• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Woooooooooooooooot! Haha, never saw that coming.

Too bad I didn't increase my stake in the company. I still only have 140 shares:|

What's good is that when I bought the share originally, at something like 17.20 I think, I was aiming for a 27.50, and this is the share's price that is being discussed in the deal.

If only I had invested more in ATVI:| And really, I don't feel like selling...

Anyone think I should dump more in TTWO? Surely someone will just buy them anyway soon. I always thought ATVI would buy them later in 2008 or early 2009, it compliments the company nicely with their sports lineup. But now I don't know, I could see EA or even Ubisoft moving in earlier than expected, heck, maybe even Capcom!
 

rage1973

Member
WasteLand Soldier said:
if i dump a few grand in ATVI before opening tomorrow is that safe?
It's a gamble. The stock will definitely open up much higher so you will have to pay more than what the stock closed at. Where the stock goes from there is the big question mark.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
WasteLand Soldier said:
if i dump a few grand in ATVI before opening tomorrow is that safe?

You can't do that really, if you buy at market price chances are it will open at around 27 so you'll pay 27 a share anyway. If you put a stop order at let's say 23 it won't go through because by 7am tomorrow morning it will already be higher. If we could do that we'd all be rich:p
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Soka said:
I got into ATVI early last week, so I'm pretty pumped about this. I have a suspicion that this news will cause EA's stock to drop a bit. I also feel like EA will get the itch to buy out as much of Ubisoft as it can, which makes me strongly consider inventing in either Ubisoft or EA.

Ubisoft has been on a steady rise since December 2004, when EA bought a large stake in the company. It hasn't stopped going up since, went all the way to around 57 euro, stock was split to 25 euro around a year ago, and has gone all the way back up to 59 (will hit 60 tomorrow for sure). It's very expensive now tho, and at an all-time high.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Bah it's ok, I'm losing money on everything else anyway!:p ATVI has been the only stock that held in the gains since I bought it. I'm not even gonna sell anyway. We'll see where Activision Blizzard takes me from here:)

EDIT: BTW I think it would be a big mistake by EA if they bought Ubisoft. The company doesn't compliment their portfolio at all, it relies heavily on the Montreal studio and the top talent at the Montreal studio do not want to work for EA (nobody does really). Now that Eidos is here, if EA bought Ubisoft there would be a LOT of employees that would leave for Eidos, which would be great for Eidos but a major loss for EA (and EA knows that, which is why they once mentioned that for Ubi to be a potential buy they have to make sure they can keep the employees for a long long time, which is really not going to happen, or that the major series can continue to be a success on their own without the need of the staff, again very unlikely). Anyway if it happens, you can bet that:

#1- The incentives given by Montreal would be reviewed because EA already has a studio here.
#2- Eidos would benefit because nobody in the dev teams want to work for EA, and people like the idea of fresh change so they would enjoy the challenge of going to work for a whole new studio that isn't from EA (Eidos).
#3- A lot of the top staff are French, they are already used at the idea of working overseas; you can expect a lot of them to leave for wherever they would want to work at.
#4- EA will be unable to keep the big series like Rainbow 6, Assassin's Creed, Prince of Persia, as top sellers. The quality will go down and people will move to other series.

Disney would be more likely to buy Ubisoft as far as I'm concerned:p In fact I'm gonna keep an eye on DIS, I didn't know they were trading in the 30s.
 

fobtastic

Member
Eh, I'll bite. I was considering ATVI for a while, so this recent news has me kicking myself. Ether_Snake, I'm considering getting options on TTWO. This would be my first investment in a video game company, and I haven't really done my due diligence. ATVI has a bit of a rocky history to say the least, but what do you know about Zelnick? He's already stated that he's not interested in selling, and he apparently has a reputation for turning faltering companies around.

Anyway, I'm still considering ATVI and even NTDOY. NTDOY is way up there right now, but I can't help but think that they're going to explode with Wii Fit.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Zelnick is saying (IMO) indirectly that currently the offers they have been getting are not worth what the company is worth to his eyes (everyone probably lowballed them, especially with GTA's delay). So it doesn't mean he doesn't want to sell, I'm 100% sure that this is the goal of the management. But he wants to put the company on a better stand so the offers they will get will be more reflective of the company's worth.

Now with the purchase of ATVI, more attention will be brought to what I consider a very undervalued market. Ubisoft was already saying that when it comes to mergers/acquisitions they are not in discussions only with EA but instead with bigger players (they don't say who specifically, but they were hinting at huge companies like Disney, Time Warner, etc.). So I believe that instead of wondering who EA will buy next, we have to consider that the video game sector as a whole is being looked at by companies who were undervaluing it until now. It has become clear that video games are a constantly growing sector, that there is a lot more space for continued growth, and that it is rather stable compared to other sectors. It won't be long IMO before the game sector is swallowed by the major media conglomerates, the Disneys and Time Warners, News Corp., etc.

I don't know if this sudden merger will hasten things for Take2, but I think it is 100% sure they will be bought by the end of 2008 or early 2009 as I said in previous posts, because I think that it will take more or less that long for Zelnick to consider the company as being fully stable and hence for offers to be decent enough. They are the only ones that compete against EA on the sports front, even if EA remains the definite #1 in that market, so it makes the company very interesting to others and in a way less complimentary to EA. Altho it's not impossible that suddenly Take2 would get a sudden "good" offer simply because of what is happening, which means as far as I know Take2 could be bought next week:p But I'm sure they will be bought, 100% sure, by at the latest early 2009.
 

fobtastic

Member
Ether_Snake, interesting take on the industry.

I like Take-Two for 2K and 2K Sports, but I feel that Rockstar Games is too much of a loose cannon. Regardless, they certainly do have some very attractive IPs.

What's your take on Nintendo? The current scary-high price makes me feel like it's too much of a risk with the potential for a correction, but the upcoming months should see some incredible sales numbers. And again, I am confident that Wii Fit will bust the doors wide open.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
I wonder if under Zelnick Rockstar will stop making controversial games other than GTA. I mean it hasn't paid off with Manhunt, I felt it had a negative impact on the shares (like when Bully was about to be released). I think they know they can't rely too much on shock factor anymore with the AO rating they were first given.

As for Nintendo I never bought any shares and some people here know I'm not very optimistic about the Wii, but that's just my opinion. I don't recommend that you listen to anything I say about Nintendo;) I believe a lot in the DS and any future handheld device from Nintendo, but I don't believe in the long term success of the Wii itself.

EDIT: Oh and btw the only reason I don't have much faith in the Wii is because I feel third parties are always crushed by Nintendo on their own console, whatever the reasons may be, and as such until the Wii is more open to third party success I will keep this position.
 

kathode

Member
NTDOY up to 76.10 over last night. Not too shabby.

I'm up to try the ATVI flip. This should be everyone else's cue to avoid it :lol

Damn, the premarket price is north of $28. Congrats to those who bought this early.
 

gkryhewy

Member
What symbol are people using to trade UBIsoft on US sites? With zecco, "UBI" is some other company last traded in 1999 and valued at 0.00.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
gkrykewy said:
What symbol are people using to trade UBIsoft on US sites? With zecco, "UBI" is some other company last traded in 1999 and valued at 0.00.

I'm not sure you can trade it on the NYSE.
 
fobtastic said:
Anyway, I'm still considering ATVI and even NTDOY. NTDOY is way up there right now, but I can't help but think that they're going to explode with Wii Fit.

As tempting as the sell button is getting, one has to hold on for dear life at this point. It's only going to go through the roof.

Holy crap at ATVI. =(
 

gkryhewy

Member
Cheesemeister said:
As tempting as the sell button is getting, one has to hold on for dear life at this point. It's only going to go through the roof.

I dunno, man, I'm very seriously considering selling the remainder of my shares and buying back in on the next dip. I think that at the $75-80 price level, WiiFit success and record console sales are already priced in. If this goes to $78.50 or so (equalling its all time high from October), I believe I will sell. I do not see much further price growth in the current broader market condition.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Woot, TTWO up 9.X% as of now. ATVI isn't going up as much as it could right now, I was expecting +20% but markets went down. It's fine tho. I'll have some money soon and I'm hesitating between more CGT shares or more ATVI.
 

gkryhewy

Member
Okay, I'm completely out of NTDOY, and all individual stock holdings actually, at a price of $77.60. I'll buy back in if it falls back to $72/73 levels.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
I'm holding. I bought at the end of July, at 18.27 (I think I mentioned August at 17.50 before, my mistake), and I don't plan to sell for a long long time. If I feel the company is heading in a bad direction, I'll sell, but this is far away. The sad thing is, I need to increase my stake, and currently the price is a bit high for me, and this is happening at a time where I have to be really careful about my investments. The drop today was not just profit taking, but also a drop caused by the overall market. I might buy more this week, as you said it may go down a bit especially with the state of the market. But again, I would keep it all for a long time. When I bought at 18.27, I was aiming 27.50. Now this changes everything, I don't know what to value it anymore, so I'll just keep for a long time. The only thing that really drives me to sell actions is when a company doesn't do good business, not merely on share price. And I don't see why Activision Blizzard couldn't go in the 40s. ATVI alone would have been worth high 20s, more even. They could have been able to take over EA's lead on their own if they would have acquired TTWO, eventually, and if EA continued to screw up.

Take2 went up 8.68% today. I bought those in late August at 15.20, missed my chance to sell in late October, but again I'm holding. I could sell and re-buy in this case, when I bought them I was aiming for somewhere around $22 to $24 before selling. Now with what is happening, I am keeping until again I feel the company isn't on tracks anymore. I am 100% sure they will sell eventually, and probably after some good production and publishing refinements brought by the new management. I might sell and re-buy if I feel it can be worth it, but chances are I'll just hold onto what I have, and increase on a big dip like the one they just had.

BTW Ubisoft went up again, another all-time high for them, + 5.28 % to 62.65€. I'm not buying tho, too expensive for me. Altho I think they too will be looked at by Time Warner/Disney/News. Corp/Viacom, etc.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
I hope I'm not the origin of that rumor:lol You never know, maybe some analysts are reading NeoGAF;)

I'm up around +36.3% total on ATVI. But yeah I'm keeping.

The one stock I own and am extremely unsure of is IMMR. CGT is hurting me too, but I have really high confidence in them, and I really can't explain why they would be low other than the CAD being high or the market dragging them down. It's very long term anyway.

But IMMR, even tho I believe that haptics will continue to grow in importance, I'm not sure I have a lot of faith in them. I'll wait till next fiscal results to get a better idea.

EDIT: BTW what's great right now is that ATVI and TTWO are both going up while the stock market is going down, so when there will be a Nasdaq/Dow/S&P rally, they should go higher.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
What the... we have a major rally and ATVI goes down a few %:p

Oh well, TTWO up, and CGT is currently up 8%:)
 

kathode

Member
Go go Gamestop! GME got added to the S&P500 and got a nice little bump along with some target price increases. Fund managers seek to buy into stocks as soon as they hit the major indexes to make sure they have full coverage, so this is fantastic news. Been a great week of trading!

AAPL hit a new all-time high today, it would appear. Closed very close to it at least.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
I have been keeping VIP (Vimpel-Communications, Russian telecom company) on watch for some time but sadly it's too late. They are in talks to acquire Golden Telecom and the share's price has gove from around 33 to close to 39 in 5 days. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VIP

Anyway I have nothing new on my watch list. INTC is interesting, but I have no funds, and additional funds will probably go to ATVI.
 

argon

Member
Go go Gamestop! GME got added to the S&P500 and got a nice little bump along with some target price increases. Fund managers seek to buy into stocks as soon as they hit the major indexes to make sure they have full coverage, so this is fantastic news. Been a great week of trading!

I bought some Gamestop DEC 60 and JAN 55 puts today. Let's see if I fare better than Mr Walrus did with his 80$ RIMM puts a couple months ago... I just can't get over the feeling that the market will resume last month's correction after the Fed drops interest rates.
 

SephCast

Brotherhood of Shipley's
So I started a portfolio in July with Apple, Take Two, and Activision:

n1909144_40648915_2867.jpg


Yeah, I'm up a good 900 dollars.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
I'm up over 35% on ATVI, but IMMR is hurting me.

TTWO, I could have made good money when they reached over 20 a few weeks ago (if I recall right), but I'm confident in them.

Damn IMMR tho, they get hit real hard whenever the markets go down. Yesterday they dropped almost 8%. Bought them at the wrong time, totally.

CGT is alright, I haven't lose anything on them and it's very long term anyway. Major faith in them.

STP, SPWR, FSLR,
wow. Too bad I'm not holding any. But I don't know much about that sector. Interesting to keep an eye on tho, unlike corn or such alternative fuels, solar isn't going to be suddenly shunned for ever, it's not an energy source that could be doubted or rebuked in the end. It's just a question of efficiency, and efficiency will surely continue to speed up. Plus it's an energy source available to all, so it's very independent and not relying on crops and such.
 

gkryhewy

Member
Ether_Snake said:

STP, SPWR, FSLR,
wow. Too bad I'm not holding any. But I don't know much about that sector. Interesting to keep an eye on tho, unlike corn or such alternative fuels, solar isn't going to be suddenly shunned for ever, it's not an energy source that could be doubted or rebuked in the end. It's just a question of efficiency, and efficiency will surely continue to speed up. Plus it's an energy source available to all, so it's very independent and not relying on crops and such.

Bought LDK at 47, sold at 37, went to ~25, and now it's at ~60. Chinese solar is not for the meek!
 

gkryhewy

Member
NTDOY is back below $72 this morning (glad I cashed out at $77.60), and in the process of evaluating whether I should get back in, I found this Reuters article. Nothing new, but interesting.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?...ArticlePage3 said:
Nintendo shares stall after bull-run, Xmas eyed
By Kiyoshi Takenaka

TOKYO (Reuters) - Shares in videogame maker Nintendo (7974.OS: Quote, NEWS , Research) have taken a breather in recent weeks from their extended bull run and analysts say clear direction for the stock is unlikely to emerge until holiday sales data come in.

Nintendo shares surged more than five-fold in the past two years through October on white-hot demand for its DS handheld player and Wii console, making the creator of such game characters as Mario and Zelda Japan's third-most valuable company.

But they have lost 8 percent since November, underperforming the Nikkei average <.N225>, which fell 5 percent.

"No fundamentals have changed. Nintendo has still got strong earnings momentum," said Mitsushige Akino, chief fund manager at Ichiyoshi Investment Management.

"The difference is market participants have now realized Nintendo's potential, and it is pretty much factored in the share price. Back in 2005, no one could image Nintendo being where it is now."

Nintendo's Wii had been considered an "also-ran" in the three-way console race against Sony Corp' (6758.T: Quote, NEWS , Research) PlayStation 3 and Microsoft Corp's (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile , Research) Xbox 360.

But the machine, which features a motion-sensing controller that allows gamers direct onscreen plays by swinging it like a racket or sword, has far outsold the PS3 since their launches a year ago, unseating Sony as unrivalled king of the game industry.

Nintendo sold 13.2 million units of the Wii as of the end of September, compared with 5.6 million units of the PS3.

However, there were signs of PS3 sales picking up in recent months in Japan as Sony cut the console price and launched a new version.

Data from research firm Media Create showed domestic sales of the PS3 surpassed the Wii for the first time in the week ending November 11, shaking investor confidence in Nintendo, although the Wii regained the top spot two weeks later.

"People's perception of the PS3 is improving from an underdog to something better, and part of the money that used to flow into Nintendo shares is now going to the Sony stock," said Yoshihisa Okamoto, fund manager at Mizuho Asset Management.

"It would be difficult for Nintendo shares to rise much further from here without such factors as healthy consumer spending in the United States and strong sales of Nintendo products in the Christmas season."

SOFTWARE DEFECTION

It will be sometime before comprehensive sales data for the year-end shopping season becomes available, but chances are Nintendo's Wii is likely to hold onto its top spot in December as well as in this console cycle, analysts said.

"The PS3 has been doing better recently. But that's partly because there are not enough Wii machines to go around in the United States and Europe," Rakuten Securities analyst Yasuo Imanaka.

"In December, Nintendo launched 'Wii Fit', and the company is traditionally strong in gift-giving season for children."

The Kyoto-based company started selling "Wii Fit" home fitness game in Japan on December 1, breathing fresh life into Wii demand.

The game features a pressure-sensing mat, which looks like a bathroom scale and can sense when a person moves and leans, enabling players to "head" virtual soccer balls and experience ski jumping on a TV screen.

In a longer term, growing support from third-party software developers are expected to help the Wii lure in new users, analysts said.

In a major coup, Nintendo said in October software publisher Capcom Co Ltd (9697.T: Quote, NEWS , Research) would develop the latest version of its blockbuster "Monster Hunter" action game for the Wii.

The game had previously been developed for Sony's consoles and the switch to Nintendo has fed speculation that support for the PlayStation franchise may be slipping.

Underlining high expectations for the Wii, analysts on average forecast a 21 percent rise in Nintendo's operating profit for the year starting April 2008, beating an estimated 12 percent gain for Sony, according to Reuters Estimates.

($1=110.82 Yen)

(Editing by Elizabeth Fullerton)
 

kathode

Member
I still think it's just natural profit-taking on NTDOY. People run it up and cash out. I still think I'll make more money just hanging on, rolling with the occasional dip, and waiting for the long-term tax rate (think I bought in January of this year, IIRC. Of course I've been pouring more in all year, too). I don't see any reason to believe they won't sell out anything they make over the holiday, and run the price up again with a blistering January earnings report.
 

gkryhewy

Member
kathode said:
I still think it's just natural profit-taking on NTDOY. People run it up and cash out. I still think I'll make more money just hanging on, rolling with the occasional dip, and waiting for the long-term tax rate (think I bought in January of this year, IIRC. Of course I've been pouring more in all year, too). I don't see any reason to believe they won't sell out anything they make over the holiday, and run the price up again with a blistering January earnings report.

You'd make more taking your profits with everyone else (selling on peaks and buying on dips), but it's very difficult to time. The volatility of this stock is concerning, though. I agree with you about its long term prospects.
 

koam

Member
gkrykewy said:
10% swings on a weekly basis are not normal, but I agree that they should be comfortably above 80 by next earnings.

I meant that it's normal that it stopped rising after the last earnings.
 

argon

Member
Those Gamestop puts are treating me well right now... but I sold the DEC 60s in case the stock jumps on NPD results.

NTDOY is a bargain IMHO, picked up 100 shares today at 71.60.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
A lot of stocks are a bargain right now, the problem is the overall markets. It can bring any lows lower.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Fuzzery said:
I'm curious, how has trading game companies worked out for you ether?

I wanted to buy UBI in early December 2004, but I thought "ah, I know nothing about this stuff, screw it". Two weeks later EA bought 20% of Ubi's shares, and it has been going up since. Since then, I never bought any Ubi stock, but in late summer 2005 I bought my first shares, which were of 100 of ATVI. A few months later, I bought 100 of TTWO, I think in October, I forget. Around a year later or so I sold both at the same time, for no reason really, I was very bad at the whole trading thing (I'm not great at it by any means, but I've learned a lot since). I lost maybe 50$ on ATVI but made up on TTWO's gains, for a total gain of around $500:lol

After that it took almost another year (last July) before I got into this again. I bought my 140 ATVI shares, been up since, and 140 TTWO shares a month later or so. Then the 140 (why that number I don't know) IMMR purchase, which had nothing to do with video games (even tho they make the rumble tech, it wasn't related), and then 200 of CGT.

ATVI and TTWO have been my only winners, but since I don't invest a lot of money I don't win a lot. And I never sold any stock since that initial sell back when I sold for no reason.

On $2558 a investment in ATVI, I have a $1183 gain. On TTWO I only have like, around $280 gain for a $2128 investment. Could have made more a couple of weeks ago but missed my chance. I was originally also aiming for a share price on ATVI of 27.50 before selling, which is coincidentally what Vivendi will buy ATVI's for:p But now I'm holding, and my previous goal of around $22 to $24 on TTWO is uncertain because I think I'll hold till they get bought.

Oh and a couple of months ago in May I think, me and my friends had a special deal from Ubisoft when it was trading at 35% (because we work there), we could buy them at something like -5% I think. I told my friends who asked me if it would go up, because they were told it was at its highest and the Euro was very strong, etc., I said "yeah, 45 euro in 12 months". Turns out it took a couple of weeks:p After 7 months it's almost doubled.

Of course, I bought none. Don't ask why, I don't get it myself.

So really, with VG stocks I only made $500 so far. I'm a long term investor, and I don't invest a lot, but I like the game:)
 
Top Bottom