New Study On Returns - Buy and Hold Outperforms Day Trading
“A new study finds that active trading also significantly increases the volatility of a portfolio. That is, market timers actually assume much more risk to get those lower returns, compared with investors who simply buy and hold investments.
Although active investors tend to “chase stability”—they are trying to minimize volatility by market timing—they end up doing the exact opposite, according to the research, as they invest in stocks after past volatility is low and before future volatility is high. The end result is high capital exposure when volatility is increasing. In particular, Drs. Dichev and Zheng find that “the volatility of the actual investor experience is nearly 50% higher than the corresponding volatility of stock returns.”
“Their findings reveal the full cost of active trading. Such investors are chasing safe winners, but they’re actually getting risky losers. This means that active investors, on average, assume much more risk to get lower returns.
So why do so many individual investors continue to engage in active trading and market timing despite evidence showing it is often counterproductive? Researchers who have explored this question suggest that some investors—particularly men—are convinced the results don’t apply to them. Others simply enjoy playing the market; trying to pick winners is more fun than sticking with long-term investments, probably for the same reason that many people enjoy blackjack and slot machines.”