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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
jamesinclair
Banned
Guys, its Friday. In September. In a year with bad economic news.
If you think this is bad, I hate to remind you that next month is October.
If the GOP doesnt pass the jobs bill, shit will get nasty.
If you think this is bad, I hate to remind you that next month is October.
If the GOP doesnt pass the jobs bill, shit will get nasty.
Xisiqomelir
Member
Rubenov said:
You're only fucked if you're trapped in the mental model of securities only ever going up in price (admittedly, most of the asset management industry is trapped in that very model).
If you accept that securities can move up and down in price, you'll usually find a way to profit.
Useful book: http://www.amazon.com/dp/0471146323/?tag=neogaf0e-20
schroddycat
Member
Xisiqomelir said:
Say if I can only trade in a market where shortselling is prohibited, what ways I can find profit then?
Xisiqomelir
Member
schroddycat said:Say if I can only trade in a market where shortselling is prohibited, what ways I can find profit then?
Europa?
misterchef
Neo Member
schroddycat said:Say if I can only trade in a market where shortselling is prohibited, what ways I can find profit then?
Buy far ITM puts that expire several months from now. They will roughly go up $1 for every $1 the stock falls. Also, by being far ITM, there is much less premium you're paying for the option as compared to an ATM or OTM option.
schroddycat
Member
Xisiqomelir said:
Developing Asian country
schroddycat
Member
misterchef said:
Yeah, I guess put warrants/options is the only way I can think of to make money in bear market. Any good guides/links/books on options trading? I've had bad experience before in trading options and would have to think twice even for put options in this climate.
Large Professor
Member
Put options are pretty expensive now because of the volatility. I would rather sell them than buy them.
So looking to buy some Nokia tomorrow when the markets open and was curious of other's views on Nokia. Buying it primarily as a Dividend play. With a 9.48% dividend yield, I did the calculations and after a little over 2 and a half years, the income from dividends will be total more than my inital investment. With that level of Dividend, I plan on holding the stock upwards of 4-5 years if possible. I know Nokia has it's issues and problems, but I genuinely believe the N9 design coupled with Windows will be a moderate success. If it's a moderate to very sucessful partnership, the stock could become a growth stock again. At worst the MS/Nokia partnership is a bust a couple years from now, the stock drops by another 50%, but I'll still be up since the dividend return will cover my initial investment after 2 and a half years. I see much more upside potential and very little downside risk. Opinions?
bender_84 said:
That's assuming the dividend won't be cut in the near future. Last year's EPS were 46 cents, versus a 48 cents dividend, which works out to an unsustainable payout ratio of 110% of annual profit. They might be able to maintain it until then, but eventually they'll have to either grow their profits significantly or cut the dividend.
There may be value in Nokia, but don't base such a long term investment solely on its unsafe dividend.
RevoDS said:
Thanks for the feedback sfedai0 and Revo, I'll definitely take into account that the dividend isn't really safe in a 3-4 year timeline(or even 2 years), for sure. One thing I do like about Nokia is that they do have a pretty large amount of cash and their patent library is quite an asset financially and from what I've looked through on their details information about the company, relatively low debt. So I'm more or less banking on those aspects holding the company over(and keeping their dividend output high) until their partnership with MS actually produces something. I tend to stick to market and industry where I know a lot about the products or services that the companies make or offer and I've always thought that Nokia hardware-wise is a great company with great products.....it's just their software wasn't up to snuff and they took entirely to long to do something about it.
It's definitely somewhat of a risk and taking a bet that Nokia comes back and is influential in the market
SlipperySlope
Banned
I see Nokia as a large risk. Their dividend will likely get cut in the very near future.
Their future potential is risky too.
But if you feel confident in their direction, then you're free to put in some money.
To be honest I would feel wary investing in any cell phone company, Apple included. Every cell phone company out there right now is extremely volatile in terms of profits and market share. Things flip on a dime right now.
Recently it's all Apple. Then it's Apple/Android. Next? Who knows.
Their future potential is risky too.
But if you feel confident in their direction, then you're free to put in some money.
To be honest I would feel wary investing in any cell phone company, Apple included. Every cell phone company out there right now is extremely volatile in terms of profits and market share. Things flip on a dime right now.
Recently it's all Apple. Then it's Apple/Android. Next? Who knows.
SlipperySlope said:
Still blows my mind that apple is nearly a 0.5 Trillion USD company. Are they going to start paying dividends soon? I just don't see them growing any more. Everyone and their mother is releasing tablets and phones, so to continue to grow they not only need to maintain their current marketshare in phone and tablets, but they also have to maintain the profit margins and grow into new markets. Seems outlandish to me - holding against DROID and also annihilating Windows 8, especially without Job's vision. Microsoft may be a smaller company but I suspect they have a larger pool of experienced software developers. Then again I thought Apple's size was accurate back when their stock was $100 so what do I know.
Apple is pretty unique because they've managed to create a successful OS paired with excellent hardware, which is all proprietary. And Apple is known for much more than their phones. They are also best of breed, with tons of liquidity with which to either be used for acquisitions or dividends, if stockholders start clamoring.
SlipperySlope said:
Good advice too. So another question, right now I'm looking at more dividend heavy stocks as a safer bet because I honestly have no clue which way the market will go over 2012 and to some extent 2013. Lot's of issues to be worked out in here in the US, Europe, China, so many others that trying to pick stocks for growth seems like a bad idea.
Here's a couple other stocks I've looked into for dividends....Intel and BP
Edit... Also looking at Altria Group Inc. In fact the more I read into the stock, the more I like it. Long term divident payout and continuing to increase in dividend growth.
Edit 2: While I don't really like AT&T's service, they're dividend payout is hard to ignore as well.
bender_84 said:
Yeah, cigarette companies pay mad dividends. Look at Altria's history. Periods of insane dividends, like 5% per quarter. Problem is it's a cigarette company. I don't think I could buy that. I mean I cringe at the self righteous green movement people that often do more harm to the environment than good, but I think I would sell on emotion at some point. And I think a lot of people are like me and that's why the dividends are so high.
teh_pwn said:
Apple will only grow these next couple years. They are still considered undervalued from a P/E standpoint. With them just breaking in to emerging markets, the biggest being China and I heard they are looking in to getting a piece of the subscription streaming pie, instead of their piece meal offerings they currently feature. They have cloud and Apple TV as well.
Theres been rumors that they may go as far as to offer their own television set, though I seriously doubt they would go all in as Apple like refreshing their products yearly, and I just dont see them releasing a new set every year, like they do with the iPhone and iPad.
And of course, dividends would be something they could offer, but shareholders seem pretty content for now.
greyshark said:
I might be a bit confused here. I thought the dividend pays you for every share you own. So say you have 1,000 shares of a company and that company pays a quarterly dividend of .25 a share. You recieve $250 every quarter from dividends from the 1,000 shares you own. So if Nokia pays a quarterly dividend of 53 cents a share and I buy a 1,000 shares tomorrow at $6 a share which would come to a $6,000 investment, wouldn't the quarterly dividend payout be $530? So after 3 years of dividends at that current rate, I would have made $6,360 from dividends. If I'm doing the math here wrong or am confused about dividend payouts, I'd really like someone to clarify.
greyshark
Member
bender_84 said:
It looks to me that Nokia only pays out dividends once per year, not quarterly like most companies I've looked at. Here's their payout history:http://investors.nokia.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=107224&p=irol-dividendhistory
Other companies like Coke for example will pay out quarterly, and you'll see it show up that way in their payment history:http://ir.thecoca-colacompany.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=94566&p=irol-dividends
bender_84 said:
I was considering it too since its paying out a 4-5% dividend at current stock prices.
Here is my analysis, they have a net cash of $6.4 billion and the stock as at the lowest its been at in years, although that is not a good enough reason to buy.
Something that Apple and Android companies don't have is emerging market penetration, although there are a few small players in the Chinese market with Android smartphones they are irrelevant to our stock market for now and don't pose much of a concern IMO at the moment. If Nokia brings WinMo8 to a large portion of new users who may be first time smartphone users then they can build a loyal customer base easily. Not to mention Nokia sells many low price phones, their average price per phone was 56 euros last year. If Nokia gets "lite" versions of WinMo8 running on their low tier smartphones which should be gateway phones to their higher end I can see much potential in Asia.
Microsoft brings to the table a very competent smartphone OS, I've personally used iOS, Android, and WinMo7 and honestly I think WinMo7 if given a chance by many folks out there would seriously consider it.
This is all hope and potential but I am one to believe that Nokia who was once a juggernaut in the cellphone space can still be one as it has made radical changes already to become competitive unlike Blackberry which seems to be in a bit of a slow transition.
I would like to depend on the dividend but I feel they may cut it too. I don't see too much downside to the stock price but I am looking at a very long hold here, probably a few years but that will depend on what moves they make this coming year, I'll say it should be interesting I hope and I'm gonna take the gamble with a somewhat decent sized position.
sfedai0 said:
Why not? The current rate of change in the television market is so high that almost every company that produces TVs comes out with a new one every year. Sure, the new features and benefits included with yearly-refreshed TVs aren't exactly huge innovations, but it's not like Apple's refreshes have always been big advancements, either.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
The way things are going, it looks like I'll lose everything I had put years ago in STP after all.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Some monthly, even.bender_84 said:
Speaking of dividends, is there a quicker way to see how they've added up over time? Sites like Google or Yahoo will list them, but that means if I want to see what things add up to over the last 5 years I probably need to manually sum together 20 numbers, unless they were very constant.
Khalifa Jayy
Banned
Just saw that Apple hit an all-time high. Damn.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Zyzyxxz said:
I bought it when I was still very much a newbie, and held it since. I have around 5000 invested, I'm down 80% on it.
They aren't closing or anything, but solars are getting crushed, who knows what will happen with them.
Ether_Snake said:
But seriously this month is really starting to suck, last week was a nice breather but today is a reminder that shit is going down for real.
I bought into tiny position on HIMX and going long on Nokia, I'm staying away from financials for a while which is where I use to concentrate. I much like what I'm seeing in the celluar phones market and their parts suppliers. Everything I had in August I sold early September and glad I did.
Just a small question about stocks to see if im understanding it correctly. So lets give an example. Apple closed yesterday I believe a $410 a share. It closed today at $413 a share. if I bought 10,000 shares yesterday($400kish) and sold them today, I would get a 30,000 profit? is that how it works?
Prologue said:
LOL, I suppose in the most basic sense. So what you got $4.1 million sitting around?
Rubenov said:CNN: "Stocks gain as Greece optimism grows"
LOL.
Talk about a broken record. It would take something really short of a miracle for Greece to pull through. The sooner we get the default over with the better (I know, we'll be talking about Portugal afterwards
haha, seriously? What gain was there today? At best the market looked stagnate today, IMO that reflects that uncertainty about Greece's future which everybody knows will default but what will be the extent of the damage?
MesserWolf
Member
Prologue said:
well if you invested 4.100.000 $ on a single bet yeah the profit would have been 30.000
ergo 0,7% and something
always reason in %
Xisiqomelir
Member
Rubenov said:CNN: "Stocks gain as Greece optimism grows"
LOL.
Talk about a broken record. It would take something really short of a miracle for Greece to pull through. The sooner we get the default over with the better (I know, we'll be talking about Portugal afterwards
Rubenov said:CNN: "Stocks gain as Greece optimism grows"
LOL.
Talk about a broken record. It would take something really short of a miracle for Greece to pull through. The sooner we get the default over with the better (I know, we'll be talking about Portugal afterwards
And at the same time the top story on BBC:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14984087
Ignore the media about the economy. It's bullshit. Which of these sounds more plausible:
1. Put your money in these stocks, you 100x your money in 2 years!!!
2. Average real return on stocks will be 6%.
3. OMG, the world economy is going to collapse because Greece can't afford to pay off their debt with a retirement age of 61 and tons of social programs! The entire world shall collapse because of this. FEAR AND DESPAIR. And also, America can't pay off it's debt while only taxing the rich 15%. The math is IMPOSSIBLE.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
I think today's drop will solidify people's fears, and we'll see a lot of people pulling their money out of the markets for some time, or keeping it out.
schroddycat
Member
Guys, is it the right time to go long on BAC or I should wait longer, maybe till it drops to $6?
The Power Of Snap
Member
SlipperySlope
Banned
And its free! Free falling!
Damn, put some money in on Tues and now really eating it. I didn't think the stocks would have had this much of a negative reception to the fed announcement. What really get's me is all I see are headlins about "The market plunges on Euro worries and Recession fears". I'm like no shit, nothing's changed since 2 months ago when it plunged then over the same worries. Oh well, the stocks I bough I considered long term and near their 52-week lows. I'll probably just keep buying in increments to back up my loses.