Trump’s Doing Worse Than Romney Did Among White Voters (FiveThirtyEight)

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My pretty racist uncle who spends all of his time talking about how great things used to be still admits that he can't vote for Trump in good conscience. So I guess this makes sense to me.
 
The gap between educated and non-educated whites must be giant for Trump to be surging among the uneducated, of whom there are more, and still be losing ground overall because those with college degrees are turning on him that much harder.
 
GhaleonEB said:
IIRC, he's winning big with white men, and losing white women. I think white men is the only demographic he's winning.

As a white man, it's really embarrassing.



It's a new analysis based on current polling, and particularly relevant given the proximity to election day; it's unlikely to change before then.
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Is that among all age groups or do they not break it down that far?
 
DontBeThatGuy said:
I hope he ends up losing Arizona, so we can see one hell of a spectacular blowout.
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karl.gif

meg1.gif
 
OrangeGrayBlue said:
...1984? 1988? 1964?
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Reagan polled exceptionally well at a time where carrying the white vote mattered way more than it does now. LBJ won because Goldwater was just beginning his paradigm shift of the Republican party.

Trump has no factors that aided either LBJ or Reagan in his favor. The way they lost is also a factor of the times. While it won't be as disparate, it'll be a slaughter that isn't easy to replicate in the modern world.
 
This is similar to the Obama election "silent (racist) majority" that couldn't actually vote for a black man so the polls didn't matter. It seems you just can't count on everyone being as racist as you.
 
HStallion said:
Dead People can't vote.
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That hasn't stopped Republicans from using dead people to vote before and then try to pin it on Democrats.

Lovely Salsa said:
What am I looking at?
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Karl Rove got super pissed when Obama won Ohio and said it didn't play out like it was supposed to. Historically, Ohio has lead Democrat numerous times, suddenly the polling stations would go down, and when they came back up the Republicans would be winning by insanely huge margins. Last time they went down, the Democrats were still in their leading position.

Basically, Karl was pissed that his rigging of the election failed.

And Megyn Kelly told him to stop using "Republican math" to try to make it work for Romney. I don't like her but it was hilarious. As for why that hasn't been investigated disturbs me. Republicans love to try to steal elections be it by voter suppression or outright rigging it.
 
Frozenprince said:
At this rate he might not break 170.

This could be a slaughter the likes of which we've never seen before if these numbers play out.
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He's definitely breaking 200 off of being the GOP nominee alone. In terms of popular vote, he's trailing by nine right now which is horrendous.
 
GhaleonEB said:
IIRC, he's winning big with white men, and losing white women. I think white men is the only demographic he's winning.

As a white man, it's really embarrassing.



It's a new analysis based on current polling, and particularly relevant given the proximity to election day; it's unlikely to change before then.
Click to expand...

He's winning super-big among white men without college degrees.
 
Robdraggoo said:
How though. They have to hate trump more than McCain or Romney. Trump is a legitimate threat to them where the others weren't.
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Notice how among millennial Johnson is doing much better than he should? Well voting isn't about negativity and hate for certain people. They liked Obama but don't like Clinton. Across all ages she really isn't someone who inspires confidence and admiration on a macro level like her husband, Obama or even the the second Bush and ofcourse the Republican Jesus. For most people she at best is seen as someone who keeps the wheels spinning and is fundamentally bland.
 
wildfire said:
Notice how among millennial Johnson is doing much better than he should? Well voting isn't about negativity and hate for certain people. They liked Obama but don't like Clinton. Across all ages she really isn't someone who inspires confidence and admiration on a macro level like her husband, Obama or even the Bushes and ofcourse the Republican Jesus. For most people she at best is seen as someone who keeps the wheels spinning and is fundamentally bland.
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Isn't this evidence that voting is about negativity and hate? People are voting for someone they know nothing about because they aren't Trump or Clinton.

All of my Johnson friends though have switched from "the two main candidates are awful" to "all the candidates are awful" recently though, so maybe they saw all the stories about Johnson doesn't even know the name of the state he served as Governor in.
 
GOP is having a crisis of infinite demographics. They really going to have to think about what they want to be. Because time is not their friend
 
Iksenpets said:
The gap between educated and non-educated whites must be giant for Trump to be surging among the uneducated, of whom there are more, and still be losing ground overall because those with college degrees are turning on him that much harder.
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White men without college degrees are a low turnout demographic and Trump has no infrastructure to register and turn out marginal voters.
 
Ekai said:
That hasn't stopped Republicans from using dead people to vote before and then try to pin it on Democrats.



Karl Rove got super pissed when Obama won Ohio and said it didn't play out like it was supposed to. Historically, Ohio has lead Democrat numerous times, suddenly the polling stations would go down, and when they came back up the Republicans would be winning by insanely huge margins. Last time they went down, the Democrats were still in their leading position.

Basically, Karl was pissed that his rigging of the election failed.

And Megyn Kelly told him to stop using "Republican math" to try to make it work for Romney. I don't like her but it was hilarious. As for why that hasn't been investigated disturbs me. Republicans love to try to steal elections be it by voter suppression or outright rigging it.
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mcfrank said:
rove melt down
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Eidan said:
The immediate fallout at Fox News after Obama won re-election. It's a good watch, you should check it out.
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I just did and it was spectacular
 
Frozenprince said:
At this rate he might not break 170.

This could be a slaughter the likes of which we've never seen before if these numbers play out.
Click to expand...

He's most likely going to break 170 EV's in the end unless hilary somehow manages to win both AZ and GA or one or more random states that no one bothered to poll.

Slayven said:
Romney had 5-6% black vote. Trump has 2%

Early voting already started in a lot of states
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Romney got around 7% of the black vote while McCain got around 4%. He's most likely going to get between 4 and 6 percent of the black vote at this point.

Bronx-Man said:
He's definitely breaking 200 off of being the GOP nominee alone. In terms of popular vote, he's trailing by nine right now which is horrendous.
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He's not going to break 200 EV's. The max I think he will get is around 191 EV's. The minimum is probably around 150 EV's.
 
Ekai said:
That hasn't stopped Republicans from using dead people to vote before and then try to pin it on Democrats.



Karl Rove got super pissed when Obama won Ohio and said it didn't play out like it was supposed to. Historically, Ohio has lead Democrat numerous times, suddenly the polling stations would go down, and when they came back up the Republicans would be winning by insanely huge margins. Last time they went down, the Democrats were still in their leading position.

Basically, Karl was pissed that his rigging of the election failed.

And Megyn Kelly told him to stop using "Republican math" to try to make it work for Romney. I don't like her but it was hilarious. As for why that hasn't been investigated disturbs me. Republicans love to try to steal elections be it by voter suppression or outright rigging it.
Click to expand...

Has it happened over multiple elections or did it happen multiple times during the previous election. Gee, you'd think someone would keep an eye out for that.
 
So, basically the only reason this isn't a total blowout is because Hillary's actually getting a lot of votes siphoned off by the third party candidates?
 
*daily peek at fivethirtyeight.com*

Oh good, a big spike since last time. I know these numbers keep going up and down and that can't be good for my health but I still feel some relief whenever they are high.

This election cannot be over too fucking soon, man.
 
Quixzlizx said:
He's winning super-big among white men without college degrees.
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I'm seeing these comments as though people without college degrees are complete dumb asses. Choosing to not vote for Trump is common sense. It does not require a degree. What about all these white girls in college doing black face as of late? A piece of paper isn't going to stop racism.
 
Imperfected said:
So, basically the only reason this isn't a total blowout is because Hillary's actually getting a lot of votes siphoned off by the third party candidates?
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More or less, yes. Trump is doing worse than previous GOP nominees at this point in the election, across the board.

TatorTots said:
I'm seeing these comments as though people without college degrees are complete dumb asses. Choosing to not vote for Trump is common sense. It does not require a degree.
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It's more that that is his only major demographic.

Some people may insinuate that means that those without college degrees are stupid, but of course that's a blanket statement.
 
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