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[Ether_Snake]

Reposting from the other thread on the highs.

I think I have an explanation for the rise in the markets. For many years now, since the Great Recession started, there was a lot of fear regarding Europe; everyone knew members might leave for X reason, but no one knew how that would play out. This didn't only put pressure on Europe, it put pressure on the global economy because it was a potential threat to global economic growth. Now that the UK is exiting, there was initially fear, but the lack of chaos in the UK following the government's ability to remain in place has sent a signal that whatever happens with the EU in the long run, it can be managed, it's not the end of the world. It's not better for the UK or Europe, but a huge weight has been removed off Europe's shoulders, which was "What will happen if a member leaves?", and it wasn't Greece or Portugal, but a more important one.

So I think we are seeing markets rise as a result of that, which I wouldn't call a bubble. Obviously low yield on safe assets are fueling the rise of the stock market, but that goes hand in hand; there is a perception that the situation is less stressful than it was a few months and years ago, so of course safe assets yield will fall.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Too bad my German stock is turning red again. Had a good green day until American markets opened. Sold my Siemens, see if it goes back down in the 80s and I'll be back.

 

[ColdPizza]

Good buying op on NVAX today

 

[Mrbob]

Yeah I added some more NVAX at 7.45....getting closer to full position. Didn't want to go all in yet in case it gaps down a little more. If it runs ahead I guess I just let it run.

 

[gazele]

Nintendo up another 15% in Japan, such a weird stock right now

 

[Captain Smoker]

Nintendo up another 15% in Japan, such a weird stock right now

I bought some at 130 € and sold at 190 €, now it's 225 €, should've waited (a bit) longer. ^^

Thinking about future potential I might buy again, good thing is my bank has saving plans for stocks and Nintendo is one of them, so I can buy monthly without the need to invest 225 € out of the gate for a single stock.


And hello Trading-GAF!

 

[ClosingADoor]

$30 seems the limit for a bit now I think, unless there is some more positive news coming out. It was also the price at the start of the spike Monday.

Don't know if I'd put money in it at this rate. Seems too late. How much does Nintendo profit from this anyway, considering all the rights are shared?

 

[vpance]

I think on the low end, $40 is possible by Dec. High end $60.

 

[Captain Smoker]

$30 seems the limit for a bit now I think, unless there is some more positive news coming out. It was also the price at the start of the spike Monday.

Don't know if I'd put money in it at this rate. Seems too late. How much does Nintendo profit from this anyway, considering all the rights are shared?

Apple / Google get 30% on their particular store.

Leaves 70% to Niantic, which is probably shared between Google, Nintendo and The Pokemon Company & Niantic.

But Nintendo has also 30% in The Pokemon Company and stakes in Game Freak which has stakes in TPC + Nintendo has some additional trademark rights I think.



I think Nintendo could get 15% - 30% of the money generated by Pokemon GO. If it's not a fad it could make a billion in one year, so that's 150.000.000 $ - 300.000.000 $ for Nintendo in 12 months. (If Pokemon GO is the top-performer in the App Stores in the future)

But at this point, I'm more or less guessing their %.


Well, we'll see in October when they release their next report for July - September.

 

[massoluk]

Ok, I just shaved off 2/5 of my Nintendo stocks, I'm confident it could go above 70 with their underutilized IP in the long run, but this rise is too quick for comfort. I will kick myself in the ass later one way or another.

 

[ColdPizza]

Ok, I just shaved off 2/5 of my Nintendo stocks, I'm confident it could go above 70 with their underutilized IP in the long run, but this rise is too quick for comfort. I will kick myself in the ass later one way or another.

Honestly, congrats. Remember, you never go broke taking profits.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Pokemon GO wont increase Nintendos income by a huge margin, if my calculations are somewhat right ($ 150 million - $ 300 million) it's less than their current amiibo & accessory business (491.000.000 $ revenue in FY3 2016).


But, this is a very good opportunity to increase their mindshare.


Overall, I'm quite positive about Nintendo, their enhanced IP business is the best decision in a long time, mobile should increase their profits, digital business increase their margins.


The question mark is the NX, if it's good I might invest money again (and hope the price decreases until the reveal ).

 

[ColdPizza]

Decently balanced article on NVAX

http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/...gn=article&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=yahoo-2

 

[Ether_Snake]

How can Nintendo replicate this success with other IPs? I don't see it. It will be all Pokemon and micro transactions for the next few years.

edit: Horrible to say but there you go, a good reason for stocks to come back down now. The attacks in Paris raise the specter again of FN winning in France, France referendum, and Trump boost. Terrorists know targeting France has long lasting impacts beyond the body count.

 

[Usobuko]

I don't hold Nintendo stock anymore because I changed the composition of my portfolio during February. Not much regrets since 1) I didn't lose any money 2)the available capital was also put into good use.

The stock value now, this is about the peak of anticipation of Nintendo venture into mobile game. The way the Japanese market rally is as though they priced in about a 1.5x SuperCell ( valued at 9-10b sold to Tencent ) into Nintendo. Don't forget the Yen is about 10% stronger than last year's too.

Honestly, I would sell at least a portion of it if I'm holding them.

 

[vpance]

Terror attacks are mostly ignored by the markets. Even 9/11 had a big rally after a reactionary dip. Same goes for natural disasters too. Nothing short of a nuke attack would bring down markets for an extended period of time...

There are some interesting numbers around the dates of the last 3 attacks in France. If the pattern continues then there will be another next year I'll reveal the math if it happens on the date.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Stock-GAF, my ARM is >40% up after SoftBank announced to buy them.

Don't know if I should sell now or wait..


Sold Nintendo at 190€, now it's 260€.


Edit: I think I'll wait, ARM has still potential + still awaiting for the report from last quarter.

 

[ColdPizza]

Stock-GAF, my ARM is >40% up after SoftBank announced to buy them.

Don't know if I should sell now or wait..


Sold Nintendo at 190€, now it's 260€.


Edit: I think I'll wait, ARM has still potential + still awaiting for the report from last quarter.

Sell some to take profit.

 

[Ether_Snake]

DDD and SSYS falling 12% each on analysts suddenly saying they're strong sells.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Damn, Nintendo. Will you stop rising already and make people regret not jumping in sooner.

 

[vpance]

$26 was the last dip to get in, lol.

 

[massoluk]

Last week

Ok, I just shaved off 2/5 of my Nintendo stocks, I'm confident it could go above 70 with their underutilized IP in the long run, but this rise is too quick for comfort. I will kick myself in the ass later one way or another.

This week

Story of my life. I am indeed kicking myself in the ass.
Yeah yeah, I know. You can't time the market. Original game plan still in effect, bailing the fuck out as soon as Pokemon hit Japan

 

[vpance]

If I was in from the teens I would let it ride.

When is their next earnings report? Only very bad news will be able to take this down, with the market in bull mode as well.

 

[test_account]

Whats the best website to buy international stocks? I can buy stocks through my bank, but they only carry very few international ones. Is there a website that allows anyone to sign up (or at least from Europe) that allows you to buy stocks in Nintendo, Microsoft, Sony, Apple etc.? Also that is easy to use and doesnt require much stock trading information. Basically looking for something that easily has a "buy/sell" option and where you can easily see how much you've gained or losed.

And also a site that allows for easy deposit and withdrawal of money. I dont want those sites that give you a welcome bonus where you have to earn X-amount of money before you can withdraw anything.

 

[Captain Smoker]

If I was in from the teens I would let it ride.

When is their next earnings report? Only very bad news will be able to take this down, with the market in bull mode as well.

Jul. 27, 2016 First Quarter Earnings Release
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/schedule/index.html


275 € wtf Nintendo, stop this shit.


I think the stock is going down after the Earnings Release because it's still from April - June and wont represent the impact of Pokemon GO.


Maybe I'll buy some shares again after this.

Spoiler

Then they reveal the NX which is a total fail and Pokemon GO contributes 1% to their income and everything crashes.

 

[vpance]

Or it will go up even more when they announce more details on future mobile games 😆

 

[Clay Davis]

Hi gaf.

I wanted to know what anyone with shares in ARM Holdings is doing today? Are you selling now or waiting to see if the price will go up?

My dad sold some of his earlier and he got a very nice return from what he's told me (almost £50.000), I have roughly the same amount of shares as him but I don't know if I should sell them too. I don't need the money, but I don't want to end up in a situation where I get much less for my shares.

Is it short termist to sell now or is this as good as it will get?

 

[rokkerkory]

Hi gaf.

I wanted to know what anyone with shares in ARM Holdings is doing today? Are you selling now or waiting to see if the price will go up?

My dad sold some of his earlier and he got a very nice return from what he's told me (almost £50.000), I have roughly the same amount of shares as him but I don't know if I should sell them too. I don't need the money, but I don't want to end up in a situation where I get much less for my shares.

Is it short termist to sell now or is this as good as it will get?

It's up like 50%? Sell and cash out.

 

[ClosingADoor]

I'd sell. Or at least sell a part of it. Take profit when you can.

 

[Clay Davis]

Thank you both.

I'll sell some now but also keep some in case it goes higher, but would it reasonable to say this is as good as it will get, at least for now?

 

[ClosingADoor]

Thank you both.

I'll sell some now but also keep some in case it goes higher, but would it reasonable to say this is as good as it will get, at least for now?

Yes, I'd say so. SoftBank is paying 17 a share if I see this right. So there is little reason for it to go any higher on the short term. And that is a 43% premium already. Obviously they see more growth there in the long term, or they wouldn't buy it. But don't expect it quickly.

So while it might go up in the future, I wouldn't expect that much from it and take profit when you can.

That said, I'm just an amateur at this that is not making much money and very risk averse.

 

[Mrbob]

Nintendo stock rising shows in a way the only thing rational about the stock market is that it is irrational. No reason for it to run this high off of Pokemon Go but I'd definitely consider some trimming at this price. Don't have any Nintendo stock to trim though. I'm unconvinced NX will have any impact on the stock price unless it is something way different that gets everyone excited. The reason Pokemon GO bumped the Nintendo stock price up is that investors have wanted Nintendo in mobile for years. Funny thing is we don't even know how much Nintendo is getting in this collaboration. We'll find out at earnings but holding through it could be a slight risk.

If we had a crystal ball to predict the future we would all be rich. Hold and it goes down then feel bad for not selling at a higher price. Sell and it goes up and feel remorse for not holding. However you can't lose money by taking a profit.

 

[ColdPizza]

Nintendo stock rising shows in a way the only thing rational about the stock market is that it is irrational. No reason for it to run this high off of Pokemon Go but I'd definitely consider some trimming at this price. Don't have any Nintendo stock to trim though. I'm unconvinced NX will have any impact on the stock price unless it is something way different that gets everyone excited. The reason Pokemon GO bumped the Nintendo stock price up is that investors have wanted Nintendo in mobile for years. Funny thing is we don't even know how much Nintendo is getting in this collaboration. We'll find out at earnings but holding through it could be a slight risk.

If we had a crystal ball to predict the future we would all be rich. Hold and it goes down then feel bad for not selling at a higher price. Sell and it goes up and feel remorse for not holding. However you can't lose money by taking a profit.

Personally I'd be selling off in increments (depending on the size of my position) on the way up with a trailing stop with a specific percentage programmed in. This is probably in overbought territory at this point.

 

[Mrbob]

Nintendo stock went up almost 11 percent before the Nikkei closed. Perhaps the run isn't over yet.

Edit: Make that about 14%.

 

[gazele]

Nintendo stock went up almost 11 percent before the Nikkei closed. Perhaps the run isn't over yet.

Edit: Make that about 14%.

And down 5% in US trading with it coming out in Japan tomorrow, very confusing

 

[ChRoNiTe]

Would now be a good time to purchase Netflix shares?

 

[SpecX]

Finally found this thread again, but OP has been wiped out. I get the basics about stock trading, but I'm not sure how to begin. Do I sign up with e trade or look at local options. It's not a lot, but I want to take $500 and invest, use the investments to move into other stocks or buy more shares. At this point it's only to get a feel for things and no way am I looking to turn this into a job.

Trying to see where do I start and hoping you guys can help me here?

 

[vpance]

Would now be a good time to purchase Netflix shares?

Nah.

 

[willow ve]

Would now be a good time to purchase Netflix shares?

Nah. The way they've been missing targets and losing subscribers I would say they will continue to slide.

 

[hollomat]

Anyone holding Activision stock (ATVI) or planning on picking some up before earnings?

I bought around $28 when it ranked in February and it's trading around $41 now. Debating whether or not to hold through earnings in two weeks. I believe overwatch sales exceeded expectations and analyst forecasts, but earnings could always go either way.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Anyone holding Activision stock (ATVI) or planning on picking some up before earnings?

I bought around $28 when it ranked in February and it's trading around $41 now. Debating whether or not to hold through earnings in two weeks. I believe overwatch sales exceeded expectations and analyst forecasts, but earnings could always go either way.

Ubisoft just had great earnings, if that can give you an idea.

Personally I would sell around half with those gains. Post-earning, worst comes to worst there's a 5% drop or so. Up to you

 

[hollomat]

Ubisoft just had great earnings, if that can give you an idea.

Personally I would sell around half with those gains. Post-earning, worst comes to worst there's a 5% drop or so. Up to you

That might be a good idea. Thanks.

 

[BeforeU]

Bought MS on last min yesterday, god I am happy. I hope it goes above 56 today. Will sell it today regardless.

I have AAPL for $98 as well. Should I keep it or sell it before the earnings? lol not so sure about that.

 

[thestopsign]

I have a question based off of mergers or buyouts. If Tesla goes through with its plan on acquiring Solar City, what happens to my Solar City stock?

 

[ColdPizza]

I have a question based off of mergers or buyouts. If Tesla goes through with its plan on acquiring Solar City, what happens to my Solar City stock?

You either get paid out to your brokerage account or your shares get converted to TSLA.

Depends how they set it up.

 

[Meadows]

Should I buy Amazon shares?

 

[vpance]

Oil and CAD about to break one way or the other.

Personally I hope CAD dumps until next year. Markets can't rely on oil and commods to carry the burden anymore. I think laggards like financials and tech will take it up the rest of the way.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Hope oil goes down a bit. I want to buy some Shell again, but it's on a year high now so a bit careful with it.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Oil ain't go up for long if it does at all. $50 is the best price you'll see, ever. It will probably stay around 35-40 on good days. Any increase leads to oversupply.

 

[Mrbob]

I'll post more later but to those looking into biotech stocks check out SPHS. Doing some great things, big money starting to flow into it as well. Might be some consolidation pull back since it went up almost 100% in two days but if they deliver the current price point is dirt cheap.

Rumors flowing too that they are in negotiations for buyout. Normally I don't buy based off buyouts but they may have the wonder drug to treat prostate cancer.

Like all biotechs though big time risk/reward to invest.