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[HawksWinStanley]

What’re your guys’ thoughts on how expensive/overvalued equities are right now? I’ve been reading a lot of talk lately about how some of these stocks will plummet when inflation reaches 3% and it kind of makes me want to sell my individual securities and have cash available to DCA into my etfs and index funds.

 

[CrankyJay™]

What’re your guys’ thoughts on how expensive/overvalued equities are right now? I’ve been reading a lot of talk lately about how some of these stocks will plummet when inflation reaches 3% and it kind of makes me want to sell my individual securities and have cash available to DCA into my etfs and index funds.

I don't feel any of my equities are overvalued, lol

 

[ManofOne]

What’re your guys’ thoughts on how expensive/overvalued equities are right now? I’ve been reading a lot of talk lately about how some of these stocks will plummet when inflation reaches 3% and it kind of makes me want to sell my individual securities and have cash available to DCA into my etfs and index funds.

So it mostly depends on inflation and whether its sticky or transitory. The problem with inflation is that its never easy to predict but here is what we do know

1) Expected coverage is 4 times expect shortfall so aggregate demand will pick up
2) Inflationary effects are often felt 18 months after recovery in the output gap
3) Expected inflation in the near term is 2.4% hitting as as high as 3.5% at the end of the year.
4) Stocks will respond to inflation changes only when a) the cost of capital increases to point that hurts their structure b) when 10 year trades above 2.5%.

Right now those scenarios seem distant so don't sell yet.

Market is not over valued per se yet but its getting there once we see how this earnings season performs.

 

[ManofOne]

Employers are begging workers to come work for them. A McDonald's in Florida is paying people $50 just to show up for a job interview.

Unemployment benefits are paying some workers more than their regular wages, and it's causing problems for some small business owners who want to call people back to work. The March NFIB survey of small business owners found:

(1) 51% of owners reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. 28% of owners reported few qualified applicants for their open positions (up 2 points) and 23% reported none (down 2 points). 91% of those actually hiring can't find workers!

(2) 42% of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 2 points from February, a record high reading.

(3) 34% have openings for skilled workers (up 1 point) and 19% have openings for unskilled labor (up 3 points).

 

[ManofOne]

What’re your guys’ thoughts on how expensive/overvalued equities are right now? I’ve been reading a lot of talk lately about how some of these stocks will plummet when inflation reaches 3% and it kind of makes me want to sell my individual securities and have cash available to DCA into my etfs and index funds.

To add to your point however


"there is plenty of liquidity to drive stock prices higher without a significant correction. M2 is up $4.2 trillion y/y through February. That's an unprecedented increase. Furthermore, over the past 12 months through February, personal saving totaled a record-shattering $3.1 trillion.

All that occurred before the third round of relief checks ($1400 per eligible person) were sent by the Treasury to over 250 million Americans since mid-March.

MAMU, here we come! (In my latest book, I predicted that MMT + TINA = MAMU, where MMT = Modern Monetary Theory, TINA = there is no alternative to stocks, and MAMU = the Mother of All Meltups.)

Are you a contrarian or are you going with the flow of liquidity?"

 

[Maiden Voyage]

Is there a legit place to buy and sell crypto you fine people would recommend?

 

[ThatStupidLion]

Is there a legit place to buy and sell crypto you fine people would recommend?

unsure if this is sarcasm, but if serious come to the crypto thread for your questions. depending on where you live you'll get different answers

 

[Taxexemption]

What’re your guys’ thoughts on how expensive/overvalued equities are right now? I’ve been reading a lot of talk lately about how some of these stocks will plummet when inflation reaches 3% and it kind of makes me want to sell my individual securities and have cash available to DCA into my etfs and index funds.

As long as you need to be in the stock market to beat inflation there is a case to be made that much of the market is undervalued. If inflation is the fear, I believe stock markets perform better in periods of high inflation, at least at a nominal level, not necessarily if adjusted for inflation.



What are you going to do with your money other than the stock market? Bonds, savings accounts, and cds are all trash. If you want to beat inflation it's pretty much the stock market or crypto, I'm not a crypto guy so I'm in the stock market.


People are terrible at predicting stock market crashes, how long they will last, and how low they will go. If I saw a crash I'd invest any money I could but you could wait years for it to come, especially when the government is willing to take Herculean measures to keep the market afloat. Also why wouldn't the government intervene? If they don't keep the stock market and housing markets propped up boomers will never be able to retire, and they vote.


I think we are in novel territory where we will only know what was a good idea in hindsight.

 

[HawksWinStanley]

Is there a legit place to buy and sell crypto you fine people would recommend?

I use Gemini and have no complaints.

To add to your point however


"there is plenty of liquidity to drive stock prices higher without a significant correction. M2 is up $4.2 trillion y/y through February. That's an unprecedented increase. Furthermore, over the past 12 months through February, personal saving totaled a record-shattering $3.1 trillion.

All that occurred before the third round of relief checks ($1400 per eligible person) were sent by the Treasury to over 250 million Americans since mid-March.

MAMU, here we come! (In my latest book, I predicted that MMT + TINA = MAMU, where MMT = Modern Monetary Theory, TINA = there is no alternative to stocks, and MAMU = the Mother of All Meltups.)

Are you a contrarian or are you going with the flow of liquidity?"

Interesting. What book is this?

 

[ManofOne]

I use Gemini and have no complaints.

Interesting. What book is this?

Ed Yardini. - Economic Markets

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Decent day today. If it holds I'll be up about 2.5% for the week.

 

[Nikana]

Decent day today. If it holds I'll be up about 2.5% for the week.

Why would you jinx it....why!?

 

[Raven117]

Man, real estate has me nervous. Feels so much like 08.

 

[ManofOne]

Man, real estate has me nervous. Feels so much like 08.

Funny you say that here are two charts that might interest you.

Median selling price for existing home in U.S. has spiked to record high of $329,100 (+17.2% y/y); meanwhile, inventory incredibly low with only 1.07 million homes for sale last month (-28% y/y) … at current pace, it would take 2.1 months to sell all homes on market

new home sales, +20.7% vs. +14.2% est. & -16.2% in prior month; level has now retaken January high and is at highest since 2006 … median price +0.8% y/y to $330,800; average selling price at $397,800 … months’ supply fell to 3.6 vs. 4.4 prior

 

[Raven117]

Funny you say that here are two charts that might interest you.

Median selling price for existing home in U.S. has spiked to record high of $329,100 (+17.2% y/y); meanwhile, inventory incredibly low with only 1.07 million homes for sale last month (-28% y/y) … at current pace, it would take 2.1 months to sell all homes on market

new home sales, +20.7% vs. +14.2% est. & -16.2% in prior month; level has now retaken January high and is at highest since 2006 … median price +0.8% y/y to $330,800; average selling price at $397,800 … months’ supply fell to 3.6 vs. 4.4 prior

Yeah, seen these charts. I don't have near the qualifications as you, but man....just have that feeling. Everyone is saying the exact same thing they did in 08.

Really, its more from a home buyer perspective. It just seems nuts to go buy something right now unless you just need to.

 

[mid83]

What range is your age. Are you 18-25, 26-35, 36-45, over 45

Sorry for the double reply, but I was hoping to hear if you had any advice.

I'm 35-45, late 30s more specifically.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

I knew rebuying Grocery Outlet at the mid $30s again would be worth a risk. The stock gyrates between $35-45 since IPO. Its at $39. Will dump it if it hits $42. If it happens it'll be the second time I did the same thing.

 

[ManofOne]

Yeah, seen these charts. I don't have near the qualifications as you, but man....just have that feeling. Everyone is saying the exact same thing they did in 08.

Really, its more from a home buyer perspective. It just seems nuts to go buy something right now unless you just need to.

Mortgages are fine however what I'm looking at is margin debt.

 

[ManofOne]

Sorry for the double reply, but I was hoping to hear if you had any advice.

I'm 35-45, late 30s more specifically.

Ok, so fairly young still so you can afford to take some risk in your portoflio. ARK would be the better ones or you can try VGT or all tech funds. Tech funds have the highest beta next to biotechnological.

 

[BigBooper]

NGA finally approved the merger with Lion Electric. Anyone want to buy a school bus and help me out?

 

[HoodWinked]

This stock market is absurd. new highs after the meltdown yesterday.

 

[CrankyJay™]

NGA finally approved the merger with Lion Electric. Anyone want to buy a school bus and help me out?

Nice. I'm starting to notice a lot of the SPAC momentum with mergers has slowed down. Well, all SPACtivity in general.

I'm still holding onto TDAC commons and warrants and hoping they don't fuck up the merger to become LTRY (lottery.com)

 

[Raven117]

This stock market is absurd. new highs after the meltdown yesterday.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent!

 

[ManofOne]

This stock market is absurd. new highs after the meltdown yesterday.

It seems to think Biden's capex plan won't affect them. This is true to an extent given than

1) Retail investors is the second largest investment group
2) That the plan won't make it through congress.

above 40.0% is not unheard off but is insane. I expect a shift to the countries with a lower cap gains standard.

 

[Raven117]

Mortgages are fine however what I'm looking at is margin debt.

As in margin accounts for stock?

 

[ManofOne]

As in margin accounts for stock?

Well anyone who borrows, I could imagine that given how asset prices are performing in a low rated environment to take advantage of arbitrage and low cost of debt, you would borrow significant amounts and invest it unhedged

For example.

If you can borrow at rate of 3.0% plus LIBOR and your expected return after taxes and transaction costs is 20.0%.

Won't you take that deal?

 

[Raven117]

It seems to think Biden's capex plan won't affect them. This is true to an extent given than

1) Retail investors is the second largest investment group
2) That the plan won't make it through congress.

above 40.0% is not unheard off but is insane. I expect a shift to the countries with a lower cap gains standard.

A helpful table. Thank you

 

[Raven117]

Well anyone who borrows, I could imagine that given how asset prices are performing in a low rated environment to take advantage of arbitrage and low cost of debt, you would borrow significant amounts unhedged

For example.

If you can borrow at rate of 3.0% plus LIBOR and your expected return after taxes and transaction costs is 20.0%.

Won't you take that deal?

I gotcha.
What would a hedge be in that above senario?

 

[ManofOne]

I gotcha.
What would a hedge be in that above senario?

They would normally take the opposite position but since GameStop incident the total short positions in the overall market fell and spread on credit swaps fell. So it seems the market is bullish.

infact very bullish so much so that the slightest hiccup would cause asset prices to fall. If people are borrowing they're most likely using their stocks as collateral against the loan.

So if the market value of the stock falls below the market value of the loan, they're subjected to a margin call.

I'm fearful of two things this heightened risk taking as a result of an explosion in M2 and prolong low rates has made investor complacent that the FED will bail them out so they will take on added levels of risk.

If the market falls 5.0% tomm (for example) we could see fortunes wiped out in an instant.

 

[Raven117]

They would normally take the opposite position but since GameStop incident the total short positions in the overall market fell and spread on credit swaps fell. So it seems the market is bullish.

infact very bullish so much so that the slightest hiccup would cause asset prices to fall. If people are borrowing they're most likely using their stocks as collateral against the loan.

So if the market value of the stock falls below the market value of the loan, they're subjected to a margin call.

I'm fearful of two things this heightened risk taking as a result of an explosion in M2 and prolong low rates has made investor complacent that the FED will bail them out so they will take on added levels of risk.

If the market falls 5.0% tomm (for example) we could see fortunes wiped out in an instant.

I hear ya. Understand how that works. Was curious how that tied to the real estate market. I have a somewhat okay understanding of how it works with stock.

 

[Nikana]

This stock market is absurd. new highs after the meltdown yesterday.

I feel like I gotta start swing trading contracts to make any money.

 

[12Goblins]

not a bad day

 

[ipukespiders]

Good day for the portfolio, but didn't buy anything.

 

[HoodWinked]

playboy is crazy its up 150% from late march.

 

[BigBooper]

playboy is crazy its up 150% from late march.

What happens when everyone collectively agrees that NFTs are retarded?

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Sweet day. Ended +2%. I think I ended the week around +3.5%. Nice rebound week.

Still need 2% to get back to my all time high. Been a two month slog.

 

[GHG]

What happens when everyone collectively agrees that NFTs are retarded?

Everyone said the same about Crypto a decade ago and look at where we are now...

NFT's will only get bigger and bigger once AR/VR become more mainstream. Trading cards will become 3D digital assets with animations that you will be able to check out and play with, people will be all over that shit, never mind the limitless content Playboy will be able to create.

This stuff:



You will see it in your AR glasses rendered right in front of you. It will be huge.

The only thing people need to bear in mind is the fact that right now we are still a while away from all of this being realised don't go playing tomorrows prices for today's stocks, it will only end in tears.

 

[HawksWinStanley]

Was just reading something on Burry selling out of some of his stocks and trimming many more. He was essentially relating the current market to the housing market from 08 with how prices are being inflated.

I know the guy tends to be a pretty frugal value investor but with Gates and even Buffet selling off quite a bit recently it’s a little alarming.

 

[Ellery]

Was just reading something on Burry selling out of some of his stocks and trimming many more. He was essentially relating the current market to the housing market from 08 with how prices are being inflated.

I know the guy tends to be a pretty frugal value investor but with Gates and even Buffet selling off quite a bit recently it’s a little alarming.

Do you have a Source for that? Would love to read it

About Gates buying lots of farm land and Buffett throwing out some stocks and buying others I have read too ye.

 

[HawksWinStanley]

Do you have a Source for that? Would love to read it

About Gates buying lots of farm land and Buffett throwing out some stocks and buying others I have read too ye.

I couldn’t find the article, I was just reading a quoted portion directly from it on a Yahoo board so I don’t have it in my history but there was a linked vid with it that I watched that sums it up pretty much.

 

[ManofOne]

I couldn’t find the article, I was just reading a quoted portion directly from it on a Yahoo board so I don’t have it in my history but there was a linked vid with it that I watched that sums it up pretty much.

I think he's calling this way too early. The difference is off balance sheet items back in 08.

Even if the house market collapses, balance sheet for banks are strong. What I would watch however is the corporate debt market, margin debt market and etf's.

ETFs hurt price discovery so that in itself is a massive bubble.


Corporate debt is in a bubble and margin debt is in a bubble.


The overall market may not be in a bubble but you can find bubble like instances in areas of the market.

 

[crazepharmacist]

Michael Burry started a couple big positions in prison real estate stocks. I read a theory that he thinks a high crime rate will come along with high inflation. Also maybe higher crime with reopening of the economy and things going back to normal. How many mass shooting have we seen recently in only the last month or so for example.

 

[ManofOne]

Michael Burry started a couple big positions in prison real estate stocks. I read a theory that he thinks a high crime rate will come along with high inflation. Also maybe higher crime with reopening of the economy and things going back to normal. How many mass shooting have we seen recently in only the last month or so for example.

He also bought Uranium as well which exploded ))

 

[Nikana]

Michael Burry started a couple big positions in prison real estate stocks. I read a theory that he thinks a high crime rate will come along with high inflation. Also maybe higher crime with reopening of the economy and things going back to normal. How many mass shooting have we seen recently in only the last month or so for example.

I wasnt aware that was even a thing.

 

[ManofOne]

Good day so far up 1.0% for the morning

 

[joe_zazen]

if anyone wants to donate to india, this fellow will match. just need to see a reciept. he is a good guy.



I have an active case of covid right now, just days before I was to get the vax. :/

Is there a legit place to buy and sell crypto you fine people would recommend?

One thing to remember is crypto companies are not as secure or well regulated as banks etc, so factor potential risk of companyu failure into your calculations.

 

[joe_zazen]

Funny you say that here are two charts that might interest you.

Median selling price for existing home in U.S. has spiked to record high of $329,100 (+17.2% y/y); meanwhile, inventory incredibly low with only 1.07 million homes for sale last month (-28% y/y) … at current pace, it would take 2.1 months to sell all homes on market

new home sales, +20.7% vs. +14.2% est. & -16.2% in prior month; level has now retaken January high and is at highest since 2006 … median price +0.8% y/y to $330,800; average selling price at $397,800 … months’ supply fell to 3.6 vs. 4.4 prior

home buyers be competing with:

 

[ManofOne]

home buyers be competing with:

Yah since last month I posted research on it, real estate, financials and commodities are the best hedges against inflation.

We gotta see how inflation transitions over the next few months to support those claims.

I agree with him however.

 

[CrankyJay™]

Yah since last month I posted research on it, real estate, financials and commodities are the best hedges against inflation.

We gotta see how inflation transitions over the next few months to support those claims.

I agree with him however.

What constitutes a risky real estate venture? I'm just not real hopeful for real estate right now given COVID and companies starting to catch on that a large portion of their workers can do the job from home and do it relatively productively.

In fact, I'm almost banking on my parent company shutting our satellite office down to save on the rent/utilities and either letting us work remotely or consolidating us in another office.

 

[ManofOne]

What constitutes a risky real estate venture? I'm just not real hopeful for real estate right now given COVID and companies starting to catch on that a large portion of their workers can do the job from home and do it relatively productively.

In fact, I'm almost banking on my parent company shutting our satellite office down to save on the rent/utilities and either letting us work remotely or consolidating us in another office.

I think that will be transitory but with regards to real estate. One of the thing's I'm looking at is data centers, warehousing, storage and diversified RIETS.