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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Ovid

Member
March 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. housing starts in February unexpectedly snapped the longest streak of declines in 18 years, raising optimism the market may be finally finding a floor.

Work began on 583,000 homes at an annual rate, a 22 percent increase from January that was propelled by a surge in condominiums, apartments and townhouses, Commerce Department figures in Washington showed today. A separate report showed gains in producer prices slowed, underscoring a lack of inflationary pressures with the economy in a recession.

“It’s a bit too early to get too excited, but we are nearing the bottom in housing,” said Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, who had forecast an increase in starts.

The lifting gloom pushed up builder shares, led by gains at Toll Brothers Inc., the nation’s largest developer of luxury homes, and Miami-based Lennar Corp. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Supercomposite Homebuilding Index advanced 3.7 percent to 184.19 at 12:09 p.m. in New York.

Building permits, a sign of future construction, rose less than starts, indicating construction may again slow. Developers are still contending with record foreclosures that depress prices and profits, and put pressure on the Federal Reserve, which meets today and tomorrow, and the Obama administration to solve the credit crisis.

Starts were projected to fall to a 450,000 annual pace, according to the median forecast of 71 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from 400,000 to 500,000. January’s starts were revised up to 477,000 from a previously estimated 466,000.

More Permits

Permits increased 3 percent to a 547,000 annual pace. They were forecast to drop to a 500,000 annual rate, according to the survey median.

“You get the sense from a lot of the data coming out now that we’re beginning to get to a bottom,” Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “We’re not quite there yet.”

The Labor Department reported wholesale prices rose 0.1 percent in February as the cost of energy products, cigarettes, light trucks and household appliances increased.

The increase was less than forecast and followed a 0.8 percent advance in January. Excluding food and fuel, so-called core prices rose 0.2 percent.

Compared with February 2008, producer prices were down 1.3 percent.

Slack, Prices

“There’s just a huge amount of slack now in the U.S. economy and the global economy” that’s keeping prices down, said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida. “That’s going to hang around for some time.”

Economists predict Labor will report tomorrow that consumer prices increased 0.3 percent in February for a second month. January’s gain was the first in six months. Excluding food and energy costs, consumer prices rose 0.1 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week that the central bank is “not anticipating deflation,” or a prolonged drop in prices that hurts profits and makes it difficult to repay loans.

“We are committed to price stability, we believe we have the tools in place to do that,” Bernanke said March 10 in response to a question after a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. “Right now both the objectives for price stability and the objectives for growth are pointing in the same direction and that is for strong support of the economy.”

Other Measures

Fed policy makers will keep the benchmark interest rate near zero following their two-day meeting tomorrow and discuss additional measures to calm the credit crisis, economists said.

Bernanke and his colleagues are examining whether to expand existing asset-purchase and lending programs or initiate fresh measures, such as buying Treasuries. The central bank also is purchasing Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Federal Home Loan Bank debt under a program aimed to reduce mortgage costs.

The Commerce report showed construction of single-family homes climbed 1.1 percent to a 357,000 rate. Work on multifamily homes, such as townhouses and apartment buildings, surged 82 percent to a 226,000 pace from 124,000 in January.

The increase in starts was led by an 89 percent jump in the Northeast.

Banks need to “go the extra mile” and keep credit flowing to businesses to prevent the economy from worsening, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in remarks at the White House yesterday. The economy has lost 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007.

President Barack Obama has pledged a $275 billion rescue to help keep as many as 9 million borrowers in their homes and trim foreclosures. His efforts also include a tax break of up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers that wouldn’t require repayment.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abdvnB6vu80E&refer=home

Good to hear. Maybe, just maybe things are starting to turn around.
 
Ether_Snake said:
New-Home Construction Logs Unexpected Gain-

http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=AskdHh...//biz.yahoo.com/ap/090317/housing_starts.html

Good for Soka if I remember right.

EDIT: ERTS up 4%

It is good for me, but I have a ways to go before I even break even on LPX. I bought that stock well after the housing market collapse, but before the complete beating the markets took starting around Oct '08. I'll be holding LPX for a very, very long time.

Still, nice to see some positive news. Let's see this continue every month for the next 10 years and I'll be very happy. :lol
 

Javaman

Member
I thought this article was pretty interesting for people going long.

Now may be a once in a generation change to get great returns.

http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/article/106754/Huge-Generational-Opportunity-Now

I recently had dinner with a client who told me that stocks had not performed well over the last 40 years. At first I suspected that she was generalizing from the recent pummeling equity markets have experienced -- after all, this is a time frame that included two of the biggest bull markets in history! Yet, when I went to the data, I found out that she was absolutely right. The 40 years ending February 2009 were the second worst 40-year period for equities since 1900, with only the 40 years ending December 1941 doing worse!

Let's put this into perspective. The 40 years ending in 1941 included the stock market panic of 1907, which drove down the Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly 38 percent; the World War I Era, where the period between 1910 and 1919 was one of the worst ever for stocks; AND, oh yes, the Great Depression. Finally, icing on the 40-year cake, the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. How could these last 40 years even begin to match that? Alas, they did.

The chart below is a histogram of the average annual real returns for U.S. equities (large stocks) for all 40-year holding periods, with annual data starting in 1900 and monthly data beginning in 1926. There were only three 40-year periods where U.S. stocks returned less than four percent annually -- the 40 years ending December 1941, where they earned a real rate of return of 3.80 percent annually for the previous 40 years; the 40 years ending February 2009 where they earned 3.86 percent annually; and the 40 years ending December 1942, where stocks returned 3.92 percent a year. Keep in mind that's just 0.55 percent of the 545 periods analyzed. We are talking about an event so rare, that most of us alive today will never see such an opportunity again.
46.jpg


The histogram also shows the norm -- stocks returned between 6 and 8 percent a year for 353 periods, or nearly 65 percent of all of the 40-year periods analyzed. Looked at closely, you see that 99.45 percent of all observed 40-year periods, U.S. stocks enjoyed a real rate of return between 4 and 12 percent a year, and that we are now presented with a huge generational opportunity.

<SNIP>

Where Do We Go From Here?

A combination of factors is responsible for the woes of the last 40 years, but one thing has been consistent. When we find ourselves at historic market lows, we are presented with rare opportunities. The world must have looked pretty bleak to investors at the end of 1941 -- in addition to all of the travails endured over the previous 40 years, the United States was entering yet another World War with no certainty of victory. Psychologically, it must have made our current circumstances look trivial in comparison.

Nevertheless, we see little current evidence that encourages us to invest in stocks. We are bombarded on a daily basis with terrifying news of the most recent collapse; a steadily declining stock market with prognosticators predicting more of the same, and if we try to educate ourselves by perusing recent business titles we see that the number one bestselling financial book on Amazon is "The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History." What's more, most of our recent experiences with stocks have been negative. The ten years ending February 2009 -- where the market lost 5.79 percent per year -- were the worst 10-year return for the S&P 500 since 1900, and the recent decline over the last six months was the swiftest for stocks since 1932.

At times like these, the asset class that I believe will prove the least risky over the long term appears to be the riskiest, and vice versa. T-bills have returned virtually nothing to investors over the long-term, and currently yield virtually nothing because they are being priced by short-term fear. You can't get a much better return from longer-term government paper -- the current yield on the 10-year Treasury is 2.87 percent -- and just 1.83 percent on the Treasury inflation-protected TIPS. The histograms below show the 40-year real rates of returns for T-bills and long-term government bonds. Note that, unlike stocks, both have had negative 40-year returns, and long-term government bonds returned losses in 32 percent of the 40-year periods. Indeed, at current yields I believe that Treasuries are the next bubble and that ten years from now, people will rue the day they fled the volatility of the stock market for the "safety" of government bills and bonds.

47.jpg
 

alejob

Member
gkrykewy said:
Should the cycle have permanently turned, preliminary dibs on "I called it" :lol

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=15009395&postcount=13955

I vote you can only claim you called it IF you put money down that day! No guts no glory.

WingM@n said:
So the bear market rally (a.k.a. suckersrally )is in progress, don't believe for one second this will last. I think by april the Dow has dropped 1000 + points.

Not saying, you are right or wrong but people with this attitude are the ones who will miss the boat.
 

Ether_Snake

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Javaman said:
I thought this article was pretty interesting for people going long.

Now may be a once in a generation change to get great returns.

But this isn't a cycle. Things change, the value of the US dollar could tank significantly, we don't know what China's position will be in the future, especially less so with the US, etc. It's one thing to say markets will eventually recover, it's another to say that the companies you invest in will follow.

What you will actually invest in will make all the difference, and there's nothing certain so far.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
lol, why are so many people in this thread eager to claim they called the bottom? Don't worry about it. Just go with the flow. Buy when stocks are going up and short when they're going down. The rest doesn't matter :D
 

Ether_Snake

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Still wondering what to buy this week. Probably HON, since I need to bring my value per shares down (any name for that?).

Hopefully I'll see some red before then, but I'm not gonna try to fish for the bottom anyway, I think what I have is worth something 35 or 40$ a share:p

EDIT: BTW anyone surprised at the lack of mergers or buyouts?
 
alejob said:
Not saying, you are right or wrong but people with this attitude are the ones who will miss the boat.

I agree. This is once in a lifetime chance IMO. There are so many high-quality stocks that are so cheap it is ridiculous. Blue-chip companies even with positive quarters, are still getting beatdown because of the bear raid by short traders.

Some stocks are at their all-time low right now. This presents an opportunity to buy them very cheap, especially considering that some have low P/E ratios.

People question "when or where is the bottom" for their lack of entry into the market, too scared to pull the trigger so to speak.

As for me, I'm willing to take a chance and increase positions in my portfolio for possible great returns in the future.

You are supposed to buy low, sell high. I noticed the majority of people who enter the stock market only enter after it is on a run, meaning they bought high.

Then when the market goes down, they sell, which is completely the opposite of what you should be doing.
 
Ether_Snake said:
Still wondering what to buy this week. Probably HON, since I need to bring my value per shares down (any name for that?).

Hopefully I'll see some red before then, but I'm not gonna try to fish for the bottom anyway, I think what I have is worth something 35 or 40$ a share:p

EDIT: BTW anyone surprised at the lack of mergers or buyouts?

Average down method.
 
Ether_Snake said:
Still wondering what to buy this week. Probably HON, since I need to bring my value per shares down (any name for that?).

Hopefully I'll see some red before then, but I'm not gonna try to fish for the bottom anyway, I think what I have is worth something 35 or 40$ a share:p

EDIT: BTW anyone surprised at the lack of mergers or buyouts?

That's what I did from the start with my mutual funds. Put in 10% of the principal amount every month since I bought it. Probably going to keep doing that until I feel it becomes too significant of a portion of my total investments.

And yeah, average down method.
 

Ether_Snake

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AHR dowsn 37%.

ADBE up 5%.

We can expect the Nasdaq to go up on merger/buyout hype.
 

Ovid

Member
Damn, didn't pull the trigger on SNDK or BAC. I haven't invested a few weeks and I didn't pull the trigger on SNDK or BAC at the market open. I'm trying to make a quick profit today.
Is anyone going to play JAVA (extremely risky)?
 
tarius1210 said:
I'm still down over 90% with this stock (I purchased it 5 years ago).

yeah, i'm still down as well, but not that much. I bought at .47. It's just nice to see it up after being down to .05 just 5 weeks ago.
 

Tarazet

Member
My Ford Jan 2010 calls are up huge. They had been lagging behind the movement in the stock, but no more. I'm up over 30% on them now.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Ether_Snake said:
EDIT: BTW anyone surprised at the lack of mergers or buyouts?

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- IBM is in talks to buy Sun Microsystems Inc., sources with knowledge of the matter said, a move that could bolster the technology giant against rivals in the high-end computer server market.

International Business Machines Corp. is offering to pay at least $6.5 billion, or double Sun's Tuesday closing price of $4.97, The Wall Street Journal reported online earlier. Shares of Sun (JAVA, Fortune 500) jumped 64% in pre-market trading to $8.16, while IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) shares fell 2% to $90.89.

If they reach a deal, it would be IBM's largest-ever acquisition, and represent a departure from its recent strategy of focusing on deals to strengthen its software and services businesses, rather than hardware.


You were saying.....


http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/18/tec...systems.reut/index.htm?postversion=2009031810
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Fannie Mae Refinancing Volume Jumps to $41 Billion in February


Company Foresees Continued Increases; Introduces Online Look-Up Tool


WASHINGTON, March 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) announced on Wednesday that the company's refinancing volume jumped to more than $41 billion in February, nearly three times the refinancing volume the company experienced during the month of January and the largest refinancing volume in nearly a year.


"Borrowers are increasingly taking advantage of the low mortgage rates available in the market today," said Tom Lund, Executive Vice President, Single-Family Mortgage Business. "We anticipate that volumes will increase even more as millions of additional homeowners become eligible to refinance under the President's Making Home Affordable plan. Providing broader access to affordable, sustainable mortgages through expanded refinancing opportunities is a critical part of preventing future foreclosures and hastening recovery."


The company also disclosed that more than 100,000 borrowers have accessed its online mailbox to inquire about their eligibility for refinancing under the Obama Administration's refinancing plan, and about 50,000 callers have contacted Fannie Mae's national hotline since the plan was announced. In addition, today the company launched a new online look-up tool on the company's Web site (www.fanniemae.com) that will allow borrowers to quickly determine if they have a Fannie Mae-held mortgage -- a determining factor in whether a borrower is eligible for the program.


Home Affordable Refinance

Fannie Mae launched its Home Affordable Refinance initiative earlier this month as part of the President's Making Home Affordable plan. Key features include:



Additional Flexibilities: Most borrowers refinancing an existing Fannie Mae loan will not be required to buy new or additional mortgage insurance if the loan at the time of the refinance is more than 80 percent of the home's value. Existing mortgage insurance must be carried forward to the new loan. In addition, Fannie Mae can refinance loans up to 105 percent of a home's value with this new flexibility, so even borrowers who are "underwater" -- who owe more than their home is worth -- may be able to refinance. This will expand the number of borrowers able to take advantage of lower interest rates that reduce monthly payments, or refinance into a more sustainable mortgage.



Streamlined Processing: Beginning April 4, all 1,600 lenders and 29,000 mortgage brokers using Fannie Mae's Desktop Underwriter(R) platform will be able to process an application to refinance any existing Fannie Mae loan, allowing for greater lender origination capacity, more consumer choice and easier refinancing for borrowers.


What Borrowers Need to Know:


To qualify, your mortgage loan must be owned by Fannie Mae.
You must have a solid payment history on your existing mortgage.
The expanded refinance flexibility ends in June 2010.

http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayR...STORY=/www/story/03-18-2009/0004990781&EDATE=


Looks like things are some what (on a small scale) starting to turn around.
 

Ether_Snake

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ADBE up 10%

goddamn

Anyway, bought some more HON to average down and get that out of the way.
 

Ovid

Member
Hey, I'm pissed too that I didn't buy JAVA when hit $7.70. I was contemplating it when I saw it at $7.50. I would have made an easy $1,200 in one hour. Anyways...my play today was BAC. I had a day off today so I was able to make a quick profit in the markets. I like to day trade financial stocks and since I have work tomorrow, I didn't want to take the risk of holding it (my job blocks my broker's website).
 

Tarazet

Member
Man, Wall Street is really loving this news that Ford and GM have reached a deal for wage parity. Ford's shares are higher than GM's right now.
 

Ovid

Member
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the economy continues to contract. Job losses, declining equity and housing wealth, and tight credit conditions have weighed on consumer sentiment and spending. Weaker sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories and fixed investment. U.S. exports have slumped as a number of major trading partners have also fallen into recession. Although the near term economic outlook is weak, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, together with fiscal and monetary stimulus, will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth.

In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion. Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months. The Federal Reserve has launched the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses and anticipates that the range of eligible collateral for this facility is likely to be expanded to include other financial assets. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial and economic developments.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1FVtsNyCyPU&refer=home

Wow...just like that the markets turn green...awesome
 

Zyzyxxz

Member
tarius1210 said:
Hey, I'm pissed too that I didn't buy JAVA when hit $7.70. I was contemplating it when I saw it at $7.50. I would have made an easy $1,200 in one hour. Anyways...my play today was BAC. I had a day off today so I was able to make a quick profit in the markets. I like to day trade financial stocks and since I have work tomorrow, I didn't want to take the risk of holding it (my job blocks my broker's website).

http://www.businessinsider.com/ibm-offers-to-buy-sun-for-65-billion-2009-3

IBM is gonna offer $10-11 per share so get in now for a quick sell if you want a quick 10-20% return. All cash deal too.

I'm thinking about it.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
sonarrat said:
Man, Wall Street is really loving this news that Ford and GM have reached a deal for wage parity. Ford's shares are higher than GM's right now.


Hey what deal are you talking about?
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
mAcOdIn said:
Earlier Ford renegotiated a contract with the UAW, I guess GM finally did as well.


Good. Did they say how much they were going to save due to this deal?
 
Pouring one out for AHR, haha. I'm guessing I'm totally cooked on this stock, but being down 95% leaves me roughly deciding it isn't even worth trying to save that last 5%. Would rather just hope it hits some brilliant business-world luck and doesn't totally die.

Glad I bought into a few things a week ago, wish I'd put more in though. Still considering Marvel.
 

Tarazet

Member
Not only are my Ford calls now up over 50%, but the Fed is buying back $300B worth of treasuries, which means the value of my FEDBX fund is going to rocket up tonight. Awesome!
 

Tarazet

Member
I sold my F calls (WFOAZ). There was huge volume on them today, and they were trading 50% higher than the last time the stock was at 2.50, so I decided to capitalize on it. I'll decide what to do with the proceeds when they clear.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Well, I'm out (basically). I sold virtually all my long positions/calls at 2:45. I now only have BIG puts, UPS calls (which I'm trying to sell) and PG calls (which I guess I'll hold). The last week was a great ride.
 

Pimpwerx

Member
Everything is coming back, except for Zale. That was my second buy I ever made, and a mistake I'll probably rue to the grave if they go bankrupt. A luxury company in a recession smh. Anyway, I'm actually gonna double-down on that mofo at some point in the coming months if they look to stabilize. People will be back to their excesses as soon as they can. The stock will be worthwhile long-term, I hope.

Anyway, wtf is with the market optimism? Is this another blip before the plunge? Aren't jobless numbers still going to be bad for months to come? I got out of a couple shakey positions a few hundred dollars ahead. The others should turn a better profit if this euphoria continues. But I'm really not sure what there is to be positive about. I feel like I really should hold onto my cash until early April and the fiscal year bloodbath. I don't expect many rosey reports or forecasts, so maybe we'll see 6000 again next month. Thoughts? PEACE.
 

Zyzyxxz

Member
AstroLad said:
Anybody who invested in Citi recently is making out like a bandit! WOW!

serisouly I'm hoping it hits 4.50 tomorrow and I might get out or sell enough to cover my initial investment.

Once I sell I'll have plenty of headroom to short around with.

Too bad I didn't get in on AIG when it was at 0.88, then again I don't even know why its going up with all this bad news.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Pimpwerx said:
Everything is coming back, except for Zale. That was my second buy I ever made, and a mistake I'll probably rue to the grave if they go bankrupt. A luxury company in a recession smh. Anyway, I'm actually gonna double-down on that mofo at some point in the coming months if they look to stabilize. People will be back to their excesses as soon as they can. The stock will be worthwhile long-term, I hope.

Anyway, wtf is with the market optimism? Is this another blip before the plunge? Aren't jobless numbers still going to be bad for months to come? I got out of a couple shakey positions a few hundred dollars ahead. The others should turn a better profit if this euphoria continues. But I'm really not sure what there is to be positive about. I feel like I really should hold onto my cash until early April and the fiscal year bloodbath. I don't expect many rosey reports or forecasts, so maybe we'll see 6000 again next month. Thoughts? PEACE.


I think you might be right if the banks have some terrible quarterly news in April.
 

Zyzyxxz

Member
Pimpwerx said:
Everything is coming back, except for Zale. That was my second buy I ever made, and a mistake I'll probably rue to the grave if they go bankrupt. A luxury company in a recession smh. Anyway, I'm actually gonna double-down on that mofo at some point in the coming months if they look to stabilize. People will be back to their excesses as soon as they can. The stock will be worthwhile long-term, I hope.

Anyway, wtf is with the market optimism? Is this another blip before the plunge? Aren't jobless numbers still going to be bad for months to come? I got out of a couple shakey positions a few hundred dollars ahead. The others should turn a better profit if this euphoria continues. But I'm really not sure what there is to be positive about. I feel like I really should hold onto my cash until early April and the fiscal year bloodbath. I don't expect many rosey reports or forecasts, so maybe we'll see 6000 again next month. Thoughts? PEACE.

I suppose its the news of the Fed helped alot:
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090318-715646.html?mod=rss_Global_Stocks

Also many of the financial stocks seem to be being bought up left and right.

There is news of the housing market posting positive numbers for once as well as that is related to the credit crunch as well.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives

Ether_Snake

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So ADBE finished up 11%, and ADSK up 6%.

Too bad I had to buy more of what I already had just to average down:|

Won't be able to buy anything for another more or two, unless I get my bonus by then.

Bought 60xHON at 27 today, already had 60 shares worth $40 a share.

Oil is almost back to $50.
 

alejob

Member
This is crazy! I'm putting part of my money I've saved for a car on the market for a month or so(or till I get a return I'm comfortable with). Hopefully I'll get a chunk of money of it fast, if not I can sit on it for a while and keep driving my 94 Camry.
 
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