Wow, COOL up 24% uh? I wonder if it is really justified. But good for you
BTW guys Wolframalpha.com is awesome for searching for info on stocks. For example HP+eps = http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=HP+eps or HP+eps VS DELL eps = HP eps VS DELL eps
Anyway like I said I sold ATVI and here is my reasoning:
The management has consistently demonstrated that they have no idea what the're doing, that they don't understand the
market. Emphasis on market here is important. EA is a company that is showing that they know how to turn things around, how to seize opportunities, they knew why they went down and hence understood how to come back. They managed to bring core gamers back to their games by making some good quality games, they succeeded in finally getting the most out of their acquisition with Bioware, they showed restraint and clarity of mind by canceling their TTWO offer, and they positioned themselves quite well on the casual-mobile front.
ATVI is unable to figure out what is a good pick. They are making a Prototype sequel, which shows desperation; they're doing it not because the brand established itself or because they can turn things around for it, they are publishing a sequel because it will be done on the very cheap and they need to release
something to give a semblance of life. It has no chance of doing better than Prototype 1, which could NOT have become a big hit like they were looking for.
They bought Bizarre Creations, makers of Project Gotham Racing, to end up publishing Blur, another game that was 100% certain to fall flat and not establish itself as a brand. The studio was basically bought in the hopes it would guarantee ATVI a position in the racing genre, yet they ended up with something entirely different than what they should have been looking for. They hired Arnold Schwarzenegger because they were impressed by Terminator 2 and went on to make The Eraser.
Singularity was a no-hit-chance title. Made by an unknown studio, no chance at capturing a wide crowd because of its steel-cold-barren-sci-fi-Soviet theme, it was a certain flop right on paper.
Guitar Hero. Since when do companies announce that their brands are officially dead? Instead of rethinking the series and prepare themselves to release it anew at the right time, the management preferred to send a message to any investors looking at the video game sector: We give up on Guitar Hero and declare the whole music genre dead, so don't imagine for a second that this will benefit our competitors since we are saying the genre is dead and so it is.
We'll it's not. They are demonstrating that they do NOT understand the market. They do NOT understand that the music genre can actually be once again VERY successful. They don't know how it can be done, because they are clueless. Music is still popular, music games can still be popular.
Tony Hawk and DJ Hero: I won't even bother addressing this. It's similar to what I've described above (one dead-on-arrival serie, one missed opportunity).
COD: Battlefield is coming back, the REAL Battlefield, the one Pachter doesn't know of because BF2 goes back to the days where he had no idea wtf BF was and he never witnessed firsthand how much people were into the thing. I have MAJOR DOUBTS about whatever ATVI will release this year for COD. I see three possibilities actually: IW is not ready to release it this year because of the post-MW2 internal fiasco, so they'll either release something that won't live up to the expectations of the market at a time when BF might be making a come back (you don't want to see your flagship series do worst than expected with the competition making a comeback in the same genre)
or they won't release any COD this year, which will make investors freakout, or they'll release one that isn't from IW, which means it's a completely wildcard.
Blizzard: Their long development cycles are a double-edge sword. Long development cycles is not always a good thing; the industry moves FAST and your designs can quickly become outdated, and long development cycles can lead to easy-going development for a year with excessive trial-and-error, wasted production hours, etc. I think Blizzard will NOT be able to make a true successor to WoW. The market is changing quickly, and Blizzard cannot expect a 2004-market to still exist and be ready to jump in whatever they'll release to replicate WoW's success when it releases. So this means they'll have to do something very
different and new. This is dangerous because it means chances are high that they'll never be able to have the equivalent subscriptions WoW had, or similar revenues. Best way to look at it is Final Fantasy. Square will never release a FF title that will sell more than FFVII did. There are various factors that make this simply a one-time event that can't happen again for them. So in the end, Blizzard's odds of replicating WoW's success are extremely low. The market is changing too fast and the conditions for WoW's success are not going to come back.
And I haven't even talked about ATVI's minuscule presence in the mobile/digital market, which again points to the management's ignorance, lack of foresight and lack of understanding of the market.
Considering all of this, I expect ATVI to either slowly erode in prominence, and/or buy a studio or two. They'll try to save face on the console market by possibly buying TTWO, which is small enough yet with a good ability to turn unlikely candidates into successes using a proven design philosophy and now owns a couple of good IPs, but the console market, now an exclusively core-gamer market, has a very uncertain future. Or they'll go for some companies in the mobile sector, which is like picking internet stocks back in the late 90s. ATVI has not demonstrated the understanding and foresight ERTS has demonstrated to pick the right companies. Or they'll do both.
So my conclusion is that ATVI is going to go down because if they do nothing, profits will sink and the bigger they are the harder they fall, or they will do something which means buying studios that are likely to bring them nothing good in the end.
It was not easy selling for a 0% profit when I once had something like a 40% gain (soon after the merger), but I am too confident of my view of the company to hold it any longer.
edit: I own ERTS, I'm up 18% on it. I also own TTWO and I'm up 51.56% on it.
BigNastyCurve said:
What game is everyone talking about?
http://simulator.investopedia.com/Game/ListGames.aspx?type=Search&item=NeoGAF&sc=1&scur=Both