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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Ovid

Member
July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Staples Inc. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. are slashing laptop prices and expanding their selections for the back-to-school shopping season, banking on the computer demand to sell more profitable accessories and services.

Staples, the largest office-supplies retailer, boosted its portable computer selection by 50 percent, while Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer, is selling out of a $298 Compaq Presario model in some stores.

Those retailers, along with Best Buy Co., are looking to cheaper laptops to entice customers to buy the external hard drives and bags that are three times as profitable as the computers, according to Stephen Baker, an analyst at NPD Group. Consumers spend almost as much on the extras as they do on the hardware; last year, people bought 89 cents’ worth of accessories for every $1 spent on PCs, said Bob O’Donnell, an analyst with research firm IDC.

“The retailers have done a great job of layering items onto that purchase,” said Lauri Brunner, a Minneapolis-based analyst at Thrivent Asset Management, which owns Wal-Mart, Staples and Best Buy shares among the $67 billion in assets it manages.

Laptop shipments are expected to climb 4.1 percent this year, tempering a 16 percent decline in demand for desktop PCs, according to market researcher Gartner Inc. Revenue may total $113 billion. By Bloomberg calculations, retailers could get a $11.3 billion slice of that, assuming profit margins of 10 percent. That compares with $30.3 billion they could make on accessories.
This can Western Digital (WDC) posted a great quarter the other day. They also raised their guidence considerably for the next quarter. There financials look good and I'm seriously thinking about purchasing shares. I will go over their annual report this weekend and make a decision next week.
 

bathala

Banned
RSTEIN said:
Ford: to sell or not to sell, that is the question.

Edit: out of F.
really?

i was thinking of buying it, because Ford is bringing back their Taurus line-up. unless it has a bad reputation
 

Ovid

Member
bathala said:
really?

i was thinking of buying it, because Ford is bringing back their Taurus line-up. unless it has a bad reputation
The Taurus was the #1 selling mid-sized car up until the mid to late 90's (the Camry took over that spot).

Nice avatar btw.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
bathala said:
really?

i was thinking of buying it, because Ford is bringing back their Taurus line-up. unless it has a bad reputation

Well, it's all just numbers to me. I don't know what F is doing or what their line up is. Some numbers told me to buy it. Now those same numbers are saying I should sell it. It could go up 200% next two years. I have no idea.
 

Ether_Snake

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Zyzyxxz said:
WTF is with the whole industry pushing their games to Q1.

They can't avoid COD MW2 forever and now Q1 is the crowded season.

I think we may be in for a bleak holiday shopping season for new releases other than COD MW2. Might be a good time to short ATVI for the holidays.

Usually delays have FAR more to do with unfinished product than avoiding the competition. After 2008, publishers have decided to focus on quality since it showed them that only the cream of the crop performed really well. But this will lead everyone to release their games at the same time, so they won't be any better off.

I think ATVI's Achilles heel this fall is Tony Hawk. Notice how it suddenly disappeared. Same with Blur, they sort of announced it, reaction was bad, poof, disappears (even if it's not supposed to be out this year).
 

Ovid

Member
Pimpwerx said:
What I predicted, but it doesn't seem to have any impact on the market. I'm butthurt with SKF b/c the bank accounting turned red to black. I'm up on everything else though. :) PEACE.
Why would you short bank stocks? That makes absolutely no sense.

When did you purchase SKF?
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
wow... CND really skyrocketing this morning on commodities. I'm down over $1k before the day has even begun!
 

Ether_Snake

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BHI up 4%
RTP up 8%
STP up 5%
:D

Markets are a bit crazy today.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Starting to get a bit more aggressive selling stuff. Sold my CSCO, TYC, and BAC. Probably sell a bit more stuff later today.
 

kathode

Member
Man, gotta get used to this 6:30-1pm trading day :) The markets open right as I'm waking up and close while I'm at lunch! Wanted to buy some puts today. Hope I'm not too late.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
tarius1210 said:
MVL earnings tomorrow. We better put out good numbers. I still can't believe we are trading at $40.

Gotta put Wolvie in some more titles to hit that earnings number!
 

Ether_Snake

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Damn Canadian dollar keeps on rising, almost back to $1USD, it's killing my returns:mad:

I bought TTWO at 8.87US or some such, and now that it's trading a dollar above that I'm in the red.
 

Relix

he's Virgin Tight™
I think we are experiencing some sort of bubble in the markets... wouldn't surprise me to see it going down next week, like a short correction.... also, oil is ridiculously high. No need for it to be up there.
 

Ether_Snake

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I was planning to sell RTP at $200 or so, but if it nears $185 or $190 I'm selling. Will have made some good money going from $147 in like two weeks.
 

Ovid

Member
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Marvel Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE: MVL - News), a global character-based entertainment and licensing company celebrating the 70th anniversary of its founding in 1939, today reported operating results for its second quarter and six months ended June 30, 2009. Marvel also today raised the low end of its full year 2009 financial guidance for net sales, net income and diluted earnings per share as a result of stronger than anticipated operating performance in the first half of 2009.

For Q2 2009, Marvel reported net sales of $116.3 million and net income of $29.0 million, or $0.37 per diluted share, compared to net sales of $156.9 million and net income of $46.7 million, or $0.59 per diluted share, in Q2 2008. The year-over-year decrease in net sales principally reflects the anticipated decrease in Licensing Segment net sales which benefited in the year-ago period from the initial recognition of licensing revenues related to the Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk feature films and from licensing associated with the Spider-Man 3 feature film which debuted in May 2007. Marvel's Chairman, Morton Handel, commented, “Marvel’s solid Q2 operating results reflect the strength of our core businesses supported by the growing global exposure of our corporate and character brands. We remain focused on extending demand for Marvel branded entertainment and licensed products, particularly for brands and international markets that have previously been underdeveloped. We pursue these initiatives while maintaining the strategic and financial discipline that has yielded high operating margins and strong cash flows.

“Principal photography for our Iron Man 2 feature film concluded on schedule last month, and the media and fan anticipation for this May 2010 release continues to build, as was demonstrated by tremendous media coverage and positive fan response around the recent Comic-Con in San Diego, attended by well over 120,000 fans. Iron Man 2 will be the first of four self-produced films to debut over the two-year period 2010-2012, in an ambitious creative project that will, for the first time, unite many of Marvel’s favorite Super Heroes in a story arc that builds to The Avengers in May 2012.

“Driving further brand exposure are the multiple Marvel character animated television series on air in the US and abroad. After the successful ’09 launches of Iron Man Armored Adventures and Wolverine and the X-Men, we are looking forward to the September launch of The Super Hero Squad on The Cartoon Network. This new series re-imagines existing Marvel characters for younger audiences. Also, our online exposure is ramping nicely with increasing levels of content and games which has led to a solid increase in our online traffic.”
The street was looking for $0.31.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Just bought some SPY as it broke through 1,000. I already have a huge core position that I bought at 880 and this tack on trade is just in case we get a surge through 1,000 to 1,025 or 1,050. On the other hand, I'm continuing to sell a lot of stuff, especially tech. I'm also buying some puts.

What we're seeing now is panic. As I said before, we have as many overbought stocks as we had oversold stocks during March. Just as people were panicking to sell in March, people are now freaking out that the market is going to leave them behind. Portfolio managers are saying "fuck it" and putting cash to work. It's a sickening feeling to have your portfolio in cash and T-Bills while watching the market tenaciously get away from you every single day.

We saw a huge surge after the March bottom as the number of oversold stocks naturally corrected themselves. We could see a sudden correction now, too. I have my puts in case that happens!
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Good results.

ATVI up 3.5%
STP up almost 6%
ERTS earnings tonight.
 

Ovid

Member
Electronic Arts Inc.'s fiscal first-quarter loss widened and revenue fell, largely because of accounting for deferred revenue, but the videogame maker topped Wall Street expectations on strong sales of "Sims 3" and sports titles for the Nintendo Wii.

Chief Financial Officer Eric Brown called the results "solid" as the company affirmed its fiscal-year forecast.

"We're expecting growth in the second half of the calendar year, and particularly, strong growth in our digital services," Mr. Brown said in an interview. "Retail demand is holding up and our frontline titles have been performing well."

He added the company still expects videogame-industry sales, which have fallen most of the year, to begin growing again by the end of the year.

Shares rose nearly 4% to $22.75 in after-hours trading. The stock has clawed back from its low in February, having risen by half, but it is still down nearly 60% in the last 11 months.

EA has been working hard to get back in the game after not scoring a profit in over two years, well before the retail slump set in. Still, the company has released some much-needed hits, including the latest Sims installment and Wii sports games. Turnaround efforts have been complicated by the downturn in consumer spending, which analysts are saying may not recover in time for the holiday season.

Last quarter, EA, well known for its Rock Band and Madden franchises, said it was ahead of schedule on its cost-cutting efforts and maintained it expects to record a profit this fiscal year.

For the quarter ended June 30, EA reported a loss of $234 million, or 72 cents a share, compared with a year-earlier loss of $95 million, or 30 cents a share.

Excluding stock-based compensation and other items, the loss narrowed to 2 cents from 42 cents.

Revenue dropped 20% to $644 million. Adjusted for deferred revenue, the figure increased 34% to $816 million.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected an adjusted per-share loss of 13 cents on adjusted revenue of $730 million.

Gross margin fell to 50.2% from 63.2%.
wsj.com
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Here's some more fodder for the Goldman conspiracy theorists out there:

Goldman Traders Post Record Number Of $100 Million Days

We knew Goldman has an awesome quarter with respect to trading, but the steadiness of the bank's profits in this area are something to behold.

Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. made more than $100 million in trading revenue on a record 46 separate days during the second quarter, or 71 percent of the time, breaking the previous high of 34 days in the prior three months. Trading losses occurred on two days during the months of April, May and June, down from eight in the first quarter, the New York-based bank said today in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company made at least $50 million on 58 of the 65 trading days during the quarter, or 89 percent of the time.

Of course, conspiracy theorists will think this has something to do with them stealing money, or frontrunning or engaging in High-Frequency Trading. But they said yesterday that HFT-related gains accounted for just 1% of annual revenue (so about $500 million), which means there's no way that can account for so many $100 million days.

That being said, nobody has offered an explanation of how they pull this off so steadily.

TWO days of losses? WTF? That's incredible.
 

Ether_Snake

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What what what: ERTS down 7%, BHI down 7%,

Baker Hughes shares fell more than 5% on Wednesday after the company said it faces price erosion in its international business on the heels of a decline of 77% in its second-quarter net income.

ERTS wasn't down much last night when I checked in AH.

STP down 6%??

Suntech Power signs contract with recurrent energy to deliver 5MW of modules in Q4 2009 for California's largest solar photovoltaic system (STP) 20.58 : Co announces that it has been selected to supply over 25,000 modules for Recurrent Energy's five megawatt municipal solar power project atop the Sunset Reservoir in San Francisco, California. All modules are scheduled for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2009.
 

DogWelder

Member
esc said:
Bought a lot of NRI today, they are up for FDA approval soon.
Uhh, wow, so I dumped this yesterday after I noticed some high volume last-minute trades and the company's past "leaks", looks like I was right on the money (down 25%).
 

Ether_Snake

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Oh look at that, CAE up 1.45% when everyone is down.
 
AHR up ~40% right now. I'm not sure why I held on to this lemon for so long, but now it's so devalued there's no point in selling :lol

LPX has been nice recently.

Since most of my money is already invested, I'm not going to be buying much of anything for quite a while I figure. Been slow for me because of that, mostly just sitting and waiting.
 

Ovid

Member
Ether_Snake said:
Oh look at that, CAE up 1.45% when everyone is down.
Don't worry it will probably go down AH like it always does.

Zyzyxxz said:
SHIIIIIIIIIIIIT!

I was gonna buy a load of AIG @ 13 and it suddenly jumped $5 today? WTF
You'll have another chance when that piece of crap company posts "earnings" on Friday.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Sold my AT&T puts.

Bought AMZN, CL, EXC, and short LMT. Got stopped out of some SPY when it broke through 100 this morning. Just bought my position back.
 

Ovid

Member
CITY OF COMMERCE, Calif. (AP) -- Discount retailer 99 Cents Only Stores Inc. on Wednesday said it posted a fiscal first-quarter profit as more shoppers frequented the company's stores for discounted merchandise in the recession.

The company earned a profit of $9.5 million, or 14 cents per share, compared with a loss of $1.5 million, or a loss of 2 cents per share, last year amid high food and energy prices.

For the quarter ended June 27, sales rose 9 percent to $332.1 million from $304.9 million last year. During the quarter, same-store sales rose 23.6 percent at its Texas stores, for example.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected an 8-cent profit and revenue of $329.2 million.

Chief Executive Eric Schiffer said customer traffic has been strong, as consumers are looking to save on household items.

The company was debt-free at the end of the quarter and had $155.5 million in cash.

For the second quarter, same-store sales will be positive and in the low single digits.

Earnings will decline sequentially because of minimum-wage increases in Texas and Nevada, a calendar shift and seasonally higher temperatures that will affect merchandise.
Didn't get the pop I was expecting.
 

Ether_Snake

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tarius1210 said:
Don't worry it will probably go down AH like it always does.

Aaaaaaaaaand it dropped in AH, but at least it's still up for the day.

And, noooooooooooooooooooo:

Activision cuts revenue view

* Q2 EPS ex-items 8 cts/share vs Street view 7 cts

* Q2 non-GAAP rev $801 mln vs Street view $810.7 mln

* Cuts 2009 sales forecast, affirms adjusted EPS view

* Sees Q3 EPS ex-items 3 cents, rev $700 mln (Adds CEO and analyst comments, details from conference call, byline)

Activision Blizzard Inc (ATVI.O) offered a disappointing quarterly forecast and cut its 2009 revenue outlook with two major games delayed till 2010, but its shares were little changed as profit turned out better than expected.

The video game publisher slashed its 2009 non-GAAP revenue outlook by $300 million to $4.5 billion as it shifted hotly anticipated titles "Singularity" and "StarCraft II" into next year. But it affirmed its annual forecast for adjusted profit of 63 cents a share.

And for the September quarter, the company forecast a profit excluding items of 3 cents a share on non-GAAP revenue of $700 million. That is below analysts' average estimate for earnings per share of 10 cents on revenue of $888 million, according to Reuters Estimates.

"They maintained their [2009] bottom line guidance, which was a relief to some people," Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey said.

But he said the company's move to lower 2009 revenue guidance was not just from the push-out of the two titles into 2010, but a recognition of persistent weakness in the industry.

Activision's shares rose close to 4 percent in after-hours trade, before settling little changed.

At least it wasn't too affected by the news. But Singularity is NOT a "hotly anticipated title" at all, in fact it tank 100% certain unless it gets 10/10 reviews, totally unmarktable (sci-fi AND psychic powers AND space-distortion or some such? Ridiculous). As for SCII, not surprised. I'm still afraid of Tony Hawk's plastic board, I wonder how bad this will be on ATVI's profits.

TTWO made back its loss in AH today. But damn US dollar keeps falling:(

Also: Will China's Accounting Cause a U.S. Stock Correction?

Are China's national accounts accurate, or is it manufacturing GDP statistics in order to support the idea that it is floating above the global recession? The latter is admittedly the most extreme answer to the questions that credible sources are raising concerning the legitimacy of China's GDP data. Whatever the explanation, these questions have troubling implications for U.S. investors.
 

Ovid

Member
AIG, FNM, and FRE with double digit percentage gains two days in a row.
That's incredible.

Fannie, Freddie, AIG, and CIT all lost their gains rather quickly.

Everything in the red for me.
 

Ether_Snake

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ATVI finished up 10%:) Drove up TTWO (but lost its gains in AH) and THQ as well. Now if only the US dollar could get stronger. I want to sell. But I guess that will have to wait.

EDIT: NVDA up 9% in AH after beating expectations.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN0639222620090806?rpc=44

* Q2 EPS ex-items 7 cts/shr

* Street view was for loss 2 cts, ex-items

* Q2 revenue $776.5 mln vs Street view $712.3 mln

* Sees Q3 revenue up 5-7 pct from Q2

* Shares up 8.6 pct (Adds executive and analyst comments, details from call, byline)

By Gabriel Madway

SAN FRANCISCO, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Graphics chipmaker Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O) posted better-than-expected results on improved product demand and set a current-quarter sales outlook above Wall Street expectations, and its shares rose 8.6 percent on Thursday.

Nvidia's core business is in consumer personal computers, a market that has proved healthier in the downturn than the one for PCs used by businesses.

The chip sector as a whole was stung by a steep falloff in PC purchases as the economy began to falter last year.

But Intel, the world's largest chipmaker, said last month it saw better-than-expected consumer demand for PCs and analysts expect launches this fall of new operating systems from Windows 7 and Apple to help boost sales.

"We're seeing strength pretty much across the board," Chief Executive Jen-Hsun Huang said on a conference call with analysts in response to a question about demand.

Nvidia expects sales for the current quarter to rise 5 to 7 percent sequentially to roughly $815 million to $830 million, well above the average Wall Street estimate of $765 million.

Nvidia also forecast gross margins rising by 36 to 38 percent for the October quarter.

"It's kind of what the stock needed to get to a higher level," said Wedbush Morgan analyst Patrick Wang.

"They're comfortable with giving better gross margin guidance, expenses are under control. They're seeing broad-based strength with relatively lean inventories."

Chief Financial Officer David White said told Reuters the enterprise business appeared to have bottomed out: "Some of the signals we're beginning to see now are evidence of signs of recovery in the second half of the year."
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
This is a chart from Credit Suisse. Their work shows the market at "euphoric" levels which is the same conclusion as my own work (as I said before, there is an equal amount of panic here on the buy side as there was on the sell side in March). I continue to sell the stocks that are up 15-20% since we bounced off 880. I still have lots of puts (sold my TJX puts today). I will probably add some more puts tomorrow - even if the market is down.

Euphora.jpg
 

Ether_Snake

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More on Dubious News Versus Cheery Data Out of China

The latest China fun facts versus relentlessly upbeat official figures roundup comes with the help of reader Michael. First is that China has been reporting decent growth, with the latest release clocking in at 7.9%. That is an interesting figure in and of itself, since the government has said that anything below 8% would result in an inability to absorb new workers, meaning rising unemployment. And some a bit closer to the situation, like Marc Faber in Singapore, contend that China is growing only at 2%.

Other sightings seem to bear out the Faber view. First is that China is warning of a "grave" employment outlook:

China Tuesday warned of a "grave" situation in the jobs market with millions of graduates and migrant workers yet to find work as companies continue to struggle with the effects of the global slump...

"China's current employment situation is still grave and the pressure for job creation remains large," said Wang Yadong, a senior official at the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security's employment section.

"To make things worse, the impact of the international financial crisis has not yet bottomed out and a lot of companies are still facing business difficulties, posing big unemployment risks," he told reporters.

Wang said around 147 million migrant workers had moved to cities for jobs by June but more than four million had yet to find one.

Moreover, three million university graduates, including those who had left last year, were still unemployed, he said.

China's urban registered unemployment rate stood at 4.3 percent in the second quarter, unchanged from the first three months and up from 4.2 percent at the end of 2008, Wang said.

Wang added that the government aimed to keep the rate below 4.6 percent this year.

However, the actual jobless figure may be much bigger than the official rate, which does not include migrant workers and university graduates.

[...]

Next are the "be careful what you wish for" policies. China took very aggressive measures to pump up bank lending, with the result that a fair bit went into the stock market, producing what looks like a bubble. Now the authorities are trying to contain it. So now banks are slowing their new lending. From Cajing:

China's big state-owned commercial banks extended around 168 billion yuan worth of new loans in July, down sharply from the 497 billion issued in June, banking sources told Caijing on August 4.

The sharp decline in lending signals the effectiveness of the central bank's "fine tuning." While officially maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy, the People's Bank of China and other regulators have been informally warning commercial banks to maintain the integrity of the credit evaluation process and have penalized aggressive lenders by requiring them to purchase billions of yuan worth of bills.

More at the link.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Gonna get a pop here. I'm definitely going to be selling some stuff if we don't get a meaningful move above 1007 which was the Nov/Oct peaks.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Bulls gotta take charge here but they're not. I'm cutting some longs. We briefly popped over 1007 but now we're down at around 1004. Bought some more puts. Still very long but getting nervous.
 
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