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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Well, with the employment numbers behind us, not a whole lot of news this week. With not much market moving news (except maybe inventories tomorrow and Mich sentiment on Friday) the recent run up may take a breather. Amazingly, the last three months have been the biggest run up since 1938. We're living history which is kind of cool. :D

I have a mix of puts and longs.

LONG:
AMZN
CMCSA
DISH
FSLR
HSIC
WFC
XLV
XRAY

PUTS:
AVP
BA
CL
GR
HRL
MCD
STJ

SHORT:
CVX
 

Ovid

Member
RSTEIN said:
Well, with the employment numbers behind us, not a whole lot of news this week. With not much market moving news (except maybe inventories tomorrow and Mich sentiment on Friday) the recent run up may take a breather.
Beige Book on Wednesday
Retail Sales on Thursday
Consumer Sentiment on Friday
 

kathode

Member
Took 10% on ADSK puts. Debating whether to take a tiny loss to get out of CL or wait for profits. Still reading >70 on RSI, but not sure how meaningful that is these days :) I've noticed lately that lots of people are seeming almost hysterically bullish. Some poor guy on StockTwits was tweeting over the weekend that PALM was going to breakout today and people who shorted it on Friday were gonna be sorry. I feel bad for that guy right now.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Really good day so far. Got stopped out on a lot of stuff this morning. Puts are on fire. Sold my MCD and STJ puts for 16% each. My BA and GR puts are up. Added TWX this morning as it reaffirmed its breakout of its multi-month resistance level of $25.

kathode said:
Debating whether to take a tiny loss to get out of CL or wait for profits.
I'm still holding in...

kathode said:
I've noticed lately that lots of people are seeming almost hysterically bullish. Some poor guy on StockTwits was tweeting over the weekend that PALM was going to breakout today and people who shorted it on Friday were gonna be sorry. I feel bad for that guy right now.

A lot of stocks have gone parabolic. Lots of super bullish talking heads out there. Never ever impose your will on the market. Let the market tell you what to do!
 

Ovid

Member
PALO ALTO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--StemCells, Inc. (NASDAQ: STEM) announced today positive results from the first Phase I clinical trial of its proprietary HuCNS-SC® product candidate (purified human neural stem cells), including demonstration of a favorable safety profile along with evidence of engraftment and long-term survival of the HuCNS-SC cells.

The Phase I trial was designed primarily to assess the safety of HuCNS-SC cells as a potential cell-based therapeutic. Six patients with advanced stages of infantile and late infantile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis (NCL), often referred to as Batten disease, were transplanted with HuCNS-SC cells and followed for 12 months. Overall, the Phase I data demonstrated that high doses of HuCNS-SC cells, delivered by a direct transplantation procedure into multiple sites within the brain, followed by twelve months of immunosuppression, were well tolerated by all six patients enrolled in the trial. The patients’ medical, neurological and neuropsychological conditions, following transplantation, appeared consistent with the normal course of the disease. The independent Data Monitoring Committee (DMC), a multi-disciplinary group of experts in neurosurgery, transplant medicine, genetics, and neurology responsible for overseeing the safety of the trial, has also concurred with the Company’s assessment of the safety profile of the test product and procedure. The trial was conducted at Oregon Health & Science University (OHSU) Doernbecher Children's Hospital and was completed in January 2009. StemCells will present the final study report to the FDA and plans to pursue future clinical development of HuCNS-SC as a potential treatment for infantile and late infantile NCL.
And the stock is down 5%. Looking at the premarket trading history, I see that it was up 10%. I bought up shares last week based on the fact the stock was oversold and the Batten results were this weekend. I didn't even get a chance to sell. Now I'm left holding. Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck!!!!!

BTW...GERN 4% today on no news...WTF.

Classic case of buy on the rumor, sell on the news.
 

Geeker

Member
The Krugman effect....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBoePpgj9RdU

U.S. Stocks Erase Losses After Krugman Predicts Recession’s End
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Lynn Thomasson

June 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, erasing an earlier tumble, after Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said the economy will probably emerge from recession by September.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., American Express Co. and Home Depot Inc. rose at least 1.7 percent to help the Dow Jones Industrial Average erase a 130-point drop. Financial and consumer- discretionary shares posted the steepest gains in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index after Krugman said “there’s some reason to think that we’re stabilizing.”

The S&P 500 rose 0.5 percent to 944.62 at 3:33 p.m. in New York after slumping as much as 1.4 percent earlier. The Dow added 43.91 points, or 0.5 percent, to 8,807.04.

Commodity shares led the S&P 500 to a second straight drop earlier on growing concern the Federal Reserve will have to start raising interest rates as inflation accelerates, threatening the economy’s recovery.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: June 8, 2009 15:34 EDT
 

Ovid

Member
MATTHEWS, N.C. (AP) -- Discount retailer Family Dollar Stores Inc. said Thursday its same-store sales rose 6.2 percent during its fiscal third-quarter, and said based on the results it would meet or beat the high end of its earnings outlook. The Matthews, N.C., company said net sales for the period ended May 30 rose 8.2 percent to $1.84 billion from $1.7 billion last year.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected third-quarter revenue of $1.86 billion.

Chief Executive Howard R. Levine said in a statement that the company's strong same-store sales momentum continued from the previous quarter. Same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, is a key measure of retailer performance because it measures growth at existing stores rather than at newly opened ones.

Levine said sales of consumable merchandise rose 13 percent in the quarter, marking continued gains. He also noted that sales in several discretionary categories improved from the second quarter.

Consumers -- worried about the recession -- have been cutting their spending and focusing on basics.

Family Dollar said it now says it expects earnings per share to be at or above the upper end of its earlier estimate of 54 and 58 cents. Analysts predict it will earn 57 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters.

Family Dollar is scheduled to report quarterly results on July 8. The company operated 6,654 stores at the end of May, with 26 new stores opening during the quarter.

Shares of Family Dollar fell $1.57, or 4.9 percent, to $30.83 in morning trading.

I'm going to purchase some more shares of FDO this week. I see June call and put options are targeting a strike price of around $30 so its current price will most likely remain stable for the next two weeks. Family Dollar reports earnings on July 8th and I see the majority of July calls are between $35.00 and $37.50. This company has solid fundamentals so I feel pretty confident it will beat or surpass that price. I think FDO will run up a bit this week (retail sales on Thursday), decline till June 19 options expiration, then run up again headed into earnings. So if you guys want to make some easy money on a quality company that is currently down, I suggest you do the same.
 

Tarazet

Member
My CIT bond matured, it turned an investment of $980.60 on April 7 into $1003.52 today. That's an annualized 14% return after commissions and everything. Turned around and bought another CIT bond - after all, why mess with success? The only alternative yielding the same amount with a short-term commitment seems to be GMAC, which is ass over teakettles in debt. I can't understand why CIT is giving such great yields, they did bleed $1.7B in cash last quarter but they still have $7B asset equity. GM's equity was negative $91B as of last quarter.

The new bond I bought matures in November and will return an annualized 10%.
 

Ovid

Member
99 Cents Only Stores (NDN) swung to a fiscal fourth-quarter profit on improved sales and margins as the company reduced its operating costs.

"We continue to experience solid traffic trends and remain well-positioned to capitalize on the current economic situation," said Chief Executive Eric Schiffer, as the company's results easily topped analysts' expectations.

The retail chain, which operates stores that sell general merchandise for 99 cents or less, has reported solid single-digit same-store sales growth recently, one of the few retailers that was able to post gains last year amid slumping consumer spending.

For the quarter ended March 28, the company reported earnings of $7 million, or 10 cents a share, compared with a year-earlier loss of $4.4 million, or 6 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected per-share earnings of 4 cents.

Gross margins rose to 39.3% from 37.2%.

In April, the company said net sales grew 13% to $329.2 million as same-store sales increased 6.2%.

Operating expenses were 33.9% of sales, down from 37.5% a year earlier.

During the fiscal fourth quarter, the company opened two stores in California and Arizona and closed four in Texas. It closed 10 additional Texas stores in April and now has 34 stores in Texas and 271 total stores. In fiscal 2010, the company expects to open about 15 stores, with a majority to be opened in California in the second half of the fiscal year.

In September, 99 Cents Only Stores said it would exit the Texas market, but in February, the company put that decision on hold while it re-evaluated its Texas operations. Operations in California, Arizona and Nevada account for about 90% of sales.

Schiffer said that after closing 14 underperforming stores in Texas, the remaining stores have picked up in sales, seeing a run-rate exceeding $3 million in annual sales per store, compared with about $2.6 million for the 48 stores operating last summer.

Schiffer said the company would continue to monitor its Texas operations as it mulls its strategy for the state. The company plans to provide an update to its Texas market decision in August.

Shares were up 2.5% to $11 in after-hours trading.
www.wsj.com
 

gkryhewy

Member
Holy crap - THQ just continues to skyrocket. Up 8% today, and another 9% after hours. UFC must be pulling monster numbers, or they're about to be acquired.
 

Ovid

Member
gkrykewy said:
Holy crap - THQ just continues to skyrocket. Up 8% today, and another 9% after hours. UFC must be pulling monster numbers, or they're about to be acquired.
Wow...I see huge purchases in AH trading.

nasdaq.com

Disney is looking to purchases a video game company. I was thinking Majesco but THQ could be in their sights as well. They also have a licensing relationship with them.
 

gkryhewy

Member
tarius1210 said:
Wow...I see huge purchases in AH trading.

nasdaq.com

Disney is looking to purchases a video game company. I was thinking Majesco but THQ could be in their sights as well. They also have a licensing relationship with them.

That's what I was thinking too, but isn't THQ more a publisher than a developer? UFC is a Yukes-developed game.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
The upgrade they got in early May could not justify the rally it did on that day, nor the subsequent ones.

Oil above 70.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Bought some MSFT puts this morning (and people say I'm a MSFT fanboy!). Holding steady, not doing much.
 

kathode

Member
Dumped my CL puts for 5% loss on the small dip earlier this morning. Tired of that thing putting me on an emotional roller coaster :) I've got no options for the moment. Seeing some overbought stuff but wary about buying puts at the moment. Everyone still seems overly bullish.

Interesting how futures today were up pretty high - S&P was up 10+ and DOW was up 81, yet we're seeing red. I wake up to the radio about two minutes before the guy reads out the S&P futures, and it pretty much determines my mood for the rest of the morning :lol
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
STP (and solars in general) continue its rally. 17% in two days. Still in the red on this though (like with everything except ATVI).

HON and BHI and CGT are still too low for me to just break even:| BHI at least is rising thanks to oil prices.
 

Ovid

Member
sonarrat said:
Right here. You want some?
Oh my god Sonarrat...not you.

Ether_Snake said:
HON and BHI and CGT are still too low for me to just break even:| BHI at least is rising thanks to oil prices.
What is with CGT. They have a good quarter, cut some jobs, and stock goes down. I have shares in the $5 range and I also bought more at around $6.50 back in April. Will this thing ever get to $7 and stay there? Plus, they announced this morning yet another military contract today and the stock goes down.

CAE awarded military contracts valued at more than C$80 million

MONTREAL, QUEBEC--(Marketwire - June 10, 2009) - (NYSE:CGT)(TSX:CAE) - CAE today announced a series of military contracts valued at more than C$80 million. Key customers include the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence, United States Navy and other global militaries.

"In the first two months of our new fiscal year, we are continuing to see momentum in our Military market segments as defence customers look to expand their use of synthetic training," said Martin Gagne, CAE's Group President, Military Simulation Products, Training and Services. "Simulation offers a number of advantages, most notably cost advantages as well as the ability to practice and rehearse different mission scenarios."

United Kingdom Ministry of Defence

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defence (MoD) has contracted CAE Aircrew Training Services plc to perform major upgrades on two of the CH-47 Chinook full-mission simulators located at CAE's Medium Support Helicopter Aircrew Training Facility (MSHATF) at Royal Air Force Station Benson. The investment being made by the UK MoD in these upgrades will provide a significant enhancement to operational training and mission rehearsal capabilities for Royal Air Force (RAF) CH-47 Chinook aircrews.

United States Navy

The United States Navy has contracted CAE USA to perform major upgrades on two MH-60S operational flight trainers located at Naval Air Station (NAS) North Island. CAE will provide a range of simulator upgrades, including the addition of simulation software to support training for organic airborne mine countermeasures (OAMCM). The MH-60S helicopter is used by the U.S. Navy for airborne mine countermeasures, combat search and rescue, anti-surface warfare, and carrier plane guard.
 

dionysus

Yaldog
My double short of emerging markets isn't looking to hot, ah well, you win some you lose some. I am still not ready to cut the ties on that one.

Just bought ERTS today.

My inflation hedges, commodities, are doing really well though. Enough to outweigh everything else.

RSTEIN said:
SHORT:
CVX

You bastard, I take it personally when people short me!
 

Ovid

Member
After enjoying a three-month ride off the March lows, Wall Street is now bracing for payback time—a mild retreat that many market experts actually think would be healthy. Since the market ricocheted off its March 9 lows, Wall Street has been debating when the market would see a pullback and what it would mean.

The pullback has been seen as an inevitability, but hasn't happened yet due to a number of factors, in particular the breaking of technical levels that has prevented the averages from taking any major dips.

Recent events, though, including gyrations in the market for US Treasurys and concerns over inflation, has lent more credence to the notion that a pullback is looming ever closer.

"We're in this cross current. There's still a ton of money on the sidelines. A lot of professionals don't believe this rally is true," said John Buckingham, chief investment officer at Al Frank Asset Management in Laguna Beach, Calif. "A retest of the lows from here would be an awful downturn. Even if you had a 10 or 15 percent downturn that would hurt."

"From a short-term perspective, it's anybody's guess," he added. "If I had to be a betting man on the near term I would say we're due for a modest pullback."

The 10 percent or more figure seems to have the most traction on the Street; Standard & Poor's chief investment strategist Sam Stovall earlier told CNBC he thinks a 15 percent pullback is in order "before I can breathe a sigh of relief and believe we're headed higher again."
www.cnbc.com

I don't get why these so called "pros" want the markets to head downward? How can a pullback be healthy? We've been though some tough lows back in November and most recently in March. Haven't we already been through enough already?
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
dionysus said:
You bastard, I take it personally when people short me!

Heh. I'm not short anymore. I got stopped out yesterday when it broke through $70.

I bought ERTS today, too. Got it when it hit support at $21.50.
 
Justin Bailey said:
Mutual Funds are managed actively. Index funds are passive in that they typically buy into things like the entire S&P 500 and leave it from there. Because they don't have someone constantly trading equities (like mutual funds) the fees on an index fund are lower.

Mutual funds can see higher returns than index funds if the manager is good, but it's still a crapshoot. The way I look it if you're going that route why not just do your own stockpicking? At least you'd have more fun that way.
so what's so special about vanguard?
 

Relix

he's Virgin Tight™
tarius1210 said:
What happened to all the idiots that said sell in May b/c the market will fall again?

I always said summer. And who knows... maybe low currency and high oil will finally do it. Thanks for calling me an idiot too! =O!

(Fuck Oil prices. Really... fuck you speculators)
 

Justin Bailey

------ ------
viakado said:
so what's so special about vanguard?
Vanguard and Fidelity are the top picks for index funds usually. Both of them are cheap, reliable, and well-known, established companies. If you do an index fund only you really should base it on solely which company has the cheaper fees because there's literally nothing else to base it on.
 

kathode

Member
tarius1210 said:
I don't get why these so called "pros" want the markets to head downward? How can a pullback be healthy? We've been though some tough lows back in November and most recently in March. Haven't we already been through enough already?

An ebb and flow is a natural feature of a healthy market. Every day can't be Christmas! :) Go up for too long, and you risk bigger groups of people simultaneously taking out their profits in bigger and bigger chunks, which can cause bigger drops, which spur fear and cause a crash.

CL seems to be a good long play. That bastard just won't go below 70 no matter what happens :lol
 
Justin Bailey said:
Vanguard and Fidelity are the top picks for index funds usually. Both of them are cheap, reliable, and well-known, established companies. If you do an index fund only you really should base it on solely which company has the cheaper fees because there's literally nothing else to base it on.

Quoting to agree with this. Only true difference in index funds is fees, so pay the lowest. Vanguard and Fidelity make low fees a point in almost all of their funds, and are two of the most respected.
 
Justin Bailey said:
Vanguard and Fidelity are the top picks for index funds usually. Both of them are cheap, reliable, and well-known, established companies. If you do an index fund only you really should base it on solely which company has the cheaper fees because there's literally nothing else to base it on.

ALeperMessiah said:
Quoting to agree with this. Only true difference in index funds is fees, so pay the lowest. Vanguard and Fidelity make low fees a point in almost all of their funds, and are two of the most respected.
viakado said:
i have about 18k in capital i'd like to invest. i wanna double that fucker in the next decade. so i take it now would not be the smart time to invest?
just quoting myself from the other thread.
seems like Fidelity has a higher customer satisfaction.
i'd like to diversify my monies besides index funds, help a noob out gaf.
...please :)
 

Tarazet

Member
viakado said:
just quoting myself from the other thread.
seems like Fidelity has a higher customer satisfaction.
i'd like to diversify my monies besides index funds, help a noob out gaf.
...please :)

So you need to return about 7% annually for ten years. Will you want to use the money at that point? Will it be in a tax-advantaged account?
 

dionysus

Yaldog
I have seen no evidence that actively managed mutual funds are not categorically worse than index funds.

Given a large enough set of random numbers, you will always get one string of random numbers that is positive for extended periods of time.

And, even if there are great mutual funds, they will probably be closed down to new investors anyway because of their performance.

What do you want your activity level to be? If you want to buy and forget, I would recommend a diversified portfolio of cheap fee index funds that have exposure to overseas, bond markets, maybe even commodities, and your regular domestic funds as well.
 
sonarrat said:
So you need to return about 7% annually for ten years. Will you want to use the money at that point? Will it be in a tax-advantaged account?
i'd like to build enough for down payment on a house.
second question, i don't know what hell you're talking about. :/
 

dionysus

Yaldog
viakado said:
i'd like to build enough for down payment on a house.
second question, i don't know what hell you're talking about. :/

What is your time frame for a house? If it is less than 5 years your down payment money should be someplace earning a very small interest rate but with almost no chance of losing money. I know crappy returns suck, but if you chase big returns like 10% returns, you have to remember those 10% average returns are 30+ year averages, and there were many swings of greater than +/-30% a year returns.
 
dionysus said:
What is your time frame for a house? If it is less than 5 years your down payment money should be someplace earning a very small interest rate but with almost no chance of losing money. I know crappy returns suck, but if you chase big returns like 10% returns, you have to remember those 10% average returns are 30+ year averages, and there were many swings of greater than +/-30% a year returns.
timeframe is around 10 years.
30years for a 10% return, did i read that right?:lol
 
sonarrat said:
10% average annual return. That would turn $1,000 into $17,450 over 30 years.
ok, that makes more sense.
from this point what next? what kind of mutual funds do you guys recommend?
energy? precious metals? financial?

dionysus said:
I have seen no evidence that actively managed mutual funds are not categorically worse than index funds.

Given a large enough set of random numbers, you will always get one string of random numbers that is positive for extended periods of time.

And, even if there are great mutual funds, they will probably be closed down to new investors anyway because of their performance.

What do you want your activity level to be? If you want to buy and forget, I would recommend a diversified portfolio of cheap fee index funds that have exposure to overseas, bond markets, maybe even commodities, and your regular domestic funds as well.
i heard bonds are junk, but also invest long term in index that have overseas exposure, as you said.
what's the best place to research this?
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
tarius1210 said:
Oh my god Sonarrat...not you.


What is with CGT. They have a good quarter, cut some jobs, and stock goes down. I have shares in the $5 range and I also bought more at around $6.50 back in April. Will this thing ever get to $7 and stay there? Plus, they announced this morning yet another military contract today and the stock goes down.

CAE awarded military contracts valued at more than C$80 million

I know, it's always been like that since I first bought shares, maybe I'm bad luck:p

But it's alright IMO for the long term. My shares are worth around $9 US or so, so I'm much worst off than you:p
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
tarius1210 said:
RSTEIN, update your blog already. It's been a month.

Meh, I gave up on it. It took too much time. I would set the trade up, write it up, do the chart, and then if the stock broke support I'd be stopped out like 5 minutes after putting up the blog entry.
 

Ovid

Member
Doesn't the price of a stock increase on the ex-dividend date and fall on the date the dividend payment is dispursed?
 

Ovid

Member
CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: 99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: NDN), Big Lots (NYSE: BIG), Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO), Exxon (NYSE: XOM) and J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP).

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=4579

Here are highlights from Wednesday’s Analyst Blog:

99 Cents Only’s Strong Results

Today, 99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: NDN) reported strong results for its fiscal fourth quarter. NDN's revenue rose 13%, to $329.2 million from $290.5 million, while same-store sales increased 6.2%. The company earned $7 million, or $0.10/share, up from a loss of $4.4 million, or $0.06/share in the year-ago quarter. The Zacks consensus called for sales of $317 million and EPS of $0.05.

The earnings upside was due to product margin improvements and cost-cutting efforts. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2008, NDN's gross margin rose 210 bps to 39.9%; selling, general and administrative expenses (excluding depreciation) as a percentage of sales fell 360 bps; and its operating margin increased 630 bps to 3.0%. These results include the company's operations in Texas, which the company is in the process of exiting. The company's operations outside of Texas were even better.

Looking ahead, the company believes it can increase its gross margin to 40.5% and its operating margin to at least 5% by fiscal year 2012. Based on annual sales of $1.45 billion, the company would have earnings power of $0.70 per share. That is an over 200% increase in earnings per share from fiscal year 2009.

We think that EPS forecast could turn out to be conservative if the company decides to increase its store openings more than expected in the next few years. The retailer currently operates 271 stores in California, Arizona, Nevada and Texas, where it is still has 34 stores.

While we wouldn't chase the stock here (it is up about 16% after its fourth quarter earnings release), we would become more positive on the stock after a decent pullback.

In our view, 99 Cents Only Stores should be able to deliver higher earnings growth than most of the stocks in retail industry. That growth will come from a growing trend of consumers looking to become more frugal and trading down to lower-cost alternatives of the things they need to buy. Other stores that will benefit from this trend toward frugality include Big Lots (NYSE: BIG) and Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO).
www.businesswire.com

Down 2% today. Currently trading at $29.70.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Today is a good day. Up 124% for the year :D

My MSFT puts are still killing me. I'll buy more if we get a surge towards the close.
 

kathode

Member
RSTEIN said:
Today is a good day. Up 124% for the year :D

My MSFT puts are still killing me. I'll buy more if we get a surge towards the close.

I bought some yesterday on the bump :) Bought a small position in ERTS calls too. Probably just going to look to get out of there at about 10%. Not going to get burned by ERTS in 2008 AND 2009! :lol
 

Meier

Member
RSTEIN said:
Today is a good day. Up 124% for the year :D

My MSFT puts are still killing me. I'll buy more if we get a surge towards the close.
That's amazing. Congratulations. I finally got back to even or close to it on a few trades and simply unloaded so I have no stock right now. Calls and puts are a bit too scary for my liking.
 
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