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[StreetsofBeige]

Was thinking about this today and it makes the most sense to me. They will ride out the hype, keep the stock at a steady price between $300-$400, eat the smaller mounting losses/costs, and hope that people become impatient and sell, thus minimizing their overall damage. I think if they can drag this out another week or two, they can avoid the potential catastrophic losses they might otherwise have faced.

I wonder if a story will come out later at some point which is able to estimate something like. We hear about the big funds with short positions, but not all of them.

GME current price: $300

Per Retail investor going short
- Avg short price $114
- Avg number of shares 250

Per Institution/hedge fund going short
- Avg short price $32
- Avg number of shares 500,000

 

[ManofOne]

I don't follow call and put options, but according to you charts with that 5:1, are you able to ballpark how many puts are short termers expiring in the next month or two and how many are way out later in the year? And what the general put strike price is heavily skewed to?

If it's lots of short term puts at let's say $200 or less, there will be lots of fucked people if this $300 price sticks.

Not right now but again as I was telling @Zefah, I think people are hedging their bets now through whatever mechanism and technique would allow them.

For example buy a call and a put and benefit from the whatever direction the stock goes. That why the short interest could be so high.

I could be wrong and its just a lot of dumb ppl playing naked and just shorting the stock without any hedge.

When you check Melvin's SEC filings I didn't find any other positions other than this.

 

[Delf]

Since Robinhood is a shit show what is everyone looking to move to? As I asked in the crypto thread looking to also fund something I can dabble in a little also.

I'm currently not able to make big buy ins (looking to wrap up my last remaining 14k in debt this year) but would like something I could place $5 to 20, and a max $100 week in till at least next fall when I'm out of the debt woods.

 

[ManofOne]

Since Robinhood is a shit show what is everyone looking to move to? As I asked in the crypto thread looking to also fund something I can dabble in a little also.

I'm currently not able to make big buy ins (looking to wrap up my last remaining 14k in debt this year) but would like something I could place $5 to 20, and a max $100 week in till at least next fall when I'm out of the debt woods.

I think whoever you move to you're going to get the same result. Liquidity providers probably reigned in platforms like Robin Hood because of the volatility. If I am not mistaken most of the companies that reigned it in are Payment to the Order flow type companies.

 

[Fox Mulder]

Since Robinhood is a shit show what is everyone looking to move to? As I asked in the crypto thread looking to also fund something I can dabble in a little also.

I'm currently not able to make big buy ins (looking to wrap up my last remaining 14k in debt this year) but would like something I could place $5 to 20, and a max $100 week in till at least next fall when I'm out of the debt woods.

Fidelity was easy to set up for stock trading since I already have a 401k through them with my job.

 

[Dynasty8]

If I have somewhere around $150k in my savings account, what would you guys recommend I do with it in terms of investing? I already have an emergency fund set up for myself, but I want to start having my money (that's been earning jackshit in savings) start making me more money in the safest and most proven way possible. Would you guys recommend ETFs? Trying to figure out everything works... Just getting into all this. Thanks.

 

[ManofOne]

If I have somewhere around $150k in my savings account, what would you guys recommend I do with it in terms of investing? I already have an emergency fund set up for myself, but I want to start having my money (that's been earning jackshit in savings) start making me more money in the safest and most proven way possible. Would you guys recommend ETFs? Trying to figure out everything works... Just getting into all this. Thanks.

You want to manage it yourself or you want a fiduciary?

 

[finowns]

If I have somewhere around $150k in my savings account, what would you guys recommend I do with it in terms of investing? I already have an emergency fund set up for myself, but I want to start having my money (that's been earning jackshit in savings) start making me more money in the safest and most proven way possible. Would you guys recommend ETFs? Trying to figure out everything works... Just getting into all this. Thanks.

You should generally pick stock you think will be around in 30 years google, Amazon, Microsoft. Or pick VOO which is fairly safe index fund meaning they have a bunch of tech stock that is in the s&p 500 you’ll get a better return than a savings account.

 

[mango drank]

If I have somewhere around $150k in my savings account, what would you guys recommend I do with it in terms of investing? I already have an emergency fund set up for myself, but I want to start having my money (that's been earning jackshit in savings) start making me more money in the safest and most proven way possible. Would you guys recommend ETFs? Trying to figure out everything works... Just getting into all this. Thanks.

This is a really good intro book on passive investing and the very basics of the stock market. It's a quick read. You can skip the first few chapters about general budgeting if you already know that stuff. The stuff on the stock market is a good intro to what you'll be getting yourself into.

Amazon.com

 

[Dynasty8]

You want to manage it yourself or you want a fiduciary?

Myself.

You should generally pick stock you think will be around in 30 years google, Amazon, Microsoft. Or pick VOO which is fairly safe index fund meaning they have a bunch of tech stock that is in the s&p 500 you’ll get a better return than a savings account.

Yeah, that's what I have planned out so far. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Nio, Nike, SoFi, and a few others I have listed as ones I want to keep long term. I want to put at least $100k into proven index funds as well, VOO being one of them. Should I do multiple index funds or stick with VOO? I was also looking into AARK and the return on that has been pretty amazing.

This is a really good intro book on passive investing and the very basics of the stock market. It's a quick read. You can skip the first few chapters about general budgeting if you already know that stuff. The stuff on the stock market is a good intro to what you'll be getting yourself into.

Amazon.com

Thanks. Will definitely be checking that out.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

Just sharing some fun from WSB:

 

[NecrosaroIII]

What is going to stop a hudge fund from shorting the stock when it's 300-500, then banking on the stock dropping off (which it will)

 

[ManofOne]

Myself.
.

Check out passive index funds with expense ratios below 0.5. Try some dividend funds for example that are consistent earners above an annual rate of return of 20.0% or 25.0%. Dividend yield above the average rate of inflation so you maintain a real rate of return (in terms of dividends) above the inflation rate.

There are loads of ETFs that fit this bill. Tech ETFs like VGT etc are a good bet. Or you can just buy low vol stocks. Appl and MSFT have around 1.0% dividend yield and offer an average return of 35.0% per year (not guaranteed to continue into perpetuity of course.)

When I get a chance I can screen shot you a list of ETFs that fit the bill alongside growth stocks.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

What is going to stop a hudge fund from shorting the stock when it's 300-500, then banking on the stock dropping off (which it will)

Also probably worth assuming they can see the sweet spot for where most people's limit sell and stop loss orders are. I'm betting these fuckers get Robinhood and WeBull, etc. user data fed to them in real time.

 

[Dynasty8]

Check out passive index funds with expense ratios below 0.5. Try some dividend funds for example that are consistent earners above an annual rate of return of 20.0% or 25.0%. Dividend yield above the average rate of inflation so you maintain a real rate of return (in terms of dividends) above the inflation rate.

There are loads of ETFs that fit this bill. Tech ETFs like VGT etc are a good bet. Or you can just buy low vol stocks. Appl and MSFT have around 1.0% dividend yield and offer an average return of 35.0% per year (not guaranteed to continue into perpetuity of course.)

When I get a chance I can screen shot you a list of ETFs that fit the bill alongside growth stocks.

Thanks man, would greatly appreciate it.

 

[ricardo_sousa11]

AMC and GME will go insane on monday

 

[Tesseract]

An open letter to the GameStop army on Reddit

If you end up gambling and losing, don't cost yourself even more money by walking away from long-term investing.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[ManofOne]

Thanks man, would greatly appreciate it.

Just a reminder, past performance is not an indicator of future. Cloud, Cannabis, Retail, Semiconductor, Inflation Indexed Bonds and Green ETFs are hot right now. Dunno how long it will last.

 

[Dynasty8]

Just a reminder, past performance is not an indicator of future. Cloud, Cannabis, Retail, Semiconductor, Inflation Indexed Bonds and Green ETFs are hot right now. Dunno how long it will last.

Awesome, thanks for that.

Out of curiosity, what would be the best way to allocate my savings toward these ETFs? Say if I'm looking to invest with $150k, should I distribute evenly or would you recommend going a little extra on the ones that are hot right now?

Also, as far as taxes go (California), my goal is to leave majority of it in the ETFs for 12+ months. Would I only pay taxes when I am ready to sell? Thanks, I'm still new to this.

 

[Taxexemption]

Awesome, thanks for that.

Out of curiosity, what would be the best way to allocate my savings toward these ETFs? Say if I'm looking to invest with $150k, should I distribute evenly or would you recommend going a little extra on the ones that are hot right now?

Also, as far as taxes go (California), my goal is to leave majority of it in the ETFs for 12+ months. Would I only pay taxes when I am ready to sell? Thanks, I'm still new to this.

On the tax question, until you sell you should only be paying taxes on the dividends. Until then your gains are only theoretical. Ocasionally a politician will suggest that we should tax unrealized gains (when you haven't sold yet) but so far that hasn't happened.


As for investments, these are tricky questions. Something could be hot right now and go down in a few weeks. It's really hard to give advice and even though I regularly put a lot of my own money in etfs I wouldn't want to give anyone advice as I'm not licensed to do that, and would also feel bad if my advice didn't work out.


I keep a list of etfs and REITs that I want to be in, and if one of them is down in price I would be more likely to invest in that one. Unfortunately right now a lot of my etfs look on the high side so there is no obvious one to invest in, so I'm kind of picking at random and trying to diversify.


For anyone curious, I personally like some of the following etfs

SPHD
XLU
VYM

and the following REIT

WY


Please do your own research and come to your own conclusions though. I'm not making any kind of recommendation, I'm just mentioning things that I personally like.

 

[West Texas CEO]

AMC stock next week, we goin to tha

 

[ManofOne]

Awesome, thanks for that.

Out of curiosity, what would be the best way to allocate my savings toward these ETFs? Say if I'm looking to invest with $150k, should I distribute evenly or would you recommend going a little extra on the ones that are hot right now?

Also, as far as taxes go (California), my goal is to leave majority of it in the ETFs for 12+ months. Would I only pay taxes when I am ready to sell? Thanks, I'm still new to this.

It depends on your preference. So if you want to go with one that is likely to earn you the fastest and shortest, you would weigh your portfolio heavy on that end. Or if you want a steady rise that is not so volatile and would give you enough time to adjust, you can weigh your portfolio more to that end. For example 70% of your portfolio goes towards stocks with a beta over 1.5 and 30% would go to a beta around 1, this would give you a portoflio weighted more toward volatility and high returns ( high returns are not always guaranteed).

Also some ETFs share the same risk profile so you should check the correlation and composition of each etf that you’re investing in to make sure as to reduce of downside. So for example let’s say you invest in a semiconductor etf and a technology etf 50/50, both are exposed to how the wider NASDAQ performs so, if the NASDAQ falls then they fall as well and often at times not by a proportional amount. Or both etfs can be exposed and shared the same risk depending on what stocks they carry in them. For example both ETFs could have Microsoft but one might have an exposure of 20% and the other an exposure of 12%

So your portfolio weight should be based on your expected return vs your bench mark return. Assuming you’re investing 100% in U.S equities then choose the S&P 500 as your bench mark. Its average return is around 15.0% per annum over the last 10 years (un adjusted). So your excess return would be the return of your portfolio minus the return of the S&P 500 (unadjusted for inflation)

See the post below yours it’s very informative T Taxexemption is right. I’m not familiar with California tax law but I assume they don’t tax unrealized gains and only dividend. Then you of course have your federal capital gains taxes

if you’re living abroad they charge a withholding tax on dividends.

 

[West Texas CEO]

Are hedge funds still shorting GME at these artificially inflated values?

Or, are there just a few remaining shorts from before this all started that have refused to cave?

I’m just trying to understand where we stand now.

#Diamond hands
#Apes
#Rocket
#Moon
#Tendies

 

[ManofOne]

Or, are there just a few remaining shorts from before this all started that have refused to cave?

I’m just trying to understand where we stand now.

#Diamond hands
#Apes
#Rocket
#Moon
#Tendies

From what I read the old has been replaced by the new or it could be the old who funded the new to recover their losses. Except they’re being smarter about it by hedging better.

 

[SpartanN92]

From what I read the old has been replaced by the new or it could be the old who funded the new to recover their losses. Except they’re being smarter about it by hedging better.

WSB seems to think that the longer they hold the more guaranteed the proposition is. The way I see it is the hedgefunds have spent all weekend hiring the smartest people in the world to come up with a plan.
If Robinhood hadn’t pulled their stunt on Thursday I’d probably still be in, but now that I’m out and have post sale clarity I’m really doubting that WSB can truly pull this off.
At what point does the SEC, or the Whitehouse shut this down? Or whomever hosts Robinhoods servers “accidentally” has an outage?
There will be an institutional level hammer that comes down on this, the market will not be allowed to operate organically here.

 

[ManofOne]

Melvin Capital Management, the hedge fund that has borne the brunt of losses from the soaring stock prices of heavily shorted stocks recently, lost 53% in January, according to people familiar with the firm.

Melvin was founded by Gabe Plotkin, a former star portfolio manager for hedge-fund titan Steven A. Cohen. It started the year with about $12.5 billion and now runs more than $8 billion. The current figure includes $2.75 billion in emergency funds Citadel LLC, its partners and Mr. Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management injected into the hedge fund last Monday.

As part of the deal, they got noncontrolling revenue shares in Melvin for three years. So far, Citadel, its partners and Point72 have lost money on the deal, though the precise scope of the loss was unclear Sunday.

Melvin has massively de-risked its portfolio, a client said. People familiar with the hedge fund said its leverage ratio—the value of its assets compared with its capital from investors—was the lowest it has been since Melvin’s 2014 start. They also said the company’s position-level liquidity, or its ability to exit securities in its portfolio easily, had increased significantly.

 

[Relativ9]

Staying far away from GME at the current prices, but just got a bunch of Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.OL) because rumor has it they'll get a bail out from the Norwegian and possibly the Irish governments which will likely mean a steady but slow climb.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

Crazy theory from a WSB poster:

 

[Tesseract]

book smart but still eats crayons, what a legend

 

[longdi]

what should we do with GME on monday?
set a sell limit at 500 or 1000?
it does not make sense the price keep going up.

I have bad feeling it will crash, black monday.

 

[LisaMariaMartin]

what should we do with GME on monday?
set a sell limit at 500 or 1000?
it does not make sense the price keep going up.

I have bad feeling it will crash, black monday.

Put mine at 5k

 

[ipukespiders]

what should we do with GME on monday?
set a sell limit at 500 or 1000?
it does not make sense the price keep going up.

I have bad feeling it will crash, black monday.

There will be suicides.

 

[ManofOne]

I’m curious as to how many ppl end up buying the options on Friday expiration.

Monday is going to be a nail biter.

 

[longdi]

Put mine at 5k

i dont think even bitcoin sees such a jump ever

 

[CrankyJay™]

There will be suicides.

And tendies.

 

[Tesseract]

There will be suicides.

probably

yolo

 

[LisaMariaMartin]

i dont think even bitcoin sees such a jump ever

They said the same thing about bitcoin brother

 

[12Goblins]

 

[ManofOne]

So read an interesting piece on GME not becoming a contagion but I’ll argue the opposite. It already spreading to other highly shorted stocks and commodities like sliver there is also a rally. I think you’re seeing the extent of irrational exuberance being unleashed on the market in an uncontrollable way. Market Markers will be force to consolidate their positions in order to preserve returns or remain delta neutral especially in a market where returns are so abnormally high already that further squeezing any added movement risk the market becoming so severely over heated we could see another “Black Monday” scenario where everything is just sold in one day. Market markers may choose not participate at all.

Now it may not happen now since the most heavily shorted companies on the market only represent 0.001% of a 43 trillion dollar market but if it continues even to anything representing a short you could see that shift to from 0.001% to 5.0%, 10% etc.

What you guys think?

 

[Reizo Ryuu]

you could see that shift to from 0.001% to 5.0%, 10% etc.

What does this mean? Major long investment stocks go down and any 50%+ shorted stock go up irrationally?

If something like that happened, the losses would be gargantuan right?

 

[ManofOne]

What does this mean? Major long investment stocks go down and any 50%+ shorted stock go up irrationally?

If something like that happened, the losses would be gargantuan right?

no that total short interest in the companies being targeted by the Reddit squad represents just that fraction of the total market. But they could start targeting a greater portion of the market and it could spread to more retail traders

Edit- like creating this massive group think mentality that would just push asset prices further into bubble territory at a faster pace

 

[mango drank]

Question: is market-timing trading behavior punished at the brokerage level, or at the fund level (based on individual fund prospectuses)?

E.g., I own some VTSAX, through Vanguard as the brokerage. A long while back, I sold some of it, then I tried to buy back in a week later. Vanguard slapped my hand and said I shouldn't be trying to time the market. Was this because of VTSAX specifically, or because it's a blanket Vanguard policy to discourage and enforce their anti-market-timing philosophy? Do they apply this to their own funds only, or to any and all funds I own through them?

I ask because I want to buy some ARK and iShares funds, and in general I've learned not to be panicky with my holdings, but in case I want to do some rapid-fire sells/buys on those in the future, am I better off buying those funds through Vanguard, or through Fidelity?

 

[mckmas8808]

Maybe the deposit from your bank account hasn’t cleared?

Yep that's what they are claiming. Funny I can still buy stocks, just not dogecoins.

You and I are in nearly identical positions. I pulled out at $10k profit yesterday ($341 per share) and it’s 100% because I lost trust in Robinhood.

I LOVE reading stories like this.

Who says I'm not. Other ways to short or long other than buying the short or long on a specific stock. Look at ETFs like GAMR, RETL for long positions. You could buy the opposite fund like RETS.

GAMR and RETL have been on a tear lately. I think you've talked me into putting some money into those on Monday. I'll see how the first couple hours play out tomorrow.

I’m getting out of doge. I think

DOGE seems to go up when people can't buy on the weekends or at nights.

Check out passive index funds with expense ratios below 0.5. Try some dividend funds for example that are consistent earners above an annual rate of return of 20.0% or 25.0%. Dividend yield above the average rate of inflation so you maintain a real rate of return (in terms of dividends) above the inflation rate.

There are loads of ETFs that fit this bill. Tech ETFs like VGT etc are a good bet. Or you can just buy low vol stocks. Appl and MSFT have around 1.0% dividend yield and offer an average return of 35.0% per year (not guaranteed to continue into perpetuity of course.)

When I get a chance I can screen shot you a list of ETFs that fit the bill alongside growth stocks.

Do people buy ETFs to hold them for a few months in order to get a quick 40% return (when it happens)? Or would that never make sense to do?

 

[ManofOne]

Question: is market-timing trading behavior punished at the brokerage level, or at the fund level (based on individual fund prospectuses)?

E.g., I own some VTSAX, through Vanguard as the brokerage. A long while back, I sold some of it, then I tried to buy back in a week later. Vanguard slapped my hand and said I shouldn't be trying to time the market. Was this because of VTSAX specifically, or because it's a blanket Vanguard policy to discourage and enforce their anti-market-timing philosophy? Do they apply this to their own funds only, or to any and all funds I own through them?

I ask because I want to buy some ARK and iShares funds, and in general I've learned not to be panicky with my holdings, but in case I want to do some rapid-fire sells/buys on those in the future, am I better off buying those funds through Vanguard, or through Fidelity?

If you’re trading violates the industry regulations you get a notice via their online trading platform.

 

[ManofOne]

Do people buy ETFs to hold them for a few months in order to get a quick 40% return (when it happens)? Or would that never make sense to do?

Yep ppl do this especially leverage etfs. Which is a no no for me at times. You gotta be careful which ETFs you buy at times Bc people have a very low understanding of the asset structure of the etf. Look at USO for example when oil prices went negative

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Yep ppl do this especially leverage etfs. Which is a no no for me. You gotta be careful which ETFs you buy at times Bc people have a very low understanding of the asset structure of the etf. Look at USO for example when oil prices went negative

I never follow how commodities are traded.

At that time of weird oil prices, there must had been a time during the day it was trading at a penny or nickel.

So is it that literal that someone could have bought oil contracts for 2 cents, and then sell them for $20 when it rebounded later? 1000x their money? Or is it more complicated than that?

 

[Linearskillz]

Question: is market-timing trading behavior punished at the brokerage level, or at the fund level (based on individual fund prospectuses)?

E.g., I own some VTSAX, through Vanguard as the brokerage. A long while back, I sold some of it, then I tried to buy back in a week later. Vanguard slapped my hand and said I shouldn't be trying to time the market. Was this because of VTSAX specifically, or because it's a blanket Vanguard policy to discourage and enforce their anti-market-timing philosophy? Do they apply this to their own funds only, or to any and all funds I own through them?

I ask because I want to buy some ARK and iShares funds, and in general I've learned not to be panicky with my holdings, but in case I want to do some rapid-fire sells/buys on those in the future, am I better off buying those funds through Vanguard, or through Fidelity?

Mutual funds get cranky if you try trading them too frequently. Not sure about in the US but here in Canada there's generally a penalty if you try to redeem units within 90 days of purchasing them (within reason).

You could use the equivalent ETF (VTI) if you wanted more freedom.

 

[ManofOne]

I never follow how commodities are traded.

At that time of weird oil prices, there must had been a time during the day it was trading at a penny or nickel.

So is it that literal that someone could have bought oil contracts for 2 cents, and then sell them for $20 when it rebounded later? 1000x their money? Or is it more complicated than that?

For USO it was more complicated than that but essentially yes you can do that. Most of the time futures trading involves trading the contract without the desire to own the underlying asset. Similar to options trading.

I remember a Goldman Sachs commodities unit making over a billion on that carnage.

 

[mango drank]

Mutual funds get cranky if you try trading them too frequently. Not sure about in the US but here in Canada there's generally a penalty if you try to redeem units within 90 days of purchasing them (within reason).

You could use the equivalent ETF (VTI) if you wanted more freedom.

Oh snap, I didn't realize ETFs weren't as restricted as regular funds. Awesome, good to know. That brings me back to my other question: am I better off buying and selling various non-Vanguard ETFs through Vanguard or through Fidelity? I guess Fidelity wins by default, since Vanguard is geared more for long-term investing, not trading. Or in this case it doesn't matter either way?

 

[Tesseract]

~