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[Ether_Snake]

CGT up 3% on India helicopter contract.

 

[Gallbaro]

I have not been short since the beginning of this rally, just had no positions.

I genuinely believe this is a suckers rally, are the fundamentals really there? Housing prices still have a while to drop to real prices. Who knows how this free money will inflate them.

 

[Tarazet]

I agree that it's a sucker's rally. I'm all in cash right now, and I honestly don't know if I'm ever going to get back into stocks and options. The whole reason why I was taking big risks with money was because the contribution limit on an IRA is so low.. and now I'm getting an Individual 401k which is well into five digits, so if I only contribute $10K a year for the next 45 (music teachers can work for-fucking-ever), and earn 5% a year, I'll have $1.6M. And I'm sure I can do better than that.

 

[mckmas8808]

Looks like the 2 new housing reports and the durable goods data has the stock market up +150 points.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Gamestop down almost 3%. Onlive impact?

 

[Ovid]

Looks like the 2 new housing reports and the durable goods data has the stock market up +150 points.

Not anymore

 

[Meier]

I was so close to being back at even too! :lol

 

[kathode]

That was a crazy last few minutes :lol

 

[mckmas8808]

Not anymore

What were you saying?

 

[RSTEIN]

Crazy day. Sold my SBUX puts in the morning and my S shares I bought yesterday. Then I rebought S and sold it at the close. Picked up CAT and HAL shares too. Decided to keep them overnight.

 

[Ovid]

Wow...the markets closed up today.

When will the markets tank again? LOL.

I want to buy more stocks.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Argh, buyout rumors on WFR. Up 7% plus 2% in AH. Anyway, they were pretty low on my list anyway so it's not like I would have had a chance.

EDIT: F-22 crashed today:

U.S. fighter jet crashes, program questioned

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSN2544825720090325

A U.S. Air Force F-22 fighter jet crashed in the California desert Wednesday, the Air Force said, coming at a time the Obama administration is deciding whether to extend Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N)'s F-22 production line.

The decision on the production line is due in a month or so as part of the White House's detailed fiscal 2010 budget request to Congress.

Lockheed has said it plans to start phasing out its supplier base unless President Barack Obama opts to buy more than the 183 F-22s currently budgeted.

The aircraft, designed to be the world's top dogfighter, went down about 35 miles northeast of Edwards Air Force Base, where it had been based, the Air Force said in a statement. Edwards lies in the Mojave Desert, adjacent to Rogers Dry Lakebed, the largest dry lakebed in North America.

The Air Force said the condition of the aircraft's lone pilot was not immediately known.

To date, the Air Force has accepted 135 F-22s from Lockheed Martin, Lt. Gen. Mark Schackelford, the Air Force's top uniformed acquisition officer, told Congress Wednesday.

This is the second time an F-22 has crashed. The first was during a test and evaluation period in December 2004, also at Edwards, the Air Force said. In that case, the pilot ejected safely.

 

[RSTEIN]

I dunno about you guys but this rally is starting to feel very tired. Starting to get more aggressive with my puts.

 

[Relix]

I was just searching for this thread...

The fall is gonna be epic :lol

I am ready to short a few stocks, selling many which gave me gains. Inverstors think there is a recovery, there isn't yet. This might just get to be the ugly crash before the good stuff really does come rolling in.

I hope I am wrong though... but that's what it seems. I am just going to play a bit more with the market

 

[kathode]

Kind of kicking myself for not selling out my IBM puts when I could've made 15% yesterday, but I'm hopeful in the above sentiment that we're headed for a fall. Actually considering buying a bit more considering the stock itself seems to be hitting some resistance.

 

[Ether_Snake]

WOW

Solars up big time. Just the TAN ETF is up 20%. STP up 47%. On Chinese subsidy and Obama plan.

 

[mckmas8808]

WOW

Solars up big time. Just the TAN ETF is up 20%. STP up 47%. On Chinese subsidy and Obama plan.

What Subsidy?

 

[Ovid]

I dunno about you guys but this rally is starting to feel very tired. Starting to get more aggressive with my puts.

I hope this is a suckers rally. I really want to buy more shares of SNDK, CGT, and STEM, but I need them to go on "sale" again.

Good news from Best Buy.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Best Buy Co. had their biggest gain this year, after investors cheered a rosier-than-expected forecast and a smaller-than-expected 23% decline in fourth-quarter profit.
The nation's largest electronics retailer said sales exceeded its expectations and improved in January and February following a dismal holiday season, and that it's benefited from the bankruptcy of its smaller rival Circuit City, which went into liquidation. Best Buy, which reported its market share increased by about 1.2 percentage points to 22% as of Jan. 31, also said it has further share upside.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/best-buy-shares-pop-results/story.aspx?guid={3C3F5307-DEA3-4814-BE5B-6A4CE4735270}&dist=msr_7

 

[PapiShasho]

Is it a good idea to hold DXO right now?

 

[Ether_Snake]

What Subsidy?

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFN2650613820090326?rpc=44

Solar shares rally on new Chinese subsidy

Shares of solar companies rallied sharply on Thursday after the Chinese government said it would launch a generous new subsidy for the clean power systems.

Chinese-based companies were the biggest gainers, with Trina Solar Ltd (TSL.N) up 40 percent at $12.14 per share, Suntech Power Holdings (STP.N), up 40 percent at $10.96, LDK Solar Co (LDK.N), up 36 percent at $8.00, Yingli Green Energy (YGE.N) up 39 percent at $5.75, Solarfun Power Holdings (SOLF.O) up 26 percent at $4.48 and Canadian Solar (CSIQ.O), up 23 percent at $5.95.

Those shares had been hard hit so far this year as financing for new solar projects dried up, but the news that China would move to support the industry spurred hopes that the government could open up a potentially huge market for the industry.

"This is a pleasant bit of news out in what has been a quite bleak time for the solar industry. The numbers are quite substantive," said Edward Guinness, co-manager of the Guinness-Atkinson Alternative Energy Fund which owns shares in several solar companies.

According to a statement on a Chinese government website, solar projects larger than 50 kilowatts of output will be eligible for a subsidy of about $2.90 per watt.

"We believe meaningful upside potential exists if government support for domestic solar sector continues," a Barclays analyst wrote in a research note, adding the move could boost Chinese demand by about 200 megawatts starting in the second half of 2009, a nearly four-fold increase from Barclays' projection for this year.

China is home to several solar power companies, but most of the sales are to Germany and Spain, the two largest markets in the world. The United States is the third largest market.

The crisis in financial markets has shut off much of the funding for new projects since late last year, while weakness in the euro versus the dollar has eroded profit margins for companies that sell into the European market.

One analyst said while the news was clearly positive for the solar sector, many details had yet to emerge.

"Although the subsidy may cover about 60 percent-plus of the cost of installation, it is unclear how much the energy generated from the system will be valued," Piper Jaffray analyst Jesse Pichel said in a note to investors.

The news also boosted shares of U.S. companies First Solar Inc (FSLR.O) by 14 percent to $152.96 per share and SunPower Corp (SPWRA.O) by 15 percent to $27.66, while Germany's Q-Cells (QCEG.DE) rose 21 percent to 18 euros and Norway's Renewable Energy Corp (REC) (REC.OL) gained 18 percent to 58.40 crowns. (Reporting by Matt Daily and Wanfeng Zhou in New York and Nichola Groom in Los Angeles, editing by Matthew Lewis)

 

[RSTEIN]

Blood on boil on the flesh
mechanisms on stress
comin' like the steel on a wheel
while the numbers makes sense
dividing visible power with the speed of desire
subtract the presence of guilt from the riches of pleasure
now you're opened up to the physical
the cracks were there, in need of repair
but you left them to fend for themselves
watch chaos ensue, as if you never knew

 

[kathode]

Sold out of IBM puts, and now looking at it again, short-term indicators are saying way oversold. Could I double dip? :lol Do people think we'll bounce on Monday or continue falling? We have had such a run-up lately I'm wary about buying any calls at all.

 

[mckmas8808]

LIBOR-OIS is at 0.99 now. Ether_Snake didn't you say something like this wasn't going to happen this year?

 

[Ovid]

Wanted to buy CBAI (literally a penny stock) earlier this week but I thought I could get it cheaper. Stock up 21% today. That would have been $5000. The prices of the stocks I want to purchase keep rising. When r they gonna fall already....

 

[mckmas8808]

Wanted to buy CBAI (literally a penny stock) earlier this week but I thought I could get it cheaper. Stock up 21% today. That would have been $5000. When is this damn rally gonna end already. I'm missing out here. I'm thinking of just going into the market again. What do u guys think?

Go for it. Well lose money, not spending it?

 

[Ovid]

I've been sitting on the sidelines in cash for the last 2 weeks and I can't take it anymore.

 

[Ovid]

Oh, I guess this is the reason for the pop

Skin to Stem Cell Breakthrough Promises Health Care Revolution

March 27 (Bloomberg) -- Jason Burnett and his 10-year-old son Andrew, both born with a genetic defect, have been recruited into an experiment designed to transform bits of their skin into stem cells that may someday hold the key to a cure.

The Burnetts inherited a heart disease that leaves the father exhausted after a short walk. The two are among the first patients working with scientists who are using a new stem-cell technique that may someday revolutionize care for disorders as diverse as diabetes, Alzheimer’s and muscular dystrophy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=aBVxs33ym6Rg&refer=home

 

[Soroc]

This might be a crazy question but is anyone considering buying into AIG? Its almost down to a flat buck. Does anyone think this institution is gonna rebound and it would be a good gamble for long term?

 

[Ovid]

This might be a crazy question but is anyone considering buying into AIG? Its almost down to a flat buck. Does anyone think this institution is gonna rebound and it would be a good gamble for long term?

Almost??? The stock was trading at $0.30 eariler this month. Don't feed into the hype, this stock is worthless. The government owns 80% of the company if that helps.

 

[Meier]

My Barclays shares are doing well -- shame I put half of my money in it and the other half in Citi at the time! My brother suggested I buy some Sprint so I transferred over some more funds and got 250 shares... we'll see how that works out.

 

[Ether_Snake]

LIBOR-OIS is at 0.99 now. Ether_Snake didn't you say something like this wasn't going to happen this year?

Hmm no I don't think I did.

EDIT: Oh look at this:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/03/guest-post-big-banks-pull-off-ultimate.html

We're not quite as healthy as we thought we were. Oops. (WSJ)

J.P. Morgan Chase Chief Executive James Dimon said...that March was a little tougher than the first two months of the year....Bank of America...CEO Kenneth Lewis also said that March had been a tougher month for his bank. [Convenient that they decided to dump this information on Friday afternoon, and at the close of a very good week].

Readers may recall that a few weeks ago, those two CEOs---along with Citi's Vikram Pandit---said the first two months of the year had been very good:

Pandit, March 10th: “We are profitable through the first two months of 2009 and are having our best quarter-to-date performance since the third quarter of 2007.”

Dimon, March 11th: "Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, said Wednesday that the bank was profitable in January and February..."

Lewis, March 12th: "We have been profitable for the first two months of the year,” Lewis told reporters after a speech in Boston today.

This was possibly the most nakedly self-serving bullshit the big bank CEOs have offered to date. ("bullshit" being a technical term of course, see Harry Frankfurt)

By February, it was understood that the big banks are all insolvent, certainly Citi and BofA. To deal with them, consensus among the cognoscenti was finally tending to a proper recapitalization: wiping out shareholders and forcing losses onto creditors via debt-for-equity swaps. Call it nationalization, call it preprivatization, call it FDIC receivership, it was clear that losses had to be recognized and by those to whom they properly belong: investors across the capital structure.

But no one really wanted to do this, not in Congress and certainly not in the Obama administration, where Timmy Geithner has made clear that his priority isn't a cleansed banking sector, it's a privately-owned one. For obvious reasons the banks don't like this solution either. So they offered up their self-serving b.s. regarding January and February, buying just enough time for Congress/Bernanke to badger FASB into changing mark-to-market rules and for Geithner to roll out his private-public partnership plan.

Now whatever losses the banks can't hide with revised accounting treatments, they can simply fob off on taxpayers via the partnerships. They got what they always wanted: A bad bank. An entity that will actually absorb losses from the asset side of the balance sheet. Shareholders and creditors don't have to worry about further writedowns, not the ones that can't be hidden anyway. Taxpayers will pick up the check!

Even better, the Geithner plan is so ridiculously complex---and public disclosure is likely to be so minimal---that toxic asset transfers are likely to happen largely out of view. Maybe Treasury will have to increase its borrowing substantially in order to fund the losses, but by that point everyone will be celebrating that banks have started lending again. Hooray!

By the way, are there ANY protections to prevent banks from gaming this plan? What's to stop them from acting as the equity investors in the partnerships, ponying up a sliver of equity to effect a transfer of toxic assets from their own balance sheets to the public's? The FDIC's FAQ for the legacy loans program doesn't even address this particular Q. Is it not being frequently asked?

This is all of a piece. The longer CEO/policy-maker collusion can delay loss recognition, the more time they have to invent ridiculous leverage schemes (more money printing! more government borrowing to fund "stimulus"! more FDIC "guarantees"!) to inflate those losses away....and to continue looting the public's wealth.

But losses aren't going away. Trading smaller private liabilities for larger public liabilities in order to artificially inflate asset prices does nothing to repair the economy's aggregate balance sheet. At the end of the day, we're still just lending more and more against a dwindling pool of real equity. The unwind is coming. Adding more leverage to delay it will only increase the pain.

It's going exactly as I said it would. Lending resumption will completely fail after a short while. The economy hasn't changed.

 

[RumblingRosco]

Hmm no I don't think I did.

EDIT: Oh look at this:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/03/guest-post-big-banks-pull-off-ultimate.html



It's going exactly as I said it would. Lending resumption will completely fail after a short while. The economy hasn't changed.

Where in that article is the quote by Kenneth Lewis? I see no source.

 

[Ether_Snake]

WSJ

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123815206405655957.html#mod=testMod

 

[RumblingRosco]

WSJ

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123815206405655957.html#mod=testMod

I didn't see it in that article either. I may just be illiterate? :lol

 

[Ether_Snake]

Ah the Kenneth Lewis quote I don't know. Somewhere

 

[RumblingRosco]

Sounds like a great source, that blog. :lol

 

[Ether_Snake]

Well actually it is, it's Yves Smith's blog, she has been on CNN and is quote by Krugman and others really. No reason to doubt this.

 

[alejob]

I guess the question now is... Is the market going to hold up till the end of the year(when things are supposed to start turning around) or is it going to crash again before then? Looks like it will open up again on Monday.

 

[Ovid]

In the past week, stocks gained more than 6 percent, in part on buying by investors fearful of missing out on the rally as the quarter end approaches. Some traders bet the first quarter end, on Tuesday, could now bring on a selling wave as leaders of the G-20 nations descend on London for Thursday's summit on the global economic conditions.

Sharon Lorimer
The S&P 500 in the past week had its longest winning streak since August, ending the week at 815. The Dow finished at 7776, up nearly 7 percent.

"Where we used to see panic on the downside, now there's the fear of a sharp move up. We saw that for the last two weeks," said Patrick Kernan, who trades S&P 500 options at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange.

Kernan said investors are positioning themselves for more volatility. "The VIX (CBOE volatility index) is implying a 2.5 percent daily move in the underlying. That's like a 21 dollar daily move in the S&Ps. I think the (S&P) close above 800 is probably a good thing, but I still think we are still in store for quite a bit of choppiness," he said.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29922304

FYI

 

[Ether_Snake]

Hey you guys know what? I'm getting the impression that Intel will buy AMD before the next console generation.

That's my guess. Intel is acting as if they are certain that Larrabee will be part of next-gen consoles. They acquired Offset Software, they are making an engine/editor, they are making a game to showcase it as well as showcase the engine (the convince who? devs? publishers? yet it's the hardware makers that will decide what goes in the console, so why act like they have to convince devs or publishers, why make an engine if not to use Larrabee as a trojan horse to get int he engine business rather than the other way around, which wouldn't make sense?).

Basically I think Intel will acquire AMD, and they already know they will and are pretty close to 100% certain they'll have their stuff in next-gen hardware. Also they are basically not concerned with Project Offset's sales as state here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBPegjNG2qw, which seems to imply they are really certain of what they are doing.

I'm gonna buy some AMD share soon I think. It's been going up a lot recently though, but whatever, I'll see what I can do this week.

 

[DeadTrees]

Hey you guys know what? I'm getting the impression that Intel will buy AMD before the next console generation.

Not likely, for the same reason that Microsoft couldn't have bought Apple 10-15 years ago: antitrust regulations.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Not likely, for the same reason that Microsoft couldn't have bought Apple 10-15 years ago: antitrust regulations.

I don't think it would get in the way, there's still NVDA.

Otherwise, it just means Intel knows its deal is a done deal already, even without AMD.

 

[Zyzyxxz]

Hey you guys know what? I'm getting the impression that Intel will buy AMD before the next console generation.

That's my guess. Intel is acting as if they are certain that Larrabee will be part of next-gen consoles. They acquired Offset Software, they are making an engine/editor, they are making a game to showcase it as well as showcase the engine (the convince who? devs? publishers? yet it's the hardware makers that will decide what goes in the console, so why act like they have to convince devs or publishers, why make an engine if not to use Larrabee as a trojan horse to get int he engine business rather than the other way around, which wouldn't make sense?).

Basically I think Intel will acquire AMD, and they already know they will and are pretty close to 100% certain they'll have their stuff in next-gen hardware. Also they are basically not concerned with Project Offset's sales as state here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBPegjNG2qw, which seems to imply they are really certain of what they are doing.

I'm gonna buy some AMD share soon I think. It's been going up a lot recently though, but whatever, I'll see what I can do this week.

hmmm interesting. I was looking into it because AMD'd products have been doing well recently and ATI as well.

Next week seems to be really volatile so I might buy a little at opening prices and a bunch more if it drops alot.

Also if Intel is able to buy AMD that would basically make ATi their subsidiary as well and then Nvidia would really have a tough time competing.

Either way lets see what happens.

 

[RSTEIN]

As someone who has 95% shorts/puts, today is going to be a good day. My one long, AMZN, is up premarket. lol.

 

[Ovid]

I really don't think GM will file for Chapter 11. It would just cause more problems. GM down 30% this morning. I may pick up a few shares when it is in the $1 dollar range.

 

[ALeperMessiah]

I really don't think GM will file for Chapter 11. It would just cause more problems. GM down 30% this morning. I may pick up a few shares when it is in the $1 dollar range.

I think the gov't is kind of signaling that they're going to go through some sort of chapter 11, they're going to try and make it quick, but it will be bankruptcy all the less. If that is the case even at a dollar you'll get destroyed.

 

[mckmas8808]

I think the gov't is kind of signaling that they're going to go through some sort of chapter 11, they're going to try and make it quick, but it will be bankruptcy all the less. If that is the case even at a dollar you'll get destroyed.

Yep. I'll bail out if I owned any GM stock.

 

[Wellington]

I am glad I'm deskbound today. It's going to be like double-dutch at the school yard... just wait until you can jump right in. Been eyeing Ingersoll Rand (IR) for a while now, it's down almost a dollar right now. That and I can use a lot more GE as a long term deal.

I wish e-trade were a little faster with transferring money in.

 

[RSTEIN]

Sold my TJX puts and covered my BNI short.

Bought some MA with a tight stop. If it breaks through 163 I'm out.

 

[kathode]

Yikes! Wish I held onto my IBM puts As it stands all I own is two IBM July calls. That'll teach me to try and double-dip!