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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
Ether_Snake
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TTWO dropped 9% yesterday after lowered outlook, THQI up 8.75% today
AMD up over 8% too.
AMD up over 8% too.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Love to see the market like this!
Ninja_Hawk
Member
This might seem odd, but I have to thank alot of you here, particularly RSTEIN and Ether_Snake (maybe some others i'm forgetting). But i'm only 19 and I taught myself how to invest a little while ago and I have to say that lurking this thread really did help me out as far as watching particular stocks and opinions on where and where not to buy. I made quite a bit a profit too, which i'm quite proud of. So here's my thanks!
Ninja_Hawk
Member
Ok, that too!
Ether_Snake
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Yeah, cause I haven't made a dime since EA offered Take2 $25 a share
Only ATVI has been in the green all along. Everything else I would have to add to soon, but I want to invest in some other stuff for now.
Only ATVI has been in the green all along. Everything else I would have to add to soon, but I want to invest in some other stuff for now.
Ninja_Hawk
Member
Yeah, probably the biggest gain i've made was off of Oracle buying Sun. I put some money into THQI way too late, I had no idea the impact UFC was going to make, and figured they'd be well off after the fact without doing any research on what was coming, lesson learned.
Ninja_Hawk said:
That's great! You are on the right path. To get excited and interested in investing/saving at your age puts you head and shoulders above the vast majority of people out there. The most important thing is that you're arriving at your own conclusions. The only way to learn is to put your ideas into action and see whether you're right or wrong. The market will tell you instantly. You won't get that instant feedback from any other endeavor. Perform a full blown post-mortem on your failed trades/investments. Your mistakes will teach you the most!
Ether_Snake
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I'm curious about what may happen, if consumption doesn't pick up in the US to significant levels. China might end up financing its own bubble by trying to keep its economy from falling.
kathode said:
All cash, eh? Well, I have some WHR puts for sale. My ask is $7.30, what I paid for them. Look, I know they're $5.90 bid right now. But let's set that aside for a moment. This is a once and a lifetime opportunity. A trusted source has told me WHR IS GOING TO GO BANKRUPT! Yup! Now is your chance to own these puts for the very fair price of $7.30! Act fast - don't let this opportunity pass you by!
Relix said:
if you don't mind over the counter and foreign stuff I'm going for a long position 5-10 years on BYDDF (BYD automotive)
It's only starting to gain a foothold in the automotive industry but they've been making batteries for a long time and they will become one of the largest suppliers of batteries for electric cars out of China.
Also Warren Buffet bought a crapload into the company but that's shouldn't be the sole reason you would want to buy it but that you yourself have done your research and believe the company will prosper.
I think SNDK is relativley cheap. This stock was trading around $60 before the bank crisis started back in Summer '07. They recieve a steady stream of income through royalty payments. They own patents in SSD (Solid State Drives) technology. These drives are now offered with netbooks and once they become cheaper will offered in desktops and laptops as a standard feature.Relix said:
Samsung offered to buy the company out last Fall for around $26. It's hard to believe that SNDK dropped all the way to $5 last year.
Ninja_Hawk
Member
I have a few questions for you guys if you don't mind, since I mentioned I was new at this.
1. Where do alot of your investment ideas come from is it industries that seem to be booming or making the most money at a certain time and you just do your research on particular companies within that industry, or you look at companies in industries you already know alot about or have an interest in? If you look at a companies income statement and their balance sheet, and you see things seem positive, what motivates you to buy them, the potential growth or something that just seems to be a safe bet because a company may be well established?
2. How do you go about trying to predict whether a stock's price is going to jump or fall? I've thought that business fundamentals were the most important thing, like let's say a videogame company that is going to release a game or system that you know is probably going to sell very well, the companies going to make a big profit from it, so I expect something positive stock price wise to occur after it does, but i've noticed that this isn't always the case, sometimes the price will drop and i'm left trying to figure out why. Isn't the profitability of the company, the blood, what will ultimately decide whether it's good to invest in or not? What other factors am I missing or not taking into account?
1. Where do alot of your investment ideas come from is it industries that seem to be booming or making the most money at a certain time and you just do your research on particular companies within that industry, or you look at companies in industries you already know alot about or have an interest in? If you look at a companies income statement and their balance sheet, and you see things seem positive, what motivates you to buy them, the potential growth or something that just seems to be a safe bet because a company may be well established?
2. How do you go about trying to predict whether a stock's price is going to jump or fall? I've thought that business fundamentals were the most important thing, like let's say a videogame company that is going to release a game or system that you know is probably going to sell very well, the companies going to make a big profit from it, so I expect something positive stock price wise to occur after it does, but i've noticed that this isn't always the case, sometimes the price will drop and i'm left trying to figure out why. Isn't the profitability of the company, the blood, what will ultimately decide whether it's good to invest in or not? What other factors am I missing or not taking into account?
Ninja_Hawk said:
Most of my long positions are with companies that are already well known. However, I do play around with speculative stocks. It's all about being forward looking. Try to read all of the different financial publications that are out there (WSJ, Bloomberg.com, Financial Times, and BusinessWeek) for stock ideas. You can also watch Bloomberg TV, CNBC, and Fox Business Channel. Once you have located an attractive company do a fundamental analysis on the company. Armed with this data, you can then perform a technical analysis on the company looking at current price movements looking for the right opportunity to buy.
That's what I do or try to do when I'm not working.
Ninja_Hawk
Member
All right, thanks guys i'll look into those.
Hate to mention it again, but I've never felt as good about a Pink Sheet as WNBD
PR today as a featured product on Extreme Makeover Home Edition and they should be announcing Lowes as well as a national grocery chain shortly. It's on when they break into the US. Really like these guys long
PR today as a featured product on Extreme Makeover Home Edition and they should be announcing Lowes as well as a national grocery chain shortly. It's on when they break into the US. Really like these guys long
Ether_Snake
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TTWO almost completely recovered from its 9% drop.
Ninja_Hawk said:
Since I was 15 I've been value investor. I ready Security Analysis on a family vacation. Started a neighbourhood investment club when I was in grade 10. Started an investment corp. shortly after. I consumed everything out there on investment valuation. I ready every single Berkshire Hathaway annual report. I obtained the Canadian Investment Manager designation before second year university. Got my CFA, joined Canada's best value-oriented mutual fund. I searched for undervalued stocks, did lots of valuation work, model building, meeting with executives, etc. That was my life.
Everything changed about 2 years ago when I started to realize how imprecise, fluid and incomplete everything I thought I knew was. I realized what a sham most investment analysis is and how incomplete the portfolio management process is. I underwent a huge shift in my thinking. I started reading about guys like Jesse Livermore, Ed Seykota, William Ekhardt, Henry, Soros, etc. I started reading work by Benoit Mandelbrot (pioneer of fractals) and Nassim Taleb (before he was cool). The incredible thing is most of these great traders (I mean truly great with over 20%+ compounded over a long period of time) is that they have ZERO formal business/ finance training. They didnt grow up studying balance sheets. They come from strange backgrounds like engineering and philosophy (and some with no background in anything!).
What they all have in common is an understanding of the inner workings of price action and trading psychology. They dont trade earnings or macro forecasts. They dont care if XYZ makes widgets or airplanes. They simply trade the endogenous price action that exists as a result of how people come together in the marketplace. They may trade trends (like Dunn) or pivot points (like Livermore) or have an intimate understanding of reflexivity (like Soros).
These greats came to the same conclusion about how to trade the market: let the market tell you what to do. If you speak the markets language its shocking what it can tell you. Dont force an investment thesis upon a stock if the stock action is weak. A lot of value investors were burned last year because stocks looked cheap. Well they got their asses handed to them. It doesnt matter how cheap or how expensive a stock is. If it tells you it wants to go up, go with it! Short it if its weak. Youre going to be wrong often (perhaps the majority of the time) but if losses are kept at 2-3% and you let your winners ride then long-term the results will be huge. Think like baseball. A .400 career batting average would be phenomenal.
So thankfully I pulled everything I had out of the market the middle of last year armed with this knew knowledge. That move basically changed my life. I avoided what would have been a 50% collapse of my life savings. Since then Ive been trading my own account and its been an awesome ride.
If you read one book: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre. On the surface its the fictional story of trader Larry Livingston. In reality it is a collaboration between Lefevre and Jesse Livermore (i.e. Larry Livingston = Jesse Livermore). Its an incredible story about the rise and fall of the worlds greatest speculator.
Ill leave you with this quote from 1863 by Rengault, a French stockbroker:
I saw that it dipped into the $7 range and would have bought some shares but I was waiting for my funds to settle.Ether_Snake said:
Had my trigger on purchasing CIT shares in the premarket but wuss'd out. Up 90%...damn. I knew there would be a pump on this stock today.
BTW...good stuff RSTEIN.
I'm very, very uncomfortably long. Here we are bumping against 940 like June. The market really needs to break through here. We've had an awesome run and I want to hedge myself in case we fail at this level now that earnings are baked in. What I hope to see is a nice correction back to 920 (50 day moving average) then gradually break through the 940 level.
Unfortunately, there's not a clear way for me to protect myself here. Despite the market's recent surge, there aren't a whole lot of overbought stocks. So I'm not going to buy a lot of puts. Plus, we're still in earnings season and owning puts or calls is tough during the period (i.e. potentially ruinous). I've trimmed some of my SPY position and I sold my AXP/NTAP (having made about 15% on each last 4 days). I bought some INTC and CSCO puts to hedge my other tech positions.
If it does break out above 940 next week, then I'm still very well positioned. I'm 70% long. Got my puts, a few shorts, then cash. After the break out it'll probably correct back to 940. The current resistance should act as support during a retracement from the break out. Then I'll rebuy the SPY I sold today.
Unfortunately, there's not a clear way for me to protect myself here. Despite the market's recent surge, there aren't a whole lot of overbought stocks. So I'm not going to buy a lot of puts. Plus, we're still in earnings season and owning puts or calls is tough during the period (i.e. potentially ruinous). I've trimmed some of my SPY position and I sold my AXP/NTAP (having made about 15% on each last 4 days). I bought some INTC and CSCO puts to hedge my other tech positions.
If it does break out above 940 next week, then I'm still very well positioned. I'm 70% long. Got my puts, a few shorts, then cash. After the break out it'll probably correct back to 940. The current resistance should act as support during a retracement from the break out. Then I'll rebuy the SPY I sold today.
Ether_Snake
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CAE has the most erratic movement of all I own. Down when markets up, and vice versa.
Might buy ADSK in the near future, maybe Monday, we'll see. For shorter term objectives, I might buy some RTP. They are still low enough from their last high.
Might buy ADSK in the near future, maybe Monday, we'll see. For shorter term objectives, I might buy some RTP. They are still low enough from their last high.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Things look pretty decent so far today. Hope those leading indicators come out positive. The report will be released in about 10 minutes.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Well we are at 945 right now, so we could hit 951 by next week.
I'm writing January 2010 $14 calls against my shares in UNG which I bought at $13.06. The upfront premium is about 15% of the share price at this point. This way, if the shares go way up, the call will be exercised and I can quickly jump back in with the extra money, and if they go way down, then I can buy an option to close out the position and then continue holding the ETF long.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
We are at 950 right now with 30 minutes till the close. Could be a big half hour depending on how it swings. Gotta break through eventually.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
mckmas8808 said:
Okay looks like we hit 951 today. :lol
Ether_Snake
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Bought 10 shares of RTP at 147.80 today. I'm guessing it will be able to reach 180 to 200 in the near term, at which point I will either sell it all or just sell whatever I need to sell to make my investment back and keep the rest, since there is still a lot of potential for it to reach much higher than that. First purchase from my tax-exempt savings account
mckmas8808 said:
Here's what I'm looking at. It seemed to me like a no brainer to go long early in July when the SP500 bounced off 880/200 day support. It was a pretty riskless trade. A stop below the 200 day limited my downside to 2%. My SPY trade is up 7% and the various tech/financials I bought at the time are all up between 10-15%. I also bought some calls at the time that paid off.
Here's the problem: the Nasdaq just had its best week in a decade. A decade! There are now 37 companies that are overbought in the SP500. Everyone is waiting for this thing to break out but I'm worried that we've already spent all our gas with this upsurge.
Here's the two basic scenarios I'm waiting for:
1) We get the explosion to the upside and everyone goes apeshit. Money on the sidelines comes pouring in and we get another leg up.
2) We have a nice correction back to the 50 day moving average (the blue line). The market gets a chance to breath and THEN we can start a climb higher.
3) WARNING: LOW VOLUME! Look at that awful volume. Today's close above 950 wasn't done with a bang... it was done with a whimper. It's summer. Markets can get extremely choppy. A few bad eco reports/bad earnings and this market could break the 50 day and all bets are off.
I'm very long and have been since early July. I took some profits Friday and took some more today (LOGI, AAPL). I have CSCO, INTC, PPG, and WHR puts. These are all down about 20%. I have added a few shorts along the way but keep getting stopped out.
