Trump’s Doing Worse Than Romney Did Among White Voters (FiveThirtyEight)

Status
Not open for further replies.
orthodoxy1095 said:
Is it possible that people aren't lying but that demographic is just plain underrepresented in the polls period?
Click to expand...

It's not that I think people are lying, it's that I think it's ridiculous to think there's an entire "hidden" new demographic just flying under the radar the entire time. One that's bigger than all the minorities he's lost combined. The amount of people required would be tantamount to a new undiscovered voting demographic, which is just a dumb thing to believe.
 
entremet said:
That's the Scott Adams thesis. That reasonable Trump voters are underrepresented and hiding out of fear and backlash.
Click to expand...

Scott Adams is an idiot who thinks he's smarter than he really is, though.
 
FStubbs said:
Nope. Look at the absolute worship of Ronald Reagan.

349px-ElectoralCollege1984.svg.png
Click to expand...

As a Minnesotan, I swell with pride every time I see this electoral map.
 
There's no way the GOP ignores the results if they turn out to be this bad. They have to change, they can't be this crazy.
 
Juan29.zapata said:
There's no way the GOP ignores the results if they turn out to be this bad. They have to change, they can't be this crazy.
Click to expand...
Trump is such a bad candidate that he'll be easy to write off once he's gone without self-reflection.

Beyond which, the GOP elite has actually tried to moderate on some issues for a while now (e.g., immigration, both during Bush's second term, when it was supposed to be one of the lynchpins of the new conservative majority, and at the start of Obama's second term, when they were trying to save face). The base won't let them.
 
3N16MA said:
His black friend will spread the word to all the other blacks who live on the same street.

Trump loves the blacks.
Click to expand...

How many black voters actually support Trump? All those I work with and know are voting Hillary. The only I'm aware of are the handful of black guests they have on various Fox News panels(and "handful" meaning one per finger on a hand), Ben Carson, and those two black women that appear on Dr. Drew via Skype that say they like Trump cause he "Tells it like it is". Well, and Mike Tyson.

plop said:
Luckily, he's got tremendous support from many, many others.

2016_06_16_10_38_34.jpg
Click to expand...
This photoshooped, right? The Mexicans' profile pic being a Taco Bell... that shit ain't right (ALL that shit ain't right).
 
Juan29.zapata said:
There's no way the GOP ignores the results if they turn out to be this bad. They have to change, they can't be this crazy.
Click to expand...

the gop also can't really ignore the things they've been telling the 40% of the country that'll currently vote for them no matter what for multiple decades. They may wind up going through a nearly identical circus in 4 years if they can't find a way to ease up on the propoganda machine they've helped build.
 
GoldenEye 007 said:
I realize Hillary has a pretty solid lead in the polls.

But I don't understand how Trump is apparently doing so bad even with whites, let alone minorities, that polling isn't showing a complete blowout at every level.

Makes no sense to me.
Click to expand...

Third parties accounted for less than 2% of votes cast in 2012.
 
EatinOlives said:
It's not that I think people are lying, it's that I think it's ridiculous to think there's an entire "hidden" new demographic just flying under the radar the entire time. One that's bigger than all the minorities he's lost combined. The amount of people required would be tantamount to a new undiscovered voting demographic, which is just a dumb thing to believe.
Click to expand...
I guess my question was, is it possible that for any reason the "White w/o a college degree" demo is underrepresented in sampling or if they will overperform historic trends?
 
Rats Off To Ya said:
The GOP can only do so much when they're fighting against the base they created. Nobody in the Republican establishment wanted Donald Trump to happen.
Click to expand...

The party establishment want to tack a more moderate tack on certain issues (particularly immigration reform) to pivot slightly back to center and become more electable for the presidency. Their base won't allow it. And if they spite them, they risk losing a tremendous amount of votes (to say nothing of the establishment Congresspeople or Senators who could find themselves primary'd in their own re-elections).

So they can't win the White House with their base and can't win without them. They're fucked.

orthodoxy1095 said:
I guess my question was, is it possible that for any reason the "White w/o a college degree" demo is underrepresented in sampling or if they will overperform historic trends?
Click to expand...

There was no overperformance of non-college educated whites in the primaries, and there's no evidence of a surge in registrations among this bloc yet. So there's really no reason to think we're about to see a historic turnout of non-educated whites, aside from Trump saying so over and over again because it feels right.
 
Dezzy said:
So Trump posted this Rasmussen national poll thing today. How meaningless is it in reality? Him being in charge makes me nervous.
Click to expand...

Rammussen is known for having a republican lean, a big one. I'd take Trump as only up 2% by them as a good thing for Clinton.
 
This is really relieving to hear, because where I'm living there were barely any signs of Romney support, but there're waves of elderly people with Trump signs in their yard, and I'm terrified that they're going to claim my district.
 
It's pretty crazy to think that more white Americans are going to vote for Trump than Hillary, I always assumed that wouldn't be the case or have Americans always known this to be true?
 
Juan29.zapata said:
There's no way the GOP ignores the results if they turn out to be this bad. They have to change, they can't be this crazy.
Click to expand...

It took like over 9 years for the liberals in Canada to come back and form government and they suffered a massive loss in the 2011 election. The GOP probably needs to experience their own massive loss for them to change what they are doing. I'm not sure if the GOP will experience a massive loss in this election unless you want to count their nominee getting below 45% of the vote in this election while his opponent gets in the low to mid 50's for the popular vote as a massive loss.
 
PKrockin said:
GOP leadership recognized the problem after the 2012 election and tried to convince the party, but they don't have that much control over their own party anymore. The Tea Party Caucus and Trump are massively undermining their influence, and they will have none of this reaching out to minorities and LGBT business. It's a trainwreck.
Click to expand...

I know this, but Trump is way different from Romney.

I'm just in denial. They'll only blame the man, rather their policies and dog-whistling. They'll just be more crazy and block Dems from doing actual progress.
 
That one image of trumps face is so damn unsettling to me. Like you might as well put up a drawing because never has his fat turkey neck cheeto skin colored white circle eyes face looked like that. Fucking anus mouth!!!

On to the topic at hand. This is great news to me. Within the Republican Party, based off of obamas interview other day, its apparent that these politicians have been bullied into this terrible position by their base. Politicians losing their job just from touching Obama and such. Clearly, you reap what you sow so no sympathy from me.

With the republican race, trump only won because the majority of that specific section of the population is large, but clearly we can see that the true majority is against this BS. The people betting on the "chaos candidate" backfired and the only chaos has been within their party.

Hopefully the trump train going off rails causes a massive death toll in a sense towards these conspiracy theory bs websites. I would love to see the Republican Party get chemothrapy to the cancer within them because then MAYBE there will be true competition between the two parties, accelerating the benefits to the American people
 
Excuse my ignorance with this as I live on the other side of the world, and have only followed the whole Trump circus from afar. But I'm wondering if the white folk aren't voting for Trump, then exactly who is, that's somehow keeping him in the running? I mean he seems to have said and done a lot to piss off pretty much all minority groups especially the black and latino communities. They make up a pretty decent chunk of the population too if I understand correctly. He also has seemingly done a lot to dissuade the female vote, which I'm guestimating is somewhere around 50% of the population.

So how the heck is he still in the running and not bombed out completely if he isn't even that popular in the one group he might be? Again, excuse the ignorance, just trying to get my head around it
 
Cracklox said:
Excuse my ignorance with this as I live on the other side of the world, and have only followed the whole Trump circus from afar. But I'm wondering if the white folk aren't voting for Trump, then exactly who is, that's somehow keeping him in the running? I mean he seems to have said and done a lot to piss off pretty much all minority groups especially the black and latino communities. They make up a pretty decent chunk of the population too if I understand correctly. He also has seemingly done a lot to dissuade the female vote, which I'm guestimating is somewhere around 50% of the population.

So how the heck is he still in the running and not bombed out completely if he isn't even that popular in the one group he might be? Again, excuse the ignorance, just trying to get my head around it
Click to expand...

While he doesn't have as much support from the white, there's still a lot of whites in the US. A lot of them
 
Cracklox said:
Excuse my ignorance with this as I live on the other side of the world, and have only followed the whole Trump circus from afar. But I'm wondering if the white folk aren't voting for Trump, then exactly who is, that's somehow keeping him in the running? I mean he seems to have said and done a lot to piss off pretty much all minority groups especially the black and latino communities. They make up a pretty decent chunk of the population too if I understand correctly. He also has seemingly done a lot to dissuade the female vote, which I'm guestimating is somewhere around 50% of the population.

So how the heck is he still in the running and not bombed out completely if he isn't even that popular in the one group he might be? Again, excuse the ignorance, just trying to get my head around it
Click to expand...


White people are still voting Trump. He's still probably going to win the white vote. He just won't win at by the same amount as Romney did, mostly because white women are rejecting Trump in large numbers.
 
Cracklox said:
Excuse my ignorance with this as I live on the other side of the world, and have only followed the whole Trump circus from afar. But I'm wondering if the white folk aren't voting for Trump, then exactly who is, that's somehow keeping him in the running? I mean he seems to have said and done a lot to piss off pretty much all minority groups especially the black and latino communities. They make up a pretty decent chunk of the population too if I understand correctly. He also has seemingly done a lot to dissuade the female vote, which I'm guestimating is somewhere around 50% of the population.

So how the heck is he still in the running and not bombed out completely if he isn't even that popular in the one group he might be? Again, excuse the ignorance, just trying to get my head around it
Click to expand...
I was actually surprised myself when I looked at his numbers among various demographics recently and saw how bad they actually are. I was wondering myself, with Trump losing women and only winning among white men with a not-so-great margin, how can he only be a few points behind Clinton? Here are a few factors I know of that help explain it.

1. Asians are concentrated in non-swing states like California and Washington.
2. Latino and asian turnout is lower than white turnout.
3. Blacks trend so hard Democrat anyway (like 90%) that Trump has nothing to lose by pissing them off except that it makes him more unsavory to other groups.
 
Thanks guys

PKrockin said:
I was actually surprised myself when I looked at his numbers among various demographics recently and saw how bad they actually are. I was wondering myself, with Trump losing women and only winning among white men with a not-so-great margin, how can he only be a few points behind Clinton? Here are a few factors I know of that help explain it.

1. Asians are concentrated in non-swing states like California and Washington.
2. Latino and asian turnout is lower than white turnout.
3. Blacks trend so hard Democrat anyway (like 90%) that Trump has nothing to lose by pissing them off except that it makes him more unsavory to other groups.
Click to expand...

1. Gotcha
2. Hopefully there's some sort of record turnout from those groups for this election. Especially the Latinos who seem to have more reason to hate him then most
3. Thats... actually kinda sad
 
538 will give us a poll tomorrow showing he still has a 60% shot at winning, I'm sure. The polls are swinging hard this time, and the result is I can't take any of them seriously.
 
Peru said:
538 will give us a poll tomorrow showing he still has a 60% shot at winning, I'm sure. The polls are swinging hard this time, and the result is I can't take any of them seriously.
Click to expand...

What polls? I'm not seeing any indication that they're going to swing particularly hard.
 
Peru said:
538 will give us a poll tomorrow showing he still has a 60% shot at winning, I'm sure. The polls are swinging hard this time, and the result is I can't take any of them seriously.
Click to expand...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

They tied in August, but Clinton has led since then. She got a bump after the convention, which faded, and another large bump after the debate, which has not. Her margin has fluctuated but really the state of things hasn't changed much, other than more people making up their mind.
 
Dezzy said:
So Trump posted this Rasmussen national poll thing today. How meaningless is it in reality? Him being in charge makes me nervous.
Click to expand...

I'll admit, I chuckled at "Clinton" being crooked. And yet the snivelling coward can't call her that to her face at the debate.
 
Cracklox said:
Thanks guys



1. Gotcha
2. Hopefully there's some sort of record turnout from those groups for this election. Especially the Latinos who seem to have more reason to hate him then most
3. Thats... actually kinda sad
Click to expand...
Regarding #2, I have seen a few headlines proclaiming big swells of Latino voter registrations this year, so Trump may very well have motivated a bunch of Latinos to get out and vote for the first time. One of the few positive things that might come from Trump's run.

Torokil said:
Keep in mind this master plan resulted in... JEB!!
Click to expand...
*air horn*
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Section 31 Rottenwatch: Kurtzman makes a worse Star Trek movie than Into Darkness, Nemesis, and Final Frontier combined
2
93
5K
Fluffytheterrible replied
  • Poll
Dark meat is always better than white meat..
Opinion Poll  2
96
4K
8bitpill replied
Snow & White | Review Thread
Community  2
80
5K
GymWolf replied
The Death of Snow White - Exclusive Trailer (2025)
20
382
Major Insano replied
“Single WHITE Female” remake in development
2
69
4K
Hudo replied
Top Bottom