-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
THQI is up significantly over the last two days. I think the UFC game could break out into a significant hit -- I wonder whether it might make them more attractive as an acquisition?
I also would probably buy and hold ERTS if I didn't think the market was going back to 7500 or so -- their Wii investments are quite smart.
I also would probably buy and hold ERTS if I didn't think the market was going back to 7500 or so -- their Wii investments are quite smart.
tehrik-e-insaaf
Member
TheKingsCrown said:
ATVI's own yearly earnings forecast is revenue-wise similar to ERTS despite all these products
My biggest issue is with the quoted assets on their balance sheet. Goodwill needs to be revalued since it is based on a 2007 merger and I see it falling 30% = direct affect on shareholder's equity
TheKingsCrown
Banned
tehrik-e-insaaf said:
Yeah but clearly investors don't know when Starcraft 2, for example, is launching. If they did, the stock would react more violently than it has, wouldn't it? Everyone has their suspicions but money now is worth more than money later, except investors don't know when "now" is.
Also, I think the majority of investors underestimate the power of Blizzard's brand and the effects that a major release of theirs has on the PC sector.
We'll see.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
tarius1210 said:
Yeah two or three weeks ago or so, at $8.84. I didn't read any buyout rumor today though, where did you see that? Anyway I bought them because I already made money on them before when EA made an offer, and like I said before TTWO will definitly be bought out eventually, there's not enough chances in their favor for them to grow significantly on their own, so management will see that and they'll accept an offer eventually. They fucked up big time by saying not to EA at $25.75 a share.
gkrykewy said:
THQI has been going up abnormally since some analyst rated them at $6 something. But I'm not interested in THQI, I don't see the value, I see them as Midway 2. They might make for a good acquisition for a non-gaming company though since they're a publisher.
I'm not buying ERTS shares, I think ERTS is screwed for good, unless ATVI royally fucks up.
EDIT: About ATVI, there are few things that worry me, mainly outside of Blizzard; Prototype doesn't fit in their strategy (although I hope for them that it will sell well), having a skateboard peripheral for Tony Hawk is a big risk especially in a fucking recession, and that Blur racing game also doesn't fit in their strategy and it just makes no sense to begin with. So I'm starting to be a bit pessimistic. Other than for Blizzard.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30845077/site/14081545Ether_Snake said:
CVH is pissing me off. I could probably sell it off by dropping 5 cents from my limit order, but that ends up being $300 from my proceeds.
TSN - Look at this fucking chart. This thing is mocking me.
"Ok ok I'll go down. Whoops! Just kidding. All right all right, you got me, I'm dropping. HA! Got you again!"
TSN - Look at this fucking chart. This thing is mocking me.
"Ok ok I'll go down. Whoops! Just kidding. All right all right, you got me, I'm dropping. HA! Got you again!"
kathode said:CVH is pissing me off. I could probably sell it off by dropping 5 cents from my limit order, but that ends up being $300 from my proceeds.
TSN - Look at this fucking chart. This thing is mocking me.
"Ok ok I'll go down. Whoops! Just kidding. All right all right, you got me, I'm dropping. HA! Got you again!"
Watch out, strong stocks like that in bad days like today can explode if the market reverses around 3:00.
A stock drops 16% and you don't see that as a buying opportunity? They lower guidance for Q2, big deal. Does Gamestop ever do exceptionally well in the middle part of the year? I don't think so.RSTEIN said:
GERN keeps rising (it a high of $7.49 this morning). There is no new news on this company yet the stock price keeps going up. I wonder if I should sell my position or ride it out. I was planning to hold it for a couple of years, but if the stock plummets I could possibly buy in at a cheaper price.
tarius1210 said:
I don't know if it's a buying opportunity or whatever. That's not really my approach. I'm just saying I hate Gamestop with a passion.
Let's say there's a company that drills for oil. At one of their drill sights there is an explosion. 200 babies are killed from the explosion. I'd rather buy that company than Gamestop.
Gamestop: worse than killing 200 babies.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
ADSK up 11% after analyst mentions cost cutting measures.
About THQI, personally, I don't see potential. It's a gamble, could be good, who knows. Probably will be acquired eventually.
About THQI, personally, I don't see potential. It's a gamble, could be good, who knows. Probably will be acquired eventually.
lawblob said:
It's really tough to say. I would at least wait until it comes down to the mid or low 5's. It just depends on how bullish you are on them. They could come out in a week and say UFC did awesome and sold a ton, and the stock could shoot up. Or they could not say anything about anything and just slowly glide down. You never know. All I can tell you is that when I look at them, they're up 10% this week alone, and up over 60% in the last month, so this isn't a stock I'd make a bet right away on continuing that kind of performance.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
I'm starting to have a bad feeling about Activision. Prototype, Blur, and Tony Hawk, are all bad ideas in my book. $120 for a skateboard game is ridiculous, and it takes up huge shelf space. It's like Guitar Hero where you can keep buying more music for it and extend its worth, it's not a game you would want to play with other people, etc. Big mistake. I'm thinking of selling my shares to come back after a big drop, but I'm hesitating because I think DJ Hero will do well and also COD6. Also, I don't see better ahead from EA anyway, so it's not like their position is threatened.
We'll see.
We'll see.
tarius1210 said:
my bad I heard the news wrong, but it seems that GM is now trying to avoid bankruptcy for real instead of letting it happen and I thought I heard the government would be willing to give them more money if they were serious.
Ether_Snake said:
Same here, also the Activision execs sold off a ton of stock
http://www.*******.com/2009/05/25/report-activision-execs-sell-off-a-bunch-of-stock/
replace *** with *******
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
STP up 11% and TTWO up 8.72%
I have been absent a while from this thread. So here is what I am currently in.
TTWO Long
EEV Long - Proshares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, means I am actually double short BRIC basically
Honda Motor Short
Bancolombia Long
DBB Long - Powershares DB Base Metals, mostly copper and zinc ETF.
Watchlist: ERTS, FIG (I missed a 600% return in a month. I came so close to buying it at $1 as a speculative play.)
Longterm I will be moving to protect myself against hyperinflation in the US and the cratering of the US economy. By longterm I mean 2 year horizon. I have already made some of these moves by buying into commodities. Recently I have gotten out of ATVI with a nice profit and I have removed all long exposure to industries currently in the US government's target sights.
TTWO Long
EEV Long - Proshares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, means I am actually double short BRIC basically
Honda Motor Short
Bancolombia Long
DBB Long - Powershares DB Base Metals, mostly copper and zinc ETF.
Watchlist: ERTS, FIG (I missed a 600% return in a month. I came so close to buying it at $1 as a speculative play.)
Longterm I will be moving to protect myself against hyperinflation in the US and the cratering of the US economy. By longterm I mean 2 year horizon. I have already made some of these moves by buying into commodities. Recently I have gotten out of ATVI with a nice profit and I have removed all long exposure to industries currently in the US government's target sights.
Been quiet but profitable last couple of weeks. Trades since last Monday:
05/18/2009 GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. LONG -1.89%
05/19/2009 PEP PepsiCo, Inc. LONG 3.37%
05/19/2009 PG The Procter & Gamble Company LONG 7.64%
05/19/2009 F Ford Motor Company LONG 8.67%
05/20/2009 NSC Norfolk Southern Corp. LONG 7.88%
05/20/2009 COST Costco Wholesale Corporation SHORT -2.64%
05/20/2009 PEP PepsiCo, Inc. SHORT -1.98%
05/21/2009 DELL Dell Inc. LONG -2.26%
05/21/2009 GDTK General Dynamics Corporation PUT 21.58%
05/21/2009 KOTW The Coca-Cola Company PUT 8.40%
05/22/2009 CVHVD Coventry Health Care, Inc. PUT 8.35%
05/26/2009 NSC Norfolk Southern Corp. LONG 6.00%
05/26/2009 MA Mastercard Incorporated LONG -2.87%
05/26/2009 SOKO The Southern Company PUT 14.87%
05/18/2009 GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. LONG -1.89%
05/19/2009 PEP PepsiCo, Inc. LONG 3.37%
05/19/2009 PG The Procter & Gamble Company LONG 7.64%
05/19/2009 F Ford Motor Company LONG 8.67%
05/20/2009 NSC Norfolk Southern Corp. LONG 7.88%
05/20/2009 COST Costco Wholesale Corporation SHORT -2.64%
05/20/2009 PEP PepsiCo, Inc. SHORT -1.98%
05/21/2009 DELL Dell Inc. LONG -2.26%
05/21/2009 GDTK General Dynamics Corporation PUT 21.58%
05/21/2009 KOTW The Coca-Cola Company PUT 8.40%
05/22/2009 CVHVD Coventry Health Care, Inc. PUT 8.35%
05/26/2009 NSC Norfolk Southern Corp. LONG 6.00%
05/26/2009 MA Mastercard Incorporated LONG -2.87%
05/26/2009 SOKO The Southern Company PUT 14.87%
I said back in March that a GM bankruptcy was unlikely but it's looking like it may happen. So I sold my major positions during the rally yesterday. I'll buy them back cheaper after the filing.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=15610284&postcount=6143
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=15610284&postcount=6143
So yeah, I went really hard into puts yesterday and made about $15k worth of orders! Decided to sell out this afternoon of everything and take what I could. I was thinking the GM bankruptcy would depress things more when it finally comes but I think it might be just about priced in at this point.
KOTW Coca Cola Company 17% (~2x the position of everything else)
AVPVZ Avon Products 10%
XSQF Citrix Systems 6.4%
TAPVH Molson Coors Brewing Co -2.7%
CSCUH Computer Sciences Corp -4.3%
Not too shabby! TAP and CSC kept their heads above water most of the day and I didn't want to get stuck with them on the off chance of a rally. I set a too-conservative limit on XSQF and it hit while I was driving into work. Could've made 18-20% on that easily, but when I left this morning futures were up, the headline on marketwatch was "Worries in the rear-view now!" and I was thinking I'd have to commit ritual suicide within the week :lol
KOTW Coca Cola Company 17% (~2x the position of everything else)
AVPVZ Avon Products 10%
XSQF Citrix Systems 6.4%
TAPVH Molson Coors Brewing Co -2.7%
CSCUH Computer Sciences Corp -4.3%
Not too shabby! TAP and CSC kept their heads above water most of the day and I didn't want to get stuck with them on the off chance of a rally. I set a too-conservative limit on XSQF and it hit while I was driving into work. Could've made 18-20% on that easily, but when I left this morning futures were up, the headline on marketwatch was "Worries in the rear-view now!" and I was thinking I'd have to commit ritual suicide within the week :lol
I think we've hit bottom, but greed is back and oooh how quick. Look at oil prices for fuck's sake. US dollar is worth shit right now, 1.40 compared to Euro. If Oil Prices keep growing we will be stuck in this situation for a while thanks to greedy motherfuckers. I really can't wait for the day we get the hell out of oil dependency. I give it like 5 years when newer technology finally hits the roads. Reall, it's stupid. A sign of recovery and speculation begins, playing right into the hands of the OPEC, which is practically price fixing, and no one dares to touch them.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Relix said:
What does "shorting" mean?
Relix said:
First off, Europe is more foreign oil/gas dependant than the US. So I am not sure why you are implying that oil has something to do with the value of the greenback vs. the Euro. Second, oil dependancy has very little to do with the value of the dollar. If you want an explanation of why the dollar moves, I'll give you the 3 biggest influences: growth rate in the monetary base, relative interest rates, and the country's relative economic growth.
The scariest thing happening the US dollar right now is the monetizing of the national debt, ie the Fed printing money to buy US treasuries. This breaks 50+ years of Fed tradition and is a big no-no in countries with stable currencies. It is financial incest and should only happen in Banana Republics like Argentina and the like.
Edit. I should add a fourth influence on currencies. Stability and low political risk. It is actually the most important, but when comparing stable regions like the US and Europe it has no impact.
mckmas8808 said:
In a way you bet that the shares will go down. You sell a stock that you don't have, and then actually purchase it at a later time. Makes profit. You need a margin account to handle any loses since shorting is dangerous.
EDIT: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_(finance) Better explained.
Relix said:
The peak oil crowd said that as the global production peak was reached, we would see wild swings in prices, with high oil prices leading to recessions, bringing down prices, and then slapping down growth as prices rise again and again in response to ever more stunted recoveries.
I don't necessarily buy it, but it's looking prescient at the moment.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Relix said:
So the other person sold the GM stock that he doesn't have for $1.78, but really buys it for $0.79 later on?
If that's the case then what do you do with the stock that you bought for real at $0.79?
TheKingsCrown
Banned
Ether_Snake said:
You know, Activision only brings in 20% more of total revenue for ATVI than Blizzard (~60% vs. ~40%).
mckmas8808 said:
A short is like a loan to you of cash that must be paid back in shares. You promise to give them (the dealer) X shares for Y money. Except you don't receive Y money until you give them back the X shares. So if you are able to purchase the X shares for less than Y money in the future, you have made money.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
dionysus said:
Oh so they only care about the "number" of shares and not the amount of the cost per share?
mckmas8808 said:
You only have to reimburse them in quantity of shares. If they lose 100% so be it. They will watch the change in share price from the short price though, so if you start losing to much money (the share price increasing) they will call you on the short and you will have to reimburse them the shares immediately.
Edit. I don't think they can limit their losses though other than the natural limit of 100% (a stock can't be worth less than 0). Correct me if I am wrong and the dealer can call you to reimburse them to limit their losses.