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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

argon

Member
Guys, Garmin is seriously undervalued here. 26.2 trailing P/E for a market leader with no debt, 20% growth for next 5 years (estimated), and going into its biggest holiday ever.

Disclosure: I am long GRMN =] but seriously, do the research before buying.
 

Ether_Snake

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Yesterday was bad, so was today.

ATVI? Down 4.61%. It's the basically the second time I watch this stock go down on good news because of shitty market conditions.

CAE (CGT) down 2% today. In the red.

IMMR down 6.79% (down somewhere along similar numbers yesterday), and moreso in after hours. In the red.

TTWO down 3.87%, in the red. Been going down for some time now since the Manhunt 2 crap.

So yeah I'm losing money. Oh well.

Oh yeah, and of course the US dollar keeps on falling, which makes it all the worst:| What a waste of money. What's the point of investing in the right company if the market is going to sink it even on record earnings.
 
nakedsushi said:
I'm glad I took the risk and bought some CROX yesterday when it was around $34. It picked up again and I traded it when it reached $38.50. Made a decent amount of change. Maybe I'll take the BF out for a fancy dinner =D
Yep, Crox seems to have found support and is slowly crawling its way back up, even while the rest of the market continues to dive.

I found an interesting article about Crox 2 days ago:

The Crocs (CROX) quarter was definitely not worth writing home about. There were high expectations from the company, but investors were disappointed and the stock is down $35 in one day. Granted they did not crush expectations, but earnings were still good. Revenues of $256.3 million, vs. $111.3 million a year ago and earnings were 66 cents per share, vs. 27 cents a year ago. Demand in some markets were too high and Crocs could not make their product fast enough.

While brand dilution is a possibility considering companies like Sketchers and Payless are selling knock offs, exclusive licensing deals from colleges and companies like Disney will keep them "unique". Moreover, new products will take some seasonality out of their earnings and overseas expansion continues to flourish.

Crocs is like Deckers (DECK), another footwear manufacturer made popular by their Ugg brand shoes. That stock fell out of favor between Dec 2004 and Nov 2005, when it fell from $48 to $17 after a huge run from $3 to $47 between 2002 and 2004. Currently, DECK is a $145 stock and investors who sold it back in Dec 2004 would be kicking themselves.

I believe Crocs will be ok in the long run. If you own it and rode it all the way down, I recommend keeping it. Its too late to sell. If you don't own it, probably best to give it some time. I bought the stock in the mid-thirties myself and sold 50% of my position before earnings. So, while I am still up on the stock, I am not in the black as much as I would have liked. This is a lesson to those who try to guess which way high flyers will go after earnings, and this is why I wrote a piece last week about not buying a momentum stock before earnings. For every Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Bidu (BIDU), there is a Crocs and a Las Vegas Sands (LVS). For investors who followed my advice on Crocs back in July, or in Sept, you are either still up on the stock or breaking even. It's time to take a step back from the stock. Don't buy more and don't sell.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/52780-crocs-the-next-deckers

Companies that bring in over a billion dollars in revenue in a year (which Crox did this past year) aren't a fad.

I bought more shares of Crox this week at around 35.00. I believe in the longterm horizon of this company, and believe it is way oversold.
 
I am buying a substantial amount of shares of EMC Monday. It has been beaten down recently and looks like a hell of a bargain at its current price. It's price still hasn't fully reflected the outstanding performance of VMWare (which it owns 86% of) but will eventually.

Ether_Snake said:
So yeah I'm losing money. Oh well.

Oh yeah, and of course the US dollar keeps on falling, which makes it all the worst:| What a waste of money. What's the point of investing in the right company if the market is going to sink it even on record earnings.
Over a short horizon, six months or less, stocks are extremely hard to predict and can go either way, no matter how good of a company it is. Good companies over the long term WILL earn better than market returns. You just have to stick with them and they will deliver.
 

gkryhewy

Member
Nintendo down ANOTHER 5+% on the nikkei at open. On the bright side, I didn't buy any more on Friday. On the other hand, well, fuck. Oversold for sure, but that doesn't seem to be bothering the Japanese.
 

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Ether_Snake said:
Oh yeah, and of course the US dollar keeps on falling, which makes it all the worst:| What a waste of money. What's the point of investing in the right company if the market is going to sink it even on record earnings.

While I generally believe market timing is bad, I'm probably going to hold out on my Roth this year and go for a new car. My current car is 16 years old. It's doing fine right now, but with the USD going down and the market generally over-valued, I figure it is a decent gamble to get a Honda Civic before Honda adjusts for USD being worth shit, and investing next year -- especially if we crash. In that even, I'm going to jack up 401k to something like 20%.


EDIT:

I haven't been paying attention in a few days. It looks like the adjustments may be taking place. There appears to be a sharp dive going on in stocks that I think are grossly over-valued. Should be interesting to see if this continues.
 

kathode

Member
Does anyone think AMZN is worth holding onto? This thing is sinking like a rock and has already ditched nearly 20% of the value from when I bought it. I was going to hold thinking that the Christmas season would lift them a bit, but I'm afraid with the P/E ratio being so high that this will be seeing the $50-60 range before it gets a bump, and then the bump will only put it back in the $70s. Any thoughts?
 
Ouch ouch ouch, TTWO is doing terrible today. < 15! Good day to buy, I guess.

I took advantage of Nvidia dropping down to 31 and bought some to hold till the end of the year.
 

Ether_Snake

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I'm going down big time (IMMR at 13, bought it at 17). I'm holding on everything, but there is no way in hell that I will buy anything, even tho I see good opportunities. You never know when low is low. I prefer to rely on overall recovery to give me a hint that a low was actually a low. As far as we know right now everything could have fallen only half as much as it will.
 

Ripclawe

Banned
Relating to stocks
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/338522_sharebuilder07.html

ING says it will acquire Bellevue's ShareBuilder
Company reportedly seeking larger space
By JOHN COOK
P-I REPORTER

Dutch financial services giant ING announced an agreement Tuesday to acquire Bellevue online broker ShareBuilder for $220 million in cash.

The acquisition talks first were reported in the Seattle P-I last week, with former ShareBuilder executive Jeff Huse noting that the $220 million price is a "terrific deal" and a "very good outcome."
 

Troblin

Member
Ether_Snake said:
I'm going down big time (IMMR at 13, bought it at 17). I'm holding on everything, but there is no way in hell that I will buy anything, even tho I see good opportunities. You never know when low is low. I prefer to rely on overall recovery to give me a hint that a low was actually a low. As far as we know right now everything could have fallen only half as much as it will.

I wouldn't worry about it too much.
If your playing long-term you'll be fine.

I think everyone is in the same boat with Short Term loss.

I was up ~ 30% on my portfolio ~ a month ago and now I'm barely breaking even.
 

Ether_Snake

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Troblin said:
I wouldn't worry about it too much.
If your playing long-term you'll be fine.

I think everyone is in the same boat with Short Term loss.

I was up ~ 30% on my portfolio ~ a month ago and now I'm barely breaking even.

Same. I was about to make around 2000$ on a 7000$ investment. I've made good investments, just at the wrong time:|
 
Yep, just stick with it. Most people had big gains for the year until 2 weeks ago and now are barely up for the year (or even down).

Stick with your stocks, and you will be back to where you were and more.
 
Today has been great, but I am still not convinced.

Options expire this Friday, and that could cause a pretty big downturn for stocks on Thursday.
 

Javaman

Member
sonarrat said:
Man, I could have almost doubled my net worth by shorting it yesterday and then rebuying it.

Making decisions based on the previous outcome is the easy part. You chose not to do so yesterday for what was likely a good reason at the time, risk.
 

xsarien

daedsiluap
sonarrat said:
ETFC (E*Trade)

Current price $3.91
Previous close $8.59

*jawdrop

Karma's a bitch. I don't have much pity for these banks that either made loans to people who flat-out couldn't afford them, or tricked people into variable interest deals when they were sure they were getting fixed.

(I do pity the homeowners who just wanted a roof over their heads. Well, the real homeowners. The flippers can rot in Hell for pumping the bubble in the first place.)
 

Ether_Snake

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Yeah I'm still in the red because of IMMR and TTWO, but I'm recovering.
 

gkryhewy

Member
So, uh, tomorrow looks like another "buying opportunity" for NTDOY. Japanese fat cat investors don't care about NPD.

I picked up some ATVI yesterday.
 

Ether_Snake

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gkrykewy said:
So, uh, tomorrow looks like another "buying opportunity" for NTDOY. Japanese fat cat investors don't care about NPD.

I picked up some ATVI yesterday.

What sucks is I would have bought a lot more ATVI already, but I've had it since mid August and everytime they have good news the markets bring them down anyway. It's the best stock I invested in yet too, so you can imagine how much down the rest is (altho CGT hasn't been doing too bad considering the market's strong downturn)!
 

Tarazet

Member
Oh man, Jasper is going to be upset tomorrow. STV just released their earnings and they were down almost 11% afterhours. :lol

I was right to profit off the pre-earnings run up and then bail on it like a cheap hooker.
 

Ether_Snake

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STP up 7.85% and another 2.71% today. They've been doing steadily well.

WTF is wrong with ATVI, seriously.
 

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
kathode said:
Does anyone think AMZN is worth holding onto? This thing is sinking like a rock and has already ditched nearly 20% of the value from when I bought it. I was going to hold thinking that the Christmas season would lift them a bit, but I'm afraid with the P/E ratio being so high that this will be seeing the $50-60 range before it gets a bump, and then the bump will only put it back in the $70s. Any thoughts?

That's hard to say. Generally I wouldn't sell to lock in losses, and Amazon is a visionary company -- everyone buys online from them and they'll be there for the long run. But the P/E ratio is so high, I don't know. It may be better to lock in those losses and buy something more reasonable. You may make more in the long run this way.
 

Tarazet

Member
teh_pwn said:
That's hard to say. Generally I wouldn't sell to lock in losses, and Amazon is a visionary company -- everyone buys online from them and they'll be there for the long run. But the P/E ratio is so high, I don't know. It may be better to lock in those losses and buy something more reasonable. You may make more in the long run this way.

This is going to be a hard winter for retail, and Amazon isn't going to be an exception. I would not advise holding onto anything tied to consumer spending in this environment.
 

Ether_Snake

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sonarrat said:
This is going to be a hard winter for retail, and Amazon isn't going to be an exception. I would not advise holding onto anything tied to consumer spending in this environment.

Except video games! But then again ATVI is down, so what the heck, screw it all!
 

kathode

Member
teh_pwn said:
That's hard to say. Generally I wouldn't sell to lock in losses, and Amazon is a visionary company -- everyone buys online from them and they'll be there for the long run. But the P/E ratio is so high, I don't know. It may be better to lock in those losses and buy something more reasonable. You may make more in the long run this way.

Yup, I went ahead and sold it and bought more GME. I have a couple big profitable sales from earlier in the year so the tax help will be appreciated. GME just got an upgrade and has earnings on 11/20. Expect it will be good.
 

rage1973

Member
I just bought 400 shares of AAPL at 162.80. I am taking up a trading position on few stocks that can hold up in this downturn market.
 

gkryhewy

Member
Cheesemeister said:
NTDOY Last Close: 69.17, Bid: 66.10 x200, Ask: 66.19 x200

Down over $3 (4.4%) today. Time to buy?

Also, ETFC is down more than 10%.

The intra-day pink sheet fluctuations really don't matter. What's killing the stock (as in August) are the institutional owners in Japan selling it to make up for their losses in other sectors. I'm going to hold through this, but it may take several months to recover back to new highs.

EDIT: If you thought today was a good buy, you're gonna love tomorrow! Looks like $63.xx.
 

Ether_Snake

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Asian markets are down again for the 4th day.

Even if Wiis are selling it means nothing in this market state. Like I said many times before, it's the second time in a row that ATVI had great fiscal results yet the stock went down. It shouldn't be down, same thing for a lot of other companies. The boats are just following the sea level.
 
I decided to just ride STP out. I believe solar power stock is the type of tech that can double, triple or quadruple in value in the next few years.
 

Tarazet

Member
Maxwell House said:
I decided to just ride STP out. I believe solar power stock is the type of tech that can double, triple or quadruple in value in the next few years.

Uh.. thing is, it has already tripled in value in the past year. Keep that in mind.
 

boo7z

Member
13pt_piws_8802.gif
 

Ether_Snake

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sonarrat said:
Uh.. thing is, it has already tripled in value in the past year. Keep that in mind.

Yeah why risk everything at such times?:| I wish I was in your position. But hey it's your money:p
 

gkryhewy

Member
Hey, Nintendo finished up 4% on the nikkei after starting the day down 4%. An 8% swing in one day is... unusual, but I'll take it.
 

kathode

Member
GME getting hammered in the same way as AMZN with disappointing outlook. Don't know why I keep buying into these stocks :) I'm just going to sit on this and wait for a while. Every single move I make is hurting me. Time to take a step back and work on paying down my margin loan.
 

koam

Member
I haven't really followed this thread for about a month or so, nice to see a bunch of new faces playing the market in here.
 
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