New England at Pittsburgh Analysis
The Flying Elvii knew Ben Roethlisberger was shaky, and expected Pittsburgh to run. So New England spent the first half in an obvious run "overstack," daring Roethlisberger to throw. Again and again the Steelers ran straight at the overstack, with scant results. When Roethlisberger came to the line and saw a rush defense, he didn't audible to a play-fake -- for instance on one second-and-9 in the first half, New England was in a run overstack, Roethlisberger didn't audible to a pass, Jerome Bettis went straight ahead for just one yard. Pittsburgh coaches did not react to the New England defensive strategy by calling passes on first down. To the point at which the Steelers fell behind 24-3 and had to start passing, Pittsburgh ran 10 times on first down for a total of 31 yards, and passed twice on first down for a total of 47 yards. Coaches have good or bad games just like players, and Pittsburgh coaches had a terrible game -- they did not adjust to what New England was doing, endlessly calling first-down rushes. If Pittsburgh coaches had lost confidence in Roethlisberger, then he should not have been on the field. If he was going to be the quarterback, he needed the green light to take what New England was offering. Instead through the first half, Roethlisberger kept handing off into run defenses on first and second downs, then passing from the shotgun on third down. This was a coaching failure, not Roethlisberger's fault.
On the defensive side, New England had controlled the tempo against Indianapolis by passing short, so the Pittsburgh defensive game plan was to expect the short pass. Come on, this is New England, they never use the same tactics two weeks in a row! The Flying Elvii opened the game throwing deep, and Pittsburgh was caught napping, especially on the 60-yard bomb to Deion Branch, when both safeties were up short, expecting a short pass.
Bill Cowher is now 1-4 in title games played at home, and timidity is a major reason. You can't back into the Super Bowl, you must seize the day! Of his inexplicable decision to kick from the New England 2 despite being down by 14 points in the fourth quarter, Cowher said the field goal cut the margin to "just two scores." But the margin was two scores before the field goal! A 14-point margin means you must score twice, and 11-point margin means you must score twice. Really, the later means you must score three times -- a field goal, a touchdown and a deuce conversion, which the odds are against. Had Cowher gone for the touchdown, he would either have reduced the margin to one score, or failed and pinned the Patriots against their goal line in what would have been deafening noise. Instead, by kicking, he let his own team know he was quitting on the game. Again what seems at work is the psychological dynamic of NFL coaches wanting to avoid blame. Had Cowher gone for it and failed, then sportswriters would blame him for the defeat. When he did the "safe" thing and kicked, sportswriters blamed his players for not getting the ball back.
Even the Football Gods Exclaimed Aaaiiiiiiiiyyyyyyyyeeeeeeeeeeee!
Trailing the defending champion Patriots 31-17 with 13:32 remaining, Pittsburgh faced fourth-and-goal on the New England 2, home crowd roaring at experimental-scramjet decibels. You're down by two touchdowns. You have the league's No. 2 rushing attack. Your opponent's best defensive lineman is wearing street clothes. It's the playoffs, there is no tomorrow. You cannot win a monster game unless you are willing to seize the day. And you can't dance with the champ, you have to knock him down: you must go for it. In trotted the field goal unit. Above my house, skies darkened and lightning flashed as the football gods showed their displeasure. After the field goal the score was 31-20 -- meaning Pittsburgh was still down by two touchdowns, nothing had been accomplished. The Steelers would have been better off going for it and failing, showing courage and pinning the Patriots against their goal line, than launching a mincing fraidy-cat kick. After the field goal you could practically see on Patriots players' faces this thought: They are afraid of us. Suppose positions were reversed and the Patriots, trailing 31-17, faced fourth-and-goal on the Pittsburgh 2 in the fourth quarter. Is there any chance, any chance in all the world, Bill Belichick have let his opponent off the hook by kicking? You know the answer.
Sweet Play of the Championships
Leading 10-3, New England reached second-and-5 on the Pittsburgh 9. David Givens lined up wide right, came in motion back left, then spun around and went right again. You'll just have to believe this, but yours truly immediately said, "It's the hitch to Givens." And so it was, touchdown, the Steelers defensive backs way out of position and seeming to have no idea a hitch might be called. How might they have known? Three weeks ago I wrote in this space, "Note to defensive coordinators, the Patriots like the quick hitch at the goal line."
Sour Play of the Championships
Flying Elvii leading 3-0 in the first quarter, Pittsburgh faced fourth-and-a-foot on the New England 39. This is the Maroon Zone, where it's too close to punt but too far for a field-goal attempt. The Steelers, properly, went for it. Before the play, Bill Belichick motioned Ted Johnson over and whispered something to him. TMQ bets what Belichick whispered -- okay, this was at Heinz Field, actually Belichick shouted this at the top of his lungs -- was to forget the sneak, the ball was going to Bettis. Belichick would have known from film study that although it's nearly impossible to stop a quarterback sneak for a foot, the Steelers rarely sneak. Belichick even seemed to be able to tell Johnson which direction the handoff would go. Sure enough the ball was handed to Bettis, and something went badly wrong. Bettis ran toward the left guard position, behind the Steelers' best blocker, Alan Faneca. But Faneca pulled right, leaving no blocker in the very place Bettis was headed. Sometimes a guard pulls away from the action as a misdirection tactic -- but a guard would never pull from the very place a runner was going on short yardage. Bettis was hit in the backfield and fumbled, an omen of the Pittsburgh collapse that was to follow.
Sour Play of the Championships No. 2
Often when the offense commits a bad play, forcing the defense suddenly onto the field, the defense immediately commits a bad play. Knowing this, on the first Patriots snap after the Pittsburgh fumble described above, Charlie Weis had Tom Brady throw long. Deion Branch ran a deep post and was single-covered by Deshea Townsend, 60-yard touchdown and the home fans are dumbstruck. Watch the tape; three Pittsburgh defenders, including both safeties, are just standing around in the short center, covering no one, as Branch streaks by.
The Rule of Comebacks
Tuesday Morning Quarterback's Rule of Comebacks: Defense starts them, offense stops them. Down 24-3 at halftime, Pittsburgh had a fighting chance in the second half -- the Steelers had as much time available to come back as the Patriots used to get ahead. But it was essential the No. 1-ranked Steelers defense not allow New England to score again. Instead, after the Steelers made it 24-10 and Ketchup Field was shaking, the No. 1-ranked Steelers defense allowed New England to drive the length of the field for the touchdown that put the home team in deep trouble. Then in the fourth quarter, score 31-20, the No. 1-ranked Steelers defense allowed New England to stage a clock-killing 10-play drive that made it 34-20 with eight minutes remaining. The Steelers defense saved its worst game of the year for last.
Pittsburgh-New England Zebra Update
A week ago against Indianapolis, the Patriots were never flagged for offensive holding or pass interference, usually the two most harmful penalties. This week against Pittsburgh, the Patriots were not flagged for offensive holding or pass interference. Last season in the AFC championship game against Indianapolis, the Patriots were never called for pass interference or offensive holding. Last season in the playoff game before that, Tennessee at New England, the Patriots were not flagged for offensive holding or defensive interference. Because they are well-coached, the Patriots commit fewer infractions than other teams, and there is no doubt the best team won at Heinz Field this Sunday. But are we seriously supposed to believe that in four consecutive AFC playoff games, Patriots' offensive linemen never held and Patriots' defensive backs never interfered? Rules are rules, and ought to be enforced for New England the same way they are for everyone else.
Time to Change the Defensive Holding Call
Defensive holding is five yards marched off, but an automatic first down; this makes the penalty an absolute killer if assessed when the offense has more than five yards to go. New England 24, Pittsburgh 10 in the third quarter, the Steelers had the Patriots facing third-and-17 in their own territory. A screen pass clanged to the ground incomplete, the crowd roared, the Steelers would get the ball back in good field position, except -- defensive holding. Set aside that the call was ticky-tacky. New England needed 17 yards for a first down; Pittsburgh was penalized five yards; New England received a first down. The Flying Elvii ended up with a touchdown on the drive, and the game changed from tense to a walkover. How about making defensive holding a simple five-yard mark-off?
Tis Better to Have Rushed and Lost Than Never to Have Rushed At All No. 3
Pittsburgh's decision to kick on fourth-and-goal from the New England 2, trailing 31-17 in the fourth quarter, doomed the Steelers. But what came before wasn't pretty either. The Hypocycloids had second-and-goal on the New England 3, with the second-rated rushing attack in the NFL, with New England's best defensive lineman in street clothes. Pound? Pass incomplete, a crazy jump-ball attempt that the Patriots double-covered anyway. On third down, Pittsburgh ran the ball to the 2, then the Steelers' coaches ran up the white flag by sending in the kicking unit. Why launch a goal line pass when simply pounding the ball is odds-on to produce a touchdown?
Tis Better to Have Rushed and Lost Than Never to Have -- Hey, They Ran
Leading 34-20 with 4:30 remaining, New England faced fourth-and-1 on the Steelers 25. A field goal is attractive here, but a first down ices the game. The Patriots ran, converted, and the rest was filler. Recall that a week ago Indianapolis, with the league's best offense, was afraid to try on fourth-and-1 in Patriots territory. Winning teams seize the day.
