Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

ManofOne said:
I think that will be transitory but with regards to real estate. One of the thing's I'm looking at is data centers, warehousing, storage and diversified RIETS.
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Speaking of data centers, I live in the Buffalo area and they've been able to attract a few corporations to house their data centers due to naturally cool temperatures (saves on power to cool the buildings), and absurd tax breaks from NYS.
 
Well... I'm only down like 10% on my bitcoin purchases from 2 week ago.

video GIF
 
12Goblins said:
www.reuters.com

UFC-owner Endeavor aims for over $10 bln valuation in second IPO attempt

Endeavor Group Holdings Inc, owner of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), is aiming for a valuation of more than $10 billion in its U.S. initial public offering (IPO), in what will be its second shot at going public after a failed attempt in 2019.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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He basing that on 10 year revenue. If you carried forward the earnings at a discount rate of 8.5% for entertainment with a growth rate of 15.0% and then taper it off, I assume it would be around the $6 billion mark.
 
O.v.e.rlord said:
Yea, i would agree. But I see to many times that politics influences the market in a huge way. Like when orange man said that trade wars were were essay to win. That was a good day for me.
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I miss those pumps.
Fuck, I miss him so much.
 
TESLA EARNINGS
TSLA - Tesla reported quarterly earnings of $0.93 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $0.79 by 17.72 percent. This is a 304.35 percent increase over earnings of $0.23 per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $10.39 billion which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $10.29 billion by 0.96 percent. This is a 73.58 percent increase over sales of $5.99 billion the same period last year.

uOynoK3.png



  • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reports it produced 180,338 vehicles in Q1 (+76% Y/Y) and delivered 184,777 vehicles (+109%).
  • The company says it recorded its 7th quarter in a row of being profitable through volume growth and regulatory credit revenue growth. Adjusted EBITDA rose 94% Y/Y. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 17.7% of sales vs. 16.9% anticipated.
  • Operating margin was 5.7% of sales. The company says the profit level was reached while incurring SBC expense attributable to the 2018 CEO award of $299M in Q1, driven by an increase in market capitalization and a new operational milestone becoming probable.
  • Automotive gross margin came in at 26.5% vs. 24.3% consensus and 25.5% a year ago.
  • Tesla says the Model Y ramp in Shanghai is progressing well. "We expect that our Shanghai factory will continue to increase quarterly production output through the year. We recently improved our domestic supply sourcing ratio to over 90%. Vehicle exports to Europe and APAC continue to progress as planned," updates the automaker.
  • Gigafactory Shanghai is expected to increase volume this year, while Gigafactory Berlin and Gigafactory Texas both remain on track to start production and deliveries in 2021. Tesla Semi deliveries are also slated to begin in 2021.
  • Tesla expects over a multi-year horizon to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries, with some years being higher and some lower.
  • Shares of Tesla are down 1.36%% AH to $726.60 vs. the split-adjusted 52-week trading range of $136.61 to $900.40.
  • The conference call is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET and should feature some more color on the expected trajectory of global deliveries.
  • Looking ahead, Tesla is one of the EV stocks seen having an advantage as the infrastructure bill moves forward.
 
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Tesla sold nearly $300M of bitcoin in Q1


  • The slide deck from Tesla's just-released Q1 earnings shows proceeds from sales of digital assets of $272M. The company famously disclosed $1.5B of bitcoin (BTC-USD) purchases in February.
  • The balance sheet shows digital assets of $1.331B as of March 31.
  • The news may have put a modest dent in bitcoin, which has dropped to the current $53.5K from above $54K ahead of the earnings release.
 
ManofOne said:
TESLA EARNINGS
TSLA - Tesla reported quarterly earnings of $0.93 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $0.79 by 17.72 percent. This is a 304.35 percent increase over earnings of $0.23 per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $10.39 billion which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $10.29 billion by 0.96 percent. This is a 73.58 percent increase over sales of $5.99 billion the same period last year.

uOynoK3.png



  • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reports it produced 180,338 vehicles in Q1 (+76% Y/Y) and delivered 184,777 vehicles (+109%).
  • The company says it recorded its 7th quarter in a row of being profitable through volume growth and regulatory credit revenue growth. Adjusted EBITDA rose 94% Y/Y. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 17.7% of sales vs. 16.9% anticipated.
  • Operating margin was 5.7% of sales. The company says the profit level was reached while incurring SBC expense attributable to the 2018 CEO award of $299M in Q1, driven by an increase in market capitalization and a new operational milestone becoming probable.
  • Automotive gross margin came in at 26.5% vs. 24.3% consensus and 25.5% a year ago.
  • Tesla says the Model Y ramp in Shanghai is progressing well. "We expect that our Shanghai factory will continue to increase quarterly production output through the year. We recently improved our domestic supply sourcing ratio to over 90%. Vehicle exports to Europe and APAC continue to progress as planned," updates the automaker.
  • Gigafactory Shanghai is expected to increase volume this year, while Gigafactory Berlin and Gigafactory Texas both remain on track to start production and deliveries in 2021. Tesla Semi deliveries are also slated to begin in 2021.
  • Tesla expects over a multi-year horizon to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries, with some years being higher and some lower.
  • Shares of Tesla are down 1.36%% AH to $726.60 vs. the split-adjusted 52-week trading range of $136.61 to $900.40.
  • The conference call is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET and should feature some more color on the expected trajectory of global deliveries.
  • Looking ahead, Tesla is one of the EV stocks seen having an advantage as the infrastructure bill moves forward.
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That seems pretty ambitious. I expect that means tons of political lobbying in the future.
 
Teslas share price continues to be speculative and absurd.

Until they start exceeding the expectations that are currently priced in I expect it to largely trade sideways (with a few bumps along the way).

I don't know why some tesla shareholders are up in arms about the reaction to this ER, it should be expected. Take some fucking profits, stop being delusional and greedy, and then let the rest roll for eternity and see if that ends up where you speculate it will be.
 
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GHG said:
Teslas share price continues to be speculative and absurd.

Until they start exceeding the expectations that are currently priced in I expect it to largely trade sideways (with a few bumps along the way).

I don't know why some tesla shareholders are up in arms about the reaction to this ER, it should be expected. Take some fucking profits, stop being delusional and greedy, and then let the rest roll for eternity and see if that ends up where you speculate it will be.
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That's what I told myself two years ago before selling my TSLA shares. Look at me now.
 
DarkestHour said:
That's what I told myself two years ago before selling my TSLA shares. Look at me now.
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I did say leave some in and let it roll :)

But regardless, you might get another chance to buy still, there's a long road ahead and if they are to get there it won't be a straight line to 1k a share.

Honestly the only factors holding this stock up at the moment are hype and the fact that people hero worship Elon. Because the numbers definitely aren't doing it.
 
O.v.e.rlord said:
Yea, i would agree. But I see to many times that politics influences the market in a huge way. Like when orange man said that trade wars were were essay to win. That was a good day for me.
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Sure and that gets covered. It's the nonsense that doesn't in the financial news.
 
I don't follow raw material companies (I should), but prices going up the past year and moreso. I don't know how much they've run up the past year, but you guys who want to look into that, I'd say look into any company making raw ingredients, packaging, plastic, paper etc....

Just think about random shit in your kitchen that you buy an think of what goes into it.

We've been hit with raw material costs for years. It's not just a covid thing. There's too much demand over the years for basic goods and food, so thw whole value chain gets hiked up in price.

People think it's greedy companies. But it's really not. If it's not for hoarding customers buying this shit so we run of out, companies in the chain dont increase prices much at all aside from catching up to inflation every once in a while.
 
Installed iOS 14.5... opened up FB to see what all the hype was about.

It didn't prompt me for anything..

Due diligence complete.

Buy $FB
 
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GHG said:
I did say leave some in and let it roll :)

But regardless, you might get another chance to buy still, there's a long road ahead and if they are to get there it won't be a straight line to 1k a share.

Honestly the only factors holding this stock up at the moment are hype and the fact that people hero worship Elon. Because the numbers definitely aren't doing it.
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Yeah it is a cultural thing here in the Bay Area. You buy the car and some shares to go along with it. I have friends with positions in the millions who think it is ignorant to sell. They've been proven right over and over, so I cannot argue with them.

I also don't see myself selling any part of my stash either. The last time I had to sell some positions was when I bought a house in 2018 and I only sold VTSAX. I remember my financial advisor got too annoying about that, he had already lost me some money by buying me some international ETF, so I terminated his contract that day. Since then I have been managing my portfolio alone and I don't regret it.
 
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GHG said:
Teslas share price continues to be speculative and absurd.

Until they start exceeding the expectations that are currently priced in I expect it to largely trade sideways (with a few bumps along the way).

I don't know why some tesla shareholders are up in arms about the reaction to this ER, it should be expected. Take some fucking profits, stop being delusional and greedy, and then let the rest roll for eternity and see if that ends up where you speculate it will be.
Click to expand...

This is the problem you get when you have people trading with no ideas of any fundamentals. Not that I have any solution, but if you have no concept of a price to earnings ratio, or earnings per share so that you can understand what a certain amount of money you invest in represents compared to alternatives then you are just throwing money at brands.


I also understand the argument that, if at almost any time in the last few years you invested in Tesla, you would have made money, but at some point a stock does become overvalued. I'll be really interested to see what would happen if we ever had another stock market crash, but who knows at this point if anything like that is in our future or how far away it might be.
 
Taxexemption said:
This is the problem you get when you have people trading with no ideas of any fundamentals. Not that I have any solution, but if you have no concept of a price to earnings ratio, or earnings per share so that you can understand what a certain amount of money you invest in represents compared to alternatives then you are just throwing money at brands.


I also understand the argument that, if at almost any time in the last few years you invested in Tesla, you would have made money, but at some point a stock does become overvalued. I'll be really interested to see what would happen if we ever had another stock market crash, but who knows at this point if anything like that is in our future or how far away it might be.
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The problem with looking at financial fundamentals is that they often ignore the nuances of each industry. For example, I have seen models that predicted Apple skyrocketing in 2020 once all of the pieces aligned for them to have their own silicon. That was the moment I entered in early 2018 if I remember correctly. The most popular models based on fundamentals indicated that Apple was overpriced at that point in time IIRC.

Other friends who had the same information entered with leaps instead and are now very happy.
 
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zeorhymer said:
Anyone have thoughts on nuclear stuff? I'm specifically looking for uranium mining and/or processing.
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I have a very small speculative position in URA just in case the sector pops off in the next 5 years but I'm not banking on it. Its still a highly risky space and it hasn't really recovered since the fukushima disaster.
 
godhandiscen said:
The problem with looking at financial fundamentals is that they often ignore the nuances of each industry. For example, I have seen models that predicted Apple skyrocketing in 2020 once all of the pieces aligned for them to have their own silicon. That was the moment I entered in early 2018 if I remember correctly. The most popular models based on fundamentals indicated that Apple was overpriced at that point in time IIRC.

Other friends who had the same information entered with leaps instead and are now very happy.
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I don't think people should only look at fundamentals but there comes a point where you need to be sensible. Anyone buying shares of tesla at these prices right now is taking a huge risk if they intend to hold them for any duration of time longer than a swing or day trade. Look at the PE ratio and think about how far the company needs to go for that to even start looking semi-reasonable at the current price.

Right now tesla is a car company. Can they and do they have the potential to be more? Absolutely. But the big problem is that the only thing that they are proven and established in is their car business (and in being bitcoin traders... I kid, I kid). The current prices stipulate that tesla needs to evolve into also being a major Solar/power company in addition to being a technology/AI company. Being realistic, how long will it take for those things to materialise if all goes well?
 
godhandiscen said:
The problem with looking at financial fundamentals is that they often ignore the nuances of each industry. For example, I have seen models that predicted Apple skyrocketing in 2020 once all of the pieces aligned for them to have their own silicon. That was the moment I entered in early 2018 if I remember correctly. The most popular models based on fundamentals indicated that Apple was overpriced at that point in time IIRC.

Other friends who had the same information entered with leaps instead and are now very happy.
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I can understand that as a generality. What I don't understand is paying 1,150 to get a dollar of earnings. I'm not doing any kind of really deep analysis, I'm just saying that the PE and EPS make it look bad compared to alternatives. It's hard for me to understand how this works in the long run. Maybe there is enough people that will continue to invest in tesla until it's at 10,000 a share by the time I'm an old man. Maybe their choice to accept bitcoin and possibly other crypto's as payments will lead to them making more in crypto gains than they do in cars at some point and this post will look silly. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen, I'm just saying that I really scratch my head when I try to come up with a reason to put money in tesla at this point other than "If you bought it a few years ago it would have been a good idea."
 
Taxexemption said:
This is the problem you get when you have people trading with no ideas of any fundamentals. Not that I have any solution, but if you have no concept of a price to earnings ratio, or earnings per share so that you can understand what a certain amount of money you invest in represents compared to alternatives then you are just throwing money at brands.


I also understand the argument that, if at almost any time in the last few years you invested in Tesla, you would have made money, but at some point a stock does become overvalued. I'll be really interested to see what would happen if we ever had another stock market crash, but who knows at this point if anything like that is in our future or how far away it might be.
Click to expand...


Based on this most recent report TSLA is valued at 1,261.00. This might sound like a alot but what we analyst are taught is to do weight valuations.

For TSLA is also an issue of the probability tree given that its heavily invested in R&D which makes it very difficult to get a straight value like a company that steadily pays dividends.
 
GHG said:
I don't think people should only look at fundamentals but there comes a point where you need to be sensible. Anyone buying shares of tesla at these prices right now is taking a huge risk if they intend to hold them for any duration of time longer than a swing or day trade. Look at the PE ratio and think about how far the company needs to go for that to even start looking semi-reasonable at the current price.

Right now tesla is a car company. Can they and do they have the potential to be more? Absolutely. But the big problem is that the only thing that they are proven and established in is their car business (and in being bitcoin traders... I kid, I kid). The current prices stipulate that tesla needs to evolve into also being a major Solar/power company in addition to being a technology/AI company. Being realistic, how long will it take for those things to materialise if all goes well?
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I definitely don't have a model that predicts Tesla reaching their target price, but where they won me over was in their approach to autonomous driving, they are the only company with a sensible solution.

While Google was inventing new sensors and adding all sorts of stupid shit to their Waymo cars, Tesla focused strictly on computer vision; the same approach that won Standford the first autonomous driving DARPA challenge that was ever completed. AI superiority is data superiority, and Google's approach forces them to build a van worth a couple hundred thousand dollars to collect data, using a radar that won't be miniaturized any time soon. Meanwhile, Tesla gets paid (the price of the car) to collect driving data on behalf of the customer. I did the math once and estimated that Tesla has over an order of magnitude more data points than their closest competitor. There is more I can talk about the superiority of a full computer vision approach, but in short, I would bet my left nut that when they deliver autonomous driving it will take at least 3-5 years for other companies to catch up and many will have to license their technology.

As for their battery technology, a friend with an electrical engineering background assures me that Tesla's battery technology is a generation ahead, and I trust his assessment; I went to school with him, the guy is solid.

The last time I bought Tesla was when it hit the low 600's. Also, I think it only represents less than 5% of securities I have purchased last quarter, so I am not incredibly bullish either. I just hold.
 
I've been doing a lot of DD on some biotech/pharma companies (ABBV, VRTX, REGN, AMGN among others) and it's been weird seeing reasonable valuation ratios after looking at the various high flying tech/growth stocks.
 

esla talks up AI and Bitcoin potential on conference call


  • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk talked robotics and AI during today's post-earnings conference call. Musk stated that the company is developing the most advanced AI system in the world. He also said Tesla is developing one of the strongest hardware and software AI teams in the world.
  • As expected, Musk outlined the progress of the Gigafactories outside Shanghai, Berlin and Austin as part of the outlook that deliveries will grow rapidly.
  • Tesla execs noted that the company trimmed 10% of its Bitcoin (BTC-USD) position by the end of the quarter after investing $1.5B. The profit on the sold Bitcoin position was about $101M. They indicated that the Bitcoin story began when the company was looking for a return on cash without sacrificing liquidity. Tesla is optimistic on cryptocurrencies and the liquidity in the market. Tesla plans to be a long-term investor in Bitcoin.
  • The early reaction from Wall Street is largely positive on the Tesla report.
  • CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson's reaction to the Tesla report: "TSLA posted another solid quarter of operational execution and impressively almost hit an ambitious sales target despite the pandemic-related challenges it faced in 2020 (i.e., the temporary shutdown of Fremont). Following the stock's spectacular 2020 performance (+743%), capped off by the S&P 500 addition, we view TSLA's risk/reward as more balanced at current levels. With the Germany and Texas factories unlikely to begin production until late this year, we think TSLA's quarterly volume run-rate in 2021 will be more similar to the Q4 level and it will finally face some legitimate competition in the EV space (i.e., vehicles with more comparable specs."
  • Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives' reaction: "While delivery/production numbers were known and beat the Street's expectations given the current economic backdrop, investors continue to be laser focused on the profitability picture of TSLA. GAAP gross margin was 21.3% which was slightly ahead of Street expectations of 21.0% (with automotive gross margin of 26.5% vs. consensus of 24.3% which will be a highlight of the bulls); the all-important Automotive GM ex-credits was 22.0%, vs. the year ago period of 20.0%. We note that Adj. EBITDA saw strong growth (94% y/y) coming in at $1.84 billion/margin of 18% vs. $951 million/margin of 16%; coming ahead of $1.74 billion Street estimate. In a nutshell, we believe the GM performance was a standout relative to Street fears heading into the print."
  • Shares of Tesla are down 1.73% AH to $725.40
 
ManofOne,

You're spot on with the financial companies. My Power Financial is finally in the green the past week. Took over a year to get back to pre-covid levels.

I know you've always been a supporter of buying financials when interest rates bump up, but is there a certain situation where you bail even f interest rates go up (ie. over the next few years it goes up to a certain amount like prime rates get to xxx% and thats a tipping point?)
 
StreetsofBeige said:
ManofOne,

You're spot on with the financial companies. My Power Financial is finally in the green the past week. Took over a year to get back to pre-covid levels.

I know you've always been a supporter of buying financials when interest rates bump up, but is there a certain situation where you bail even f interest rates go up (ie. over the next few years it goes up to a certain amount like prime rates get to xxx% and thats a tipping point?)
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He's made good calls with ON and Ally. Wish I jumped on Ally.
 
That feeling when your blockchain and Bitcoin ETF's are the only things keeping you in the green for the day...
 
Hmm. With things opening up, do you think that UPS/FDX will start to plateau? I'm thinking about exiting the sector after a good run.
 
StreetsofBeige said:
ManofOne,

You're spot on with the financial companies. My Power Financial is finally in the green the past week. Took over a year to get back to pre-covid levels.

I know you've always been a supporter of buying financials when interest rates bump up, but is there a certain situation where you bail even f interest rates go up (ie. over the next few years it goes up to a certain amount like prime rates get to xxx% and thats a tipping point?)
Click to expand...

Depends on trading income. So if you look at the Revenue breakdown for a bank lets say JP Morgan

Revenues = Interest Income - Interest Expense + Trading & Investment Income + Non Interest Bearing Income.

Everything depends on two things inflation and interest rates. As long as lenders are earning more than the rate of inflation then net interest income will remain positive and as long as trading and investment remains strong.

However, if rates continue to rise a few things you should look at when analyzing a bank

1) Exposure to margin debt
2) Exposure to adjustables (i.e mortgages)
3) Exposure to corporate debt.
4) Expsosure to amount of trading income


All three of these changes when IR rises and it becomes more expensive. So if the cost of borrowing rises to a point where it uneconomical for a company. I would dump it. If the costs rises to a point where people or companies are unable to pay, I would dump it. If the cost rises and the market valuations fall, I would dump banks with high exposures to trading incomes.
 
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