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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

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Mr.Mike

Member
Low oil is probably great for most economies and global growth in general. Although it might suck for economies dependent on oil (hopefully this pushes diversification on Canada's economy a bit more)

Speculation is that this is an attempt on Saudi Arabia's part to get new American shale producers to go bankrupt. So that might happen and prices will go back up, or perhaps the US government will bail out these shale oil producers, essentially subsidizing super cheap oil prices for a while.

EDIT: Actually, even if some oil companies do go bankrupt, someone else will just buy up the wells and work them instead.
 
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Ether_Snake

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Thank god for falling Canadian dollar though, I can't move money into my US account anymore because of the hit I'd take, but most of my cash is already in it, so even some loser stocks turn up even once converted back to CAD.
 
L

LegoDad

Member
Mr.Mike said:
Low oil is probably great for most economies and global growth in general. Although it might suck for economies dependent on oil (hopefully this pushes diversification on Canada's economy a bit more)

Speculation is that this is an attempt on Saudi Arabia's part to get new American shale producers to go bankrupt. So that might happen and prices will go back up, or perhaps the US government will bail out these shale oil producers, essentially subsidizing super cheap oil prices for a while.

EDIT: Actually, even if some oil companies do go bankrupt, someone else will just buy up the wells and work them instead.
Click to expand...

If you ever noticed, if Oil goes up the stock market goes up 70% of the time, If oil goes down, the stock market goes down. Been like this since 1985 or so. Even though everyone says it's good for the economy to have low oil prices, I believe the opposite.
 
M

Mr.Mike

Member
caliblue15 said:
If you ever noticed, if Oil goes up the stock market goes up 70% of the time, If oil goes down, the stock market goes down. Been like this since 1985 or so. Even though everyone says it's good for the economy to have low oil prices, I believe the opposite.
Click to expand...

Hmm. IDK, it might have a short term effect like that, but perhaps a long term positive effect. I'm nowhere near qualified enough to try to do that analysis though.
 
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Ether_Snake

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Well so many economies rely on high oil prices. It's also used as an indicator of demand, so it can induce pessimism when going down.

I also think a lot of the shale exploration was bullshit, it's one thing to say you have gas, it's another to pump it all out without a hitch. I think there was excessive speculation, so the sudden downturn resulting from future excessive supply was probably overblown; there would have never been such high supply to begin with.

Edit: BTW, I'm going to be selling CAE in early January to lock in gains, after all these years. I need to reinvest it, and I'm thinking ETF, but I can't see anything except adding to my VFV (S&P) which I want to bring up. Anyway my question is; do you think it's a good idea to not reinvest it all in one shot, and maybe just put in 20% of it a month? This way I would spread the reinvestment over five months rather than all in on one go. CAE currently represents 20% of my portfolio. Reinvesting it all in one shot would weight my VFV investment significantly on early Jan. If it's a bottom, great, but I don't want to play that game. Then again spreading the investment over a few months can also make me miss out on gains.
 
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Ether_Snake

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Reg said:
What's everybody's opinion on Google? It seems to have pulled back quite a bit and it's down for the year.
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Like Amazon. They are big targets for regulations, and I think in Google's case it seems that they are losing ground on the advertising revenue to FB.

I said before, I wonder if Amazon and Google would merge.
 
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Ether_Snake

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Holyshit, OVA :( How I wish I had bought some in october when I spotted them. Up 200% since:(
 
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Ether_Snake

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CrankyJay said:
Good ol' biotech sector...

Put NVAX on your watchlist.
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Yeah but I don't understand most of those companies, except fertilization is the future! Every woman and a lot of men will resort to it to have planned pregnancies at a later age, it's going to be huge.
 
L

LegoDad

Member
Ether_Snake said:
Well so many economies rely on high oil prices. It's also used as an indicator of demand, so it can induce pessimism when going down.

I also think a lot of the shale exploration was bullshit, it's one thing to say you have gas, it's another to pump it all out without a hitch. I think there was excessive speculation, so the sudden downturn resulting from future excessive supply was probably overblown; there would have never been such high supply to begin with.

Edit: BTW, I'm going to be selling CAE in early January to lock in gains, after all these years. I need to reinvest it, and I'm thinking ETF, but I can't see anything except adding to my VFV (S&P) which I want to bring up. Anyway my question is; do you think it's a good idea to not reinvest it all in one shot, and maybe just put in 20% of it a month? This way I would spread the reinvestment over five months rather than all in on one go. CAE currently represents 20% of my portfolio. Reinvesting it all in one shot would weight my VFV investment significantly on early Jan. If it's a bottom, great, but I don't want to play that game. Then again spreading the investment over a few months can also make me miss out on gains.
Click to expand...

Remember Gas and Oil are completely different in the Industry. There is an overabundance of Gas at the moment and a cold winter could help industry offset the Oil.
 
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Ether_Snake

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Still moving more of my investments to the S&P (VFV). Sold CAE today after holding it for so many years, in the end its growth hasn't outpaced the S&P so no big deal, unless they were to get bought out but I think if that was to happen it would have already.

I transferred more from my CAD account to USD, I think the CAD will eventually fall to the high 70s.

So now I got some 3D printing stocks I'm stuck with for the long term, SCTY, DIS, and VFV. I'll keep moving more and more to VFV down the road.
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
A lot of the ETFs have a big energy pie right?

Will oil under 50 blow them up if they put all their eggs into the shale bucket and it goes bust?
 
P

percephone

Neo Member
jamesinclair said:
A lot of the ETFs have a big energy pie right?

Will oil under 50 blow them up if they put all their eggs into the shale bucket and it goes bust?
Click to expand...

Most funds are diversified that one sectors tanking does not affect it much. Low cost of energy might raise profit on other sectors like manufacturings and logistics.

Funds that track S&P 500 have 8.40% in the energy sector. Total Stock market Index is 7.5%
 
M

Mr.Mike

Member
Is there anything other than oil causing prices to drop like this?

Even airlines are dropping, which is just a silly response to falling oil prices.
 
N

Nintendad

Member
I just got an inheritance and was looking to getting into investing money or finding the best way to turn this money into a lot more.

Any tips on how to get started or where to start with stock market or investments?
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
Nintendad said:
I just got an inheritance and was looking to getting into investing money or finding the best way to turn this money into a lot more.

Any tips on how to get started or where to start with stock market or investments?
Click to expand...
Do you want to be hands on or hands off with your investing? Long term or short term? How much risk can you stomach?
 
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Ether_Snake

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Anyone else thinks the Rockefellers knew oil was going to tank? It was in late September that it was announced that they were divesting themselves of all their oil investments/assets. That was a once-in-a-century move.

Edit: ATVI has been falling a lot.
 
A

alejob

Member
Things are getting a little jumpy. I'm thinking of getting into good dividend paying stocks with my IRA. But should I stay in cash a little longer?
 
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Ether_Snake

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Anyone thinking of buying gold? There is a huge mess in Europe and with the Euro that would warrant it. The CAD is likely to continue to sink, probably in the high 0.70s.

At the same time, if QE works in bringing unemployment down among other things, it could favor the Euro like it did for the USD, but I guess it will take far longer to bring confidence to the Euro because of the various political issues with the EU itself. The US wasn't on the brink of splitting up. I doubt QE will work, I think Greece will eventually leave the EU when the ECB fails to work things out, and then once Greece is out you have a new low valued currency and the beginning of a lot of interest in other countries or regions to split, such as Catalonia, etc. All the pieces are in place.
 
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Ether_Snake

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And right when my indicators were telling me to buy ATVI but I didn't, here it goes up 8% today.
 
T

TCRS

Banned
I have finally decided to do something about stocks and shit instead of just dreaming how I'm going to make big money. I downloaded Trading212 which gives you a demo-account and €10000 to play around with. yesterday I made €800, today I lost €700.

I have no idea what I'm doing lol.

I just buy according to the 'sentiment' tab which tells you what people are doing right now. obviously there is no trading today so today the market is just being simulated. I don't even have the fundamentals down but I thought I'll learn by doing because I just can't be bothered going through dry theory without actually doing something. so in that sense this demo-account is perfect. it will probably be months before I spend actual money. not before I know what I'm doing.
 
C

CrankyJay

Banned
TCRS said:
I have finally decided to do something about stocks and shit instead of just dreaming how I'm going to make big money. I downloaded Trading212 which gives you a demo-account and €10000 to play around with. yesterday I made €800, today I lost €700.

I have no idea what I'm doing lol.

I just buy according to the 'sentiment' tab which tells you what people are doing right now. obviously there is no trading today so today the market is just being simulated. I don't even have the fundamentals down but I thought I'll learn by doing because I just can't be bothered going through dry theory without actually doing something. so in that sense this demo-account is perfect. it will probably be months before I spend actual money. not before I know what I'm doing.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't buy on sentiment...by the time you buy in most of the run-up has already occurred. You need to recognize when a stock is unfairly sold off due to unfounded fear. If a company loses a substantial percentage (10%+) and there isn't any news tied to it that changes the fundamentals of the company, then you can look at them and consider buying for the rebound.

You never want to "chase" a stock after a run-up.
 
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Ether_Snake

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The Canadian dollar is in a freefall. I'm switching from VFV (S&P etf) to VOOG tomorrow, moving it all to my US TFSA account. I might leave Canada next year and I'd prefer to be holding USDs.
 
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Ether_Snake

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Edit: whatever, meaningless comments erased

My prediction for the 21st century, Apple and Samsung merge, Google and Amazon merge.
 
R

road house

Member
Is anyone using the Robinhood Trading App, I just got my invite today after months of forgetting about it. Any Drawbacks of using it? Newbie Trader
 
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Ether_Snake

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My buy-signal is telling me to buy GS at the current price, for which I would expect to get an 8-9% return by selling at 195 (in less than two months more or less). Kind of feel like doing it.

I bought GOOG, AAPL, and HOG recently. HOG is a short-term play, expecting around 8% within a month or two at most, currently up 3.5% after a week.

(Yes I do stock picking with a small part of my portfolio)
 
N

nubbe

Member
Microsoft is doing all the right moves on the enterprise side since Ballmer left

might be a good long term investment
No wonder they are struggling at the moment since it will take a year or two before their new direction pays off

Azure is great
Windows 10 looks great
Office 365 offers good value
Windows Phone offers great value, need more social critical app support

Bing still sucks
Xbone, sell the bottomless shithole
 
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