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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Ether_Snake

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Word is the BoC (Canada!) will lower it's interest rate again, in March, to 0.5. Right in time for spring to keep fueling the bubble. Watch the CAD tank.

edit: I decided to hold DIS until they merge with AAPL, lol.
 

RevoDS

Junior Member
I need recommendation on books on options writing.

The best reference on options is by far Options as a Strategic Investment by Lawrence G. MacMillan.

It's costly, it's not the easiest book on Earth (although everything is explained quite well, there are some extremely advanced concepts covered along with the basics) and it's not solely focused on writing but instead covers nearly all possible options strategies.

But it's the most comprehensive and accurate book on the subject, second to none. Anything you might need, will be in there and there are numerous examples that make clear what exactly you're getting into and how to estimate what your potential risk and reward are for a particular strategy.
 

vpance

Member
Solars seem due for a run. Got in before the pop last week, and in wait and see mode.

Word is the BoC (Canada!) will lower it's interest rate again, in March, to 0.5. Right in time for spring to keep fueling the bubble. Watch the CAD tank.

So soon? Loving it though. Any gains now on US stocks are like super nitro boosted.
 

nubbe

Member
Why is Oil still worth money?

Oil fell as U.S. crude stockpiles and output advanced to the highest level in more than three decades, a sign that a global supply glut will linger.

Crude supplies rose 4.87 million barrels to 417.9 million last week, the most in records compiled since August 1982 by the Energy Information Administration. Inventories were last above 400 million barrels in 1931, monthly data show. Crude output increased 49,000 barrels a day to 9.23 million, the highest level in weekly estimates that started in January 1983.
 

Ether_Snake

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Is investopedia still the go to site to brush up on the basics on stock purchasing and evaluating in general?

It's good, the explanatory videos are great.

Why is Oil still worth money?

I'd be curious to see if the supplies numbers are accurate, or if we have a case similar to the price fixing for other commodities. I find it highly suspicious that all of a sudden supplies magically increased drastically, when all of this would have been foreseeable and hence prices should have been lowering gradually. It's as if no one knew the US was going to produce more oil.

So my guess is the supposed supply level is significantly based on speculation of future output, one that is way overblown.
 

LevelNth

Banned
Word is the BoC (Canada!) will lower it's interest rate again, in March, to 0.5. Right in time for spring to keep fueling the bubble. Watch the CAD tank.
Canada is really getting in a real tough spot, and when they lower again (a certainty) borrowing is again going to enter effectively 'free' levels. Unfettered foreign investment in real estate in this country is what's fueling the bubble (esp. in TO and Van), and it's going to get way, way worse.

I don't see a recovery angle anytime soon for either rates or the dollar. If you're a young person looking to buy in the next three years in Canada, enjoy!!

PS- I think the overnight will be 0.25 by the end of the year.
 

Ether_Snake

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I held GS for a short while, sold at 182 I think. I should have held longer but whatever. Most banks were down a good chunk recently, but they recovered.

In other news TSLA is down. My buy signal is at 180 or so. I stull think they are overvalued, but they are taking the Bezos approach so there's strong upside potential over the long term. My guess is they will continue to experience setbacks on the car front due to increasing competition, so things like home batteries and such are probably not going to offset that for quite some time.

So I'm not buying, currently not picking any particular company, just adding to my ETFs.
 

vpance

Member
Canada is really getting in a real tough spot, and when they lower again (a certainty) borrowing is again going to enter effectively 'free' levels. Unfettered foreign investment in real estate in this country is what's fueling the bubble (esp. in TO and Van), and it's going to get way, way worse.

I don't see a recovery angle anytime soon for either rates or the dollar. If you're a young person looking to buy in the next three years in Canada, enjoy!!

PS- I think the overnight will be 0.25 by the end of the year.

The wealthy foreign investors have been at it for a while now. First the HK Chinese and now mainland. Young people would be better off renting or living at home and dumping whatever savings they have into equities, I guess.
 

Ether_Snake

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Foreign buyers being responsible for the bubble is a myth, show me credible numbers. It's irresponsible average joes buying en masse because of the media hype, lack of financial litteracy, and their ego.

BTW, CAT is at an interesting price. Could go lower if oil goes back down, but it is high on my list in terms of potential short-term returns, something like 15% in maybe two months. I'm still not quite interested in stock picking right now, but I see nothing else that may have gone undervalued enough recently.
 

percephone

Neo Member
The best reference on options is by far Options as a Strategic Investment by Lawrence G. MacMillan.

It's costly, it's not the easiest book on Earth (although everything is explained quite well, there are some extremely advanced concepts covered along with the basics) and it's not solely focused on writing but instead covers nearly all possible options strategies.

But it's the most comprehensive and accurate book on the subject, second to none. Anything you might need, will be in there and there are numerous examples that make clear what exactly you're getting into and how to estimate what your potential risk and reward are for a particular strategy.

Thanks! I got it today and it's a pretty big book but it seems to have what i wanted and more.
 

alejob

Member
anyone here owns or is thinking about owning BAC or F stock?

If the conditions are right I am thinking about buying BAC, F and GE next week.

I've owned BAC for a while now. I've sold and rebought a couple of times. At $16.61 it a place where if you are going long I would say to buy. But really if it has a good run up I will sell and if goes down I might buy some more. I believe many analyst have a buy rating on it now.
 

rokkerkory

Member
What do you guys think of buying Yamana Gold?

015-2017 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS

Portfolio with stable production, cost and cash flow base supports focus returning to growth in mineral reserves and mineral resources, and production.
2015 total expected production:
9% increase in gold only production to 1.30 million ounces;
9.7 million ounces of silver; and
120 million pounds of copper.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/yamana-gold-announces-fourth-quarter-231040406.html
 

Ether_Snake

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Funny stuff from Garth, so true:

Remember Ebola?

Only a few months ago the African disease was causing panic. Airports thousands of miles away went into high alert. Myopic Canada shut its borders to people coming from afflicted areas. Good Samaritan health care workers returning from fighting the virus were ostracized and feared. And financial markets slumped as people on subways in Toronto and New York worried about the guy sitting next to them.

Fear. Unplugged.

Ebola’s largely contained these days. A couple of people in North America died. No pandemic. Next?

So now it’s measles. And oil. Ukraine. Lefties in Greece. Deflation. Putin.

There’s always something to worry about in a world where nothing happens without a selfie. Just read the comments on this pathetic blog. We’re all experts. Know almost everything. And for the rest, there’s Google. Mostly it scares the poop out of people.

Magnifying fear today are the merchants of it. Hedge fund managers and burned-out pundits like Marc Faber, Jim Rickards or Harry Dent never let up with predictions of a 50% market crash or 25 years of depression. Behind it usually lurks the ‘advice’ to buy into their funds, subscribe to their newsletters or join their bullion-licking club. So far they have an impressive track record. 100% wrong.
 

percephone

Neo Member
What do you guys think of buying Yamana Gold?

015-2017 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS

Portfolio with stable production, cost and cash flow base supports focus returning to growth in mineral reserves and mineral resources, and production.
2015 total expected production:
9% increase in gold only production to 1.30 million ounces;
9.7 million ounces of silver; and
120 million pounds of copper.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/yamana-gold-announces-fourth-quarter-231040406.html

When it's in the news, it's already overpriced
 

Ether_Snake

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With all this talk of every tech companies making cars, I'm curious what it will do to the TSLA stock.
 

Lubricus

Member
With all this talk of every tech companies making cars, I'm curious what it will do to the TSLA stock.

This will hurt them more:

At last month’s Detroit Auto Show, General Motors unveiled the Chevrolet Bolt concept, an electric car with an intriguing combination of a 200-mile range and estimated $30,000 price tag (after a $7,500 Federal tax credit is applied).

Then, news leaked out that GM was planning to put the Bolt into production next year in Michigan, ahead of a 2017 launch date.

Now, GM is confirming that. At the 2015 Chicago Auto Show, it announced that essentially everything from those reports is true.
http://ecomento.com/2015/02/16/gm-confirms-chevy-bolt-electric-car/
 

Ether_Snake

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I see, interesting.

Btw I'm wondering what to do with DIG now that I'm at break even. I think it could fall again, this seems to be a bull trap.
 

Acid08

Banned
Hey everyone!

So I was wondering, is it cool to ask a credit card question in here? This seems to be the closest thing to a Finances-GAF :p
 

Mr.Mike

Member
Do you guys think investing in a mutual fund a good idea? If so, any recommendations?

Mutual Funds aren't an inherently bad idea, but be aware that they often have high management fees. Not usually upfront, but they skim a certain amount off the top every year. So look into that before investing in one. Also look into their investing strategy and make sure their strategy matches up with the amount of risk you are willing to take.

People here often recommend index funds as they have lower fees and provide good diversification. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/indexfund.asp

I personally invest in the "Balanced Growth" one of these https://www.tangerine.ca/en/investing/investment-funds/investment-fund/index.html . Of course these are Canadian.

If you have a good amount of money you would be better off investing in ETF's instead, which are like mutual funds, but are traded on stock exchanges like any other stock. They tend to have much lower management fees than mutual funds, but you will have to pay a commission when you buy units. In my personal situation these commissions would be greater than the management fees on my mutual funds, which is why I'm personally using those instead. Of course when I've saved up enough money I'll move into ETF to save on management expenses.

http://canadiancouchpotato.com/couch-potato-faq/

The above is a pretty good site about index investing, Canadian of course, but much of the advice should be applicable anywhere.
 

Ventara

Member
Is there a good place you guys would recommend to learn about the stock market? I know zero as of right now. OP has deleted everything.
 

nubbe

Member
I don't get why crude is trading over $40...
Inventory is rising and supply is increasing

only the shitty fields have been closed

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/18/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0LM03T20150218

The selloff came ahead of supply estimates due at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT) from industry group American Petroleum Institute that could show a build of over 3 million barrels of crude last week.

"We have more supply coming from here with the refinery maintenance season in swing, and that's prompting some people at least to ask if the market has overstretched itself with the rebound," said Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors in Laurel Hollow in New York.
 

DeathoftheEndless

Crashing this plane... with no survivors!
Mutual Funds aren't an inherently bad idea, but be aware that they often have high management fees. Not usually upfront, but they skim a certain amount off the top every year. So look into that before investing in one. Also look into their investing strategy and make sure their strategy matches up with the amount of risk you are willing to take.

People here often recommend index funds as they have lower fees and provide good diversification. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/indexfund.asp

I personally invest in the "Balanced Growth" one of these https://www.tangerine.ca/en/investing/investment-funds/investment-fund/index.html . Of course these are Canadian.

If you have a good amount of money you would be better off investing in ETF's instead, which are like mutual funds, but are traded on stock exchanges like any other stock. They tend to have much lower management fees than mutual funds, but you will have to pay a commission when you buy units. In my personal situation these commissions would be greater than the management fees on my mutual funds, which is why I'm personally using those instead. Of course when I've saved up enough money I'll move into ETF to save on management expenses.

http://canadiancouchpotato.com/couch-potato-faq/

The above is a pretty good site about index investing, Canadian of course, but much of the advice should be applicable anywhere.

Alright, thanks for the info and the links. I'll look into it.
 

Ether_Snake

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I don't get why crude is trading over $40...
Inventory is rising and supply is increasing

only the shitty fields have been closed

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/18/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0LM03T20150218

I don't trust this so much yet, because how come no one saw it coming? Technology got magically better overnight? There's really no logical explanation why prices would have gone down so quickly. An increase in supply would have been gradual and foreseeable. The only thing that can really justify this is a huge drop in demand, or the numbers are manipulated similarly to how gold/silver/etc was. Maybe manipulating the oil price is the new thing after being caught manipulating the other commodities' prices.

Or, prices were always hugely inflated and whoever was responsible for that stopped doing that.

Whatever the case, the current explanations don't make sense for such a rapid drop.

Meanwhile: Did the Fed Just Enter the Currency Wars?

The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting last month have foreign-exchange traders wondering whether Janet Yellen has joined the currency wars.

Policy makers pointed to the dollar’s rising value as “a persistent source of restraint” on exports in a surprisingly dovish set of meeting minutes published Wednesday. The greenback fell against a broad group of its peers.

Central bankers from Europe to Australia have engaged this year in bouts of rate-cutting oneupmanship that’ve left the U.S. as the only developed nation forecast to raise borrowing costs in 2015. The dollar climbed to its strongest in more than a decade as a result, prompting billionaire Warren Buffett and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. President Gary Cohn to question whether the Fed can now increase rates without damaging the U.S. economy.

I wonder, if the USD goes down, maybe goldbugs will finally see gold go back up, cause I don't see any place else than the USD to put my money.
 
Today's sobering thought:

If I had bought $1,000 of TSLA anytime between 2010 (IPO) and 2013, I would have $200,000 now.

Hindsight is always 20/20, and it hurts like a motherfucker

With all this talk of every tech companies making cars, I'm curious what it will do to the TSLA stock.

Nothing, the Chevy Volt has been on the market since 2011 and it's done fuck-all to slow the exponential rise in TSLA's value.

Now the rumors that Apple is working on the iCar or is interested in acquiring TSLA straight up for what Tim Cook probably considers pocket change, that's the interesting bit. Apple doesn't know shit about designing or making cars but they would be very scary to the world's automakers if they owned TSLA and instantly had the knowledge and the factory that Elon Musk's company has built from zero in just five years.
 

Ether_Snake

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Today's sobering thought:

If I had bought $1,000 of TSLA anytime between 2010 (IPO) and 2013, I would have $200,000 now.

Hindsight is always 20/20, and it hurts like a motherfucker

No, you would have around $8000-10000.
 
yeh i was just about to post that.
if you had purchase 1000 shares for $30k, then yeh, you would have made around $150k.

but yeh, i distinctly remember following tesla around when it was $32 to $37 and thinking about purchasing and never did. it had one good earnings in Q2 of 2013 i think and it was at $200 so quickly.
 
No, you would have around $8000-10000.

Also I'm bad at math, thanks for the correction

yeh i was just about to post that.
if you had purchase 1000 shares for $30k, then yeh, you would have made around $150k.

but yeh, i distinctly remember following tesla around when it was $32 to $37 and thinking about purchasing and never did. it had one good earnings in Q2 of 2013 i think and it was at $200 so quickly.

I remember one month it was at $40 and the next month it was over $100
 
not really. i'm not necessarily talking a straight shot up thru the year. some stocks get so much hype around them that they make for great trading opportunities both up and down in large percentages.

theres always a hype stock. prior to the other mentions, it was apple for a few years, and it could be apple again this year.
 

Ether_Snake

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Of course, Solar City posts a loss, so down it goes. At least installations are going up.
 

Ventara

Member
So I just learned about bonds, and is there any reason NOT to buy them as opposed to having your money sitting in the bank? I mean, you're guaranteed your money back, and you get interest on top of that, right?

check out investopedia.com

Thanks! I was actually reading some of the beginner stuff earlier. Seems like a helpful place to start.
 

Mr.Mike

Member
Does anyone know how the mangament fees on ETF's consisting of other ETF's is calculated?

iShares has a new All-World ex Canada ETF that appeals to me because it includes exposure to mid and small caps as well as emerging markets, which my current portfolio doesn't have but I'd like to have. And it's MER is 0.2% which is a lot lower than my current portfolio.

I figure towards the end of 2015 I'll sell my Tangerine mutual fund units and take them out of my TFSA so I can have that money/contribution room to move into ETF's with in 2016. I'm considering doing a 80/10/10 split between XAW, a Canada total market ETF, and a Canadian bond ETF.

EDIT: As per an RBC page about ETF's
Management Expense Ratio (MER): The percentage of a fund’s average net assets paid out of the fund each year to cover the day-to-day and fixed costs of managing the fund. The figure is reported in the Fund’s annual management report of fund performance. MER includes all management fees and GST/HST paid by the fund for the period, including fees paid indirectly as a result of holding other ETFs.
 

Ether_Snake

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How much would you be weighted in Canada? I'm 100% out of it now. My reasoning is there is absolutely no reason for me to be heavily weighted in Canada just because I live here. So I'm invested in the US and Europe. Might diversify more later, but see no reason to right now.

Vanguard has VXC that does the same https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individual/etfs-detail-overview.htm?portId=9548
The rate is a bit higher at 0.25%
I don't own it simply because it's 50% US, and I'm already heavily invested in the US.
Otherwise you have VDU which excludes north america, I might buy that later: https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individual/etfs-detail-overview.htm?portId=9558

edit: So tempted to got OTC and buy some Adidas, I can't believe they won't rebound, and they are up 7% since the start of the year. They got challenges, but the new direction on the high end collabs are really good, and Kanye will give them good publicity they have been lacking. Can't believe UA is so popular now, their market cap is as high as Adidas, seems to be just a name thing to me "I'm wearing armor, this stuff is strong!". Their t-shirts are of the worst quality. I think I could get a 20% return this year alone on Adidas, but maybe UA will just manage to stand in their way. Damn you DDD, SSYS, SCTY for burning my money.
 

Ventara

Member
So I'm playing this fake beginners investing game on Investopedia, and there's a $30 commission fee? So I can't just buy and sell stocks willy nilly. I'm guessing it's best to invest in one/two companies instead of a bunch with the fake $10K? I still need to read a bunch of tutorials. I don't even know who to invest in.
 
So I'm playing this fake beginners investing game on Investopedia, and there's a $30 commission fee? So I can't just buy and sell stocks willy nilly. I'm guessing it's best to invest in one/two companies instead of a bunch with the fake $10K? I still need to read a bunch of tutorials. I don't even know who to invest in.

Yes, buying stock for 50$ when the fees are a sizeable chunk of that is silly. Now the question when it starts being 'worth it' really depends on how long you plan on holding the assets and how much movement there is in a given stock.
Personally I would say anything where the one time cost is more than 2% is inadvisable, obviously the lower the better. If you want to really buy and sell on a very regular basis that is far too much!
 

RevoDS

Junior Member
So I just learned about bonds, and is there any reason NOT to buy them as opposed to having your money sitting in the bank? I mean, you're guaranteed your money back, and you get interest on top of that, right?



Thanks! I was actually reading some of the beginner stuff earlier. Seems like a helpful place to start.
If you're talking about domestic bonds for a stable country, then yes, you're pretty much guaranteed to get your money back, but that's not the case for all bonds in general.

In theory, you should always get your money back but in practice, that's only the case when the entity that sold the bond is solvent. There is always a default risk, but you can minimize that risk if you choose carefully what you buy.

Basically, you'll be fine if you stick to government bonds ex-Greek ones, and corporate bonds of highly-rated cash cows. Just don't go out and buy junk bonds yielding 12% and you won't have anything to worry about.
 
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