ChorizoPicozo
Member
GaaS
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Tom Warren “Sony’s PS5 sales down 29% yoy in the recent Q” (forecast FY24 to be lower than FY23)
- Thread starter ArtHands
- Start date
yurinka
Member
PS5 is performing better than PS3, it's trending down because it's part of the console lifecycle sales curve:
As can be seen here PS5 is doing pretty much the PS4 numbers excluding the FY it got supply constrained, so it's fair to assume it will continue being the case specially if they find a way to reduce costs to a point they can allow a similar hardware price cut as PS4 had (very unlikely). And well, as can be seen PS4 hardware sales dried up on its 7th, but active userbase, engament and software sales continue super strong on its 11th year. Something it's also expected to happen in PS5.
As can be seen in the image, the 18M consoles forecast for FY24 made by Sony makes total sense seeing it peaked during FY23, but wouldn't be rare to see it doing a million or two more. And also repeating almost the same FY24 number in FY25.
P.S.: Sony did stop sharing yearly PS3 sales in their fiscal reports on its 7th year with the PS4 release.
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nial
Gold Member
FY 2023 will not be as different with Spider-Man and Helldivers 2. While FY 2024 *could* suffer with the lack of major franchise sequels (that is, ignoring the chance of new or more obscure IPs exploding in popularity), it's a strategy that has worked so far for Sony.
I don't see any correlation between this and specifically first-party software, which does not include subs or MTX.
Huh?
We literally have this leak.
PlayStation 5 Surpasses PS4 in Average Gameplay Time, Platform Retention and Various Other Factors, Leaked Data Reveals
Here are the numbers.
Klosshufvud
Member
I find those figures to be odd (94% vs 92%). Don't we already know that PS4 had a way higher attach rate than a mere 0.94 games sold per system? That seems awfully low and the number is also lowballing the PS5 numbers to less games sold than actual systems. That seems inaccurate and I'm not sure that leak is talking about the same thing we are.FY 2023 will not be as different with Spider-Man and Helldivers 2. While FY 2024 *could* suffer with the lack of major franchise sequels (that is, ignoring the chance of new or more obscure IPs exploding in popularity), it's a strategy that has worked so far for Sony.
I don't see any correlation between this and specifically first-party software, which does not include subs or MTX.
Huh?
We literally have this leak.
PlayStation 5 Surpasses PS4 in Average Gameplay Time, Platform Retention and Various Other Factors, Leaked Data Reveals
Here are the numbers.in.ign.com
PS4 Has a Very High Software Attach Rate, Average Player Owns Around Ten Games
That's a lot
www.pushsquare.com
This says PS4 had an attach rate of near 1000%. Ten times more games sold than systems.
Lord Malachite
Member
These numbers for PS5 feel very natural. We're in the middle of the generation now, the system is easily accessible to anyone who wants one, and quite frankly, there's never been a worse time to buy a PS5.
The PS5 Pro is due out this fall and is one of the worst-kept secrets in the industry. The launch of this mid-gen refresh will likely cause a price reduction in the PS5 slim and the Pro will be the new elite model. Anyone who wants a PS5 and hasn't bought one is better off waiting for the Pro, or the price drop on the Slim. Otherwise you're just paying top dollar today for a soon-to-be-outclassed model. It makes little sense not to wait until this holiday season.
Given those market conditions, it's natural for the sales to begin to taper off. PS5 is still outselling all of it's competition handily despite that current handicap, which is the bigger story.
The PS5 Pro is due out this fall and is one of the worst-kept secrets in the industry. The launch of this mid-gen refresh will likely cause a price reduction in the PS5 slim and the Pro will be the new elite model. Anyone who wants a PS5 and hasn't bought one is better off waiting for the Pro, or the price drop on the Slim. Otherwise you're just paying top dollar today for a soon-to-be-outclassed model. It makes little sense not to wait until this holiday season.
Given those market conditions, it's natural for the sales to begin to taper off. PS5 is still outselling all of it's competition handily despite that current handicap, which is the bigger story.
Fabieter
Member
So casuals who are price sensitive are rather wait for ps5 pro which is likely to cost more than the base console
HerjansEagleFeeder
Member
Not by a normal person's standards. But we are talking about publicly traded companies here. Shareholders demand infinite growth. Just ask yourself what that will spell for the future of the home console business.
Fabieter
Member
They need a proper longterm plan to remain a major player. They could easily lose that status with enough stupid decisions.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
The market isn't shrinking, only the Xbox market share is shrinking.
Yes, their software revenue grew every year and that they released a sales record breaking 1st party game in 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024.
Regarding the attach rate or lifetime valye / average revenue per user must be (launch aligned) at gaming history record levels, better than in any other console ever, because it was at record levels last year and this year they improved hardware, software, services and accesories revenue.
I assume they'll mention it in their Business Segments Meeting this May 30th.
This is what they said there last year:
Please notice that nowadays addons and gamesubs represent a huge portion of the game revenue, so attach rate became less important as KPI. Specially when considering there are many F2P or super discounted games games. Now it's more important to look instead at console user spend / lifetime value (both shown above, they are the same: the money spent by the player in everything other than in the hardware).
Nah, Sony has a bigger userbase than Switch and generates way more sales. Sony keeps increasing their market share. Sales that keep growing every year. Regarding hardware units, PS5 is selling a lot of them to new players: around 60M players play every month on PS5 and 60M more still are in PS4, so being that engaged will make the jump somewhere later. Maybe once crossgen games stop being released or supported in previous gen, or when the economy allows them to do so.
So everyone just assuming all those ps4 players are going to buy a ps5.
Ok
yurinka
Member
Not all, but most of these 60M+ who are still play PS4 monthly 11 years after launch.
Btw, PS4 metrics a year or two ago were in their all time high regarding several engagement metrics. Players who are still there play and buy a lot. And we're in PS4's 11th year, as can be seen in the hardware sales I shared a few posts ago its hardware sales stopped being big on its 7th.
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Fabieter
Member
I know some of them and they migrate mostly to switch and just play genshin on the ps4 rn. It's highly likely that the switch 2 will be able to play genshin so some of them will definitely leave the ps ecosystem.
Woopah
Member
Santa Monica, Guerrilla Games, Team Asobi, Firesprite, Housemarque, Polyphony Digital, Sucker Punch and San Diego have all released games in the last 4 years that were not remakes or remasters.
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ChorizoPicozo
Member
Fabieter
Member
so... are you suggesting all those PS4 players are going to buy an xbox, then?
I think switch 2 and pc is gonna be a good option tho. Yea they won't jump to xbox but they don't have to.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
You should listen to Kyle's last interview with Piscatella.
KimDongHwan
Member
Sorry this is what I meant in my comment, that for other past consoles, when we got to this stage of the lifecycle we had already seen all the amazing exclusives and then some more, but this Gen it feels we are still playing launch games (except for the third party games which have been really good)PS5 is performing better than PS3, it's trending down because it's part of the console lifecycle sales curve:
As can be seen here PS5 is doing pretty much the PS4 numbers excluding the FY it got supply constrained, so it's fair to assume it will continue being the case specially if they find a way to reduce costs to a point they can allow a similar hardware price cut as PS4 had (very unlikely). And well, as can be seen PS4 hardware sales dried up on its 7th, but active userbase, engament and software sales continue super strong on its 11th year. Something it's also expected to happen in PS5.
As can be seen in the image, the 18M consoles forecast for FY24 made by Sony makes total sense seeing it peaked during FY23, but wouldn't be rare to see it doing a million or two more. And also repeating almost the same FY24 number in FY25.
P.S.: Sony did stop sharing yearly PS3 sales in their fiscal reports on its 7th year with the PS4 release.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
so... are you suggesting all those PS4 players are going to buy an xbox, then?
Of course I do.....
Hahaha
Fabieter
Member
I found that intervew. It's 40 mins long, which part?
yurinka
Member
Well, in PS3 or PS4 we saw most of their bigger hitters in the 2nd half. Once devs start to master the hardware and can spend a big money there (as would be today not making the game crossgame nd since the start focusing on pushing current gen hardware) once there's a big enough userbase some years after launch.
nial
Gold Member
It was surely a weird way to measure the data, but from software shipments alone (286M for PS4 + PS5 in FY 2023 versus 234M for PS4 in FY 2016) you know that it's not that behind of PS4, if it is at all (PS4 is mostly sustained by F2P stuff these days).I find those figures to be odd (94% vs 92%). Don't we already know that PS4 had a way higher attach rate than a mere 0.94 games sold per system? That seems awfully low and the number is also lowballing the PS5 numbers to less games sold than actual systems. That seems inaccurate and I'm not sure that leak is talking about the same thing we are.
PS4 Has a Very High Software Attach Rate, Average Player Owns Around Ten Games
That's a lot
This says PS4 had an attach rate of near 1000%. Ten times more games sold than systems.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
there are several parts.
8:38-13:00 Nintendo is it's own shit
28:00-31:00 PC Gaming is potato gaming
nial
Gold Member
What's up with this concern trolling? Yes, it's perfectly reasonable to expect most of PS4's install base to migrate to PS5 when hardware sales between both consoles are almost 1:1.
StereoVsn
Gold Member
nial
Gold Member
They're doing a bad job, then.Are Sony intentionally starving the PS5 of games just so when the ARM powered PS6 comes out people won’t complain about lack of BC?
simpatico
Member
As PC only, I remember being constantly pulled to buy a PS4. Have not had such pull to buy a PS5.
nial
Gold Member
Ok?As PC only, I remember being constantly pulled to buy a PS4. Have not had such pull to buy a PS5.
Fabieter
Member
Will watch those specific parts, well I disagree with nintendo anyway. Switch 2 will have 99% of asian games so to say there is no impact on ps is stupid. I know people who will happily complete Switch to nintendo once everything is over.
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Deerock71
Member
Could be worse
Fabieter
Member
Oh my sweet summer child.
Ass of Can Whooping
Member
It's still spring dickhead
nial
Gold Member
What a well elaborated response.
Never seen someone this deranged over a CEO announcement before.
Fabieter
Member
Oh my sweet spring child.
It's not like they're Xboxes lol
Klosshufvud
Member
Welp I read the original tweet all wrong. They referred to software sales in a single quarter. That lines up with your numbers.
Deerock71
Member
That seems to coincide with the Wii to PS3/360 charts when they were trying to say the PS3 would win back in the day. It honestly looked like the Wii lost userbase in it's final year.
Orutisu Furio
Member
A lot of PlayStation games are releasing on PC. The allure of owning a PlayStation isn’t like it used to be.
Lucifers Beard
Member
How embarrassing...
Really though, tell me what is so special about Hellblade 2 that makes you so happy to see your friends list light up with them playing it? I'm genuinely curious, as it doesn't look like the next big thing to get people excited about gaming. In fact I'd say that the average casual gamer won't give a shit about Hellblade outside of the graphics because there isn't a whole lot of game to actually play.
I say this as someone that has no interest in platform warring as I'll play a game on any platform, providing the game looks good enough. I just find it absurd that you would raise these games as a point to make about PS games not doing so well (when that's not entirely true) and Xbox have a track record of releasing duds.
ArtHands
Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
There are other reasons to buy a console. Like plug and play, PS plus and shits.
AyraSutoraifu
Member
The PC glorification here sometimes is shameful…
drganon
Member
Never underestimate the retarded superiority complex of pcmr dipshits like art.
Represent.
Represent(ative) of bad opinions
Good. Release some fucking games or at least announce them. Time to stop coasting
You have nothing announced first party wise, why should people buy your console?
You have nothing announced first party wise, why should people buy your console?
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mayham2199
Member
It's under 1 million from being above the PS4. Doesn't seem like they lost much allure.
Woopah
Member
They have released several first party games this year and have several first party games announced, but they do need to announce more at their upcoming showcase.