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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Raven117

Raven117

Member
SpartanN92 said:
Well...All my Disney gains gone in a matter of 30 seconds (and I have yet to figure out why).

I’m taking a two week break. Need to clear my head. I’m normally pretty good at picking small winners and making a $100, $200 etc while losing very little.
I’ve done nothing but break even this month.
I think my objectivity was affected by making so much on GME. I’ll make money in one consistent area, and lose every bit on a WSB chase.
I’ll keep watching but I’m gonna chill for a bit.
Click to expand...
Good idea. Emotion is the absolute worst thing to trade on. I put the kabash on my trades over the last few weeks and just used PaperMoney trades to see how off I was....Sure enough, if I had invested real money I would have lost some money.

Im heavily invested in long term stuff, so that is all fine. I have, however, decided to take a much different approach to my short terms trades, going to hit the books, and really put in the work to pick my own stocks. Trading on internet "tips" is for suckers.

In other words, for the love of gawd, don't go chasing meme stock on reddit.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
SpartanN92 said:
Well...All my Disney gains gone in a matter of 30 seconds (and I have yet to figure out why).

I’m taking a two week break. Need to clear my head. I’m normally pretty good at picking small winners and making a $100, $200 etc while losing very little.
I’ve done nothing but break even this month.
I think my objectivity was affected by making so much on GME. I’ll make money in one consistent area, and lose every bit on a WSB chase.
I’ll keep watching but I’m gonna chill for a bit.
Click to expand...

Did you diversify? DIS is a great company and should continue yielding benefits with the reopening.
 
Myths

Myths

Member
Some interesting rotation here... I’d been eyeing Seanergy and TOPS over the past month. Damn. At least I didn’t lose anything having not gotten into them.

From Pharma to Weed... now Oil and Energy.
 
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Delf

Delf

Banned
Fictive said:
Some interesting rotation here... I’d been eyeing Seanergy and TOPS over the past month. Damn. At least I didn’t lose anything having not gotten into them.

From Pharma to Weed... now Oil and Energy.
Click to expand...

I dropped all my Pharma today. I broke even pretty much.

Now into...Uranium/Power/Mining.

Went with URG, DNN, NAK, and GTE.
Got a buy order in for UEC if it drops down a bit more.

Gonna see if I can recoup my losses by next week riding this train.
 
Myths

Myths

Member
Delf said:
I dropped all my Pharma today. I broke even pretty much.

Now into...Uranium/Power/Mining.

Went with URG, DNN, NAK, and GTE.
Got a buy order in for UEC if it drops down a bit more.

Gonna see if I can recoup my losses by next week riding this train.
Click to expand...
Was just looking at URG. GTE... I had a stop loss on. I know the weekend is going to be long with Monday out the picture so there are some reds across the board.
 
God Enel

God Enel

Member
ManofOne said:
Lol, i've heard about this stock in the meme stock universe. I've never done any analysis on it thou.


Does you broker allow you to trade 690D?
Click to expand...
Yes I can buy it (i don’t even know what 690D is 🤣). Here in Germany I can buy it. Is it something regional?
 
SpartanN92

SpartanN92

Banned
ManofOne said:
Did you diversify? DIS is a great company and should continue yielding benefits with the reopening.
Click to expand...
Yeah I’m fine. I just lost the Disney gains.
My objectivity is off right now on short term stuff. I’m holding DIS long for sure though, just disappointed to see several hundred dollars in gains disappear from yesterday (I know it happens, it’s small time money, and it will come back eventually).

I just need a small break. I basically didn’t sleep or eat for almost 2 weeks straight during the GME saga and I don’t think I’ve really recovered fully from that 😂

I’ll hop back in soon. Just a small break to recharge. I’ll still monitor my long term positions but no more small quick plays for a few weeks. Again I’m normally pretty good at small $100-$200 profits but the past 2 weeks I’ve botched nearly all of them thus offsetting my gains on my longer stuff.

I’ll keep posting here, but I’m not gonna touch Robinhood for a couple of weeks.
 
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Nikana

Nikana

Go Go Neo Rangers!
SpartanN92 said:
Yeah I’m fine. I just lost the Disney gains.
My objectivity is off right now on short term stuff. I’m holding DIS long for sure though, just disappointed to see several hundred dollars in gains disappear from yesterday (I know it happens, it’s small time money, and it will come back eventually).

I just need a small break. I basically didn’t sleep or eat for almost 2 weeks straight during the GME saga and I don’t think I’ve really recovered fully from that 😂

I’ll hop back in soon. Just a small break to recharge. I’ll still monitor my long term positions but no more small quick plays for a few weeks. Again I’m normally pretty good at small $100-$200 profits but the past 2 weeks I’ve botched nearly all of them thus offsetting my gains on my longer stuff.

I’ll keep posting here, but I’m not gonna touch Robinhood for a couple of weeks.
Click to expand...
I feel you there. I basically have one stack of shares in one company that I avent broke even yet on but I plan on long playing but other than that I pulled out everything. I just need a break and will reenter with a fresh mind as well some more education from some of the books suggested here.
 
SpartanN92

SpartanN92

Banned
Nikana said:
I feel you there. I basically have one stack of shares in one company that I avent broke even yet on but I plan on long playing but other than that I pulled out everything. I just need a break and will reenter with a fresh mind as well some more education from some of the books suggested here.
Click to expand...
Sometimes a temporary break is exactly what is needed. I've been trading for a few years, I'm not an expert but not exactly a novice either.
I had the biggest win of my entire life last month with GME and I've been chasing that high again for the past two weeks and I've made several stupid decisions since. Just have to walk away and clear my head.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
SpartanN92 said:
Yeah I’m fine. I just lost the Disney gains.
My objectivity is off right now on short term stuff. I’m holding DIS long for sure though, just disappointed to see several hundred dollars in gains disappear from yesterday (I know it happens, it’s small time money, and it will come back eventually).

I just need a small break. I basically didn’t sleep or eat for almost 2 weeks straight during the GME saga and I don’t think I’ve really recovered fully from that 😂

I’ll hop back in soon. Just a small break to recharge. I’ll still monitor my long term positions but no more small quick plays for a few weeks. Again I’m normally pretty good at small $100-$200 profits but the past 2 weeks I’ve botched nearly all of them thus offsetting my gains on my longer stuff.

I’ll keep posting here, but I’m not gonna touch Robinhood for a couple of weeks.
Click to expand...

The three month correlation between S&P 500 and Disney is 0.87. Plus a few issues in guidance.
 
BigBooper

BigBooper

Member
ManofOne said:
Also want to share some interesting research with you guys. About how passive index funds are distorting the market.

The author name is Micheal Greene and he wrote this very intelligent article on the aggregate effect of a stock's market capitalization based on the multiplier effect.

What is being proposed here is that for every dollar an active manager puts to work it as a $2.50 effect on the aggregate market capitalization.

However for every dollar a passive fund receives the aggregate effect increases by $17.00.

So passive funds are destroying price discovery, they will continue to buy as long as they receive money, thus their aggregate effect on the market will worsen as the number of passive funds grow.

You're already seeing that effect via ARK funds.


So my advice is don't go all in, keep some white powder in hand. You don't need to make all your returns or become a millionaire b/c the eventual down market will provide a perfect buying opportunity when it comes.



I HIGHLY RECOMMEND READING THE ARTICLE - IT IS VERY INTERESTING.

https://www.logicafunds.com/policy-in-a-world-of-pandemics
Click to expand...
Just finished reading it, and still processing it. It's hard to know what conclusions to make out of it. What does it matter if everyone's a millionaire if bread costs 10000 a loaf? I don't know. So many thought avenues to follow from that.

You could also reason that the earlier you get in, the better off you'll be. Even if value is self inflating, at least you'll be on a bigger pile of rubble if it pops. Very interesting.

Aside from the catastrophe scenarios, how do you value momentum? Reddit mentions and Google searches? What if Reddit is cancelled because they like free speech too much? Does positive trading momentum outweigh negative reality needs?

Ah, my brain's flipping loops today.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
BigBooper said:
Just finished reading it, and still processing it. It's hard to know what conclusions to make out of it. What does it matter if everyone's a millionaire if bread costs 10000 a loaf? I don't know. So many thought avenues to follow from that.

You could also reason that the earlier you get in, the better off you'll be. Even if value is self inflating, at least you'll be on a bigger pile of rubble if it pops. Very interesting.

Aside from the catastrophe scenarios, how do you value momentum? Reddit mentions and Google searches? What if Reddit is cancelled because they like free speech too much? Does positive trading momentum outweigh negative reality needs?

Ah, my brain's flipping loops today.
Click to expand...

I think for the sake of those reading the argument lets try to simply it a bit.

Firstly, you can value momentum based on factor models similar to Fama French but there is an expansion of risk model itself, that not just uses fundamental data but economic data as well. Also arguments placed forward more recently suggest momentum stocks are highly correlated so movements under these conditions suggest that all momentum trade would move in a positive direction.

But typically value and momentum have negative correlation and investors often shift in between the two.


The return on value right now is alot better than momentum trades right now so it would suggest that the market will continue shifting higher as the market adjust between the two.
 
Honey Bunny

Honey Bunny

Member
Does anyone know a website where you can find which brokers hold a specific share? Or do you just have to check each one for the ticker yourself.

MoO you said you like Riot, I'm in Argo too, check them out.

Also Western Digital has been doing solidly well for me for 3 months, everyone check them out if you haven't.
 
Last edited:
GHG

GHG

Member
Sold out of 90% of my ACIU shares today when it was at $9. Still lost a ton because I bought at 11 yesterday but I'm holding the rest just in case it decides to do a SAVA at some point. It hurts but it's better to move on and forget about it.

Made some nice intraday profits on NEXI and TLRY today. Seems to be very quiet now so think it's time to call it before I do something stupid and ruin myself.
 
BigBooper

BigBooper

Member
ManofOne said:
I think for the sake of those reading the argument lets try to simply it a bit.

Firstly, you can value momentum based on factor models similar to Fama French but there is an expansion of risk model itself, that not just uses fundamental data but economic data as well. Also arguments placed forward more recently suggest momentum stocks are highly correlated so movements under these conditions suggest that all momentum trade would move in a positive direction.

But typically value and momentum have negative correlation and investors often shift in between the two.


The return on value right now is alot better than momentum trades right now so it would suggest that the market will continue shifting higher as the market adjust between the two.
Click to expand...
I guess the old standard investments of land and physical precious metals are still good options for retirement's sake. I made good on the biggest momentum trade of all time, bought GME at $27, sold at $240, but I've also been value investing + bull market= happy me.

The really long stable plays I haven't been too into though. My future's a Russian roulette game...stage 4 cancer, so I've been more aggressive than I'd probably normally be. Since I made that good hit on GME though, I want to put a lot of it into long term because who knows. I may pick up rental property. So thanks a lot for your advice, and others. Anyways...that was a tangent.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
W
BigBooper said:
I guess the old standard investments of land and physical precious metals are still good options for retirement's sake. I made good on the biggest momentum trade of all time, bought GME at $27, sold at $240, but I've also been value investing + bull market= happy me.
Click to expand...

Congrats man. That GME play is often really good for those who moved early. Wished I made that play but I'm boring and I'm sorry to hear about the stage 4 cancer.
 
GHG

GHG

Member
CCIV rocketed just before close. I bought more. Time will tell if that turns out to be a wise decision but I'm YOLOing on this one.
 
Omega Supreme Holopsicon

Omega Supreme Holopsicon

Banned
ManofOne said:
I put a little money into RIOT. Seems to be doing well - $5000 investment
Click to expand...
IT seems to be tied to bitcoin price. If bitcoin price booms it usually booms if bitcoin price falls it usually falls. Very big dip and big rises.

Guess it depends on what happens in the future, some believe this is a new bull year for bitcoin others believe Bitcoin is gonna collapse any moment.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
OSC said:
IT seems to be tied to bitcoin price. If bitcoin price booms it usually booms if bitcoin price falls it usually falls. Very big dip and big rises.

Guess it depends on what happens in the future, some believe this is a new bull year for bitcoin others believe Bitcoin is gonna collapse any moment.
Click to expand...

I think its a bull year. It tied to market and event risk right now. You're seeing that exuberance translate in driving asset pricing higher. I think if the market shows a hint of softening and weakness you're going to see a collapse.
 
GHG

GHG

Member
Also I hope nobody is still holding NVDA after todays news. Sell out and buy back in once the dust has settled and the price is inevitably much lower.
 
Myths

Myths

Member
Gonna have to hold onto that INFI, damnit. But I did some diversifying for this weekend. Hopefully Tuesday doesn’t hit too hard.
 
longdi

longdi

Banned
SpartanN92 said:
What happened to Nvidia??
Click to expand...

small dip after 4 days run up, luckily i sold before.
it always happens with them, good to trade nvda.
the complaints imo wont make much a dent, unless apple joins in.

btw looks like gme has stablised, when will we see the 2nd vw-like blast off. i cant wait :messenger_loudly_crying: :messenger_rocket:
 
HoodWinked

HoodWinked

Member
I was looking at stocks that were up today and saw DISCA and wtf is that. its Discovery channel. Everyone is focused on Disney while this fucking thing beat it by nearly 3x.

vdknp6A.png
 
Starlight Lotice

Starlight Lotice

Member
Will share my stupid n00b mistake here since it's a lesson learned.

Had 6000 Galaxy Next Generation shares at 0.027 cents, and the pattern for 3 weeks was rise at Market open, and down by market close.

I tried to time the market on it.

However, despite selling (default was on all shares), the blasted thing started popping up, and ended at 7 cents a share!

I did get back in at 0.05 cents but could have made a 300% gain on it instead.

Ah well, lesson learned and didn't lose money, but man...now I know why people don't try and time the market even when they see a pattern. :LOL:

Best performer of Growth Stocks is GAN, which is 70+% up for me with 60 Shares.

Best Dividend stock is BritVic, which gives me some good amounts of money, and buy on Dips! Still waiting on my QinetiQ shares though.
 
Last edited:
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
CrankyJay™ said:
As long as this bubble doesn’t burst for a few more weeks. Have just a few catalysts in the next couple weeks I need to close out some positions for cash.
Click to expand...

I already shifted to hold more cash. I’m thinking about cutting more from growth stocks but if the market does burst. We’re looking at a 35% correction (bear market is over 15.0%). That would put the S&P around 2500-2600. From highs.

I got 35% from my own EPS estimates. If it goes deeper like around 50%-55%. We’re looking at the capital for most financial institutions being wiped out. SPACs and ETFs not helping at all
 
CrankyJay™

CrankyJay™

Member
ManofOne said:
I already shifted to hold more cash. I’m thinking about cutting more from growth stocks but if the market does burst. We’re looking at a 35% correction (bear market is over 15.0%). That would put the S&P around 2500-2600. From highs.

I got 35% from my own EPS estimates. If it goes deeper like around 50%-55%. We’re looking at the capital for most financial institutions being wiped out. SPACs and ETFs not helping at all
Click to expand...
Yeah I can’t believe how easy SPAC money has been this last year. Something had to give soon.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
If I had to guess. You’re already seeing an issue where excess cash is chasing limited shares especially for good companies.

I would keep watching fund flows indicator to get an idea of how deep a correction we looking at relative to the assets underlying value.

Bitcoin crossed $49,000
 
Last edited:
CrankyJay™

CrankyJay™

Member
ManofOne said:
If I had to guess. You’re already seeing an issue where excess cash is chasing limited shares especially for good companies.

I would keep watching fund flows indicator to get an idea of how deep a correction we looking at relative to the assets underlying value.

Bitcoin crossed $49,000
Click to expand...
Reminds me of about 5-6 years ago when biotech stocks were flying high and the catalyst to burst that bubble was when Hilary Clinton said drug prices were too high and she was going to do something about it. XBI and every biotech stock immediately plummeted and never really recovered.

It’s like all the money was drained from the sector. I was so pissed at her because nothing ever came of her bullshit and I was in like half a dozen pharma stocks. Fuck her.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
CrankyJay™ said:
Reminds me of about 5-6 years ago when biotech stocks were flying high and the catalyst to burst that bubble was when Hilary Clinton said drug prices were too high and she was going to do something about it. XBI and every biotech stock immediately plummeted and never really recovered.

It’s like all the money was drained from the sector. I was so pissed at her because nothing ever came of her bullshit and I was in like half a dozen pharma stocks. Fuck her.
Click to expand...

I feel the same thing gonna happen here. A double dip drop in stock prices will hurt market makers badly. Redemptions were already a high for last year.
 
ManofOne

ManofOne

Plus Member
OSC said:
Couldn't this time be different? Perhaps its the start of massive inflation from so much money printing?
Click to expand...

this is true. Which has me even more worried. If we are seeing inflationary effects in asset pricing (too much cash chasing too few shares), and this is the result. Imagine economic inflation. The spending bill is 3 times the output gap.

we’re in uncharted territory right now and tools to manage control are out of reach
 
BigBooper

BigBooper

Member
ManofOne said:
this is true. Which has me even more worried. If we are seeing inflationary effects in asset pricing (too much cash chasing too few shares), and this is the result. Imagine economic inflation. The spending bill is 3 times the output gap.

we’re in uncharted territory right now and tools to manage control are out of reach
Click to expand...
Stock up on golden bullets?
 
BigBooper

BigBooper

Member
ManofOne said:
I not sure anymore. Asset prices are are so inflated bc people are pouring money into everything. Treasuries yields are rising and quickly too.

short term correlations are significant amongst asset classes
Click to expand...
I don't know if we are allowed to discuss it, and this isn't the right topic anyways, but makes me think of something that rhymes with plate tea set...:messenger_grinning_smiling:
 
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