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Tom Warren “Sony’s PS5 sales down 29% yoy in the recent Q” (forecast FY24 to be lower than FY23)

Dick Jones

Gold Member
And yet PS5 has sold more than 5:1 compared to Xbox this quarter dear Tom. :messenger_winking:
You are using the wrong metric.
If you include the terraflop metric, it's only
12.1 : (10.3 x 5)
12.1 : 51.5
1 : 4.2561983471074
Then you round down as it is less than .5
1 : 4

 The gap is closing.
Another win for the good guys.

Give Phil another promotion.
Another career moment reached.
 
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Maybe, you haven't quite understood what I am saying here. I am saying Xbox flatlining, and these users are not going to Playstation. The market is shrinking drastically. If Sony see's further declines over the next few years its going to be bad for the games industry. They need to deliver some serious system selling games to push sales. Channels are stuffed with stock, shipments are slowing. Games cost magnitudes more to develop than they did on PS4, they can't just match PS4 sales in both software and hardware. Let's see what the future brings but the industry is far from "Fine"

I don't think the market is shrinking. I think more people than ever are sticking with last gen because they have no reason to upgrade. Almost all the top played games are also available on last gen. Has there ever been a console gen where are all the top played games are still available on last gen?
 
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Maybe, you haven't quite understood what I am saying here. I am saying Xbox flatlining, and these users are not going to Playstation. The market is shrinking drastically. If Sony see's further declines over the next few years its going to be bad for the games industry. They need to deliver some serious system selling games to push sales. Channels are stuffed with stock, shipments are slowing. Games cost magnitudes more to develop than they did on PS4, they can't just match PS4 sales in both software and hardware. Let's see what the future brings but the industry is far from "Fine"
Ah yes, TPNDE* Disease, I see it all the time on GAF

*Terminally Pretending Nintendo Doesn't Exist
 

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
Then I don't understand why you would think "the market" is shrinking when you can simply add up Sony + Nintendo and see the console market is as healthy as it has ever been

Nintendo is about to drop the Switch 2 and Sony is about to drop the PS5 Pro too

The folly is thinking that unique hemisphere of awesome isn't competition for PlayStation and Xbox.

So, sony and microsoft have lost sales to switch.

Makes sense for games like fortnite and younger audience I guess.
 

pasterpl

Member
You confess that you don't know what you're talking about but that doesn't stop you from putting out rubbish analysis.

Sony's numbers are first off probably more conservative now that they see the tailwinds of PS5 demand have cooled.

Their forecasts are generally conservative. They forecast the exact same number of PS4s in the equivalent year when the PS4 sold 19 million rather than 18 million.

You clearly don't know how forecasting works.

That they're only expecting hardware sales to be down 13.5% YoY without Spider-Man 2 and some of the aforementioned tailwinds, it's clear Sony is expecting considerable sales for PS5 Pro to bolster the otherwise fading PS5 sales. Their projections will become much more clear after Q1.

They were down 29% YoY from Q4 but aren't expecting to drop a further 29% YoY for the entire fiscal year compared to 2023. It's much more steady decline, despite Hogwarts Legacy and Spider-Man 2
I do forecasts on daily basis for more complex products than consoles. You obviously are showing you bias. Stock market companies always try to show positive numbets or spin figures so they look as such, this is to please investors. Otherwise everyone would be under projecting to make sure they overdeliver. ‘Underpromise and overdeliver” works in media planning when you want to impress the client, but it doesn’t work in stock market - publicly listed companies as missing targets and estimating decreases leads to drop in share values and company capitalisation. This makes shareholders unhappy. 29% projected decrease is quite substantial and if Sony publishes this in their official financial statements it means that they don’t see anything that might reverse that Short term. Long term is other thing completely.

Looking at the wider market and what we are hearing from other companies console market as a whole is suffering slowdown. Time for new gen.
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
I do forecasts on daily basis for more complex products than consoles. You obviously are showing you bias. Stock market companies always try to show positive numbets or spin figures so they look as such, this is to please investors. Otherwise everyone would be under projecting to make sure they overdeliver. ‘Underpromise and overdeliver” works in media planning when you want to impress the client, but it doesn’t work in stock market - publicly listed companies as missing targets and estimating decreases leads to drop in share values and company capitalisation. This makes shareholders unhappy. 29% projected decrease is quite substantial and if Sony publishes this in their official financial statements it means that they don’t see anything that might reverse that Short term. Long term is other thing completely.

Looking at the wider market and what we are hearing from other companies console market as a whole is suffering slowdown. Time for new gen.

You definitely don't.

You should know that they aren't aiming to underpromise and overdeliver. You try to be as accurate as you can based on the factors you have available to you. But you definitely lean towards underpromising than overpromising. If you underpromise too much, your stock is still going to be impacted by the lack of expected results.

The example that I gave before is that Sony put the exact same expected forecast in for the PS4 in the equivalent year but rather than selling 18 they sold 19 million. It's just an estimate based on a multitude of unknowns.

You're the only one here who is biased.
 

bender

What time is it?
So, sony and microsoft have lost sales to switch.

Makes sense for games like fortnite and younger audience I guess.

There are factors to consider (misaligned launches, Nintendo consolidating their handheld/console business, the rise of mobile gaming, PC gaming growth, etc.) but it seems like the market for consoles is somewhere between 200-275 million units worldwide and that's remained stable since the PS2 era. With the exception of the PS3, Sony's been north of 100 million units with all of their consoles and it looks like they are on the same track for the PS5. Nintendo's been on a tick tock cycle of success since that PS2 Era: Cube (~21M) -> Wii (~101M) -> Wii U (~13M) -> Switch (~140M). I expect the break that cycle with Switch 2 but I also think it's fair to expect them to fall back to earth more than a little bit. Microsoft has probably lost sales to everyone at this point and not just Nintendo.
 
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HeWhoWalks

Gold Member
There are factors to consider (misaligned launches, Nintendo consolidating their handheld/console business, the rise of mobile gaming, PC gaming growth, etc.) but it seems like the market for consoles is somewhere between 200-275 million units worldwide and that's remained stable since the PS2 era. With the exception of the PS3, Sony's been north of 100 million units with all of their consoles and it looks like they are on the same track for the PS5. Nintendo's been on a tick tock cycle for for success since that PS2 Era: Cube (~21M) -> Wii (~101M) -> Wii U (~13M) -> (~140M). I expect the break that cycle with Switch 2 but I also think it's fair to expect them to fall back to earth more than a little bit. Microsoft has probably lost sales to everyone at this point and not just Nintendo.
Exxxxxactly.
 

HeWhoWalks

Gold Member
where did I say that I expect continuous growth? Many Sony fans in this thread expect that. I do expect spikes when ps5 finally will get permanent price cut and when the pro releases along with some traditional Sony games, but nothing substantial. we are now closer to end of this gen so sales will be slowing down. I seriously expect new gen announcement in the next 2 years.
Growth over 20.8m? Who in this thread expressed that?
 

pasterpl

Member
You definitely don'
You should know that they aren't aiming to underpromise and overdeliver. You try to be as accurate as you can based on the factors you have available to you. But you definitely lean towards underpromising than overpromising. If you underpromise too much, your stock is still going to be impacted by the lack of expected results.

The example that I gave before is that Sony put the exact same expected forecast in for the PS4 in the equivalent year but rather than selling 18 they sold 19 million. It's just an estimate based on a multitude of unknowns.

You're the only one here who is biased.
You don’t know what I do for a living, but but are biased so much that cannot accept different point of view. Look at Sony stock in the last month, year, 5 days etc. Also remember that the initial target was 25M consoles which was adjusted to 21M which was still missed by small amount but still, it was missed. At the same time they had the best results in history driven by software Helldivers 2 which is best selling sony game 12m units in 12 weeks. This will only push Sony to do day 1 on PC and more GaaS, the whole fubar with require]ing PSN might impact them moving forward as well. I think that that 18M forecast takes into consideration that more day 1 games will be released on `PC moving forward.
 

Vroadstar

Member
Wake up boys, new senjutsu pack dropped







Oh, what a delightful surprise! This noble warrior graced us with his presence on GAF before being banned, spewing the same or similar delusions about his favorite plastic box, and his buddies here liking his post
Kate Mckinnon Hello GIF by Saturday Night Live
 
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MrA

Member
Foamstars, Rise of the Ronin and that game with tits were all critical and commercial Flops. Missed hardware targets with downgrades forecast. Hope everything is OK at Sony.
Stellar blade (which awesome by the way. Everyone should buy it) is this q1 , not part of q4

Also, q4 last year a bananas record quarter, 4.5 million is still an excellent q1
 

RCU005

Member
This is not surprising. There is no hype at all about new games. PS Studios is dead silent, and even FF7 Rebirth couldn't sell well enough.

I believe people are getting tired of remakes/remasters, samey games and open world everywhere. Where is the creativity, the new IPs, games that look like actual new gen, and not PS4?
 

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
This Gen is like a pretty decent athlete running a hurdle race against a disabled athlete with no legs and one arm in a wheel chair.........

Then there's the nintendo switch which is like the finest stallion jumping over three hurdles in one bound.
 

Alan Wake

Member
This generation feels weird. Like it hasn't really started yet. It has nothing new to offfer, not much exciting going on. Xbox is tanking, PS5 doing well but I haven't used mine much. There are good games but the wow-experiences are lacking for me so far.
 
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This generation feels weird. Like it hasn't really started yet. It has nothing new to offfer, not much exciting going on. Xbox is tanking, PS5 doing well but I haven't used mine much. There are good games but the wow-experiences are lacking for me so far.
That's because apart from a few great games we haven't had the great titles that truly push these machines yet. Yes Xbox is not selling great but they have a formidable amount of first-party games in development and I'm expecting some amazing games to come from them over the next 2 years.

The big disappointment (apart from Insomniac) is PS first-party studio's being completely mismanaged this generation and that's left alot of their talent way behind but its coming.

Last but not least we have next year the GOTG releasing in GTA VI and that's going to be a game release like no other, that looks and feels next-gen.
 
That's because apart from a few great games we haven't had the great titles that truly push these machines yet. Yes Xbox is not selling great but they have a formidable amount of first-party games in development and I'm expecting some amazing games to come from them over the next 2 years.

The big disappointment (apart from Insomniac) is PS first-party studio's being completely mismanaged this generation and that's left alot of their talent way behind but its coming.

Last but not least we have next year the GOTG releasing in GTA VI and that's going to be a game release like no other, that looks and feels next-gen.

The disappointment with PS studios was naughty dog cocking up their attempt at multiplayer. Their first party studios by and large haven't been mismanaged. That's just disingenuous
 

Alan Wake

Member
That's because apart from a few great games we haven't had the great titles that truly push these machines yet. Yes Xbox is not selling great but they have a formidable amount of first-party games in development and I'm expecting some amazing games to come from them over the next 2 years.
That's what we've been hoping for quite some time now. But game after game disappoint. Halo Infinite, Forza Motorsport, Starfield, Redfall... They have a ton of studios now but do they deliver? They mismanage their own studios, and the answer is not buying even more studios but learing how to manage those you already own.
 
I don't know if it was financially a smart decision to port to PC. Good for consumers? Absolutely? Good for Sony? Probably not, since the reasons to own a PlayStation are shrinking. (to about zero soon) Since I don't care if Sony does or doesn't make money I'm happy for the change, but it was an odd choice to say the least. Microsoft makes money with PCs, it far more logical a move with them. Sony though? Did they just blindly copy Microsoft without giving it any thought at all lol?

Doesn't help at all that Sony First party has been doing horribly recently, except Santa Monica and Arrowhead Game Studios. (though again, the latter is on PC)
 
The disappointment with PS studios was naughty dog cocking up their attempt at multiplayer. Their first party studios by and large haven't been mismanaged. That's just disingenuous
Where are they then? And Naughty Dog were put on something they had no experience or passion for. They make outstanding narrative driven SP games and they were supposed to make a MP component for TLOU2 not a standalone GaaS title. Bungie hit with big layoffs and reduced profits.

Still no PS Showcase announcement and we're closing in on June. If there is one God forbid it's like their last one, possibly the worst Showcase in living memory.
 
Where are they then? And Naughty Dog were put on something they had no experience or passion for. They make outstanding narrative driven SP games and they were supposed to make a MP component for TLOU2 not a standalone GaaS title. Bungie hit with big layoffs and reduced profits.

Still no PS Showcase announcement and we're closing in on June. If there is one God forbid it's like their last one, possibly the worst Showcase in living memory.

Most of their studios have already released something in the last four years.
 
PS5 down 29%. Xbox down 25%

Look Xbox is better

Explaining Fran Healy GIF by Travis
The hilarious thing is Sony's drop is off of the best 4th quarter EVER, which means this 4th quarter is still damn good compared to any other's from the past. Xbox, on the other hand, is down from a very bad 4th quarter last year, so is even worse. But, those green rats are deciding to stay onboard a sinking ship and point their pistols at a warship that they perceive has a small chink in the side, saying the console market is doomed.

Reminds of when Nintendo fans went all doom and gloom when the Wii U flopped hard out of the gate. They kept saying that if the follow up to the Wii was performing this badly, what hope did the PS4 and XBO have, so the market must be dying.
 
That's what we've been hoping for quite some time now. But game after game disappoint. Halo Infinite, Forza Motorsport, Starfield, Redfall... They have a ton of studios now but do they deliver? They mismanage their own studios, and the answer is not buying even more studios but learing how to manage those you already own.
Apart from Redfall none of those games are terrible, they need or needed some work but nowhere near a catastrophe. I suppose you could completely ignore the Forza Horizon games, Flightsim, Psychonauts 2.
Most of their studios have already released something in the last four years.
What remakes or remakes of remasters? Apart from Insomniac its been awful and you know it.
 

Klosshufvud

Member
The attach rate seems to be pretty awful right? Sony tends to boost about their high attach rates but are quiet this gen. The experiment with $70 games that don't go on proper sale for years have failed miserably.
 
It follows the PS4 sales trend, around this time PS4 sales declined yearly as well. I think Sony assumed that demand would pick up after the initial shortages but it doesn't look like it has. A price drop could probably do it, but it appears Sony wants to make a profit on console sales.

PS4/PS5 sales look close though.
If the Price of the base model stays like that ps4 ps5 will almost the same sales wise in the end.But if the lower the price of the ps5 I think the ps5 will outsell the ps4
 

Alan Wake

Member
Apart from Redfall none of those games are terrible, they need or needed some work but nowhere near a catastrophe. I suppose you could completely ignore the Forza Horizon games, Flightsim, Psychonauts 2.

What remakes or remakes of remasters? Apart from Insomniac its been awful and you know it.
They did not meet expectations. I loved Halo Infinite, think it had a great campaign. But it did not succeed in the way Microsoft had anticipated and the way it had needed to in order increase hype for the franchise.
 

nial

Gold Member
The attach rate seems to be pretty awful right? Sony tends to boost about their high attach rates but are quiet this gen. The experiment with $70 games that don't go on proper sale for years have failed miserably.
What a statement. We do know that even with overall less units sold on FP software, they've been vastly growing in terms of revenue this gen.
 

yurinka

Member
Then I don't understand why you would think "the market" is shrinking when you can simply add up Sony + Nintendo and see the console market is as healthy as it has ever been

Nintendo is about to drop the Switch 2 and Sony is about to drop the PS5 Pro too
The market isn't shrinking, only the Xbox market share is shrinking.

The attach rate seems to be pretty awful right? Sony tends to boost about their high attach rates but are quiet this gen. The experiment with $70 games that don't go on proper sale for years have failed miserably.
What a statement. We do know that even with overall less units sold on FP software, they've been vastly growing in terms of revenue this gen.

Yes, their software revenue grew every year and that they released a sales record breaking 1st party game in 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024.

Regarding the attach rate or lifetime valye / average revenue per user must be (launch aligned) at gaming history record levels, better than in any other console ever, because it was at record levels last year and this year they improved hardware, software, services and accesories revenue.

I assume they'll mention it in their Business Segments Meeting this May 30th.

This is what they said there last year:

image.png

image.png

image.png


Please notice that nowadays addons and gamesubs represent a huge portion of the game revenue, so attach rate became less important as KPI. Specially when considering there are many F2P or super discounted games games. Now it's more important to look instead at console user spend / lifetime value (both shown above, they are the same: the money spent by the player in everything other than in the hardware).

So, sony and microsoft have lost sales to switch.

Makes sense for games like fortnite and younger audience I guess.

Nah, Sony has a bigger userbase than Switch and generates way more sales. Sony keeps increasing their market share. Sales that keep growing every year. Regarding hardware units, PS5 is selling a lot of them to new players: around 60M players play every month on PS5 and 60M more still are in PS4, so being that engaged will make the jump somewhere later. Maybe once crossgen games stop being released or supported in previous gen, or when the economy allows them to do so.
 
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We are already trending down on hardware sales and it still feels the Gen hasn't started, I may be wrong but it feels by this date in PS3 lifecycle we already had MGS4!
 

Klosshufvud

Member
83T4qz6.jpeg

Read second point, from FY 2022 Consolidated Financial Results.

So?
I feel like it's very odd that you point to a FY where GoW Ragnarök released as an indication of general market trends. Revenue is such a loose term. Remember how Xbox' revenue skyrocketed entirely due to acquisition of Activision? Revenue is also boosted by subscriptions and MTX. I find it worrying that PS5 has the lowest attach rate in PS history. Not even PS1/PS2 were this low despite rampant piracy. I think it's unhealthy that a console has only 1.2 games sold per console. Something is wrong here.
 
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