I don't think people should only look at fundamentals but there comes a point where you need to be sensible. Anyone buying shares of tesla at these prices right now is taking a huge risk if they intend to hold them for any duration of time longer than a swing or day trade. Look at the PE ratio and think about how far the company needs to go for that to even start looking semi-reasonable at the current price.
Right now tesla is a car company. Can they and do they have the potential to be more? Absolutely. But the big problem is that the only thing that they are proven and established in is their car business (and in being bitcoin traders... I kid, I kid). The current prices stipulate that tesla needs to evolve into also being a major Solar/power company in addition to being a technology/AI company. Being realistic, how long will it take for those things to materialise if all goes well?
I definitely don’t have a model that predicts Tesla reaching their target price, but where they won me over was in their approach to autonomous driving, they are the only company with a sensible solution.
While Google was inventing new sensors and adding all sorts of stupid shit to their Waymo cars, Tesla focused strictly on computer vision; the same approach that won Standford the first autonomous driving DARPA challenge that was ever completed. AI superiority is data superiority, and Google’s approach forces them to build a van worth a couple hundred thousand dollars to collect data, using a radar that won’t be miniaturized any time soon. Meanwhile, Tesla gets paid (the price of the car) to collect driving data on behalf of the customer. I did the math once and estimated that Tesla has over an order of magnitude more data points than their closest competitor. There is more I can talk about the superiority of a full computer vision approach, but in short, I would bet my left nut that when they deliver autonomous driving it will take at least 3-5 years for other companies to catch up and many will have to license their technology.
As for their battery technology, a friend with an electrical engineering background assures me that Tesla’s battery technology is a generation ahead, and I trust his assessment; I went to school with him, the guy is solid.
The last time I bought Tesla was when it hit the low 600’s. Also, I think it only represents less than 5% of securities I have purchased last quarter, so I am not incredibly bullish either. I just hold.