Support NeoGAF

[Saerk]

What do you guys think of Washington Mutual. It's real low right now 12.50ish (WM)

 

[lil smoke]

Is it considered "insider" if you worked for a company in the past? Not even for the company, but through a license agreement?

Well IOW... same company, license is gone. Can I safely buy shares of the comapny that we had a license with?

 

[thegreyfox]

Is it considered "insider" if you worked for a company in the past? Not even for the company, but through a license agreement?

Well IOW... same company, license is gone. Can I safely buy shares of the comapny that we had a license with?

Is the information public?

 

[Ether_Snake]

What do you guys think of Washington Mutual. It's real low right now 12.50ish (WM)

Fundamentals look bad, that's all I can say.

 

[lil smoke]

Is the information public?

Financials? Well yes.

Ahhhh, I see. Thanks!

 

[Ether_Snake]

I could buy some COOL (Majesco). Earnings are on the 17th. I feel they can only go up from there.

EDIT: NKE and UA are also interesting, especially UA for potential bigger returns on shorter term.

 

[Ether_Snake]

That's what I thought. High oil prices like that can't be ignore, and every time the feds touch the markets they make it worst.

Anyway, I guess I'll really have to stay out of the game for some time. I'll still be keeping track of it all, but I can't afford to throw much more money when even investing in good value doesn't result in a return. I have to chose between saving a lot of money for a condo, or hoping I can make good money in this market.

Good luck to those who will continue to invest!

I'll still keep an eye on ADSK, ERTS, ADBE, CM, and BA, for potential good returns on what I consider to be under valued. But I'm really hesitant, and this sucks considering they are my most interesting investment choices. I'm just too unsure about the market right now:|

 

[YYZ]

Can someone help me please?

I'm an adult Canadian and I have 14 shares in Wal-Mart that I want to sell. What are my options here?

 

[MobiusPigeon]

FIVE HUNDRED AND NINETY NINE US DOLLARS.

Spoiler

are they in an account or do you actually have certificates for them?

i keep looking at nvidia and cant see a reason to buy. even at this price. PC gaming isnt anywhere near as hot as it was years ago, Console gaming is growing BUT nvidia wont play a major part in that if any for another couple years at least, With the economy the way it is no ones exactly rushing out to buy a new PC or upgrades for that matter.

I'd research something like mobile phones. Someone doing the chipsets or software. I was tempted to pick up MSFT because i know they arent gonna sit on their hands and let apple have the smartphone arena. Google's android is going to change mobile phones too. F Nvidia. Think smaller as in in your pocket smaller. Just my thought.

 

[Ether_Snake]

That's not really true. Sure PC gaming isn't as much a focus right now, but every laptop, every mobile phone, etc., need graphic cards now, and everything except home PCs need to catch up to the full power of your home PC's graphic card capacity, so there is still plenty of room for growth.

 

[MobiusPigeon]

most new pcs have some integrated intel chip. as long as it plays wow or sims consumers dont care.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Cellphones, laptops, etc., all need better graphic cards. People don't care but they buy it anyway because they don't know or because its part of the deal anyway.

Graphic cards are not in danger

Then add emerging markets like China, India, etc.

 

[argon]

As always, do your own research on these, but I thought I'd mention some interesting stocks.

Sotheby's (BID) - Fine art auctioneer, inflation/recession resistant.
American Apparel (APP) - Small cap, sweatshop-free clothing manufacturer
Frontline (FRO) - Oil tanker shipping with huge dividend (~17%)
*Bolt Technology (BOLT) - Develops marine seismic products for oil industry.
*Liquidity Services (LQDT) - Online auction house for government surplus / salvage
Manitowoc (MTW) - Manufactures commerical cranes. Think Dubai..
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) - The best play in the natural gas sector, IMHO

* = stock I own.

 

[Tarazet]

I went long on C right before S&P came out and said that the write-downs related to subprime lending by banks were basically done. We'll see. At this point it's a value stock, so I'm as prepared to lose it as I am to see it make a stunning recovery.

 

[YYZ]

oh I forgot to mention, the Wal-Mart stocks I have are in certificate form under my name. Do I really have to open an account? I just want the money for them.

 

[Ether_Snake]

No idea myself YYZ.

NVDA was up nice today, up 6.37%. Hopefully they'd hit bottom, but who knows

I really feel like I'm missing out on ADSK. And I feel like I'll be saying this until it hits 50 where I'll realize I could have gotten in at 33 when I was saying I missed the train

Should or should I not. Hmm.

As always, do your own research on these, but I thought I'd mention some interesting stocks.

Sotheby's (BID) - Fine art auctioneer, inflation/recession resistant.
American Apparel (APP) - Small cap, sweatshop-free clothing manufacturer
Frontline (FRO) - Oil tanker shipping with huge dividend (~17%)
*Bolt Technology (BOLT) - Develops marine seismic products for oil industry.
*Liquidity Services (LQDT) - Online auction house for government surplus / salvage
Manitowoc (MTW) - Manufactures commerical cranes. Think Dubai..
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) - The best play in the natural gas sector, IMHO

* = stock I own.

BID: Ratios are not bad. I really don't know anything about the market tho, so it's difficult to say. Seems like it could be a good short term investment.
APP: Nothing to make a judgment on, I wouldn't touch it.
FRO: Big debt (altho interest coverage is good). Not very far from its 52-week average high tho. I'd consider it a potential short-term investment but only for short term, but only after another dip.
BOLT: Tough call. Ratiols aren't bad, potential good return considering its current price, but it's on its first major downward trend so its difficult to consider it a good investment especially since it's small cap.
LQDT: No idea, risky no doubt.
MTW: Good ratios. Looks like a potential investment, I'd wait for another dip tho.
KMP: I don't see good ratios. And they're almost at their all time high. I personally wouldn't touch that.

That is just my lowly opinion

EDIT: I'm gonna be paying close attention to CELG, GR, and riskier and CRDN (who dropped a lot last month due to slightly missed earnings, could be a good price).

 

[argon]

I hope nobody owns Bear Stearns shares.. down 47% today.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I hope nobody owns Bear Stearns shares.. down 47% today.

Ouch! And it's not just a big % drop, that's $23. 0_0

This market is making me glad I got out of individual stocks. My bond funds are up a bit so far this year, and my income funds kick out a good dividend this week. With my luck I'd have ended up with Bear Stearns in my portfolio.

As it is, INTC isn't doing me any favors.

 

[Tarazet]

Yeah, I missed on my timing on C by one day.. at least. It hit a fresh low today. The market is so volatile right now, nobody has any idea what anything is worth. Investing in Citibank feels kind of like an optimistic bet on America - if it goes much lower, then it's probably because of problems that will have a much deeper effect on me than the money I lost on the stock.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Yeah this fucking sucks, no one is making except out of total luck these days, or shorting.

The feds are acting like their trying to shock a dead body back to life. How much more money can be thrown at the markets?

 

[speculawyer]

I hope nobody owns Bear Stearns shares.. down 47% today.

Yeah, that is freaky . . . $4 billion in market cap just vanished into thin air. Wow.

A bank failure . . . wow.

 

[Miroku]

Dr. Peter Venkman: This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
Mayor: What do you mean, "biblical"?
Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.
Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

 

[RumblingRosco]

-

 

[_Frank_]

I don't understand you guys buying on a time like this. IT'S GOING DOWN. Don't invest in anything except exceptions or gold companies. It's a time to cash out at least 50% of your positions but now it's almost too late if you havent done this. If we drop under the support next week, OUCH! It will be a good shorting entry point

 

[Synth_floyd]

Yeah this fucking sucks, no one is making except out of total luck these days, or shorting.

The insiders are making money off of the volatility. +400 one day and then -400 over the next 3 days. There's always insider trading going on too.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I can't bother to invest, like I said before, because I see no bottom. I want to buy some ADSK, ADBE, and maybe ERTS, maybe some COOL too, but at this time? Even good news for those companies could do nothing good for the shares because the market will bring them down:|

Look at that volume over the years, and look at how much volume has augmented in the last 8 years:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

No wonder it's so volatile.

 

[MobiusPigeon]

ok with this rate cut and talk of a great depression coming up do we ride it out or sell everything?

 

[stormer]

question: Isn't it a good time to buy certain stock, if you are thinking long term? Right now there is no bottom to be seen. But if you buy a stock thats fairly low now, and you expect to hold it for awhile, couldn't this cash you in say 2 years down the line?

 

[_Frank_]

who knows. I think the good thing to do now if wait till the market shows signs of a bullish trend and enter at this point, not before. Cause the recession can last a couple of years...who nows, maybe stocks are still too expensive.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Right, you buy now thinking it's low but how low is low? You don't know that yet.

Spotting good opportunities is fine, but I wouldn't enter until signs of recovery have come.

It's difficult to make a call really. I don't like how the feds keep getting involved, they always make things worst and everyone ends up sitting on their asses waiting for them to throw more money. It's crazy, dumb, and dangerous.

Like I've said, I keep my eyes on a few companies anyway, but I'll only buy stock when I can afford it. At worst, I lose some money, but at least I don't lose my cushion. I'm currently afraid of missing a bounce on ADSK and BA specifically, but too bad.

 

[Tarazet]

There's two sides to that. If you wait for signs of recovery, then you don't get the maximum gain. Of course, you don't get the extreme downside risk, but that's why prices are so depressed in the first place. People are scared. It's a vortex, and the only way to profit from it is to see through the BS and realize which stocks are falling for no good reason, just as they used to rise for no good reason.

 

[Ether_Snake]

There's two sides to that. If you wait for signs of recovery, then you don't get the maximum gain. Of course, you don't get the extreme downside risk, but that's why prices are so depressed in the first place. People are scared. It's a vortex, and the only way to profit from it is to see through the BS and realize which stocks are falling for no good reason, just as they used to rise for no good reason.

Yeah but how do you really put a price on that? PE alone is not enough. At some point the cash value of the shares mean nothing, so even after all is said and done you still can't know when to really get in. It's really chance when the whole market works on emotions. You might not, but if most investors do, then emotions drive the price.

Considering how much volume has augmented over the past few years, there is NO DOUBT that volatility has increased to the point where values are out of touch with reality, and a value-driven investor can't do shit about that. All you can do now is predict how people will react and invest based on that rather than invest on value, and I don't like doing that.

 

[Tarazet]

Yeah but how do you really put a price on that? PE alone is not enough. At some point the cash value of the shares mean nothing, so even after all is said and done you still can't know when to really get in. It's really chance when the whole market works on emotions. You might not, but if most investors do, then emotions drive the price.

There's also the issue of market cap. As we've seen, there's only so far a good company like Yahoo can drop before it starts drawing hostile bids from competitors eager to capitalize on the lower share prices. A sterling company like Citibank would be the same way.

 

[RumblingRosco]

-

 

[teh_pwn]

question: Isn't it a good time to buy certain stock, if you are thinking long term? Right now there is no bottom to be seen. But if you buy a stock thats fairly low now, and you expect to hold it for awhile, couldn't this cash you in say 2 years down the line?

Yes. If you're doing an IRA portfolio, then you typically have a minimum initial contribution, so you can only get so many funds per year. With Vanguard, only 1 fund per year.

While the argument of Modern Portfolio Theory is to diversify because the market is not predictable, there's certain areas that are more likely to be stable and grow than others. I've said this before, and I'll say it again....avoid the following:

1. Small-cap. Small businesses are having rough times with costs of energy and anything imported overseas. Energy/imports typically a higher percentage of their expenditure, and they can't last bad economic times as long.
2. REITs. Still a huge bubble, and government intervention is just delaying the burst. Without a massive amount of legal immigration, there aren't going to be enough people to occupy all of these homes to create a stable market. BAIL OUT NOW.
3. Growth, tech stocks. It depends on the stock, but many of these companies have such a thin product line that tends to sell very poorly during harsh economic times. However...some of them are doing quite well and are likely to do well in the long term. Simply because economic times are bad people are less willing to pay a high price for high earnings, and as soon as things are corrected, these stocks will bounce back pretty strongly. Don't let go of these.

So buy mid-large cap value domestic, european, pacific, and diversified emerging markets.

 

[teh_pwn]

I'm buying now, hoping for payoffs a few years down the road. This is not short term purchasing that I'm doing, at least, not intending to do. Buy low, sell high. We're low now, we might get lower, but I felt like LPX was low enough to purchase, and that it'd go back up enough a few years from now, that I'd be more than happy with taking such a risk.

Besides, dividend payments aren't so bad; LPX is something like 6.4% I believe, and WB is 9.4% which is incredible.

I don't think we're low. We're lower than we used to be. But we're still overpriced, especially in real estate, and we've got a real financial problem as a country. All of my Roth IRA contributions are foreign right now, and I'm thinking about tweaking my future 401k contributions to be about 75% foreign...the problem is the funds I have access to are severely limited with 401k.

But for long term investing your plan is good. It's much better than getting overly emotional and solidifying your losses (ahem, ether_snake, lol)

 

[Maxwell House]

I am not sure whether this will move markets lower or higher tomorrow, but it appears JPMorgan is very close to buying Bear Stearns (for a very very low price..below their book value):

JPMorgan Closer on Deal for Bear Stearns
Sunday March 16, 4:59 pm ET
JPMorgan Moves Closer to Deal to Buy Ailing Bear Stearns

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street is waiting for word that JPMorgan Chase & Co. reached an agreement to acquire wounded investment bank Bear Stearns Cos.
The two sides reportedly want a deal locked up before investors can put pressure on both of their stocks once Asian markets open for business. The Wall Street Journal reports the two banks were close to a deal for JPMorgan to buy Bear for $20 a share, or $2.2 billion.

The government, which on Friday helped facilitate a deal to provide funding to Bear Stearns through JPMorgan, continues to monitor the situation closely.

JPMorgan Closer on Deal for Bear Stearns

I feel bad for BSC stock holders. They just lost another $5+ per share if this is true. The rumor I am hearing about the buyout price is less than $23 per share. If it really is $20 per share, frigging OUCH.

 

[Maxwell House]

Wow, could be even worse than that:

JP Morgan Offering $15-$20 A Share for Bear Stearns JP Morgan Chase is offering to buy Bear Stearns for between $15 and $20 a share, CNBC has learned. Bear's board is currently meeting to discuss the proposal

JP Morgan Chase is offering to buy troubled investment bank Bear Stearns for between $15 and $20 a share, CNBC has learned.
Jin Lee / ASSOCIATED PRESS
Bear Stearns
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Bear's board is currently meeting to discuss the proposal, which based on the 118 million shares outstanding, would be valued at between $1.8 billion and $2.4 billion.

A deal in principle could be announced Sunday night, although the agreement would still need shareholder approval.

Here's what makes this a tricky situation: without shareholder approval, there is no real deal, so other banks and clients may be reluctant to deal with Bear on Monday unless it's part of a well capitalized JP Morgan.


Because of this, most executives inside Bear believe the Federal Reserve and Treasury will play some role in making sure there is a backstop if the shareholder approval isnt reached.

Of course, the deal itself could fall apart at the last minute, which would mean Bear would have to find another buyer, possibly JC Flowers.


An offer of $20 or less would be well below Bear's closing stock price of $30.85 on Friday, which was already down 47% for the day. As one senior Bear executive--who like most of the senior team is paid and continues to hold Bear stock--puts it: "based on the information i'm getting, lets just say I wont be retiring early."

A JP Morgan spokeswoman could not be reached for comment.

On Friday Bear Stearns Bear Stearns, the fifth largest U.S. investment bank, said a cash crunch forced it to turn to the Federal Reserve and JPMorgan JPMorgan Chase & CoJPM
for emergency funds, intensifying fears of a widening global credit crisis and driving its shares down as much as 50 percent. It also stepped up efforts to find a buyer.

On the same day S&P lowered its long-term counterparty credit rating on Bear to "BBB" from "A," and it placed long-and short term ratings on credit watch with negative implications.


Because of that S&P downgrade, bankers came to the conclusion that a deal must be done by Monday morning because no one on the street will trade or lend to Bear Stearns, which is rated a notch above junk bond levels. If the downgrade hadn't happened, Bear management would have had more time to work the Street for a deal, sources said.

As reported earlier, Bear Steans department heads met with officials of JP Morgan and JC Flowers on Saturday afternoon to give an overview of Bear's business divisions, including headcount and profit and loss positions.

The deal will likely lead to massive layoffs at Bear as JP Morgan consolidates businesses. But Bear isnt alone.

Sources tell CNBC that CS First Boston will be cutting jobs this week in its investment banking department and big cuts are looming at Merrill Lynch Merrill Lynch & Co where middle managers are bracing for cuts of 10 percent across the board. Also sources say Lehman Bothers Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc will likely be in for turbulence given its own holdings of risky commercial real estate bonds.

Bear, however, will dominate headlines on Monday. Aside from the financial fallout of a major firm disintegrating, there will likely be massive legal issues.

Executives inside Bear are bracing for major lawsuits from investors, and not just over the public comments made by the CEO Allen Schwartz and CFO Sam Molinaro to CNBC last week where they sought to calm the markets about Bear's financial status. There also is worry about lawsuits claiming general mismanagement of the firm by top executives, like Chairman Jimmy Cayne and others .

The biggest loser in all of this are the 14,000 employees of Bear. Employees own close to 25 percent of the firm, meaning top execs net worth has been nearly destroyed in recent months. And if the sale price is in the $15 to $20 a share range, these employees will be left with next to nothing.

$15 a share??? Wow.

 

[Javaman]

I don't think we're low. We're lower than we used to be. But we're still overpriced, especially in real estate, and we've got a real financial problem as a country. All of my Roth IRA contributions are foreign right now, and I'm thinking about tweaking my future 401k contributions to be about 75% foreign...the problem is the funds I have access to are severely limited with 401k.

But for long term investing your plan is good. It's much better than getting overly emotional and solidifying your losses (ahem, ether_snake, lol)

I'm taking the opposite stance with foreign investment, especially in China. I'm starting to get the feeling that a "perfect storm" is brewing that will really mess up investments in that area. Apart from the obvious of people reducing their spending on goods overall due to fears of a recession and not having as much equity in their houses to borrow on, there's also the increasing cost of oil due to speculation and the potential for inflation in the USA which will begin to bring manufacturing back to the US.

On the other side I'm skeptical that inflation is going to increase much in the USA. Look at how much money was available when credit was much easier to obtain and house prices were shooting up. That money is no longer available so perhaps the money that the fed is pumping into the economy is going to partially balance things out instead of adding strictly to inflation.

 

[Maxwell House]

JPMorgan just bought BSC for .05 shares per JP share, meaning about $1.80 per LOL.

Fed just cut rates by .25, and futures just went up big time. We are at +100 on the Dow right now.

I expect the Fed to cut another .75 to 1.00 Tuesday.

Edit: I take that back. It is a .25 cut to the discount rate.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...y/20080316a.htm

Press Release
Release Date: March 16, 2008

For immediate release

The Federal Reserve on Sunday announced two initiatives designed to bolster market liquidity and promote orderly market functioning. Liquid, well-functioning markets are essential for the promotion of economic growth.

First, the Federal Reserve Board voted unanimously to authorize the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to create a lending facility to improve the ability of primary dealers to provide financing to participants in securitization markets. This facility will be available for business on Monday, March 17. It will be in place for at least six months and may be extended as conditions warrant. Credit extended to primary dealers under this facility may be collateralized by a broad range of investment-grade debt securities. The interest rate charged on such credit will be the same as the primary credit rate, or discount rate, at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Second, the Federal Reserve Board unanimously approved a request by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to decrease the primary credit rate from 3-1/2 percent to 3-1/4 percent, effective immediately. This step lowers the spread of the primary credit rate over the Federal Open Market Committee’s target federal funds rate to 1/4 percentage point. The Board also approved an increase in the maximum maturity of primary credit loans to 90 days from 30 days.

The Board also approved the financing arrangement announced by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and The Bear Stearns Companies Inc.

Edit again: LOL, futures gain was short lived. Futures are about to go red.

 

[MobiusPigeon]

wtf? so the company lost like 90% of its value in 2 days? :lol holy crap.

 

[Maxwell House]

Oh oh..futures dropping like a rock....Dow futures now at -165, Gold has jumped to $1,019.50. The dollar is TANKING...

Nice job Fed....

 

[_Frank_]

i bought a gold company on thursday. IMG at 8.17. That's the only stock left in my portfolio. Glad i bought it and cashed out everything else!

 

[Javaman]

wtf? so the company lost like 90% of its value in 2 days? :lol holy crap.

Hopefully after the Enron Snafu, these employees were at least a bit diversified. O

 

[Javaman]

i bought a gold company on thursday. IMG at 8.17. That's the only stock left in my portfolio. Glad i bought it and cashed out everything else!

With gold at an all time high, now may not be a good time to invest in it. Remember what happened after the early 80s? The chart below doesn't even show the true extent of the recent spike.

The price took 20 years to recover. Once the stock market bounces back this time, gold and gold companies could very well drop like a rock.

 

[_Frank_]

lol, thats a 40 years chart.....And gold shows absolutelty no signs of a fallout. That's the strongest sector right now...

Anyways i do short term trading, 25-40 trades a months....i dont care about charts like this, its completly irrevelant since its a way too long horizon of time to even bother.

Good luck for monday

 

[Javaman]

lol, thats a 40 years chart.....

Things haven't been very interesting until the last 40 years.

Here's a better one with more recent prices...

To me this just screams gold bubble.

 

[Ether_Snake]

But for long term investing your plan is good. It's much better than getting overly emotional and solidifying your losses (ahem, ether_snake, lol)

What losses? I've sold nothing at a loss so far, and made $1,300 on TTWO (bought 140 at 15, sold at 25.75), and have $1,000 on ATVI (bought 140 at 17).

Anything I have is long term. The only thing that is hurting me is IMMR, which is a mistake I made that I wouldn't do anymore.

EDIT: And for sure, the more interest rates are cut, the less impact it has, except outright negative impacts. Next rates cuts will send the markets lower. It's like being prescribed a drug; its proof you're sick. People will fricking bailout.

 

[YYZ]

What kind of process do you have to go through to open an account for stocks? I'm assuming everyone here is American?

 

[Ether_Snake]

What kind of process do you have to go through to open an account for stocks? I'm assuming everyone here is American?

You would contact your bank. But you want to sell stock you already have (Wal Mart I think), so can't you just do business directly with a broker? No idea really, someone help him, he's been asking for a couple of pages now