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Trump will win says prof. who's been mostly correct on presidential races since 1984

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TheLaughingStock

TheLaughingStock

Member
RoyaleDuke said:
I want it clear, I would vote if it actually mattered and made a difference, if I could have ten thousand versions of myself to vote and sway things, and right the wrongs of society.
Click to expand...

Don't worry their chance of impacting this race in a meaningful way is probably 1 in a billion something too depending on where they live.
 
G

Gotdatmoney

Member
RoyaleDuke said:
Yes, but many of those people probably don't think like I do or have other reasons for not voting.

If I could bandy people together under a platform of equality I would, but in this world it wouldn't get enough support. People don't care, the politicians don't care.

People like to vocalize their outrage, but will they ever act on it? Will they actually do what is necessary?

No. More often times they will not.

I alone cannot change this nation, I cannot band people together when at the very core this nation is divided.

No one can agree on anything, and many are fine to let things be the way they are while complaining about it, and standing by a broken system.



Overwrought litany of arguments?

What? Am I supposed to just echo chamber your opinions and arguments?

I am simply making a case, a statement for why I believe the way I do, why I think the way I do. Why I say the things that I do, nearly every single one of the people responding to me have chosen to ignore my arguments for the sake of "LOL BRO GO VOTE LMAO MANIFESTO CHILD ROFL WHAT AN IDIOT" as a basis in response.

I mean what am I supposed to give you to make you see things the way I do? I mean really, people just keep ignoring what I have to say and singling out the fact that I don't vote instead of the complex reasons why. I find that telling, very telling, because people don't like the truth.

I can't convince everyone to vote for the right candidate or the right reasons. I know because I've tried in the past, and it goes about as well as it is going in this thread.

Some people are entrenched, they cannot be changed or they do not want to face change or the truth.

I want it clear, I would vote if it actually mattered and made a difference, if I could have ten thousand versions of myself to vote and sway things, and right the wrongs of society.

I dream of a future where things are fairer, where we are united against those that seek to divide us and keep us on the bottom.

Ahh, dreams are nice aren't they?
Click to expand...

So what is your idea to effect change in a country? Like you clearly have thought about npt voting so while I don't agree at least you put a lot of thought into it. But what is your actual idea to present change if not voting?
 
entremet

entremet

Member
I think Trump will win as well.

Seems like momentum is shifting. Don't forget that many undecideds choose on Election Day.

On top of that, The October Surprise still hasn't come obviously.

I think Trump is terrible for the record. But my gut tells me he will eek one out.
 
D

Deleted member 80556

Unconfirmed Member
I really wonder how the "my vote doesn't matter!" rhetoric works if it takes in account that millions of people say that as well.
 
R

RoyaleDuke

Banned
Gotdatmoney said:
So what is your idea to effect change in a country? Like you clearly have thought about npt voting so while I don't agree at least you put a lot of thought into it. But what is your actual idea to present change if not voting?
Click to expand...

I've sort of outlined it, basically we need to put aside a lot of issues.

Race, Religion, etc. Bury it.

Ideally, I or someone like me would band everyone together, and we march on the capitol. We make public displays that we are unhappy with the direction this country has taken, we are not happy with the status quo.

That would be the first step, getting everyone together and on the same page, make public displays of our discontent.

We reach everywhere, and everyone that we can through every means necessary.

We unite under one platform, a platform to change the future for the better.

However, if things cannot be done peacefully, than a civil war will be necessary.

Basically:

  • Massive redistribution of wealth, including a rework of how taxes work, including heavy taxation of the rich and large corporate entities.
  • A dismantling of the entire government, and founding it on the basics of socialism as well as some tenants of communism. Largely, a free democratic socialist state is something I envision, but it is more complex than that.
  • Rework immigration laws, immigration is a complex and touchy issue. As of yet I haven't really come up with a great idea yet, but it isn't like I haven't thought about it. I suppose an incentive program would be good, give people more incentive to become legal citizens and stop treating them like refuse.
  • Reworking of Corporate policies, so that corporations have less power
  • A complete reworking of our current banking system
  • Legalization of certain drugs, elimination/Reduction of the DEA
  • Spend less on the military, and more and more on infrastructure, cities, organizations that help people
  • Work on being less world Police and a more internal focused state with borderline isolationist policies
  • As someone who is deeply mentally ill, I would vow to get completely rework support and health systems, especially for the disabled, the mentally ill, and veterans of our country that have fought on foreign and domestic soil
  • A base income that will allow you to live comfortably
  • Revitalization of poor neighborhoods, outreach, education, and support systems for minorities and impoverished people
  • Restructuring, Reformation, and demilitarizing of the Police in this country, stricter standards and training for Police Officers. Accountability is key.
  • New restrictions on firearms and better enforcement of those policies, or outright removing firearms from the hands of everyone that isn't in the military or police.

There is a lot more, but those are some of the basic ideas.
 
H

Heckler456

Banned
RoyaleDuke said:
I've sort of outlined it, basically we need to put aside a lot of issues.

Race, Religion, etc. Bury it.

Ideally, I or someone like me would band everyone together, and we march on the capitol. We make public displays that we are unhappy with the direction this country has taken, we are not happy with the status quo.

That would be the first step, getting everyone together and on the same page, make public displays of our discontent.

We reach everywhere, and everyone that we can through every means necessary.

We unite under one platform, a platform to change the future for the better.

However, if things cannot be done peacefully, than a civil war will be necessary.

Basically:

  • Massive redistribution of wealth, including a rework of how taxes work, including heavy taxation of the rich and large corporate entities.
  • A dismantling of the entire government, and founding it on the basics of socialism as well as some tenants of communism. Largely, a free democratic socialist state is something I envision, but it is more complex than that.
  • Rework immigration laws, immigration is a complex and touchy issue. As of yet I haven't really come up with a great idea yet, but it isn't like I haven't thought about it. I suppose an incentive program would be good, give people more incentive to become legal citizens and stop treating them like refuse.
  • Reworking of Corporate policies, so that corporations have less power
  • A complete reworking of our current banking system
  • Legalization of certain drugs, elimination/Reduction of the DEA
  • Spend less on the military, and more and more on infrastructure, cities, organizations that help people
  • Work on being less world Police and a more internal focused state with borderline isolationist policies
  • As someone who is deeply mentally ill, I would vow to get completely rework support and health systems, especially for the disabled, the mentally ill, and veterans of our country that have fought on foreign and domestic soil
  • A base income that will allow you to live comfortably
  • Revitalization of poor neighborhoods, outreach, education, and support systems for minorities and impoverished people
  • Restructuring, Reformation, and demilitarizing of the Police in this country, stricter standards and training for Police Officers. Accountability is key.
  • New restrictions on firearms and better enforcement of those policies, or outright removing firearms from the hands of everyone that isn't in the military or police.

There is a lot more, but those are some of the basic ideas.
Click to expand...

What if I told you you can have some of these things by voting for a representative based on their policy?
 
R

RoyaleDuke

Banned
Heckler456 said:
What if I told you you can have some of these things by voting for a representative based on their policy?
Click to expand...

What if I told you that most of those things will never come to pass, in any real form that would have any meaningful change or effect on the direction and status quo of this country?

You probably wouldn't listen to me, just like even though I am listening to you, you seem to ignore the fact that this broken system won't make any of those things concrete.

Unless we all stop fighting each other, and unite under one platform of ideas, nothing is going to change.
 
G

Gotdatmoney

Member
RoyaleDuke said:
I've sort of outlined it, basically we need to put aside a lot of issues.

Race, Religion, etc. Bury it.
Click to expand...

Well that's not gonna happen
Ideally, I or someone like me would band everyone together, and we march on the capitol. We make public displays that we are unhappy with the direction this country has taken, we are not happy with the status quo.
Click to expand...

So mass protest. I'm fine with that though I dunno how you would expect to get the numbers you need. The thousands you say you would need to make voitng worth while. You would have to multiply that 10 fold to have even sorta a voice.

That would be the first step, getting everyone together and on the same page, make public displays of our discontent.

We reach everywhere, and everyone that we can through every means necessary.

We unite under one platform, a platform to change the future for the better.
Click to expand...

You know this will regress to a system similar to what many countries have now right? You wont ever be able to unite all people under a single banner since as I mentioned people arent ditching race and religion given those are the like 2 major social structure humanity has used to divide itself besides money.

The list of stuff you wanted is nice though, some good ideas (though the world is a global economy, the odds you can go pure isolation is basically none existant). But a lot of what you are suggesting ignores there are other places corporations and countries can go if you massively tax them and strip their power. You'd need some more international standards to handle that.
 
R

RoyaleDuke

Banned
Gotdatmoney said:
Well that's not gonna happen


So mass protest. I'm fine with that though I dunno how you would expect to get the numbers you need. The thousands you say you would need to make voitng worth while. You would have to multiply that 10 fold to have even sorta a voice.



You know this will regress to a system similar to what many countries have now right? You wont ever be able to unite all people under a single banner since as I mentioned people arent ditching race and religion given those are the like 2 major social structure humanity has used to divide itself besides money.
Click to expand...

It is the onus of the people to prevent it from regressing.

But you've already pointed out why none of what I said will happen, something I know all too well.

Which leads us full circle back to why voting is pointless.


So mass protest. I'm fine with that though I dunno how you would expect to get the numbers you need. The thousands you say you would need to make voitng worth while. You would have to multiply that 10 fold to have even sorta a voice.
Click to expand...

The bolded is especially why the whole situation is pointless, fruitless. We won't stop fighting each other, and the rich and powerful won't stop taking advantage of that.

Unless we can all come together, nothing will change and even if we do all come together it could take a war to make it all happen.

Then comes the fallout from having a civil war, repairing the country's infrastructure, healing the people...

They know us too well.

They know, we won't ever try to truly change the status quo.

Because too many people play by their rules, when they already have tools and power that we can't even dream of having.

There is no hope, get used to people like Trump and the Alt right because it will only get worse from here on out.

besada said:
Let's move past our RoyaleDuke derail, shall we? You aren't going to convince him, so just move on.
Click to expand...

Yeah... sorry man. I didn't mean to derail a whole thread.
 
D

Deleted member 80556

Unconfirmed Member
Going on some tangent on the topic, since the first debate is one huge event expected by both sides, I think that the New York Times did a good article on what should Hillary not do.

They compared the Gore/Bush debate, and how the former came off as a jerk, which hurt Gore's chances at the presidency. I'm actually worried that Hillary will look Trump with so much contempt that people will take this same narrative, hurting her. I really hope she comes as patient, compared to Trump's childishness.
 
H

Heckler456

Banned
RoyaleDuke said:
What if I told you that most of those things will never come to pass, in any real form that would have any meaningful change or effect on the direction and status quo of this country?

You probably wouldn't listen to me, just like even though I am listening to you, you seem to ignore the fact that this broken system won't make any of those things concrete.

Unless we all stop fighting each other, and unite under one platform of ideas, nothing is going to change.
Click to expand...

Most of those things won't come to pass, true. At least not soon, anyway. But given your throwing-the-baby-out-with-the-bathwater attitude thus far, I hope it isn't a waste of my time to point out that even accomplishing a single thing on that list is worthwhile. Especially given that your, if I can speak frankly, borderline fever dream of a plan is completely incongruous with reality, and how that situation would in actual fact work out.

Plus, I don't think that it's out of line for me to say that you're overestimating your or anyone's capability if you think that you (and, I mean, any of us, or even any number of us combined) can improve something that has been honed over the last 1000+ years. And on top of that, your plan reads like one of my "this is what I'd do if I won the lottery!" daydreams I have when I use the restroom and have nothing to do. Yeah, every single one of those things would be absolutely amazing. But every single one of those things are also things that haven't even been figured out on their own, let alone how they'd work in the type of society you're proposing.

So, at the end of the day, the main issue I have isn't that you're here discussing this stuff. That's great. But it's that you're seemingly saying that you and me should stop partaking in society we currently have, and the governance thereof, and just wait until everything magically sorts itself out in such a way that everything would be literally perfect. It's completely illogical.

For any one person, their best chance of enacting positive change is to engage themselves in their local community or government. But that doesn't mean that those people shouldn't vote. You can do both, and a feeling of being morally against voting because things could be better doesn't really have a place in this equation.
 
W

wumster3000

Member
TheSeks said:
I mean after Brexit, can you you really say that with 100% certainty? Never underestimate peoples fears of joblessness and otherness.
Click to expand...
This right here. I can't state this enough. The protester and riots are pushing Trump to a victory. People are genuinely afraid of protesters now. Some of the events in Charlotte didn't help either. Trying to throw people in fires, attacking reporters, attacking white people and managed to kill one of their own. That shit scares the hell out of them. Now think about people on the fence. They will vote for the person who feels like them. The person that identifies with them.
 
M

mrpoopy

Member
Mystical Chinese monkey predicts Donald Trump will be the next US president

J10zEd6.jpg
 
30yearsofhurt

30yearsofhurt

Member
Well maybe if you guys get out in 2018 you can limit the damage.
Who am I kidding, you guys will sit on your butts and not care about your reps and state legislatures.
 
E

Enco

Member
What a fucking thing to wake up to.

It truly was just like Brexit. Too many fucking idiots out there.
 
N

nynt9

Member
Shoutouts to Sam Wang's 99% chance of Hillary winning.

For all his hot air about Nate Silver, Nate's results were a lot closer to the outcome.
 
W

wildfire

Banned
This fucking guy served me crow. I felt he was off in using Obama as a data point to believe Trump will win because his approval rating is so high but today I saw a stat that showed this approval is shared by like 90%+ democrats and barely 10% Republicans. So the miscalculation was on my part.


Congrats for creating a system worth considering for future elections.
 
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