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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Sorry but what are you talking about? Look here:


chrome-s4-FLIpi21-C.png


AMC's highest earnings report in the last 5 years in terms of annual income was 2016 (111.67M), not 2018 (110.1M).

The only reason 2018 looked "good" (a 122.6% gain year on year) was because their 2017 was abysmal.

They were a dying company, long before the pandemic. Look at their 2019 pre-pandemic figures - a loss of 149M.

Look at their free cash flow for the last 5 years:

chrome-znr-YBAK9cp.png


In what world is that a company worth $25 a share? 25$ a share puts them at an 11B market cap. A company that has an average net free cash flow in the negative billions for the last 5 years is worth a 11B market cap? In what world? Even if you take the pandemic year out of the equation they are still -71.66M.

I don't understand your logic here.
To be fair, stock prices are built on dreams and hype. Ever since the dot com craze and online trading came about, anything can be valued at high prices and market caps.

There's endless numbers of bio tech companies with nothing but some shitty phase 1 testing losing $100Ms a year, yet still have market caps in the billions. Even if they got lucky and got a drug a approved, it might be 5 years from now. But until then, it's tons of costs and $0 sales.
 
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GHG

Member
To be fair, stock prices are built on dreams and hype. Ever since the dot com craze and online trading came about, anything can be valued at high prices and market caps.

There's endless numbers of bio tech companies with nothing but some shitty phase 1 testing losing $100Ms a year, yet still have market caps in the billions. Even if they got lucky and got a drug a approved, it might be 5 years from now. But until then, it's tons of costs and $0 sales.

Oh I know. It doesn't make them "worth" their current market caps though. If you were to say they "could be" worth a certain amount then that's fine. But then we are speculating and no longer talking about fundamentals which is a different discussion entirely.

And then based on that you can manage risk appropriately, how much of your portfolio should that type of company take up, what's your risk management like for it, what is your exit strategy etc etc?

Just throwing numbers out there and saying "I think X company is worth Y" when it is completely detached from today's reality is a dangerous game and if you do that enough times that's how you end up at risk of blowing up your account.

We all have room for speculative moonshot investments/trades in our portfolios but you should be ready to lose that money if and when it goes wrong.

For AMC to be worth an 11B market cap they need to start making amounts of money that they haven't once managed in the last 5 years. And that's not even going in to their debt situation. I'd like to hear how he thinks they are suddenly going to flip a switch and start making things happen as a company when they are in an industry that is shrinking.
 
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To be fair, stock prices are built on dreams and hype. Ever since the dot com craze and online trading came about, anything can be valued at high prices and market caps.

There's endless numbers of bio tech companies with nothing but some shitty phase 1 testing losing $100Ms a year, yet still have market caps in the billions. Even if they got lucky and got a drug a approved, it might be 5 years from now. But until then, it's tons of costs and $0 sales.

The market undervalues and overvalues companies all the time, but evenutally they'll settle back down to prices they should be worth or at least close to it.

This is why i've sold Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia and the like. Can they still keep growing for another 5 years? Sure, but i've made my gains and they are long past what I think they're worth, so I don't care anymore

All i'm seeing right now is people obssessed with growth, but they don't care at what price they buy in to get it
 
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GHG

Member
All i'm seeing right now is people obssessed with growth, but they don't care at what price they buy in to get it

This is the key and not enough people understand it. There is a difference between share price growth and company growth, some of these growth stocks have decades worth of growth currently baked in to them and that's assuming they will continue to grow at the same rate they have over the last few years (they wont).

And just because something is currently growing it doesn't mean it will grow forever. You can still get growth companies at good prices but it often means being patient.

It's just kind of strange to me having no other plays..

It's called gambling.
 
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Using AMC as an example to highlight an important metric people ignore when finding a companies value

Shares outstanding

in 2017 they had 121.36 million shares outstanding

in 2020 they now have 400 million shares outstanding

If you invested in them in 2017, your shares have been diluted by over 300% thanks to that alone.
 
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godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
I have 1 leap for Cloudflare (NET) @ $80 for Jan 2023

It was in the red for so long, but I am glad it is about to print with over a year to go.

Now if only Apple leaps would start printing too.
 
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GHG

Member
Using AMC as an example to highlight an important metric people ignore when finding a companies value

Shares outstanding

in 2017 they had 121.36 million shares outstanding

in 2020 they now have 400 million shares outstanding

If you invested in them in 2017, your shares have been diluted by over 300% thanks to that alone.

And the kicker is AMC needed to do that for no other reason than to stay afloat.
 
And the kicker is AMC needed to do that for no other reason than to stay afloat.

Yup

Barely any growth
No profit
No free cash flow
Ridiculously high debt
Shares outstanding to the max

Just a speculative play all round

My biggest concern here is the debt. When we go through catastrophic events like COVID its companies like this with ridiculously high debt that are the most dangerous plays
 
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Raven117

Member
Lol @ anyone trying to pump AMC as a 20 dollar stock

In what fucking world can your "DD" paint that picture?

Get fucked with that carnie shit.
Well said.

GME and AMC are pure trading/speculation vehicles at this point. Nothing about their "fundamentals" warrant their current prices. Know that going in if you choose to do so.

For me, I take it nice and slow and it sure as hell is working.
 

GHG

Member
Lol @ anyone trying to pump AMC as a 20 dollar stock

In what fucking world can your "DD" paint that picture?

Get fucked with that carnie shit.

This is what I mean when I say this shit is dangerous. People who don't know any better will read that and think it seems reasonable and then they go and buy getting trapped in this mess.

"They must know something that you don't" goes both ways my dudes.
How the fuck does does a price target move from 2.50 to 18 within a month, clowns.

Nobody should ever base their investments around what analysts say.

Cahtie Wood says Tesla could go to 3k a share and bitcoin to 500k. Gotta go put all my portfolio into tesla and bitcoin then!
 
This is what I mean when I say this shit is dangerous. People who don't know any better will read that and think it seems reasonable and then they go and buy getting trapped in this mess.



Nobody should ever base their investments around what analysts say.

Cahtie Wood says Tesla could go to 3k a share and bitcoin to 500k. Gotta go put all my portfolio into tesla and bitcoin then!

Uyq1o9n.jpg


ejYQ5cF.jpg


Jg8DROU.jpg


Hyj1qwe.jpg


PgxnDPV.jpg


The next Warren Buffet right here folks
 
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Damn, AMC is wild, regret not selling at 29... let some go now.
Did not want to be stuck holding a bag like the last time it went to 18-19 this time. lol
Good luck to those who are holding, to Europa!
 

godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
Uyq1o9n.jpg


ejYQ5cF.jpg


Jg8DROU.jpg


Hyj1qwe.jpg


PgxnDPV.jpg


The next Warren Buffet right here folks

I am confident that all the positive attention Cathie Woods got across news and social media is artificial (bought) for the purposes of hyping up her funds.

Guerrilla marketing services now provide fake fans making memes and drawings, that will surface to the top of Reddit and the Google news carousel, and when I saw the media combo going for her I realized it was eerily similar to all the other campaigns guerrilla marketing firms run. Good investment on her end; ask a random retail investor holding ARK if they visit WSB, they most likely do.
 
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godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
I bought $100 worth of AMC when it was $5, then sold at $10.50. Bought more with the profits when it dropped again, gonna hold and see how high it goes. I'm only out $100 no matter what and it's fun to watch what it's doing.
Make sure you account for short term capital gains tax. I had a friend doing that last year who ended up in debt on some positions.
 

Dural

Member
Make sure you account for short term capital gains tax. I had a friend doing that last year who ended up in debt on some positions.

Yeah, the tax rate for what I'm making on these short term investments is so small that it won't affect my taxes too much (I'd be in the lowest bracket that's 10%).
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Similar here, are you out of your entire position now or holding some still?
I am still holding about half since I have already made back all of my initial "investment".
Not in it at all! Damn. I've been out of meme stocks since Feb. My last one was Nokia where I made some money. I still track GME and AMC for kicks and my bro has been texting me everyday about AMC the past week.

On the plus side, my stocks trending up this afternoon too. I'm suddenly up +1.2% out of nowhere. Have had a great 2 week run. Portfolio at all time high.
 
Not in it at all! Damn. I've been out of meme stocks since Feb. My last one was Nokia where I made some money. I still track GME and AMC for kicks and my bro has been texting me everyday about AMC the past week.

On the plus side, my stocks trending up this afternoon too. I'm suddenly up +1.2% out of nowhere. Have had a great 2 week run. Portfolio at all time high.

Ah, sorry, I misinterpreted your post.
Yeah, it seems decent for stocks at the moment, everything is up meme and non-meme.
I am more like your bro unfortunately. Hah ;P
 

hollams

Gold Member
I've been holding my AMC bag since Feb where my avg price was around 17.80 so I thought it was a lost cause but I'm glad I kept holding on and was able to get out completely today and make a nice profit. I was hoping to buy some new subwoofers, but it looks like all of the ones I was looking at are on backorder and have gone up in price since COVID.
 
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GHG

Member
lul Ark


Our saviour, our queen. Go Cathie.

If she sold one of the few pure play space stocks out there what the fuck is even still in her space ETF other than her double dipping in to her 3d printing ETF?
 
Your skepticism is whats preventing you from making it big in the stock market, your false idea that a fundamental investment is better, even though you dont know what those fundamentals are.

Cathie Wood was always a voice to what the majority of investors are doing, the majority bets on Tesla? Arkk bets on tesla, they have no idea what they are doing, yet they followed a social bias and thats what gave them status.

Spending most of your time debating whether something is real or not, regardless of it going up in value because you believe in some obscure religion that you need to follow certain rules will only drive you down.

Fortune has always benefited the brave, regardless if they are right or not.

Its the coldness that will bring you fortune.

This is likely my last post here, and ill end it up with be sure of what you're doing, i've been on AMC for months, I was sure of what was about to come, now that its here its obvious a ton of people will counter argue what i've been looking at for months. Regardless of your opinion, you invest because you want more money than you started with, and regardless of your opinion, im happy I've invested in this for months, when all my friends would tell me im insane.

You're insane until you stop being insane.

You dont really need to be right everytime, just once.
 
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GHG

Member
Your skepticism is whats preventing you from making it big in the stock market, your false idea that a fundamental investment is better, even though you dont know what those fundamentals are.

Cathie Wood was always a voice to what the majority of investors are doing, the majority bets on Tesla? Arkk bets on tesla, they have no idea what they are doing, yet they followed a social bias and thats what gave them status.

Spending most of your time debating whether something is legit or not, regardless of it going up in value because you believe in some obscure religion that you need to follow certain rules will only drive you down.

Fortune has always benefited the brave, regardless if they are right or not.

Its the coldness that will bring you fortune.

Sorry but I'm still waiting for you to explain us why AMC's intrinsic value is $25 a share based on your "fundamentals". I've looked and I'm not seeing anything that makes me think it's worth that. I've told you what my thoughts are and why, I'm now waiting for you to do the same in return.

Until then I don't think it's worth us having a discussion since we are clearly on two different paths.

If you want to YOLO trade AMC then go for it, nobody is telling you not to. If you genuinely see a long term investment opportunity in AMC at it's current share price then I think I'll pass on any advice coming from you that is supposed to help anyone "make it big".
 
Sorry but I'm still waiting for you to explain us why AMC's intrinsic value is $25 a share based on your "fundamentals". I've looked and I'm not seeing anything that makes me think it's worth that. I've told you what my thoughts are and why, I'm now waiting for you to do the same in return.

Until then I don't think it's worth us having a discussion since we are clearly on two different paths.

If you want to YOLO trade AMC then go for it, nobody is telling you not to. If you genuinely see a long term investment opportunity in AMC at it's current share price then I think I'll pass on any advice coming from you that is supposed to help anyone "make it big".

I do see a long term investment on AMC, I think there is intrinsic value in what they are, which is the biggest theatre chain in the world, their retail spaces are more than worth what they are currently going for, I think you're ignoring a few factors that add to the value, but im not sharing months of investigation.

Keep your opinion, and ill keep mine, we can agree to disagree and that is ok.

In the end of the day, what matters is you pay X for stock and you take a few times that. This is what the market is for, to multiply your investment, as you stand here debating whether its worth it or not, it has gone up 3-4x its value.

There are only 3 things certain in life, death - tax - all shorts must cover.
 
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GHG

Member
I do see a long term investment on AMC, I think there is intrinsic value in what they are, which is the biggest theatre chain in the world, their retail spaces are more than worth what they are currently going for, I think you're ignoring a few factors that add to the value, but im not sharing months of investigation.

Keep your opinion, and ill keep mine, we can agree to disagree and that is ok.

Sounds solid.

I'm investing tomorrow.

Also with this:

You dont really need to be right everytime, just once.

You do realise the exact opposite is also true right? In that it only takes being wrong once to end up with nothing left if you decide to YOLO and go all in on something?

People here are genuinely trying to help you and put you on the right path that will help you long term but you don't seem to want to listen. I hope this works out for you, it needs to.
 
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BigBooper

Member
Your skepticism is whats preventing you from making it big in the stock market, your false idea that a fundamental investment is better, even though you dont know what those fundamentals are.

Cathie Wood was always a voice to what the majority of investors are doing, the majority bets on Tesla? Arkk bets on tesla, they have no idea what they are doing, yet they followed a social bias and thats what gave them status.

Spending most of your time debating whether something is real or not, regardless of it going up in value because you believe in some obscure religion that you need to follow certain rules will only drive you down.

Fortune has always benefited the brave, regardless if they are right or not.

Its the coldness that will bring you fortune.

This is likely my last post here, and ill end it up with be sure of what you're doing, i've been on AMC for months, I was sure of what was about to come, now that its here its obvious a ton of people will counter argue what i've been looking at for months. Regardless of your opinion, you invest because you want more money than you started with, and regardless of your opinion, im happy I've invested in this for months, when all my friends would tell me im insane.

You're insane until you stop being insane.

You dont really need to be right everytime, just once.
season 9 smoking GIF
 

Chromata

Member
AMC has no business being in this price range on a fundamental/intrinsic level. A lot of people are playing with fire here and going to get burned bad. To put it into perspective, it’s currently trading at higher ratios than Nvidia, a company that‘s overvalued despite just reporting 80%+ growth and having a promising future.
 
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Sounds solid.

I'm investing tomorrow.

Also with this:



You do realise the exact opposite is also true right? In that it only takes being wrong once to end up with nothing left if you decide to YOLO and go all in on something?

People here are genuinely trying to help you and put you on the right path that will help you long term but you don't seem to want to listen. I hope this works out for you, it needs to.
I've done this for a few years, its quite the opposite. People have told me I was wrong since this was a 5$ stock, Im doing fine as it stands.

As I said earlier, this is probably the last time in our lifetime where these conditions meet, you make your choice. Time will tell.
 
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StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
I don't think taxes are certain, people evade them all the time. The death and taxes slogan is good marketing for governments though.
Totally.

If you miss paying taxes, all the government is going to do is audit you and you go back and forth with paperwork to resolve it. At worst you pay it back with 2% interest. It's not like they throw you in jail unless you are purposely trying to scam off money to foreign accounts for years and avoid discussing it with them.

I've been audited a few times over investment gains and expenses. They claim I owe more and want to see all my documents.

I sent it to them and they are wrong too as their first stab at it is always way too much. Mine is too little. We meet somewhere in the middle and I pay the difference and the case is closed.

The biggest hassle isn't even the money. It's compiling all the real estate files and sending it to them in a parcel. They want to see it. No problem. Have fun sifting through 100s of pages of files and bills.

If I purposely dont pay stock gain taxes and somehow they and the bank link up and they come after me with a tax debt to pay off, big deal. Just pay it off. It's not like a cop is going to bang on my door and arrest me for not paying at first attempt.
 
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Totally.

If you miss paying taxes, all the government is going to do is audit you and you go back and forth with paperwork to resolve it. At worst you pay it back with 2% interest. It's not like they throw you in jail unless you are purposely trying to scam off money to foreign accounts for years and avoid discussing it with them.

I've been audited a few times over investment gains and expenses. They claim I owe more and want to see all my documents.

I sent it to them and they are wrong too as their first stab at it is always way too much. Mine is too little. We meet somewhere in the middle and I pay the difference and the case is closed.

The biggest hassle isn't even the money. It's compiling all the real estate files and sending it to them in a parcel. They want to see it. No problem. Have fun sifting through 100s of pages of files and bills.

If I purposely dont pay stock gain taxes and somehow they and the bank link up and they come after me with a tax debt to pay off, big deal. Just pay it off. It's not like a cop is going to bang on my door and arrest me for not paying at first attempt.


The part about being audited sounds correct but... It's not that the bank links up with them when it comes to stock gains. Your broker is required to send a copy of the same 1099 they give you to the IRS.


As an auditor (Not for the IRS) going through 100 pages even if they are all invoices that are supposed to add up to a certain amount takes a lot less time then you would think. Sure, the first time you do something like this it takes you a long time, these days I'd be excited to be handed 100 pages of invoices. It means I have a good excuse for a few hours to listen to podcasts while I enter the important details in an excel spreadsheet. If it's a contract or similar I'm usually only looking for certain key information and just skipping anything else.


So far for the few businesses I've been involved in auditing, they keep far worse records than any business I ever worked for. I'm pretty sure at previous jobs if we just flat out didn't have some invoices my boss would have had a full blown meltdown. The places I'm auditing? So far there are always missing invoices, and sometimes the invoices we get are entered in the wrong year. The way some people think, they would think this was a huge deal like we are going to have some huge crackdown on them. Nope, it's more like,


"Yeah, you can't include that, you don't have an invoice." Or "Yeah, you entered this in the wrong year."
 

ManofOne

Plus Member
US INFLATION JUMPS

A US inflation measure closely watched by the Federal Reserve posted its biggest year-on-year jump since the 1990s in April, rising more than expected and fuelling concerns about price increases.

The commerce department’s core personal consumption expenditure index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 3.1 per cent last month compared to a year ago. The surge represents a sharp increase compared to the 1.9 per cent annual rise in March, and was higher than a consensus forecast estimating a 2.9 per cent jump.

On a monthly basis the core PCE index jumped 0.7 per cent last month, compared to 0.4 per cent in March.

This would bring the core PCE price index well above the Fed’s 2 per cent target, to levels that have not been recorded since the 1990s.

The surge in the PCE price index may raise new alarm about the US recovery overheating amid a burst of demand as the pandemic wanes. But Fed officials have signalled that they believe that the factors driving the change are mostly transient, such as heavy fiscal stimulus and supply-chain bottlenecks, and that inflation is likely to fall back later in the year.

One of the biggest factors driving the year-on-year increase in reported inflation in April relates to so-called “base effects” — the comparison with 2020 readings that were exceedingly low during the first coronavirus lockdowns.

Since last year the Fed has adopted a more tolerant approach to inflation, striving to achieve moderately higher price rises compared to its target, in order to compensate for years of low inflation and push more forcefully for full employment.
 

Raven117

Member
Time will tell.
Yeah, it will. And the long term investments that track the s&p 500 will make you more money on the long run. Sure, you could hit the lottery, but if you are investing and not gambling, then in the long run, low and steady is how you acquire wealth.
US INFLATION JUMPS

A US inflation measure closely watched by the Federal Reserve posted its biggest year-on-year jump since the 1990s in April, rising more than expected and fuelling concerns about price increases.

The commerce department’s core personal consumption expenditure index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 3.1 per cent last month compared to a year ago. The surge represents a sharp increase compared to the 1.9 per cent annual rise in March, and was higher than a consensus forecast estimating a 2.9 per cent jump.

On a monthly basis the core PCE index jumped 0.7 per cent last month, compared to 0.4 per cent in March.

This would bring the core PCE price index well above the Fed’s 2 per cent target, to levels that have not been recorded since the 1990s.

The surge in the PCE price index may raise new alarm about the US recovery overheating amid a burst of demand as the pandemic wanes. But Fed officials have signalled that they believe that the factors driving the change are mostly transient, such as heavy fiscal stimulus and supply-chain bottlenecks, and that inflation is likely to fall back later in the year.

One of the biggest factors driving the year-on-year increase in reported inflation in April relates to so-called “base effects” — the comparison with 2020 readings that were exceedingly low during the first coronavirus lockdowns.

Since last year the Fed has adopted a more tolerant approach to inflation, striving to achieve moderately higher price rises compared to its target, in order to compensate for years of low inflation and push more forcefully for full employment.
You have been quite this week. Thanks for posting this. This has me concerned.
 
My bro told me how many shares he had yesterday and at $33 US now, I did the math. That lucky fuck is up $200,000 CDN.

He better get me a good Xmas present this year.
nice!

I am not in it that far but still exciting to watch but not sure how I would feel watching 200K and holding

I see some people taking profits and some people getting greedy and betting on $40 for the day in options smh
this thing could be pushed back down at anytime
 

GHG

Member
US INFLATION JUMPS

A US inflation measure closely watched by the Federal Reserve posted its biggest year-on-year jump since the 1990s in April, rising more than expected and fuelling concerns about price increases.

The commerce department’s core personal consumption expenditure index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 3.1 per cent last month compared to a year ago. The surge represents a sharp increase compared to the 1.9 per cent annual rise in March, and was higher than a consensus forecast estimating a 2.9 per cent jump.

On a monthly basis the core PCE index jumped 0.7 per cent last month, compared to 0.4 per cent in March.

This would bring the core PCE price index well above the Fed’s 2 per cent target, to levels that have not been recorded since the 1990s.

The surge in the PCE price index may raise new alarm about the US recovery overheating amid a burst of demand as the pandemic wanes. But Fed officials have signalled that they believe that the factors driving the change are mostly transient, such as heavy fiscal stimulus and supply-chain bottlenecks, and that inflation is likely to fall back later in the year.

One of the biggest factors driving the year-on-year increase in reported inflation in April relates to so-called “base effects” — the comparison with 2020 readings that were exceedingly low during the first coronavirus lockdowns.

Since last year the Fed has adopted a more tolerant approach to inflation, striving to achieve moderately higher price rises compared to its target, in order to compensate for years of low inflation and push more forcefully for full employment.

So we've got this yet the market has gone nuts again this week?

It doesn't add up. I'm chilling, still not buying anything for the long term. Great market to trade in though.
 
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