Support NeoGAF

[CrankyJay™]

What is this? I've just googled and can't seem to find any info on it.

Think I'm going to pile in to IVOL if this continues.

The Point Bridge GOP Stock Tracker ETF (BATS:MAGA) tracks companies in the S&P 500 that make donations to the Republican party.

The ETF had assets of $8.6 million when Benzinga last wrote about it prior to the election. The ETF was launched in September 2017. Hal Lambert, the man behind the MAGA ETF, said the ETF would continue if Trump lost and the ETF would keep the MAGA symbol.

“The goal for this ETF was the have something for conservatives to invest in that hasn’t been out there,” Lambert said at the time.

The S&P 500 was up 16.3% in 2020 and averaged annual returns of 14.5% during Trump's time in office.

 

[dem]

God damnnnn

BTC

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Did China kill Cripto? It is looking ugly for every coin

 

[12Goblins]

ima buy a little bit more ETH and see where it goes

Spoiler

 

[Smiles and Cries]

No funds to buy these lows

 

[StreetsofBeige]

I've never done crypto, but the past 4-5 years when crypto took off, I think Bitcoin rocketed and dropped to $3000-ish twice and then re-took off.

If Bitcoin drops down to $3000-5000, I might dive in. A long way to go though. Another -$30000 needed.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Hoo-boy. 3.4% inflation in April in Canada. Much of it in gasoline Makes sense. I filled my car lately and a liter of 91 gas was around $1.50. Base gas is around $1.25.

Canadian Consumer Prices Climb at Fastest Pace in a Decade

(Bloomberg) -- Consumer prices in Canada climbed in April at the fastest rate in a decade, outpacing estimates and potentially fueling concerns that the country, much of which is still in lockdown, is entering a period of persistent inflation.Annual inflation accelerated to 3.4% in April...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[AmuroChan]

Picked up some more ETH and Cardano just now.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Surviving. Down less than 1%.

 

[GHG]

SOXL printing for me today. Bought a shit load pre market and it's paying off.

 

[CrankyJay™]

When's this fed bullshit poppin' off today?

 

[Smiles and Cries]

get this day over with

 

[infinitys_7th]

There are thousands of factories like that in China's Guangdong province making desks, sneakers, sex toys, and all kinds of junk.

Makes sense.

 

[dem]

The last 2 weeks have felt like warning shots...

I'm about to tuck my dick and run.

 

[Taxexemption]

The last 2 weeks have felt like warning shots...

I'm about to tuck my dick and run.

Most of what I have is still at prices that are way up from where I bought it, and most of it pays dividends. Sure, divvies will probably be cut if things go bad but I'm in for the long run. I wouldn't mind if it was like this for awhile, if it goes down enough maybe I'll start putting more money in each month and invest the money I have on the sidelines.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

I can’t believe it, I’m actually up like $50.

 

[godhandiscen]

Most of what I have is still at prices that are way up from where I bought it, and most of it pays dividends. Sure, divvies will probably be cut if things go bad but I'm in for the long run. I wouldn't mind if it was like this for awhile, if it goes down enough maybe I'll start putting more money in each month and invest the money I have on the sidelines.

I am in the same situation. I stacked on tech stocks after the Corona dip, so things would have to go back to March/April for me to feel like I made a bad investment. My portfolio is back to what it was worth in December, and I remember feeling ecstatic back then, so no reason to panic now.

 

[HoodWinked]

juke out today was another sideways day. started off bad but clawed back to even till close.

 

[infinitys_7th]

The last 2 weeks have felt like warning shots...

I'm about to tuck my dick and run.

The housing industry is expecting its bubble to catastrophically implode in August-September. I was planning to get a modular home (real home delivered in sections, not on a trailer) late this year, and the price went up about $20/sq ft (e.g. $40k on a 2000 sq ft home). I know the builder, and they said their factory is anticipating something devastating late summer.

I was expecting that to be the catalyst, but who knows.

 

[Taxexemption]

The housing industry is expecting its bubble to catastrophically implode in August-September. I was planning to get a modular home (real home delivered in sections, not on a trailer) late this year, and the price went up about $20/sq ft (e.g. $40k on a 2000 sq ft home). I know the builder, and they said their factory is anticipating something devastating late summer.

I was expecting that to be the catalyst, but who knows.

Why would housing crash that soon? Don't tons of places still have eviction moratorium? Won't foreigners or investment companies just continue to scoop up most of what comes to market?


I think the housing market is nuts and would love a chance to buy in at a low price. My expectations are that in the next 20 years there will either be a permanent drop in housing prices due to changes in population and immigration patterns, or corporations including foreign ones will figure out how to take enough off the market that it never truly crashes and housing is permanently made expensive.


Theoretically we could become like Canada where a crazy amount of our property is bought up by foreigners to the point that it's mostly unaffordable.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Just got home from some errands and grabbing dinner.

LOL!

(+0.38%)

 

[infinitys_7th]

Why would housing crash that soon? Don't tons of places still have eviction moratorium? Won't foreigners or investment companies just continue to scoop up most of what comes to market?


I think the housing market is nuts and would love a chance to buy in at a low price. My expectations are that in the next 20 years there will either be a permanent drop in housing prices due to changes in population and immigration patterns, or corporations including foreign ones will figure out how to take enough off the market that it never truly crashes and housing is permanently made expensive.


Theoretically we could become like Canada where a crazy amount of our property is bought up by foreigners to the point that it's mostly unaffordable.

I'm just saying what the factory is saying.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Why would housing crash that soon? Don't tons of places still have eviction moratorium? Won't foreigners or investment companies just continue to scoop up most of what comes to market?


I think the housing market is nuts and would love a chance to buy in at a low price. My expectations are that in the next 20 years there will either be a permanent drop in housing prices due to changes in population and immigration patterns, or corporations including foreign ones will figure out how to take enough off the market that it never truly crashes and housing is permanently made expensive.


Theoretically we could become like Canada where a crazy amount of our property is bought up by foreigners to the point that it's mostly unaffordable.

Yup. Canada is nuts. Especially the minority hot spots like Vancouver and Toronto. Montreal not so much. But there's really only a handful of areas in the entire country that have giant pockets of foreigner money buying shit for investments or buying shit because they want to live among the millions of people in a multicultured area.

They surely could move to Saskatoon and buy a similar home for 1/4 the price. Nope.

But when mortgage rates are rock bottom, people buy it up and since they have such an urge to be where the action is, Toronto and Vancouver and there surrounding areas (lets say a 1 hr radius) get zoomed up the charts. You could live in Ottawa which is a perfectly fine mid sized city for probably half the price. Nope. Got to be the big cities.

Canadian banks already instituted a 2% mortgage stress test 3-4 years ago to prevent people from buying homes they shouldnt afford by faking in +2% to their rate to see if they can afford it. All it did was stabilize the prices. But since covid, rates dropped like a rock (about 1.5 - 2% for everyone) so that 2% stress test is basically just a wash vs. 2017.

For people who dont know how skewed the population is in Canada, check out the link. Canada has around 37M now, but the chart in WIki is outdated by 5 years, but close enough. You can jack up all the populations a bit. Here's the top 15 hubs.

By the way, in the chart Hamilton, Kitchener and Oshawa are all 1 hr or less from Toronto's hub. Hamilton and Oshawa are technically connected with the Toronto hub as it's a giant mass of areas from one side to the other, but Wiki is considering them separate. London is 2 hrs away.

List of the largest population centres in Canada - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

By population rank​

Rank[5]	Population centre	Province	Population	% Change	Class
2016	2011
1	Toronto	Ontario	5,429,524	5,144,412	+5.5%	Large urban
2	Montreal	Quebec	3,519,595	3,387,653	+3.9%	Large urban
3	Vancouver	British Columbia	2,264,823	2,124,443	+6.6%	Large urban
4	Calgary	Alberta	1,237,656	1,094,379	+13.1%	Large urban
5	Edmonton	Alberta	1,062,643	935,361	+13.6%	Large urban
6	Ottawa–Gatineau	Ontario/Quebec	989,657	945,592	+4.7%	Large urban
7	Winnipeg	Manitoba	711,925	670,025	+6.3%	Large urban
8	Quebec City	Quebec	705,103	681,804	+3.4%	Large urban
9	Hamilton	Ontario	693,645	671,008	+3.4%	Large urban
10	Kitchener	Ontario	470,015	446,295	+5.3	Large urban
11	London	Ontario	383,437	365,715	+4.8%	Large urban
12	Victoria	British Columbia	335,696	314,596	+6.7%	Large urban
13	Halifax	Nova Scotia	316,701	304,979	+3.8%	Large urban
14	Oshawa	Ontario	308,875	290,704	+6.3%	Large urban
15	Windsor	Ontario	287,069	277,970	+3.3%	Large urban

 

[down 2 orth]

The housing industry is expecting its bubble to catastrophically implode in August-September. I was planning to get a modular home (real home delivered in sections, not on a trailer) late this year, and the price went up about $20/sq ft (e.g. $40k on a 2000 sq ft home). I know the builder, and they said their factory is anticipating something devastating late summer.

I was expecting that to be the catalyst, but who knows.

Real estate is way overpriced, and I'd love to see it come crashing down. All this stuff happens in cycles though, so it's really a question of when.

On the other hand, I hear real estate in the Bahamas is surprisingly affordable. That's something to dream about...

 

[infinitys_7th]

Yup. Canada is nuts. Especially the minority hot spots like Vancouver and Toronto. Montreal not so much. But there's really only a handful of areas in the entire country that have giant pockets of foreigner money buying shit for investments or buying shit because they want to live among the millions of people in a multicultured area.

They surely could move to Saskatoon and buy a similar home for 1/4 the price. Nope.

But when mortgage rates are rock bottom, people buy it up and since they have such an urge to be where the action is, Toronto and Vancouver and there surrounding areas (lets say a 1 hr radius) get zoomed up the charts. You could live in Ottawa which is a perfectly fine mid sized city for probably half the price. Nope. Got to be the big cities.

Canadian banks already instituted a 2% mortgage stress test 3-4 years ago to prevent people from buying homes they shouldnt afford by faking in +2% to their rate to see if they can afford it. All it did was stabilize the prices. But since covid, rates dropped like a rock (about 1.5 - 2% for everyone) so that 2% stress test is basically just a wash vs. 2017.

For a bit more context, I'm talking about a rural area and an industry that generally only serves rural areas (actual suburbs hate modulars because the developers can't throw together shoddily-built split foyers and single-level slab homes and price gouge on them). I already own 40-some acres. Just need to build a house on it.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

For a bit more context, I'm talking about a rural area and an industry that generally only serves rural areas (actual suburbs hate modulars because the developers can't throw together shoddily-built split foyers and single-level slab homes and price gouge on them). I already own 40-some acres. Just need to build a house on it.

40+ acres? wtf!

Do it.

 

[GHG]

Most of what I have is still at prices that are way up from where I bought it, and most of it pays dividends. Sure, divvies will probably be cut if things go bad but I'm in for the long run. I wouldn't mind if it was like this for awhile, if it goes down enough maybe I'll start putting more money in each month and invest the money I have on the sidelines.

As long a the company has enough cash flow to pay the dividend, pay liabilities and survive a downturn (but I don't see there being an actual economic downturn considering things are gearing up to reopen everywhere) then don't sweat it. When they are down, buy more. My rule is that as long as the dividend for 12 months covers any potential shortfall in share price (if it turns down on me) then I'm still very much in. So a 5% annual dividend and it being 5% down is fine by me, it's if and when it goes past that point that I'll start asking questions.

----

Also I'll say this, some people are treating this inflation thing as if we are about to go into an economic depression, that's not the case and there are still plenty of sectors (and even some individual companies within the worst hit sectors) that can thrive in an inflationary situation. Yes the stock market will be hit hard across multiple sectors if interest rates rise but that's why everyone needs to be keeping a close eye on the financial reports of the companies they are invested in. If the company has a lot of debt or requires debt to survive you need to treat them with caution, it's likely the share price will drop and for some of them there's no telling how far they might drop.

My take on it is if you like the company but they have no cash flow or they require debt financing to survive then hold off on buying (and if you are up consider taking profits) - these companies will be available on a deep sale should interest rates rise.

Finally, check your ETF's - go through all the holdings (or at least the top 10 holdings) and have a look at what the situation is, then make a decision as to whether it makes sense to hold.

Even if you plan on holding everything regardless of what happens you at least want to know what you can expect so that it's not a surprise (which will make your emotions much easier to manage) should shit hit the fan.

#NotaFinancialAdvisor

 

[zeorhymer]

Large urban is hot real estate? That's hard to swallow. I would have thought everyone is leaving big cities. I know SF real estate tax base went negative for the first time in 30+ years. No one wants to live there.

 

[down 2 orth]

They surely could move to Saskatoon and buy a similar home for 1/4 the price. Nope.

Saskatoon berry pie, and some of the best beer on earth is a plus! But those shitty 8 month winters, high taxes, and Chairman Trudeu... it's not worth it.

Seriously though, a lot of the immigrants to Canada come from highly urbanized areas and are literally terrified of mother nature. Japanese people are an exception, but they only make up a tiny proportion.

 

[ManofOne]

Welp hope those who invested in Bitcoin did not lose much today.

 

[GHG]

Welp hope those who invested in Bitcoin did not lose much today.

You don't lose anything if you don't sell.

 

[HoodWinked]

Holy crap BTC volitility fell to 30,000 then rallied to 42,500 in 5 hours. If you swing traded that.

 

[Ozzy Onya A2Z]

As much as I kick myself about BTC it's times like this where I pat myself on the back for never having invested in BTC. BTC is mental.

 

[GHG]

As much as I kick myself about BTC it's times like this where I pat myself on the back for never having invested in BTC. BTC is mental.

Let's be honest, it's no worse than some of the penny stocks and Biotech stocks out there in terms of volatility.

The only difference is the questionable value of the underlying asset, that's still very much up for debate.

 

[Ozzy Onya A2Z]

Let's be honest, it's no worse than some of the penny stocks and Biotech stocks out there in terms of volatility.

The only difference is the questionable value of the underlying asset, that's still very much up for debate.

Too rich for my blood but if you got in years ago, laughing your ass off indeed.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Up over 2%. Looks like one of those good weeks….. next week probably the reverse. Lol.

my Lightspeed finally rebounding. Up over 10%. Was on a big downtrend the past month.

ManofOne, I got itchy and bought some more stocks lately. A few boring dividend ones but also ON Semi at $36. If it re-hits the mid $40 range I might bail ship with a 20% gain. Need another $5. I had been tracking it for months when it was $40 or so. So rolled the dice on the mid-30s pull back

 

[zeorhymer]

As much as I kick myself about BTC it's times like this where I pat myself on the back for never having invested in BTC. BTC is mental.

I only bought Bitcoin Cash as a means of currency. I wanted to see what I can buy with the thing and how many places would accept it. I viewed BTC/ETH as a stock. Buy low, sell high.

 

[godhandiscen]

Large urban is hot real estate? That's hard to swallow. I would have thought everyone is leaving big cities. I know SF real estate tax base went negative for the first time in 30+ years. No one wants to live there.

I live outside of SF but still in the Bay Area and my house went up in valuation like 20% since I bought it in 2018.
It was only the city that went down in valuation, mostly duplex buildings and other renter/investment type of properties. For example, the duplex I was trying to buy in 2019 for $2.9M is now close to $2.3M and tanking.

 

[zeorhymer]

It was only the city that went down in valuation, mostly duplex buildings and other renter/investment type of properties.

Thanks to the stupid moratorium, owners are just saying "fuck it." The owners are left to hold the bag while they try to kick the deadbeats out.

 

[godhandiscen]

Thanks to the stupid moratorium, owners are just saying "fuck it." The owners are left to hold the bag while they try to kick the deadbeats out.

Exactly the reason why I am not jumping. My idea was to keep an apartment and rent the other one, but the moratorium plus the regular SF laws being massively skewed towards the tenant left me without conviction to invest in SF real state.

Some properties worth $2M+ come with a quarter of a million discount because they aren’t vacant and the tenants are just leeching.

 

[GHG]

So now that value stocks are overvalued everyone's going back to pumping up the growth stocks even more again?

Is that where we're going with this?

 

[BigBooper]

I made 30 bucks today.

 

[zeorhymer]

So now that value stocks are overvalued everyone's going back to pumping up the growth stocks even more again?

Is that where we're going with this?

My hunch is that due to inflation worries, people will hunker down with the majority on blue chips and sprinkle a little here and there on companies that got battered over the year or so. I think growth stocks will be on the back burner for the rest of the year.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Boo ya! (+2.97%). All stocks green except one at only - 8 cents.

 

[GHG]

Keep an eye on your mining/metals and commodities stocks/etf's.




All time chart for XME to give everyone an idea of what happens when there is a shift in supply/demand for metals:

It's very much cyclical so if you're in something like this I'd suggest setting a stop in a profit taking position of you don't want to have to keep monitoring it. You don't want to get caught bagholding for a decade, people who bought in the highs of 2008 and 2011 will likely never make their money back.

 

[godhandiscen]

So now that value stocks are overvalued everyone's going back to pumping up the growth stocks even more again?

Is that where we're going with this?

Maybe money from crypto flowing back into tech stocks?

 

[GHG]

Maybe money from crypto flowing back into tech stocks?

Yeh that's the most obvious answer actually come to think of it considering what's being heavily bought at the moment. However volumes are still a bit on the low side overall which would suggest not everyone is going gung-ho.

Tomorrow will be a key day for the indexes which might well determine the outlook for the next couple of weeks. QQQ needs to have a solid day and sustain the break out above 327 and SPY needs to break 417. Both have been stuck in a bit of a horizontal channel since the 12th:

QQQ 1 day candles, 12th - 20th May:

SPY 1 day candles, 12th - 20th May:

QQQ looks slightly more bullish at the moment than SPY since we actually had a breakout above 327 today so it might give us another green day before hitting resistance at around 330. If it blasts straight through 330 then we should be in the clear for a while until there's some news that tanks the market again.

20 SMA for SPY is 415 (which is where we are now) and the 20 SMA for QQQ is 330. Considering putting money in to TQQQ tomorrow if we open above 330.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Dow and Nasdaq futures up modestly. Could be a green Friday to end the week!

 

[Ozzy Onya A2Z]

Keep an eye on your mining/metals and commodities stocks/etf's.

Sounds like a good time to buy in soon, I'll have top up the slush funds in readiness. Thanks, I'll keep an eye out. I only have one investment in the metals sector so far, for a longer play about 12 months away.

 

[GHG]

Sounds like a good time to buy in soon, I'll have top up the slush funds in readiness. Thanks, I'll keep an eye out. I only have one investment in the metals sector so far, for a longer play about 12 months away.

The signals suggest the opposite.

If you're going to buy now keep a close eye on it. Supply from China is increasing.