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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
Gonaria said:
Stock prices are based on expected future earnings. Stocks are stupid cheap based on current earning expectations. So one of two things will have to happen here:
1. Earnings will gap down to make the current prices correct.
2. Prices will come up to make sense based on expected earnings.
Whether Europe is the reason or not, this is the ultimate mechanism that drives prices and any macro economic impacts work themselves out through that.
If Q3 earnings don't decline much (or surprise to the upside) we'll rally from here I would think.
There's not going to be a rally. It's a bubble if you can even call it that waiting to pop. The main reason companies are still posting profits isn't from consumers buying things, it's from companies cost cutting and slashing money and gouging people every which way they can to keep profits up. Only it's not really profit. Unless we magically get people employed like they were before all this crap happened nothing is going to help. Especially not within a quarters time.
And it's not even one country's problem. It's a global problem this time. It feels like someone behind the scenes wasn't content with making money from each part of the world separately and decided to streamline things to get the world buying together. All It's done is caused everything to become unbalanced.
And it's not even one country's problem. It's a global problem this time. It feels like someone behind the scenes wasn't content with making money from each part of the world separately and decided to streamline things to get the world buying together. All It's done is caused everything to become unbalanced.
Gonaria said:
Tech sector is starting to look like will be weaker. Apple reduced their order for components but this could be a precautionary thing as they have been known to make orders at the last minute.
Texas instruments is expecting slowdown so theres another signal. I'm risking it but I'm in long for Nokia, short to mid for OVTI and HIMX, and may take up positions on CTMC for the dividends.
thirty said:
I think that is the 800 pound gorilla in the room that nobody wants to acknowledge is there so they keep trying to play it off like its imaginary.
What happens when all the unemployed have to stop buying stuff and stick to the extreme basics? America is a consumer driven economy and what's gonna happen when consumers spending power is reduced?
Either we tax the hell out of corporations and rich people or they hire alot more Americans, there's no quick fix but nobody seems to want to make the hard choice. As an investor of course I want my stock to do well but I still want the government to tax companies so they make less money. If there is one thing we as humans can do it is to adapt to our surroundings and if a corporation cannot adapt to changes in economic environments whether they be due to government or financial disasters then they aren't worth investing in. I'd imagine the free market would work itself out if we'd stop babying corporations.
perfectchaos007
Member
Worst quarter since credit crisis. Are we double dipping?
jamesinclair
Banned
Im glad to see some people get it.
Profits have held their course because companies have fired employee after employee.
Costs have gone down faster than revenues have gone down.
But guess what, all those unemployed people arent running out to buy stuff.
And there gets a point where you cant fire people and still exist as a business.
= doooooooooooooooooooooom
Profits have held their course because companies have fired employee after employee.
Costs have gone down faster than revenues have gone down.
But guess what, all those unemployed people arent running out to buy stuff.
And there gets a point where you cant fire people and still exist as a business.
= doooooooooooooooooooooom
Ether_Snake
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We are reaching the point where the rich can no longer put more pressure on the middle class without reducing their own wealth.
I expect the emergence of an inevitable turn around of pro-workforce, pro-middle class policies within the next 12 months.
We're getting to the point where the rich class will be seen as drug addicts by their own dope dealers, who won't want to let their clients OD. Soon enough even politicians are going to have to turn a deaf ear to the rich class.
I expect the emergence of an inevitable turn around of pro-workforce, pro-middle class policies within the next 12 months.
We're getting to the point where the rich class will be seen as drug addicts by their own dope dealers, who won't want to let their clients OD. Soon enough even politicians are going to have to turn a deaf ear to the rich class.
SlipperySlope
Banned
Zyzyxxz said:
AMD also lowered their guidance. The "future predictor" companies are showing signs of trouble, which is not good.
Zyzyxxz said:
That's why I think going long on stocks is a lot more beneficial to the economy than playing the short game. I would be perfectly fine if we increased the short term capital gains rate to like 5 years. Itll give more people an incentive to go long more often on trades and hopefully (though highly doubtful) companies will be less concerned with their quarterly earnings report and more concerned with their long term growth.
Still, even if it doesnt change around short-sighted business practices, I think it would reduce risky short trades and put more money into our coffers - mostly from the investor class, which, i think, would be a good thing.
SlipperySlope said:
I believe AMDs reduction stemmed from ongoing manufacturing issues that have been present for several quarters now. I'm content to wait to see what earnings are like over the next few weeks. Unfortunately we have to start with banks who are virtually guaranteed to have a bad quarter due to the compression in the yield curve that has happened over the last couple months. It'll be an interesting month, I think.
Ether_Snake
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STP down 26% today alone. This thing is going to go bankrupt along with all other solar companies:|
Xisiqomelir
Member
Zyzyxxz said:
Can you explain what you'd consider a re-entry point? I assume there is more to it than PPS.
Disclosure: Still short
Xisiqomelir said:
I don't really know at this point, I'm concentrating my stocks on the tech sector and haven't and don't want to put in the effort for BoA.
There's so much going on with the lawsuits, layoffs, selling off of assets and possibly splitting off Meryll Lynch again.
For a few weeks it was hitting resistance at $7 and once it broke that it's been on a downward trend. I have no idea how far the bottom will go but remember at one point it did hit low $3 range in early 2009, not saying we are headed there but IMO this could be another opportunity at buying a too big to fail stock that is down on fear.
Xisiqomelir
Member
Zyzyxxz said:
BAC probably is TBTF, but surely that's only consolation to bondholders, not shareholders?
Liquidsnake
Banned
Can someone explain to me why when Oil goes up, prices at the pump go up. Oil falls to $77 like its at today, and the prices stay the same at the pump. Is it a simple supply demand thing?
Dutch Gronk
Banned
What do you guys use to watch the stock prices real time? I have always used a program called 'TradeBox' provided by my bank, but since I upgraded to Apple's Lion there is a problem with Java and it doesn't work anymore. Is ProRealTime any good?
jamesinclair
Banned
Liquidsnake said:
Because oil isnt gas.
Example:
Refinery buys oil at $100 on Monday. Sells to stations at $3.50 on Thursday. Station lists gas at $3.55 on Friday. Thats the gas thats being sold all weekend.
If oil falls to $50 on Tuesday....well, it's the $100 oil thats in the pipeline, not the $50 oil. Takes a few days (a week) for the $50 oil thats been made into gas to replace the $100 oil.
Now say the opposite. Oil at $50, spikes to $100. Well, gas station owners know prices will be going up, and so their sales and profits will be going down. So they start adjusting their prices upwards to take advantage now before they miss out later.
Xisiqomelir
Member
Elliot waves, anyone?
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2011/09/elliott-wave-update-30-september.html
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2011/09/elliott-wave-update-30-september.html
woot so glad I got in on OVTI before the iPhone 4S announcement, everybody selling off on rumors of them not providing Apple with new camera sensors is almost all but officially confirmed false.
Might buy in more tomorrow since its still cheap but it did jump $2.37 today FYI.
Might buy in more tomorrow since its still cheap but it did jump $2.37 today FYI.
Bought me some Google to do a quick trade post-earnings... although I love the company so much I might actually keep them :/
Also, for all you long investors out there that weathered the recent storm ending Oct 4, I think the rest of the year should be kinder to us. I recovered almost all my losers and my winners are running away with it.
Also, for all you long investors out there that weathered the recent storm ending Oct 4, I think the rest of the year should be kinder to us. I recovered almost all my losers and my winners are running away with it.
Rubenov said:
I really don't think we are out of the woods yet, and am pretty sure that this is just a momentary increase and we will see stocks drop hard in a couple of months.
China's situation is not good, to put it mildly. And even if Europe recapitalizes its banks and manages to save them once Greece defaults, their economy is likely going to stagnate or contract because there will likely be a serious of austerity measures and cuts in spending to pay for this recapitalization.
As for the US, well, we gotta see if these better than expected economic figures are just due to an abundant inventory or actual consumer demand. I really don't think its consumer demand due to rising costs, especially health care, and zero drop in the unemployment numbers. Well, gas is going down, so that should help a bit, but not that much.
Rubenov said:
Heh September was one heck of a ride there was money to be made but erratic trading behavior was over the top at times.
I think this whole "recession" fears receding is just because we are having a small rally. Means nothing on the grand scale of things and unfortunately its not something we can realize without hindsight once was pass the real storm if its ahead.
Might want to read this article: http://www.forbes.com/fdc/welcome_mjx.shtml
I'm wary about China's growth, with the US trying to pressure currency reevaluation with the Yuan I'm not sure what will happen if it comes to pass that cheap labor is no more in China.
Sold Google After Hours, made a quick 900 bux.
I know what you guys say about not being out of the woods yet; I believe we are years away from that. But for the next 2 - 3 months I think we will be ok, at least I don't think we will have the stock bloodbath that happened between Sep - Oct this year.
I know what you guys say about not being out of the woods yet; I believe we are years away from that. But for the next 2 - 3 months I think we will be ok, at least I don't think we will have the stock bloodbath that happened between Sep - Oct this year.
Zyzyxxz said:
Well, China is going to need to raise the Yuan if they want to continue growing in the near future. Its in our best interest for it to increase and its in the Chinese best increase for the Yuan to increase. Problem is, is whether they do it or not considering that their whole economic model is based on citizen savings funded loans to state favored companies that then export at low low prices.
The problem with that though is that the savings rate is at 3% and the inflation rate is at 6%, so it really does not benefit the people. The major issue is that due to the low Yuan, prices in China are absolutely ridiculous. Well, for us they wouldnt be, but the average Chinese person cannot afford a home, health care, cars, etc.
Housing is definitely the biggest problem though because the govt and business had a pretty sweet deal going where they either build a bunch of real estate developments, or knock down old buildings and build newer, more expensive housing developments. The problem is, is that no one can afford them, and there just are a ton of vacant buildings in China. That bubble is going to burst, and its going to burst bad.
The NY Times had an interesting article about small business loans as well. Apparently small businesses can't get loans from the banks, and have to get them from loan sharks instead
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/14/b...nomy-cools-loan-sharks-come-knocking.html?hpw
China seriously needs to foster domestic consumerism because with the falling demand in Europe and America they are going to get hit real hard. Who knows if they can/will though since it basically means that they have to fundamentally alter their economic system and somehow get around all of the bureaucratic entrenched interest.
As for cheap labor, it will simply move to another country. I think China becoming a more consumer society is better for the US, China, and the world anyways
Cloudy said:Wow @ GOOG AH. I should have bought it at $498 a few weeks back
I bought more AAPL @ $360 last week so I'm not too mad
Uggh I missed out on both! So pissed but at least I got in on OVTI while it was cheap so I'm just waiting to double my money.
Is it too late to get in on AAPL guys? I mean its been haning around the low $400 for a couple of days and if it goes anywhere near its $500 price targets then thats it could be a quick 20%.
Ether_Snake
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Austerity measures will just make things worst. So since more austerity cuts are inevitably on the way, it is 100% guaranteed that the situation will worsen. We will see unemployment remain at the current level at least, and in fact probably rise a bit more.
Until you see governments actually going forward with regulation and pro-worker/middle class policies, it is categorically certain that the economy will not improve. This certainly won't happen in 2011, and not until we hit the bottom of the barrel.
The best case scenario other than the above is complete stagnation.
Until you see governments actually going forward with regulation and pro-worker/middle class policies, it is categorically certain that the economy will not improve. This certainly won't happen in 2011, and not until we hit the bottom of the barrel.
The best case scenario other than the above is complete stagnation.
Zyzyxxz said:
It is not too late if you have a 1-year target in mind. Before earnings play, I don't know if it will be a good idea.
It's obvious Apple will smash estimates, but Apple stock has traditionally rallied up to earnings (like it did today), and then it sells off right afterwards and into the next day. Of course we won't know if it will happen that way again, but given how high it has climbed the past few days I would wait post earnings to jump in.
Ether_Snake said:
I don't think I would prefer stagnation over a recession. Sure, a recession would suck, but at least there is a decent chance for significant change to come out of that. Plus, you'd actually make some money in the market if you bought in while it was real low. Stagnation? Bleh, just another lost decade or two with very little chance of making money in the market
Ether_Snake
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A recession could be followed by stagnation.
Recession doesn't imply markets jumping upward afterwards.
Experts expect decades of slow growth
Add to this the fact that oil prices will be a chokehold on the recovery, more than ever.
We are not out of the woodwork.
Recession doesn't imply markets jumping upward afterwards.
Experts expect decades of slow growth
Add to this the fact that oil prices will be a chokehold on the recovery, more than ever.
We are not out of the woodwork.
RumblingRosco
Member
Anabuhabkuss said:Wow, nice. Did not know this thread existed and am impressed to see many here involved in market discussions. I, myself, am an investment adviser.
Pfft, they say gamers are lazy and dumb...
Well, not everyone in Off-topic is a gamer haha. I am actually, but not everyone!
Also, speaking of gaming investments, go COOL go.
I'm interest to hear what Cook says on the conference call. If this was due to supply constraints or something then I think it's a good time to get in. Otherwise...I dunno.
On the other hand I'm happy with Intel's report. Hopefully this can finally let it punch through the ceiling it's had recently. I wish I had bought more at ~19 with a 4.5% yield =/
On the other hand I'm happy with Intel's report. Hopefully this can finally let it punch through the ceiling it's had recently. I wish I had bought more at ~19 with a 4.5% yield =/
Ether_Snake
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Soka said:
I wish I had a stock that performed over 100%
My best investments have always been gaming stocks. I'm up 25% on TTWO and 45% on ERTS.
Sony and Apple just fucked me over on OVTI.
Now not sure if I should dump it for AAPL stock.
Short story: OVTI made the camera sensor for the iPhone4 and was rumored to have lost the contract due to a Sony CEO leak, the stock jumped back up when Apple revealed it was a F2.4 lens and was very similar to the one OVTI was developing.
Now we still don't know if OVTI is acting as a co-supplier since Apple made have been afraid of camera shortages from a relatively small company (in terms of market cap) but the company has good fundamentals and currently has hands in cameras for other major cellphone makers while dipping their hands into camera sensors for non cellphone applications.
Dam now I am regretting now setting a loss limit, should have sold when I was up 25% but I still think stock has potential to return at least 50% in the longterm if now double.
Now not sure if I should dump it for AAPL stock.
Short story: OVTI made the camera sensor for the iPhone4 and was rumored to have lost the contract due to a Sony CEO leak, the stock jumped back up when Apple revealed it was a F2.4 lens and was very similar to the one OVTI was developing.
Now we still don't know if OVTI is acting as a co-supplier since Apple made have been afraid of camera shortages from a relatively small company (in terms of market cap) but the company has good fundamentals and currently has hands in cameras for other major cellphone makers while dipping their hands into camera sensors for non cellphone applications.
Dam now I am regretting now setting a loss limit, should have sold when I was up 25% but I still think stock has potential to return at least 50% in the longterm if now double.
Rubenov said:
The thing I don't want to sell off for a few reasons:
No confirmation is loss of iPhone4S contract they can still be co-supplying with Sony since some companies do that with high volumne products.
iPhone 4 will continue to sell and orders from Apple for replacement parts won't stop in near to mid future for now.
My average price paid was $14.22 so below their 50 and 200 day MA.