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[entremet]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-doing-worse-than-romney-did-among-white-voters/

Donald Trump’s strategy in this campaign has been fairly clear from the beginning: Drive up Republican support among white voters in order to compensate for the GOP’s shrinking share among the growing nonwhite portion of the electorate. And Trump has succeeded in overperforming among a certain slice of white voters, those without a college degree. But overall, the strategy isn’t working. Trump has a smaller lead among white voters than Mitt Romney did in 2012, and Trump’s margin seems to be falling from where it was when the general election began.

Four years ago, Romney beat President Obama among white voters by 17 percentage points, according to pre-election polls. That was the largest winning margin among white voters for any losing presidential candidate since at least 1948. Of course, even if Trump did just as well as Romney did, it would help him less, given that the 2016 electorate will probably be more diverse that 2012’s. And to win — even if the electorate remained as white as it was four years ago — Trump would need a margin of 22 percentage points or more among white voters.

But Trump isn’t even doing as well as Romney. Trump is winning white voters by just 13 percentage points, according to an average of the last five live-interviewer national surveys.1 He doesn’t reach the magic 22 percentage point margin in a single one of these polls.

Seems like a slam dunk for Hilary if this holds.

Thanks, white people.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Good thing he has a great relationship with the blacks

 

[MetroidPrimeRib]

But the blacks and the gays love him. Just ask them, believe me.

 

[Escape Goat]

Good thing he has a great relationship with the blacks

His black only gets to vote once.

 

[DorkLord54]

Good thing he has a great relationship with the blacks

Remember, he loves Mexicans, too!

 

[Slayven]

But what about those secret trump supporters? Ones too afraid to admit it on an anonymous poll

 

[Stinkles]

His black only gets to vote once.

Look at him, over there.

 

[ElectricBlanketFire]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-doing-worse-than-romney-did-among-white-voters/

Seems like a slam dunk for Hilary if this holds.

DON'T JINX IT.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

I realize Hillary has a pretty solid lead in the polls.

But I don't understand how Trump is apparently doing so bad even with whites, let alone minorities, that polling isn't showing a complete blowout at every level.

Makes no sense to me.

 

[entremet]

But what about those secret trump supporters? Ones too afraid to admit it on an anonymous poll

That's the Scott Adams thesis. That reasonable Trump voters are underrepresented and hiding out of fear and backlash.

 

[Infinite]

Thank you white folk.

 

[jmdajr]

But what about those secret trump supporters? Ones too afraid to admit it on an anonymous poll

I hear this a lot.

TRUMP HOPE

 

[Slayven]

I realize Hillary has a pretty solid lead in the polls.

But I don't understand how Trump is apparently doing so bad even with whites, let alone minorities, that polling isn't showing a complete blowout at every level.

Makes no sense to me.

40 % of the population is going to vote R just because there is an R.

 

[Shaanyboi]

His black only gets to vote once.

Look at him, over there.

Lol

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

As a white person, the notion that Trump would be president if it were up to us is really embarrassing.

 

[Slayven]

That's the Scott Adams thesis. That reasonable Trump voters are underrepresented and hiding out of fear and backlash.

I hear this a lot.

TRUMP HOPE

And I call bullshit on that.

I mean there will be a few. But not enough to mean anything

 

[Tatsumaki Senpuukyaku!]

How is Trump anywhere close to Hilary in the polls if he's doing worse than Romney with white people and every minority is vehemently against him?

 

[Gordon Shumway]

Thanks, white people!

 

[entremet]

How is Trump anywhere close to Hilary in the polls if he's doing worse than Romney with white people and every minority is vehemently against him?

There's a lot of white people in the US, man.

 

[Jon Carter]

He wins among white voters? Incredible that he doesn't lose with every demographic.

 

[Crimson_Echidna]

His black only gets to vote once.

SadBenCarson.gif

 

[CazTGG]

What are the chances that the second or third presidential debate will drive these numbers up or down in an for Hillary, assuming Trump attends either of them?

 

[Future]

You'd think it embarrassing that a candidate really only appeals to the less educated

 

[Tatsumaki Senpuukyaku!]

There's a lot of white people in the US, man.

Yeah but Romney lost by a relatively comfortable margin and he had more white support (and I'd assume more minority support).

 

[NoblesseOblige]

White people getting better finally?

 

[Shao Kahn on the Lawn]

His black only gets to vote once.

2/3 in 2020 if Trump gets his way.

 

[Quixzlizx]

How is Trump anywhere close to Hilary in the polls if he's doing worse than Romney with white people and every minority is vehemently against him?

Either projected minority turnout is decreasing from 2012 levels, or some minorities are claiming they're voting Johnson/Stein at the moment.

 

[entremet]

Yeah but Romney lost by a relatively comfortable margin and he had more white support (and I'd assume more minority support).

EC versus polling, tho. Different methodologies.

 

[PeskyToaster]

That's the Scott Adams thesis. That reasonable Trump voters are underrepresented and hiding out of fear and backlash.

Hasn't Trump historically underperformed his polling numbers? At least in the primary that's what I thought happened, I haven't looked though.

 

[Kite]

Anecdotal only, but I grew up in an upper-middle class mostly white neighborhood. There were Bush and Romney lawn signs everywhere during those elections. The number of Trump ones I have seen can be counted on one hand (same as Hillary lol). College-educated whites don't seem to like Trump, have no interest in the libertarians, and the ones I've spoken to don't plan on voting this election (but I'm sure they'll be bitching about Hillary for at least 4 years).

 

[wildfire]

How is Trump anywhere close to Hilary in the polls if he's doing worse than Romney with white people and every minority is vehemently against him?

The number of expected minority voters is forecasted to be lower than when Obama ran both times.

Hasn't Trump historically underperformed his polling numbers? At least in the primary that's what I thought happened, I haven't looked though.

No.

 

[Mr. Giggles]

Good thing he has a great relationship with the blacks

And Mexicans too.

 

[gutter_trash]

But what about those secret trump supporters? Ones too afraid to admit it on an anonymous poll

for every secret Trump voter, there are secret Republican Female voters who are voting for Clinton without telling their angry white husband

 

[Snaku]

 

[smurfx]

good time to start losing white voters as he's near historic lows with asian, black and hispanics.

 

[bangbang i'm a timpani]

538, writing those eye popping headlines

 

[zelas]

Increasing the amount of minority voters voting against you and not even making up there difference with whites. White power strategy not working out so well is it.

How is Trump anywhere close to Hilary in the polls if he's doing worse than Romney with white people and every minority is vehemently against him?

Independent and undecided vote share are hire this cycle. A significant amount of Obama 2012 voters arent showing up as well.

 

[EatinOlives]

Clinton is also at 78.8% chance to win currently according to Fivethirtyeight's prediction. And they've consistently put out the most pessimistic forecasts, so that's saying something.

If this holds Trump is done. Straight up. Absentee and early voting are really soon (start next week for many states, I think?), and Trump is at his worst since his kerfuffle with the Khan family.

 

[Frozenprince]

At this rate he might not break 170.

This could be a slaughter the likes of which we've never seen before if these numbers play out.

 

[Pai Pai Master]

The great white hope

 

[Chamber]

White people

 

[Robdraggoo]

The number of expected minority voters is forecasted to be lower than when Obama ran both times.



No.

How though. They have to hate trump more than McCain or Romney. Trump is a legitimate threat to them where the others weren't.

 

[Servbot24]

The idea that a majority of white people, regardless of the percentage, are voting for him is an embarrassment.

 

[HStallion]

But what about those secret trump supporters? Ones too afraid to admit it on an anonymous poll

Dead People can't vote.

 

[3N16MA]

His black friend will spread the word to all the other blacks who live on the same street.

Trump loves the blacks.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

At this rate he might not break 170.

This could be a slaughter the likes of which we've never seen before if these numbers play out.

...1984? 1988? 1964?

 

[GitarooMan]

The idea that a majority of white people, regardless of the percentage, are voting for him is an embarrassment.

Absolutely.

 

[SecretDan]

Is this new information?

Feel like we have known this for months.

 

[GhaleonEB]

He wins among white voters? Incredible that he doesn't lose with every demographic.

IIRC, he's winning big with white men, and losing white women. I think white men is the only demographic he's winning.

As a white man, it's really embarrassing.

Is this new information?

Feel like we have known this for months.

It's a new analysis based on current polling, and particularly relevant given the proximity to election day; it's unlikely to change before then.

 

[Slayven]

Yeah but Romney lost by a relatively comfortable margin and he had more white support (and I'd assume more minority support).

Romney had 5-6% black vote. Trump has 2%

Clinton is also at 78.8% chance to win currently according to Fivethirtyeight's prediction. And they've consistently put out the most pessimistic forecasts, so that's saying something.

If this holds Trump is done. Straight up. Absentee and early voting are really soon (start next week for many states, I think?), and Trump is at his worst since his kerfuffle with the Khan family.

Early voting already started in a lot of states