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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
vpance
Member
Options are powerful, and even less risky compared to buying stock when used correctly, but you need to know the ins and outs of them first (greeks, as in theta, beta, etc). Definitely come back to them later when you've got a better feel for the markets.
I feel like I should recommend some books to you but everything I learned was from reading forums, blogs, and trial and error trading all sorts of stuff, lol.
Don't be discouraged too much though. Many traders are getting swung around as of late because of the markets being stuck in a range. During situations like this you have to either be nimble or stay out.
The easiest money to be made is when the trend is strong, and that's when you can afford to take bigger chances. Look at 13/34 EMA cross overs, for example, to spot trend changes.
vpance
Member
This is an area I've been really focused on, continue holding. Things got a little dicey after Brexit but important support levels held.
Nice call. I've been adding to NVAX since I read the article you posted and will continue to add on dips.
EXEL is making another push too. Between EXEL and NVAX I'm having a really good day and the future looks bright for both.
You are probably right. I used the doom and gloom and Friday and Monday too add to positions.
Great, thanks for the advice.
Yeah, I picked up a book called the volatility edge in options trading that someone recommend in another thread and I have a dummies guide to technical analysis but I learn best through trial and error which is not the best way with real money lol.
I definitely didn't understand how theta worked but I've gotten a grasp on it by just checking prices on certain options day to day as stock prices change.
So what time frames would you say are best for confirming a reversal using a cross over?
vpance
Member
You could always try paper trading for a while to see if your system is working. In fact, I would highly recommend it. I should have done more of that myself in the beginning.
Simply put the theta portion of an option is the time value that's left until expiry. As it approaches the expiry date, the theta decreases at an increasing rate. The beta is a measure of volatility, so if the stock itself is volatile you're going to be paying a higher premium. Eg. solar, and biotech stocks. Theta and beta are the only ones I really care about, personally.
If you're straight buying options you need to be keenly aware of the time left, which is why I usually buy ones at least a month out. Options that expire a week or two out give you very little wiggle room if things don't initially go your way. Time is not your friend when you buy options, but when you sell them they are.
There are soo many options strategies. You should try to learn them all even if you don't use them.
For short term 15 min. Longer term you can check hourly, then daily, and weekly. It all depends on how long you're planning to stay in the trade right? Common support or resistance levels are 50, 100 and 200 period moving averages. Things like MACD and RSI divergence at bottoms or tops help build the case for reversals, but the existence of either doesn't necessarily mean it will happen. You have to remember it only builds upon the probability of it occuring. Once you gather enough "evidence" through various means you can be more confident in placing the trade.
And draw trend lines! There's some free sites out there that automagically spot obvious ones. When I'm doing research on a stock one of the first things I'll do is go to finviz.com and enter in the ticker and check the advanced chart.
I did do some paper trading but I was having a hard time finding a free website that is real time. I signed up for an options house account to use theirs but my PC is really slow and their browser lags it.
Yeah, I've been reading up on options strategies and I've learned a lot in the past couple of months. I've been watching SRPT because I'm tempted to write calls since the volitility is so high but I know its a pretty risky stock.
I forgot to mention before I have my charts set up with the 20,50,100, and 200 SMA. One I have set up with a SMA 4,9,18 crossover too and I've been using bollinger bands as well.
I was focusing more on 2 minute charts too so I'm sure I was getting false signals because of it.
I use freestockcharts.com but I'll have to check out finviz.com. Thanks, I appreciate it.
vpance
Member
Yeah freestockcharts is good. I check finviz and investing.com sometimes during the day just to get a quick read on how futures, currencies, and commodities are doing, but I have all my saved charts on Stockcharts and Tradingview.
And Stocktwits is an awesome site to check out what other traders are doing. Learned quite a lot there.
I usually use 1 min charts to check on the intraday waves of market, but I don't do scalping kind of trades anymore and rather focus on long term.
Ether_Snake
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Is America's Thirst for Oil Just an Illusion?
More at the link, but it sounds like oil could go down again. Wouldn't surprise me, I think $50+ is over, except for rare short-term moments when some events warrant it.
More at the link, but it sounds like oil could go down again. Wouldn't surprise me, I think $50+ is over, except for rare short-term moments when some events warrant it.
Ether_Snake
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Vanguard longterm bond (BLV) reaching an all time high, wondering if I should liquidate some of it.
Same for reits (VNQ).
The thing is both have risen when markets rallied and when they tanked, and I see no reason why at least BLV would not continue to rise in this market.
What do you guys think?
Same for reits (VNQ).
The thing is both have risen when markets rallied and when they tanked, and I see no reason why at least BLV would not continue to rise in this market.
What do you guys think?
ClosingADoor
Member
+4% for now on most of my stocks. Finally some recovery. See if it holds and I can get out of the red this month again.
ClosingADoor
Member
Too much finance and insurance for me, about 50% of my portfolio. And only European stock (German and Dutch). So I'm at -13% still overall.
thestopsign
Member
My account would be vastly positive if it weren't for SCTY right now. It is down only 16% for me, but it also makes up roughly 25% of my investments since I just sold off most of my AT&T stock. I'm still about 7% up since I started investing in August 2015 though.
ClosingADoor
Member
Damn. I'd sell and wait to buy back on the drop down later on.
Nice further recovery for me. Bought a bit of Siemens last week. Will see if it goes a bit further and get out again. Also got my first biotech stock. Local company, see how far they can go. I'd be happy with a 25% increase or something later on, but optimistic guys are saying it can go much, much further. We'll see.
Seriously, I'd peel off at least half your shares.
What biotech stock did you pick up?
Biotech stocks typically have bigger swings up and down but as long as the business is good they generally move up.
Pokemon Go bump. I almost fell out my chair today when CNBC started playing a Pokemon theme song before show start.
ClosingADoor
Member
Dutch company called Kiadis Pharma (AMS:KDS). They focus on blood cancers and lessening (deathly) side effects after transplants. That makes is possible to use more donors, even if they are not a direct match for the patient.
Got in at 11.55 last week. Closed at 12.30 today, but I'll hold on to it for some time, since these products take years to develop and test.
I don't think I can get access to that Biotech stock. Thanks for letting me know though. Biotech stocks are really the only individual stocks I invest in outside of my retirement index funds.
I should have went to full position right away. I've been legging into the stock (which is what I normally do) and its been going up almost the whole time. Only at about half position of where I want to be. I might just have to add on daily dips on its way up.
I should have went to full position right away. I've been legging into the stock (which is what I normally do) and its been going up almost the whole time. Only at about half position of where I want to be. I might just have to add on daily dips on its way up.
Yeah, I can't give advice one way or the other. My heart thinks this is going above $10 in the near future, but my brain says be careful. Wish I peeled off some shares at $14-15 last year. Biotech got blindsided by Shkreli and that Hillary tweet.
ClosingADoor
Member
If I had them, I'd probably put a sell order at $30 today for half, and a stop limit a bit lower for the rest, depending on how much stock you have.
I won't trust a +30% rise on hype and no income numbers yet to hold.
Yeah, that sounds like a good idea
Unfortunately I bought the stock at 24 a share, so it's not too far above that, but yeah the sudden increase with no numbers makes it likely it'll go down fast
ClosingADoor
Member
Could also go up still of course if sentiment is really positive, not an easy way to tell. Lock in at least some profits I'd say.
You have several options..
1. Sell all
2. Sell a little bit at a time on the way up
3. Hold and hope it goes up more
Remember, you'll never go broke taking profits.
May be it's different in your case, but the last time I tried to put a stop limit order on NTDOY via Tradeking, I couldn't. Said something like it's unavailable for this OTC.
Stop might have been too tight.
You're always better off using trailing stops by percentage anyway...choose a percentage from the share price you're not willing to go below (maybe 5-8%). The trailing stop will rise with the share price.
So I guess this is it? Might be entering the final stage of the bull market post 2008.
I feel everything gained now will be given back in a year or two but that is OK. Corrections are needed before the next true leg up.
Of course some argue we have only hit the middle of the current bull market.
I feel everything gained now will be given back in a year or two but that is OK. Corrections are needed before the next true leg up.
Of course some argue we have only hit the middle of the current bull market.
Ether_Snake
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What is happening is that safe assets are giving yields that are too low, so everyone is putting their money in stocks. That means a single bad news could rattle the markets significantly, and safe assets would at least momentarily bounce back, fueling a rush out of stocks.
Wouldn't surprise me to see Russia do something, or the Italian banks situation going worst. European institutions have a habit of throwing things under the rug, pretty much their go-to solutions.
The was a piece last year about how markets keep making it through big events like sars, ebola, isis, Trump, etc, and how that is making
markets less risk-averse, which could cumulate into a big bubble as investors don't fear any outcome anymore, especially with the central banks lowering rates around the world. Now we just went through brexit too, fueling this further.
Wouldn't surprise me to see Russia do something, or the Italian banks situation going worst. European institutions have a habit of throwing things under the rug, pretty much their go-to solutions.
The was a piece last year about how markets keep making it through big events like sars, ebola, isis, Trump, etc, and how that is making
markets less risk-averse, which could cumulate into a big bubble as investors don't fear any outcome anymore, especially with the central banks lowering rates around the world. Now we just went through brexit too, fueling this further.
cpp_is_king
Member
If spy breaks 220 I'm going 100% into cash
ClosingADoor
Member
No doubt thing have to come down sometime. But what is the alternative for most people at the moment? Markets are being propped up by governments, and for regular people it is basically the only way to get some return on your assets at the moment. Or you're talking a 1% interest on the bank.
vpance
Member
When there's nowhere to hide, staying mostly in cash is good option. You only need to avoid the bad years and lock in your gains. Fuck riding out another 60% dip, since it will take at least 3 times as long to gain it back.
If we're talking about most people who do not manage their own money, then yes it will be in the markets or RE and they will get burnt.
If we're talking about most people who do not manage their own money, then yes it will be in the markets or RE and they will get burnt.
I don't blame you for thinking that way. There was a study done about someone investing 100 dollars in 1900 would be worth 25000 today. If you missed the 20 best days in the market it is worth 4000. Miss the 20 worst days and it is worth 162k. There is something to be said about sitting on the sidelines in a bad market. You can't pick a bottom but you can watch protected as the market goes down and then pick a point to get back in. I might move my Roth IRA to a vanguard money market fund if things go south.
thestopsign
Member
I got antsy and did that today, I got in at 194 and got three quarters of dividends from it. Up 10+% so I just decided to lock that in.
cpp_is_king
Member
I actually have a bunch of stuff, not just SPY, but I just think it's overinflated right now, and it's a good indicator of the market as a whole. So if SPY gets that inflated, then it's a good sign everything else is too. My entire portfolio is up about 25% right now, no qualms whatsoever about locking in something like that, especially since I need pretty much 100% of my money next year to refinance my house. My only qualm is that some of it is still in the short term capital gains rate, which is unfortunate, but I'd rather pay an extra 10% tax on the profit than lose 10% or more of the entire value.
Man, I pray NVAX hits the jackpot before that occurs. Data readout this quarter for phase 3.
I'm not too worried about the near future, but we've run a bull market for such a long time there is going to be a pullback. I'm thinking more 2017 and 2018. There should be some steam behind this last run. Plus since everything is worse overseas that overseas money is now flowing into the us stock market.
Good news is biotech has been crushed so hard recently one can argue close to a bottom was put in. IBB double bounced off of 240. That was down from the near all time high 500.
Plus NVAX being barely a mid cap isn't going to be as affected by the broad market. It'll be mostly affected by news, either positive or negative. Which will drive the price up or down significantly.
thestopsign
Member
Whoops accidentally posted again somehow.
Ether_Snake
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I don't see a 60% drop being possible. But when it will go down, there will be a lot of preople thinking they don't want to get caught by that again and there will be a big pullout. I don't think it would last long but it would likely cause markets to stagnate as people wonder what can central banks do at all this time.
Well I consider this a binary event. So yah, way up or way down.
vpance
Member
I'm also thinking a major top will be seen in 2017. Mrbob is reading the same tarot cards as I am, lol.
I'm careful not to get too bearish now though since the trend is still up. I finally watched The Big Short the other day. While they were smart, they got short way too soon and were in extended agony having to outlast the irrational strength of the bonds. And that kind of irrationality is what usually happens at tops.
Anything is possible! 50% is just your standard mean reversion after all. But you take the worry of the guessing game out when you exit in time
It will take a long time to reverse the next correction. Up 8-9 years will be down and chop around 2-3 years at least, that's just how it works.
I'm careful not to get too bearish now though since the trend is still up. I finally watched The Big Short the other day. While they were smart, they got short way too soon and were in extended agony having to outlast the irrational strength of the bonds. And that kind of irrationality is what usually happens at tops.
Anything is possible! 50% is just your standard mean reversion after all. But you take the worry of the guessing game out when you exit in time
It will take a long time to reverse the next correction. Up 8-9 years will be down and chop around 2-3 years at least, that's just how it works.Yeah I'm not pointing to doom and gloom yet either. Just to be aware of the run the market has had.
However I do believe current state of the stock market is interesting. We have already had sectors go down 20, 30%, or some cases lower. We have had perennial winners get knocked back while the general market goes up. Perhaps the stock market is is now getting big enough where certain sectors can keep it propped up while other ones get hammered. Financials are supposed to lead rallies and the financial market is being crushed right now, yet the whole market is moving up. Maybe the future of the market will be in sector rotation and when to move.
The market can easily go down as much as it goes up. It could go down 60% but I have a tough time seeing that happen unless the US economy goes into the tank. It is the one world economy which is holding up decently right now. The US stock market keeps shaking off any worldwide scares because locally things are fairly strong.
However I do believe current state of the stock market is interesting. We have already had sectors go down 20, 30%, or some cases lower. We have had perennial winners get knocked back while the general market goes up. Perhaps the stock market is is now getting big enough where certain sectors can keep it propped up while other ones get hammered. Financials are supposed to lead rallies and the financial market is being crushed right now, yet the whole market is moving up. Maybe the future of the market will be in sector rotation and when to move.
The market can easily go down as much as it goes up. It could go down 60% but I have a tough time seeing that happen unless the US economy goes into the tank. It is the one world economy which is holding up decently right now. The US stock market keeps shaking off any worldwide scares because locally things are fairly strong.