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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Wellington

BAAAALLLINNN'
I'm doing some buying either today or tomorrow, and I am really tempted to nab some Citigroup... Convince me otherwise.

Definitely snatching up some GE, in two years they'll have made me a nice profit.
 

gkryhewy

Member
mckmas8808 said:
Home 30 year mortage rates are now 4.68% due to what the Fed did today.

The problem is that sales prices are inversely related to mortgage rates. With values continuing to fall while rates are at record lows, the inevitable return to more normal rates will keep values depressed, and possibly below the historic mean, for a long, long time.
 

Relix

he's Virgin Tight™
Wellington said:
I'm doing some buying either today or tomorrow, and I am really tempted to nab some Citigroup... Convince me otherwise.

Definitely snatching up some GE, in two years they'll have made me a nice profit.

Try getting some Citi, don't overdo it. The big chance was when it hit $1.00. I really nabbed a thousands of those shares :lol Sold 500 when it hit 2.20, holding the other stuff. Will probably sell 300 today and keep 200 and see what happens.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
gkrykewy said:
The problem is that sales prices are inversely related to mortgage rates. With values continuing to fall while rates are at record lows, the inevitable return to more normal rates will keep values depressed, and possibly below the historic mean, for a long, long time.


Can you repeat this again. Are you say that housing prices will keep going south, while the mortage rates go back above 5%?
 

gkryhewy

Member
mckmas8808 said:
Can you repeat this again. Are you say that housing prices will keep going south, while the mortage rates go back above 5%?

1. The consensus is that home prices will keep falling for awhile. All of the data indicates this.

2. Mortgage rates are about as low right now as they can conceivably be, which has an upward influence on home prices.

3. If you've got year-on-year price trends of (at best) -10% for home prices at a time when mortgage rates are this low, the inevitable return to more normal mortgage rates will exert downward pressure on home prices for an extended period of time. Whether this means that values will remain flat when they would otherwise increase, or whether they will continue to decline in real (inflation-adjusted) terms will remain to be seen.

The point is that there's no "free lunch" here - low mortgage rates now will just extend the duration of the bust, and people buying now at these rates won't even be able to refinance.
 

Wellington

BAAAALLLINNN'
Relix said:
Try getting some Citi, don't overdo it. The big chance was when it hit $1.00. I really nabbed a thousands of those shares :lol Sold 500 when it hit 2.20, holding the other stuff. Will probably sell 300 today and keep 200 and see what happens.
Wow look at Citi now, up near $4! I am such a damned chump.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
ADBE up another 4% this morning. Man.

ABX back over 40.

Ubisoft up 3%, now back over 13 euros. Probably due to NPD (haven't checked yet).

BHI up 6% on higher oil.
 

kathode

Member
Back in the saddle! Bought May COP puts this morning, thinking I'd hold for a few days. The stock price dove this afternoon and I went ahead and cashed in a 23% gain.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
CSUN went up 24% (down 6% in AH) after earnings. So solars were up nicely for the most part today.
 

Last Hope

Member
Wow, I got in too late on the Citi rally. I am putting in a stop order so I won't lose more than 20%. I think there is not a big chance of it going up tomorrow. I think it will remain calm but probably on a downward trend.
 
Captain Sparrow said:
So what do you guys think about buying AIG? Even though they have made so many bad decisions, does anyone honestly think they would be left to fail?

Javaman said:
It is going to take them years or decades to get out of the debt that they owe us.

Well I'll be... my hunch was right. I decided not to buy and it doubled, GRRRR.

I may be a newb to this, but my first ever stock purchase was citi at $1.00. Then I blew AIG.

What does everyone feel about Fannie Mae? I'm all in on that at $1.01. I see that being the next bit hit. Can we really lose on Fannie in the long run? Will the government let them fail? Will there be a housing boom? I'm in!
 

Javaman

Member
Captain Sparrow said:
Well I'll be... my hunch was right. I decided not to buy and it doubled, GRRRR.

I may be a newb to this, but my first ever stock purchase was citi at $1.00. Then I blew AIG.

What does everyone feel about Fannie Mae? I'm all in on that at $1.01. I see that being the next bit hit. Can we really lose on Fannie in the long run? Will the government let them fail? Will there be a housing boom? I'm in!

Missing an opportunity is not nearly as bad as blowing actual money on a bad investment. Don't beat yourself up too much.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Thank god I've been adding some puts this past week. About to sell my SBUX puts for 15%. My CRM. WFMI and BIG puts are doing well. About to get stopped out on my AMZN long position.
 

Ovid

Member
Captain Sparrow said:
What does everyone feel about Fannie Mae? I'm all in on that at $1.01. I see that being the next bit hit. Can we really lose on Fannie in the long run? Will the government let them fail? Will there be a housing boom? I'm in!
FNM and FRE the next big hit? Your kidding right? They had their run back in September and October of last year. The government will never let these companies out of their control again (I hope). As a result, I don't see both stocks doing much in the next 3-5 years. Oh...and I see they're both down 26% today.
 

Zyzyxxz

Member
dam lost some potential gain with Citi, I'm out at 2.50 but I got in at 1.50.

Oh well I'm predicting it will hit $2 on MOnday and I'll get back in at that time.

Might get in on AIG if it gets below a dollar again for a quick return.
 

kathode

Member
RSTEIN said:
Thank god I've been adding some puts this past week. About to sell my SBUX puts for 15%. My CRM. WFMI and BIG puts are doing well. About to get stopped out on my AMZN long position.

Any reason in particular you're buying longs in some stocks vs. calls lately? I'm assuming by "long" you mean a straight up stock purchase.
 

Ovid

Member
I don't know, I have a feeling there will be a run up on JAVA right before the market close. It is currently trading at $8.18. I am so tempted.
 

Pimpwerx

Member
LOL @ the red and almost wishful thinking of some on the street. The day-to-day fluctuations of the market are exaggerated so much. I'm actually fine with all my positions being down, b/c I can get in cheaper. Here's my whole philosophy the rest of the year:

swingers.jpg

DOUBLE DOWN!!!

I'm going all in. I'm just gonna try to keep it diversified enough that no one or two bankruptcies will kill me, but I intend to get rich once the bears go hibernate. PEACE.
 

Pimpwerx

Member
Javaman said:
Missing an opportunity is not nearly as bad as blowing actual money on a bad investment. Don't beat yourself up too much.
Indeed. I got out of Citi a little early at $3, but though I missed out on almost another grand, I at least made money. Now a bad investment is Zales. That I'm saddled with for months to come. That's not such a bad thing. I can wait a while before I average down on that one. It's not gonna be coming back anytime. I got in at $5 and it's at $1 now. :lol Missed opportunity doesn't cost a dime. Bad investments could end up costing me a mountain of dimes. PEACE.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
kathode said:
Any reason in particular you're buying longs in some stocks vs. calls lately? I'm assuming by "long" you mean a straight up stock purchase.

Well, options trades are my bread and butter. But I don't see any real good trades out there except for the puts I already have.

From time to time I do plain vanilla trades based on trend lines & support resistance levels. My AMZN trade was based on this trend line (the orange one, not the blue one). I got stopped out when the price broke through the orange line. Time to move on to the next trade!

sqqx6h.jpg



I noticed you bought COP puts. I was riding this blue trend line up. I was actually ready to put a short on when it hit overhead resistance at approx $40. Never got around to it :p

2s9bts6.jpg
 

Ovid

Member
WASHINGTON -- The federal government will announce as soon as Monday a three-pronged plan to rid the financial system of toxic assets, betting that investors will be attracted to the combination of discount prices and government assistance.

But the framework, designed to expand existing programs and create new ones, relies heavily on participation from private-sector investors. They've been the target of a virulent anti-Wall Street backlash from Washington in the wake of the American International Group Inc. bonus furor. As a result, many investors have expressed concern about doing business with the government in this climate -- potentially casting a cloud over the program's prospects.

The administration plans to contribute between $75 billion and $100 billion in new capital to the effort, although that amount could expand down the road.

The plan, which has been eagerly awaited by jittery investors, includes creating an entity, backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., to purchase and hold loans. In addition, the Treasury Department intends to expand a Federal Reserve facility to include older, so-called "legacy" assets. Currently, the program, known as the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, was set up to buy newly issued securities backing all manner of consumer and small-business loans. But some of the most toxic assets are securities created in 2005 and 2006, which the TALF will now be able to absorb.

Finally, the government is moving ahead with plans, sketched out by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner last month, to establish public-private investment funds to purchase mortgage-backed and other securities. These funds would be run by private investment managers but be financed with a combination of private money and capital from the government, which would share in any profit or loss.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123758981404500225.html

Looks like the financial sector will be in play on Monday.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/21/despair-over-financial-policy/

But it’s immediately obvious, if you think about it, that these funds will have skewed incentives. In effect, Treasury will be creating — deliberately! — the functional equivalent of Texas S&Ls in the 1980s: financial operations with very little capital but lots of government-guaranteed liabilities. For the private investors, this is an open invitation to play heads I win, tails the taxpayers lose. So sure, these investors will be ready to pay high prices for toxic waste. After all, the stuff might be worth something; and if it isn’t, that’s someone else’s problem.

Remember I said the Fed was trying to force inflation to raise asset prices, and once prices would rise (if it worked at all) everyone would try to get rid of their assets at the same time out of a lack of confidence and out of a need to make back their losses, but the only potential buyers would be the same people that are trying to get rid of the assets, so they would remain stuck with their assets and as a result deflation would kick in back in full force once more.

Well that won't be a problem if the Government buys all the assets.

You're going to be the last ones to hold the hot potato now, there's no one else behind you to pass it to.

Also I think this is quite timely: as soon as we start to see a rally on the stock markets, the Geithner and co. quickly react by speeding up their plan to buy the assets as soon as possible, probably because if the stock markets continue to rally there won't be as much of an incentive for the government to buy all the toxic assets. The banks will want to dump their assets, at above market price, as soon as possible. The value won't go back up anyway in the long run, they can be bought back later on. Either way, the banks get a lot of money, they get to live, the US government and tax payers do not. What do the banks care? They'll have their money and still have their businesses, they'll just do business elsewhere.

I'd say don't take any long position on anything once the Dow reaches 8500. The US tax payers will not be able to hold this much debt. They already couldn't a year ago, and there is absolutely NOTHING in the US' future that points to a stronger economy with more talented and better educated people. China has an upward potential in that department, but the US can only go down, and you know the talented and educated people will just go overseas.
 

Ovid

Member
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Obama administration's latest attempt to tackle the banking crisis and get loans flowing to families and businesses will create a new government entity, the Public-Private Investment Program, to help purchase as much as $1 trillion in toxic assets on banks' books.

The new effort, to be unveiled Monday, will be followed the next day with release of the administration's broad framework for overhauling the financial system to ensure that the current crisis -- the worst in seven decades -- is not repeated.

A key part of that regulatory framework will give the government new resolution authority to take over troubled institutions that would pose a threat to the entire financial system if they failed.

Administration officials believe this new power will save taxpayers money and avoid the type of controversy that erupted last week when insurance giant American International Group paid employees of its troubled financial products unit $165 million in bonuses even though the company had received more than $170 billion in support from the federal government.

Under the new powers being sought by the administration, the treasury secretary could only seize a firm with the agreement of the president and the Federal Reserve.

Once in the equivalent of a conservatorship, the treasury secretary would have the power to limit payments to creditors and to break contracts governing executive compensation, a power that was lacking in the AIG case.

The plan on toxic assets will use the resources of the $700 billion bank bailout fund, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

The initiative will seek to entice private investors, including big hedge funds, to participate by offering billions of dollars in low-interest loans to finance the purchases. The government will share the risks if the assets fall further in price.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/03/22/business/AP-Bank-Rescue.html

Wait...where is the FDIC getting this money? I remember hearing somewhere that the FDIC is going to charge a one-time fee to banks in order to raise money. So I guess this would be related to that, correct? I hope this doesn't create a bigger problem for the FDIC in the long run.

EDIT: Found it

Bair Says Insurance Fund Could Be Insolvent This Year
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said the fund it uses to protect customer deposits at U.S. banks could dry up amid a surge in bank failures, as she responded to an industry outcry against new fees approved by the agency.

“Without these assessments, the deposit insurance fund could become insolvent this year,” Bair wrote in a March 2 letter to the industry. U.S. community banks plan to flood the FDIC with about 5,000 letters in protest of the fees, according to a trade group.

“A large number” of bank failures may occur through 2010 because of “rapidly deteriorating economic conditions,” Bair said in the letter. “Without substantial amounts of additional assessment revenue in the near future, current projections indicate that the fund balance will approach zero or even become negative.”

The FDIC last week approved a one-time “emergency” fee and other assessment increases on the industry to rebuild a fund to repay customers for deposits of as much as $250,000 when a bank fails. The fees, opposed by the industry, may generate $27 billion this year after the fund fell to $18.9 billion in the fourth quarter from $34.6 billion in the previous period, the FDIC said.

The fund, which lost $33.5 billion in 2008, was drained by 25 bank failures last year. Sixteen banks have failed so far this year, further straining the fund.
I don't get it...will these fees imposed on banks be used to add additional dollars to the insurance fund or "support" (whatever that means) the purchase of bad assets?
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Wow BIDU has been going up significantly over the past few months, from 100 to 175. Not that I was interested in it but I'm somewhat surprised.

Nikkei back over 8000
 

kathode

Member
Things are looking good but I'm hoping for a further late-day push. I bought July WY calls but fell victim to the OTM temptation and the price hasn't really budged much. I don't want to sit on calls too long these days so I'm looking to get out for a token 4 or 5% gain.

Going to buy IBM puts if the rally heats up more.
 

Ovid

Member
WASHINGTON -- Demand for existing homes climbed in February above expectations, driven by foreclosure sales that are sending prices plunging.

Home resales rose 5.1% to a 4.72 million annual rate from 4.49 million in January, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. About 45% were foreclosure and short sales.

The large number of these distressed property sales is driving prices lower. The median price for an existing home fell 15.5% last month to $165,400. Falling prices depress demand, contributing to the high inventory that is a factor keeping prices down. Inventories of previously owned homes rose 5.2% at the end of February to 3.8 million available for sale, which represented a supply of 9.7 months at the current sales pace.

"As long as inventories stay very high and a high proportion of sales are distressed, prices will continue to decline," Insight Economics analyst Steven Wood said. "In addition, because of tighter mortgage-lending standards, a sustained recovery in the housing market is unlikely, at least while home prices are continuing to fall."

The February resales level of 4.72 million reported Monday by NAR was above Wall Street expectations of a 4.48 million sales rate for previously owned homes. The 5.1% increase was the largest since 5.6% in July 2003.

"This is a rebound from January," said NAR economist Lawrence Yun. "Home sales are still very soft." Mr. Yun added that realtors hope the Obama administration's enormous economic relief package stimulates the housing market in the next few months.

Freddie Mac data show the average 30-year mortgage rate was 5.13% in February, up from a record low 5.05% in January but below a rate of 5.92% in February 2008. Lower lending rates, though, can't change the facts: Credit is tight and layoffs have been rising. Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has shed 4.4 million jobs, including 651,000 jobs last month. Previously owned home sales, year over year, were down 4.6% from the pace in February 2008, Monday's report said.

February sales rose 15.6% from a month earlier in the Northeast, 1% in the Midwest, 6.1% in the South and 2.6% in the West.

The report on the 5.1% jump in existing sales across the nation comes about a week after the government said home construction rose for the first time in eight months during February, up 22.2%. Some analysts say the sector might not worsen, considering government efforts to aid the economy.

"The improvement in housing sales and starts seem to indicate the market may finally be finding a bottom," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. "I expect sales to start picking up over the next few months. The markets should like this and should react positively to the actions being taken to try to free up lending."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123781706899814483.html

Excellent
 

Meier

Member
I'm almost back to break even with C and BCS. :lol I'm just dabbling and plan to be in it for the longhaul... figure maybe every paycheck I'll put in another $100.
 

toxicgonzo

Taxes?! Isn't this the line for Metallica?
Bang, boom, straight to the moon!

I'm close to breaking even on those financial stocks I bought a few months ago
 

Pimpwerx

Member
BankAtlantic (BBX) will forever puzzle me. I don't know why, but it's actually down 2% on the day when every other financial is up. Bizarre. PEACE.
 

Javaman

Member
At close,

Dow 7,775.86 +497.48 (6.84%)
S&P 500 822.92 +54.38 (7.08%)
Nasdaq 1,555.77 +98.50 (6.76%)

S&P up 20.4% since March 9th. What a crazy couple of weeks.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Ether_Snake said:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/21/despair-over-financial-policy/



Remember I said the Fed was trying to force inflation to raise asset prices, and once prices would rise (if it worked at all) everyone would try to get rid of their assets at the same time out of a lack of confidence and out of a need to make back their losses, but the only potential buyers would be the same people that are trying to get rid of the assets, so they would remain stuck with their assets and as a result deflation would kick in back in full force once more.

Well that won't be a problem if the Government buys all the assets.

You're going to be the last ones to hold the hot potato now, there's no one else behind you to pass it to.

Also I think this is quite timely: as soon as we start to see a rally on the stock markets, the Geithner and co. quickly react by speeding up their plan to buy the assets as soon as possible, probably because if the stock markets continue to rally there won't be as much of an incentive for the government to buy all the toxic assets. The banks will want to dump their assets, at above market price, as soon as possible. The value won't go back up anyway in the long run, they can be bought back later on. Either way, the banks get a lot of money, they get to live, the US government and tax payers do not. What do the banks care? They'll have their money and still have their businesses, they'll just do business elsewhere.

I'd say don't take any long position on anything once the Dow reaches 8500. The US tax payers will not be able to hold this much debt. They already couldn't a year ago, and there is absolutely NOTHING in the US' future that points to a stronger economy with more talented and better educated people. China has an upward potential in that department, but the US can only go down, and you know the talented and educated people will just go overseas.

So what do you have to say about Shelia Bair saying that the FDIC will profit from Geithner's plan?
 
Got in BOH early this morning before the rest of the surge. Not expecting that short gain to hold through all of tomorrow, but long-term I'm quite happy with my buy-in price.
 

Tarazet

Member
I'm clearing out my Roth IRA and trying to open up a Schwab Individual 401(k). From what I've been reading you can do some incredible things with that kind of account if you're in business for yourself, which I am. Tough thing is going to be trying to get the IRS to swallow a same-year reclassification for the funds I contributed to my Roth IRA to a 401(k).. I don't know if I can do that.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
mckmas8808 said:
So what do you have to say about Shelia Bair saying that the FDIC will profit from Geithner's plan?

It won't because prices won't return to what they were at since the economy has not been reinforced and chances are banks will want to sell at a really high price, American purchasing power will be lower than it used to be because of lower access to credit (and if credit access is resumed to what it was we'll end up with another recession soon after) and higher prices while nothing will have been done to cut their expenses, and the US dollar's value will fall if the economy "heals" since it will no longer be needed as a safe haven and a transition to other currencies will be possible, which was suicidal in the middle of the recession.

The recovery will happen too quickly, at a time when the US economy will be no different than it used to be (except with more liabilities on its hands, more debt, and a lower currency).

EDIT: Oh look at that, China officially calls for new reserve currency: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7851925a-17a2-11de-8c9d-0000779fd2ac.html
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Today really hurt. I was up only 1.33% with the SP500 up 7%. I sold my UPS calls. The only long position I have left is PG calls. The rest is all puts.
 

Ovid

Member
Ether_Snake said:
Wow BIDU has been going up significantly over the past few months, from 100 to 175. Not that I was interested in it but I'm somewhat surprised.
Up 7% today. Look at the chart for the past month and a half. I had them off of my radar...damn.
15wzdow.png
 
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