during that initial period, but a very hard fall soon after. China can't self-sustain, they really need the US demand, but it will never return even close to what it was (unless jobs come back to the US).

BTW how is inflation going to help the average American, can anyone explain that? And how will the feds achieve this?
 

Ovid

Member
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C - News) shares fell to almost 18-year lows on Thursday, with Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC - News) stock also plunging, amid renewed fears that growing losses could lead to government control of troubled U.S. banks, wiping out shareholders.

In addition, insurance companies' stocks plummeted -- led by Hartford Financial Services Group (NYSE:HIG - News) -- as declining stock and bond market values added to concerns about weakening investment portfolios and capital positions.

"When you talk about nationalization you hear the names Citi and Bank of America as the top two names burning out," said Walter Todd, a portfolio manager at Greenwood Capital Associates, which holds shares of Bank of America.

Bank of America dropped 7 percent to $4.25 on the New York Stock Exchange at mid-afternoon, while Citigroup fell 10 percent to $2.62 after touching $2.50 -- its lowest level since July 1991.

The KBW Financial index (Philadelphia:^BKX - News) fell 3.59 percent to 22.58 after touching a 17-year low.

Last month, Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC - News) posted its first quarterly loss in 17 years, after mounting losses at recently acquired Merrill Lynch. Citigroup has lost $28.5 billion in the last 15 months, hammered by bad debts and toxic assets.

Each bank received $45 billion in government aid in recent months and a backstop on toxic assets-related losses, more than their current market value.

The U.S. Treasury is expected in coming weeks to subject up to 25 banks with assets exceeding $100 billion each to "stress tests" to decide which banks need additional capital.

And support for nationalizing troubled banks seems to be growing. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has said nationalization could be an option, while former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said government intervention could be the least bad alternative left for policymakers.

"People are afraid of the government at this point. The market is selling off on the lack of information. Tell us something, please," said Anton Schutz, president of Mendon Capital.

INSURERS SINK

Investors' fears also hit insurers stocks, with the KBW Insurance index (Philadelphia:^KIX - News) down 3.65 percent to 58.05.

Insurance companies have massive investment portfolios that fund their ultimate liabilities. As markets were hurt on Thursday, investors grew concerned that insurers' investment portfolios would be hit.

"Today seems to be 'Sell Everything Financial,'" Schutz said.

American International Group's (NYSE:AIG - News) shares plummeted 16.4 percent to 61 cents, and Hartford Financial stock was down 19.3 percent at $8.26.

Prudential Financial (NYSE:pRU - News) fell 15.2 percent to $19.17 as Fitch Ratings downgraded the insurers' senior unsecured debt rating to "BBB" from "A-" due to its exposure to the volatile credit and investment markets conditions.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/BofA-and-Citi-shares-fall-on-rb-14414973.html
BAC and C down 10% today
 

Ovid

Member
I'm making another prediction:

GERN is oversold. It is currently trading at $5.57.
24g3ton.jpg
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Why is Goldman Sachs always doing fine, even on such days?
 

Ovid

Member
Ether_Snake said:
Why is Goldman Sachs always doing fine, even on such days?
A Bloomberg anylast says that they will "actually" be profitable this quarter because they raised rates on securities trading.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
But I'm wondering why THAT financial institution is doing fine. Don't tell me they just happen to have really good management. Anything those guys knew everyone knew, and vice-versa.

EDIT: Nikkei continues to fall. So it looks like I was right when I said last week that this was the way down. At least I added to BHI instead of other stuff, the only thing I have that could go up in the near future. But not enough to make money.
 
Ether, my friend, you're way too pessimistic. I'm not saying that we're not going to see some lows coming up here, but my god man, every single post of yours makes reference to the end of the world!

This isn't the first recession we've been through and it won't be the last.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Yeah I wasn't "there" last time but I don't believe this is close to what we've seen in the past 30 years. Americans have been losing jobs continuously for years (the official numbers are misleading), and true purchasing power has been going down over that time. China's economy is based on an unsustainable level of demand from the US. That demand was only possible thanks to easy access to massive amounts of credits. The very idea of a massive trade deficit with China COULD NOT have happened without the massive access to credit because without that the process of producing cheaper goods overseas at the cost of US jobs would have been unsustainable at first sight.

So basically everyone's expectations are based on what was merely an big illusion. It is unlike what we've lived through before. We are trying to bring the economy back to a level it cannot return to unless we all decide to play the same game when we already all know the outcome.

I don't see it as pessimistic, I see it as realistic. The US will not return to its past levels of consumption, unless there is once again excessive credit/loans access, which wouldn't last for long (takes probably half the time for a bubble identical to a previous one to crash, because of the learned-lesson factor).

I really think we are seeing an averaging of income/purchasing power/standard of living between two poles (US and China). It is a balance-inclined result, like anything else in nature.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
STP has gotten completely crushed over the past two days. Now down at 7, it was at 9 when it first started trading a few years ago.
 

Seth C

Member
kathode said:
Futures down over 100 points right now. New lows ahead.

When the market was up and down yesterday near close, I was curious to see if it would manage to close under 7500. When it did, I figured that would lead to a drop today as investors would lose support for that number. Interesting to see where we will be at after today.

Also, that crazy guy and his predictions. Um, was he now just a week off?
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
While the Dow closing below its previous close is important, remember that the S&P500 is a much, much more important index. The Dow is a price-weighted index. As such, most of its move is dictacted by high-priced stocks, like IBM. Dow components like GM, BAC, GE, etc., really don't have an impact on the index anymore. 90% of professional traders use the SP500.

The significant even to watch out for is close below 750. Right now the market seems determined to test that low. We may or may not. Who knows.

According to my numbers, which I base all my trades off, the market is significantly oversold. In fact, we're more oversold now than we were back in November. I would normally be loading up on call options right now but the fact that bank nationalization seems like a very real possibility means I have to go slow. I believe the market is either going to have a massive rally (assuming we hold the Nov low) or is going to have a swift crash. When the market is THIS oversold, those are really the only two possible outcomes.

I'm 90% cash right now. I own BDK, UPS, SO, PM, PG, and AVY calls. I own AKAM puts.
 

Pimpwerx

Member
Man, I've got a few grand coming in next week, and it looks to me like there is going to be some real bargains available. I just don't know if I have the guts to buy anything right now. I've been getting mauled by bears all year. :lol PEACE.
 

kathode

Member
Seth C said:
Also, that crazy guy and his predictions. Um, was he now just a week off?

A dead clock is still right twice a day :lol I didn't think a 1000-point drop was too far-fetched, but falling that much within two or three days was somewhat unlikely.
 

Ovid

Member
This stock has been holding steady at the $7 - 8 range for the past month. I would so short this stock (if I had a margin account).
 

LJ11

Member
RSTEIN said:
Doug Kass just posted that JC Flowers considering capital infusion into BAC.

I'm not near a television, but I'm guessing it's in return for preferred. That's quite ballsy, or he knows something the rest of us don't, or it's just another rumor.
 
Top Bottom