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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

gkryhewy

Member
tarius1210 said:
Why is Mad Catz Interactive (MCZ) up 70% today?

This, but WOW:

Mad Catz and Microsoft Corporation Sign Multi-Year License Agreement for Xbox 360™ Wireless Specialty Controllers

SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mad Catz Interactive, Inc. (AMEX/TSX: MCZ), a leading third-party interactive entertainment accessory provider, announced today that it has signed a multi-year licensing agreement with Microsoft Corporation (“Microsoft”) (MSFT: NASDAQ). Pursuant to the agreement, Mad Catz has global rights to manufacture, market and sell Xbox 360-branded wireless specialty videogame controllers.

“This agreement expands our relationship with Microsoft and we look forward to shipping a range of new wireless specialty controllers, the first of which will be our wireless Fender bass guitar for Rock Band, later this month,” said Darren Richardson, President and Chief Executive Officer of Mad Catz. “The Xbox 360 platform is a key focus of our growing licensed accessories business and we look forward to bringing Xbox 360 fans a variety of innovative and distinctive wireless specialty controllers to enhance their gaming experiences.”

About Mad Catz Interactive, Inc.

Mad Catz is a global leader in providing innovative peripherals for the interactive entertainment industry. Mad Catz designs and markets accessories for video game systems and publishes video game software, including the industry-leading GameShark video game enhancements, under its Mad Catz, GameShark and Joytech brands. Mad Catz also designs and markets mice, keyboards, headsets, PC gaming controllers and other PC peripherals through its Saitek brand, and recently began manufacturing and marketing proprietary portable earphones under its AirDrives brand. Mad Catz distributes its products through most of the leading retailers offering interactive entertainment products and has offices across Canada, Europe and Asia. For additional information please go to www.madcatz.com, as well as www.gameshark.com, www.airdrives.com, www.saitek.com and www.joytech.net.

Safe Harbor for Forward Looking Statements: This press release contains forward-looking statements about the Company's business prospects that involve substantial risks and uncertainties. The Company assumes no obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained in this press release as a result of new information or future events or developments. You can identify these statements by the fact that they use words such as "anticipate," "estimate," "expect," "project," "intend," "should," "plan," "goal," "believe," and other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with any discussion of future operating or financial performance. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are the following: the ability to maintain or renew the Company's licenses; competitive developments affecting the Company's current products; first party price reductions; the ability to successfully market both new and existing products domestically and internationally; difficulties or delays in manufacturing; or a downturn in the market or industry. A further list and description of these risks, uncertainties and other matters can be found in the Company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian Securities Administrators.
 

kathode

Member
dionysus said:
if you start losing to much money (the share price increasing) they will call you on the short and you will have to reimburse them the shares immediately.

Edit. I don't think they can limit their losses though other than the natural limit of 100% (a stock can't be worth less than 0). Correct me if I am wrong and the dealer can call you to reimburse them to limit their losses.

A short doesn't have a natural loss limit - While a stock can only decline to zero, there's no ceiling for it to hit on the way up. So, unchecked, a short can have theoretically unlimited losses beyond what you initially paid.

The brokerage who made the loan to you can force you to cover at some point as well. I think the provisions on when it happens are in your margin agreement. This can contribute to the short squeeze phenomenon which sometimes drives stocks rapidly up as short sellers cover their positions.
 

dionysus

Yaldog
kathode said:
A short doesn't have a natural loss limit - While a stock can only decline to zero, there's no ceiling for it to hit on the way up. So, unchecked, a short can have theoretically unlimited losses beyond what you initially paid.

The brokerage who made the loan to you can force you to cover at some point as well. I think the provisions on when it happens are in your margin agreement. This can contribute to the short squeeze phenomenon which sometimes drives stocks rapidly up as short sellers cover their positions.

I was speaking from the broker dealer's perspective, they can't lose more than 100%.

A massive short squeeze that happened recently was in VW. When people realized that Porsche had stealthy acquired 75% of VW through specialized derivatives, the shorts didn't have enough volume in the stock to go unnoticed when they were forced to cover. It drove up the stock price several hundred percent.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
kathode said:
I can't find much interesting out there. Some stuff looking overbought but I'm just nervous. I'm not sure the effect a GM bankruptcy will have, and supposedly the rumor is that they're filing on Monday.

Yeah, it has been pretty quiet out there. Market is in no man's land right now. I only have 3 puts. Made lots of great trades early in the week. Tried shorting several stocks yesterday but got stopped out. Picked up some longs tho they and more than offset the small losses. Long YHOO, GS, MO, MMM, XLV, DBB, EMC.
 

Relix

he's Virgin Tight™
Shorting is damn dangerous, and I don't recommend it for novice investors. It's easy to los money on it. I bet a lot on GM since I was fairly sure they were going kaput.

Also... fuuuuck at Madcatz. Wow
 

Ovid

Member
Relix said:
Shorting is damn dangerous, and I don't recommend it for novice investors. It's easy to los money on it.
UNLIMITED LIABILITY

When you "buy long", your liability is capped. You can, at most, lose the value of your invesment (IE, if the stock costs $60 you can lose no more than $60). However, if you were to sell short and the stock price rose, there's no limit to the amount of money you could lose (as there is no theoretical upper limit on the stock price).

http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Short_Selling
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Well, options & shorting doesn't have to be dangerous. If you have a consistent, disciplined plan that involves cutting losses quickly there's nothing to worry about. Buying stocks plain vanilla can be dangerous if you're just sitting their blindly hoping and praying for them to go up. Look at the past year. A lot of stocks were recommended & purchased based on their safety and security. In hindsight that was an illusion. Blue chip stocks lost 50-60% of their value very quickly.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
DJ Hero will be such a hit. I'm sure of it. They did a very good move on this one.

Too bad they aren't canceling Tony Hawk outright, and delaying Blur to make it worth something when it comes out (or just ship it and never mention it again, but then buying Bizarre studio would have become a big mistake). They should delay it so they can find a way to make the game meaningful, right now the game doesn't mean much.

Tony Hawk is really the big mistake though. I just don't get it. They Kotick should get down on his knees and thank god there's no Skate game coming out at the same time. If I was EA? I would re-release Skate 2 right there.
 

Ovid

Member
Ether_Snake said:
DJ Hero will be such a hit. I'm sure of it. They did a very good move on this one.

Too bad they aren't canceling Tony Hawk outright, and delaying Blur to make it worth something when it comes out (or just ship it and never mention it again, but then buying Bizarre studio would have become a big mistake). They should delay it so they can find a way to make the game meaningful, right now the game doesn't mean much.

Tony Hawk is really the big mistake though. I just don't get it. They Kotick should get down on his knees and thank god there's no Skate game coming out at the same time. If I was EA? I would re-release Skate 2 right there.
So ATVI a buy now or during the summer?
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
I don't know, I bought back in summer 2007 and added more a few months ago:p

Tony Hawk is the puzzle, cause I can't see this game doing well at all with the giant ass plastic skateboard crap. So how much of that will eat away at their profits I wonder.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Good interview I came across with Paul Tudor Jones. For those that don't know Jones, here's a blurb from his Wikipedia page:

Having made $750 million in 2006, he is worth an estimated $3.3 billion, and was ranked by Forbes in March 2007 as the 369th richest person in the world. One of Jones' earliest and major successes was predicting Black Monday in 1987, tripling his money during the event due to large short positions. Jones' firm currently manages $17.7 billion (as of June 1, 2007). Their investment capabilities are broad and diverse, including global macro trading, fundamental equity investing in the U.S. and Europe, emerging markets, venture capital, commodities, event driven strategies and technical trading systems.


What’s so special about macro hedge fund managers?
I love trading macro. If trading is like chess, then macro is like three-dimensional chess. It is just hard to find a great macro trader. When trading macro, you never have a complete information set or information edge the way analysts can have when trading individual securities. It’s a hell of a lot easier to get an information edge on one stock than it is on the S&P 500. When it comes to trading macro, you cannot rely solely on fundamentals; you have to be a tape reader, which is something of a lost art form. The inability to read a tape and spot trends is also why so many in the relative-value space who rely solely on fundamentals have been annihilated in the past decade. Markets have consistently experienced “100-year events” every five years. While I spend a significant amount of my time on analytics and collecting fundamental information, at the end of the day, I am a slave to the tape and proud of it.

Is it possible to teach someone to be a tape reader — what some might call a trend follower or technical analyst?
Certain people have a greater proclivity for it because they don’t have the need to feel intellectually superior to the crowd. It’s a personality thing. But a lot of it is environmental. Many of the successful macro guys today, they’re all kind of in my age range. They came from that period of crazy volatility of the late ’70s and early ’80s, when the amount of fundamental information available on assets was so limited and the volatility so extreme that one had to be a technician. It’s very hard to find a pure fundamentalist who’s also a very successful macro trader because it is so hard to have a hit rate north of 50 percent. The exceptions are in trading the very front end of interest rate curves or in specializing in just a few commodities or assets.

What’s your take on the next generation of managers?
I see the younger generation hampered by the need to understand and rationalize why something should go up or down. Usually, by the time that becomes self-evident, the move is already over. When I got into the business, there was so little information on fundamentals, and what little information one could get was largely imperfect. We learned just to go with the chart. Why work when Mr. Market can do it for you? These days, there are many more deep intellectuals in the business, and that, coupled with the explosion of information on the Internet, creates the illusion that there is an explanation for everything and that the primary task is simply to find that explanation. As a result, technical analysis is at the bottom of the study list for many of the younger generation, particularly since the skill often requires them to close their eyes and trust the price action. The pain of gain is just too overwhelming for all of us to bear!

You’re not necessarily a fan of hiring people straight out of business school.
Today there are young men and women graduating from college who have a tremendous work ethic, but they get lost trying to understand the logic behind a whole variety of market moves. While I’m a staunch advocate of higher education, there is no training — classroom or otherwise — that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There’s typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. The only way to learn how to trade during that last, exquisite third of a move is to do it, or, more precisely, live it — a sort of baptism by fire. One has to experience both the elation and fear as markets move five and six standard deviations from conventional definitions of value.

How will macro investing fare over the next five years?
The macro space will be great. I think we’re going into one of those slow or zero-growth periods in the U.S., which will give us a lot of volatility.

Will hedge funds do as well as they have done in the past?
Average returns will drop. The amount of money that was made by hedge funds in the past two decades was so outsize relative to anything in civilization in the past couple of centuries that it naturally attracted the best intellectual capital in the world. As a result, the inefficiencies that existed in the ’70s and ’80s and even the ’90s are not as readily seen. But in this business there will also always be that upper tier — that top 10 or 20 percent of managers who will outperform everyone else.

What experience had the biggest impact on your career?
Trading commodity markets back in the late ’70s — when they were still extraordinarily volatile — allowed me to experience repeated bull and bear markets across a variety of different instruments. Remember, in agricultural markets the cycle can be just 12 months. I lost my stakes a couple of times, which taught me risk control and risk management. Losing those stakes in my early 20s gave me a healthy dose of fear and respect for Mr. Market and hardwired me for some great money management tools. Oh, incidentally and by necessity, I became a pretty good fundraiser, which has helped me in the not-for-profit world.

Who’s had the biggest influence on your career?
My first boss and mentor, Eli Tullis, of New Orleans. He was the largest cotton speculator in the world when I went to work for him, and he was a magnificent trader. In my early 20s, I got to watch his financial ups and downs and how he dealt with them. His fortitude and temperament in the face of great adversity were great examples of how to remain cool under fire. I’ll never forget the day the New Orleans Junior League board came to visit him during lunch. He was getting absolutely massacred in the cotton market that day, but he charmed those little old ladies like he was a movie star. It put everything in perspective for me.

What was your single best trade or investment?
Probably buying March put options on the Japanese stock market in early February of 1990. The volatility was an absurd 5 percent, owing to the newness of the options market, with which many Japanese had little experience. Much like the U.S. stock market just before the 1929 crash, the Japanese stock market in early 1990 was following the same price pattern with remarkably similar fundamentals and valuations that provided enormous profit opportunities in a truncated period of time. I actually felt sorry for the people who were on the other side of that trade when I was buying those puts.

Your biggest missed chance?
I missed the subprime opportunity of 2007, and it rankles me every time I hear the term. We have studiously avoided mortgages at Tudor specifically because it is a big-carry game that does not adequately compensate for the inherent tail risk. That unfamiliarity, though, came with a huge opportunity cost.

Is the price of oil high for fundamental reasons, or are hedge fund managers and Wall Street driving it up?
It’s a very bullish supply-and-demand situation, and the peak oil theory is probably correct. But the run-up in prices is now bringing in an enormous amount of speculative, nontraditional capital such as pension funds and university endowments — principally through index products. Commodities have been the worst-performing asset class behind stocks, bonds and real estate for the past 200 years, but Wall Street doesn’t highlight that long history when selling commodity index instruments today. Instead, it shows a chart of the bull market of the past 12 years to rationalize why some pensioner should be long cattle futures in the derivatives markets as part of a basket. I am sure they were using similar logic about tulips three centuries ago. Oil is a huge mania, and it’s going to end badly. We’ve seen it play out hundreds of times over the centuries, and this is no different. It’s just the nature of a rip-roaring bull market. Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic.

Should hedge funds be more closely regulated?
I selfishly do not want to be regulated, but I understand the necessity of it.
— Interview by Stephen Taub
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Fucking USD going down at a time when I'm more likely to sell.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Buying MSFT & IBM at the open if they break out of their resistance (21.00 and 106.50, respectively).
 

kathode

Member
Scottrade got it resolved pretty quickly. Still, very frustrating.

UNH doing the slow, steady creep up to my limit price. I set it pretty high, but I'm starting to feel that nagging doubt/greed that I should wait for a last minute surge :) Going to leave it at around 25% for now and see what happens.
 

kathode

Member
RSTEIN said:
Still have lots of longs but picked up following puts:

AVP
CL
CSC
JNPR
MCD
NYX

Woo, we're back!
I followed you in to CL and CSC. Also got some puts on ADSK which was reading ridiculously overbought.
Expecting some roll over tomorrow or Thursday.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
kathode said:
Woo, we're back!

Yay!

I sold my NYX and JNPR puts today.

Portfolio now is:

PUTS:
AVP
CL
CSC
GD
MCD
HRL
KO
STJVH

LONG:
CMCSA
DBB
GS
IBM
MA
MO
MSFT
XLV

No shorts at the moment.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Financials are in for a world of pain today. I'll probably get stopped out of my MA. My GS position should be OK unless it cracks $140.

Edit: actually financials are holding in quite nicely. Still got stopped out of my MA. Bought some BAX this morning.

Edit2: bought JPM.
 

kathode

Member
Great, the server that runs all of Scottrade's charting is down, taking out the quote pages with it. So I can only get basic quick quotes on the main page, and can't actually see the bid/ask on my options. Fantastic. Time to start thinking about moving elsewhere. That thinkorswim site sure does look nice. Just annoying given how much time it takes to move money anywhere.

Sold out of CSC for 16%.

It's back. Why, why does CL hate me?
 

Lazy

Member
I'm getting about $1500 in a little while and I'd like to invest most of it. What do you guys suggest?

What's the best way to go about learning to invest wisely (book recommendations, websites, etc)?
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Lazy said:
I'm getting about $1500 in a little while and I'd like to invest most of it. What do you guys suggest?

What's the best way to go about learning to invest wisely (book recommendations, websites, etc)?

Hi there!

There a few things you need to ask yourself. What time frame? Is this money you're setting aside for your retirement? What kind of volatility can you tolerate? How much time are you going to devote to monitoring the account?

With $1,500, your best bet is either a mutual fund or an ETF (like SPY).
 

kathode

Member
Late day rallies = :(
Came within 5 cents of selling ADSK puts. Should've dumped. CL makes me angry, but it's gotta go down one of these days!
 

Zyzyxxz

Member
RSTEIN said:
Financials are in for a world of pain today. I'll probably get stopped out of my MA. My GS position should be OK unless it cracks $140.

Edit: actually financials are holding in quite nicely. Still got stopped out of my MA. Bought some BAX this morning.

Edit2: bought JPM.

yup, good thing I sold out my Citi shares earlier.

I'm going for a somewhat long position on BYDDF, expecting $6 or up once summer gas prices remind everybody that electric is the future.

Although the summer trading slump may cancel that out.
 

Meier

Member
Ugly day for me. BSX retreated all the gains it made me yesterday just about.. no surprise there. I've been sitting on ABK for some time... pretty darn stagnant unfortunately.
 
Suikoguy said:
My best investment ever, 300% up now :D :D :D

I am not quite where you are on gains, but I'm still way, way up, and very happy with it. It's second in %-gain only to MCD for me.

Also, bought in a bit more F and LPX recently. I have a good feeling here.
 

kathode

Member
D'ultimate said:
so RSTEIN and others. what methods do u use to select your options?

The options themselves or which stocks to buy options on? For the most part I just find stocks I like, look for the first ITM option 3-4 months out, then break out my steel balls and hit the buy button. It's crazy scary, especially days like today where it seems the market refuses to go your way.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Good for you guys with COOL, I remember when it had been trading at around 1$ for a long long time, nice to see it double:)
 

Relix

he's Virgin Tight™
Someone must be behind the oil price rise. There's no sense or point to it. US Dollar is stronger, economy wasn't affected and is moving forward... yet the oil price seems to be the next step to stop US Growth. What the hell?

Goddammit someone make an efficient fuel cell already, I want these OPEC assholes to die in a fire, get stolen of their money and live a poverty life forever. Well, mix that up. Leave the dying in a fire to the end.
 

Tarazet

Member
Treasuries trading has been violent lately. Interest rates are going up fast, the 30-year bond is a full point higher than it was a week ago.
 

Geeker

Member
sonarrat said:
Treasuries trading has been violent lately. Interest rates are going up fast, the 30-year bond is a full point higher than it was a week ago.

Yeah, this will probably be an efficient way to stop the ongoing "recovery".
 

Tarazet

Member
Geeker said:
Yeah, this will probably be an efficient way to stop the ongoing "recovery".

Especially seeing how these bonds are closely tied to mortgage rates as well. There are a lot of refis in the pipe that are never going to be funded if they're not already locked.
 

Ovid

Member
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Traders are beginning for the first time in months to price in expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year as the recession abates.

Federal-funds futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 59 percent probability the central bank will lift its target rate for overnight bank borrowing by at least 0.5 percent by November after a report today showed the U.S. economy shed the fewest jobs in May in eight months. Rate-increase odds were 27 percent yesterday.

The Fed cut the target rate to the record low range of zero to 0.25 percent in December as the economy lapsed into the worst recession in decades. President Barack Obama and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke have committed $12.8 trillion to thaw frozen credit markets and ramped up government spending to revive growth. The Fed last raised borrowing costs in June 2006, when policy makers pushed the rate to 5.25 percent.

“The market is pricing in some kind of action by the Fed by the end of the year,” said Lou Brien, a strategist at Chicago- based DRW Trading Group, which uses its own capital to make markets on interest-rate derivatives. “The payroll number -- which is really what we always trade off of -- was quite a bit stronger than expected. You get knee-jerk reactions to data like this.”
http://www.bloomberg.com

To those who worry about hyperinflation. This will be somewhat of a political challenge for Bernanke. In order to fend of inflation the Fed must increase interest rates. However, when will the Fed do it? Before or during the recovery phase? Tough question.
 

Ovid

Member
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Walt Disney Co. is increasing spending on video-game development, part of a strategy to profit from the industry’s growth by publishing more titles based on its movies rather than hiring outsiders.

Disney, owner of the Pixar animation studio, has increased its game-production budget by more than 10 percent this year, game-unit chief Graham Hopper said yesterday in Los Angeles. The Burbank, California-based company is hiring developers and is “always actively looking” for acquisitions, he said.

“We’re investing in titles that have high potential to deliver returns given the current economic environment,” Hopper said in an interview at the Electronic Entertainment Expo show.

Disney and other Hollywood studios are investing in video- game software, tapping into an industry that now generates more sales than the U.S. box office. The company will make the game for 2010’s “Toy Story 3” after using outside publishers such as THQ Inc. for earlier games based on Pixar films.

Disney fell 19 cents to $24.95 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have gained 10 percent this year.

Profit margins are bigger when companies produce, publish and release game internally, said Hopper, senior vice president and general manager of Disney’s interactive unit. About 90 percent of Disney’s games are now published internally.

THQ, based in Agoura Hills, California, made titles based on earlier Pixar movies, including “Toy Story,” “Finding Nemo” and “Cars,” as well as this year’s “Up.”

Games Growth

U.S. video-game software sales increased 26 percent to $11 billion in 2008, according to Port Washington, New York-based researcher NPD Group Inc. That compares with U.S. and Canadian box office revenue of $9.63 billion, little changed from 2007, according to Sherman Oaks, California-based Box Office Mojo LLC.

Disney’s digital operation, which includes its Web site and video games, will lose 13 cents a share in fiscal 2009, Douglas Mitchelson, an analyst with Deutsche Bank Securities, said at an investor conference in March.

The company is putting more resources toward games for Nintendo Co.’s top-selling Wii console and DS handheld player. Games for those systems sell better than on Microsoft Corp.’s Xbox 360 and Sony Corp.’s PlayStation 3, Chief Executive Robert Iger said at the Deutsche Bank conference.

“Our investment was a little out of whack in terms of where we were putting our development,” Iger said then.

The recession also is presenting acquisition opportunities, Hopper said. The company is looking for takeover targets that demonstrate “cultural alignment” with Disney.

“We’re always actively looking,” Hopper said. He didn’t mention any specific target.
www.bloomberg.com

I wonder who is on their radar? I know EA was mentioned a few months ago. I don't see TTWO being on the list with GTA in their portfolio. Can you guys name any other struggling developers/publishers?

EDIT: I think I know who they maybe eyeing, Majesco. A small publisher whose lineup of titles consists mostly of Nintendo (Wii and Gameboy) family friendly games. I can see this happening. Yay or Nay?

COOL up 6% AH. I know it's this company. It has to be. I'm gonna jump in next week.
 

Gallbaro

Banned
EA is too big of a mkt cap for DIS, besides the premium for their brands is probably to high when DIS has the best brands in the world, but clearly it would be an established but probably domestic company.
 
tarius1210 said:
www.bloomberg.com

I wonder who is on their radar? I know EA was mentioned a few months ago. I don't see TTWO being on the list with GTA in their portfolio. Can you guys name any other struggling developers/publishers?

EDIT: I think I know who they maybe eyeing, Majesco. A small publisher whose lineup of titles consists mostly of Nintendo (Wii and Gameboy) family friendly games. I can see this happening. Yay or Nay?

COOL up 6% AH. I know it's this company. It has to be. I'm gonna jump in next week.

Careful; I've seen COOL jump up greater amounts than that on no-news quite often over the past ~12 months that I started purchasing shares, usually it opens back at the same price it closed at and nothing significant ever comes of it... although, you're right, they're a small company that could fit in very nicely with their line-up, and all the way back when I first started buying Majesco I did so on the basis that I really felt it was an acquisition target for companies such as EA or ATVI (though it turns out it may be DIS in the end!)
 
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