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[Stereogatari]

Last time no parties managed to form a coalition. So we're at it again!

Current projections:

AKP 41.7% ( Nationalist-Religious ). They want more ties with Middle East. Big businesses love these guys. The GOP/Republicans of Turkey. Pro-meddling in Syria. Extrapolated to whole Turkish population would mean 31.25 million Turks are pro-AKP.

CHP 27.6% ( Nationalist-Secular ). They want more ties with Europe. Ataturk's party. The parts of Turkey where their vote share is high are the absolute best. Anti-meddling in Syria. Extrapolated to whole Turkish population would mean 20.68 million are pro-CHP.

MHP 15.0% ( Nationalist-Racist ). They want more ties with Central Asia. During Cold War they fought street battles with left wing Turks which led to Army Coup. Anti-meddling in Syria. Extrapolated to whole Turkish population would mean 11.24 million Turks are pro-MHP.

HDP 12.7% ( Kurdish Nationalists ). They want more ties with Kurds. Also left wing Turks love these guys. Anti-meddling in Syria. Extrapolated to whole Turkish population would mean 9.52 million Turks are pro-HDP.

If we take my extrapolated population figures and generalise, that means 41.44 million Turks don't define their politics by religion versus 31.25 million who do.

Worth noting that there are many pro-AKP women who don't wear headscarf, that have boyfriends before marriage etc. It's not full of only 100% super conservative religious people. Like this crazy girl who cried after AKP lost share in the previous election haha let's hope she'll cry again:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEBSaEVPOgI

I know my analysis of each party's position is simple-minded, but in all honesty it's accurate.

When looking at the following map, keep in mind that the Western parts of Turkey where there is a lot of red, comprise of about half of the total population of the country. It can be misleading to just look at it and think "OMG YELLOW EVERYWHERE, TURKEY IS DOOMED!".

Turkey uses a Proportional Representation system, not the First Past The Post of USA and UK. Thank goodness, otherwise AKP would be running away with it.

Last time: (AKP yellow, CHP red, MHP brown, HDP purple).

For those interested, I support CHP.

Oh also pretty important, here were the June Overseas Result:

"Unlike the French system, for example, Turkish expatriates do not elect MPs to represent them in the Ankara parliament.

Instead, their votes are proportionally shared out among the 85 domestic electoral districts. These overseas votes are used to “top up” the votes each party receives within each district. If the result is running particularly close in a district, this can affect the overall result." Source: http://www.jamesinturkey.com/the-expatriate-factor/

 

[Walpurgis]

Why is every party nationalist? There's no normal parties?

 

[allftw]

Why is every party nationalist? There's no normal parties?

Nationalism is huge in Turkey. But it is a very simplified way of defining these parties and their ideologies as mentioned in the OP. HDP is more or less socialist while CHP has been moving away from their nationalist side for the last few years. And AKP only recently started to play the nationalism card in order to get more votes.

As for the elections it looks like the results will be similar to the last elections. That means there will either be a coalition or we will see a third election if AKP decides to keep the country hostage like they've been doing for the last few months.

 

[hooijdonk17]

Why is every party nationalist? There's no normal parties?

The whole labeling thing in the OP is misleading, it would be like calling both Liberals and Republicans nationalists.

AKP are conservative liberalists with authoritarian and corruption tendencies. (Right)
CHP are secular democrats with libertarian and dogmatic tendencies. (Left)
MHP are conservative nationalists with authoritarian and racist tendencies. (Right)
HDP are Kurdish democrats with ties to and roots within terrorist organizations (Left)

 

[Walpurgis]

The whole labeling thing in the OP is misleading, it would be like calling both Liberals and Republicans nationalists.

AKP are conservative liberalists with authoritarian and corruption tendencies. (Right)
CHP are secular democrats with libertarian and dogmatic tendencies. (Left)
MHP are conservative nationalists with authoritarian and racist tendencies. (Right)
HDP are Kurdish democrats with ties to and roots within terrorist organizations (Left)

Thanks. Sounds like CHP is the only choice. Too bad about the HDP terrorist connections. How bad is it? Do they just get funding from Kurdish rebels or is it worse?

 

[hohoXD123]

Thanks. Sounds like CHP is the only choice. Too bad about the HDP terrorist connections. How bad is it? Do they just get funding from Kurdish rebels or is it worse?

The "Relations with PKK" section gives a decent summary
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peoples%27_Democratic_Party_(Turkey)#Relations_with_the_PKK_and_KCK

Not sure how true many of these allegations are, though there are clearly some links between the two. The Guardian also recently did an article on the HDP leader which is an interesting read.

 

[Enduin]

This seems like it will be a fun election...

So the left is screwed since even if the HDP and CHP are willing to work together, no idea if they are, they don't have the numbers to form a coalition government in the first place. And since no parties formed a coalition last time it sounds like the MHP and AKP aren't very friendly either. What does the constitution call for if they end up with no majority for a second time? Just have another election in 3 months until they do?

 

[Stereogatari]

The whole labeling thing in the OP is misleading, it would be like calling both Liberals and Republicans nationalists.

AKP are conservative liberalists with authoritarian and corruption tendencies. (Right)
CHP are secular democrats with libertarian and dogmatic tendencies. (Left)
MHP are conservative nationalists with authoritarian and racist tendencies. (Right)
HDP are Kurdish democrats with ties to and roots within terrorist organizations (Left)

CHP supporters are nationalists by Western standards though. I thought I'd emphasise that. Many Westerners think it's all AKP that are anti-PKK etc., but CHP liberal Turks give no quarter to PKK either.

 

[Stereogatari]

Welp from what I hear our country is going to shit. Fuck religious manipulation.

 

[kittoo]

So it seems Erdogan again for Turkey. I wish it wasnt but nonetheless, all the best Turkey. I wish and hope you remain secular.

 

[corduroygt]

So it seems Erdogan again for Turkey. I wish it wasnt but nonetheless, all the best Turkey. I wish and hope you remain secular.

LOL. No muslim majority country can ever be secular or remain secular for a long time.

 

[DevelopmentArrested]

Fucking corrupt/fradulent bullshit
Religious psychopaths in charge again

 

[Konka]

LOL. No muslim majority country can ever be secular or remain secular for a long time.

Wat.

 

[Stereogatari]

LOL. No muslim majority country can ever be secular or remain secular for a long time.

You are right. Because there is no such thing as a Christian majority country anymore.

 

[Konka]

Yet another example how Islam corrupts anything it touches.

You are right. Because there is no such thing as a Christian majority country anymore.

From the Syria thread. Dude is a troll or crazy islamophobic.

 

[Canis lupus]

Best possible outcome. AKP having majority will end this uncertainty and bring stability. Between AKP majority and not having a clear cut winner, this is the lesser evil.

The Turkish electorate punished MHP and HDP, who is barely surviving the 10% threshold. Guess not distancing yourselves from terrorists was a bad strategy.

 

[nynt9]

Of course there are reports of vote manipulation, outages, lost ballots from CHP-heavy regions as usual.

 

[corduroygt]

You are right. Because there is no such thing as a Christian majority country anymore.

Aren't the US, UK and many European countries still Christian majority? They're pretty secular last time I checked. Now give me one Muslim majority country. The closest example I can think of is Turkey and we all see what's happening.

 

[Konka]

Aren't the US, UK and many European countries still Christian majority? They're pretty secular last time I checked. Now give me one Muslim majority country. The closest example I can think of is Turkey and we all see what's happening.

Pure secular?

Egypt, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, etc...

 

[Canis lupus]

Aren't the US, UK and many European countries still Christian majority? They're pretty secular last time I checked. Now give me one Muslim majority country. The closest example I can think of is Turkey and we all see what's happening.

What are you talking about? Turkey still remains secular, even after 13 years of AKP.

 

[Stereogatari]

Aren't the US, UK and many European countries still Christian majority? They're pretty secular last time I checked. Now give me one Muslim majority country. The closest example I can think of is Turkey and we all see what's happening.

You don't get what I meant. English people and Americans are "Christian". But most Muslims in Muslim countries are MUSLIM. It all goes back to the Renaissance and what not.

What are you talking about? Turkey still remains secular, even after 13 years of AKP.

It does and it will for sure. Our problem with AKP is more about their corruption and fucked up foreign policy.

 

[nynt9]

What are you talking about? Turkey still remains secular, even after 13 years of AKP.

Not really. The country might not be full on sharia, but there is legislation that benefits religious institutions disproportionately, and the leading party's entire platform is religion and it's the main reason people vote for them.

 

[Canis lupus]

Not really. The country might not be full on sharia, but there is legislation that benefits religious institutions disproportionately, and the leading party's entire platform is religion and it's the main reason people vote for them.

So it's still secular, constitutionally nothing has changed. What religious institutions?

 

[Stereogatari]

So it's still secular, constitutionally nothing has changed. What religious institutions?

Imam Hatip and higher funding for Diyanet.

 

[Kabouter]

An absolute majority for that jackass, good god. Truly unfortunate

 

[Frustrated_me]

AKP policies are outdated, stale and simply not working.

I'm not even going to talk about their foreign policy, Jesus it's a cluster fuck. When you support and harbour terrorists in your own country it will fire back. See; Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Libya, etc.

What these elections tell me is that the other 3 parties couldn't capitalize on AKPs mismanagements. AKP just handed the other parties a politics 101 course.

 

[Ty4on]

So it's still secular, constitutionally nothing has changed. What religious institutions?

lol

Erdogan was even arrested in 1999 for running a religious party which is strictly against the Turkish constitution.
The elected prime minister tweeted after it became clear he had won "Elhamdülillah..." which CNN Türk translated to "Praise be to God".

The Turkish constitution is very strict in separating state and religion, but Erdogan has been bending the rules.

 

[corduroygt]

Pure secular?

Egypt, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, etc...

Egypt is secular? It's governed by sharia!!

 

[Patrick Bateman]

It blows my mind that people still vote for this guy..

 

[Canis lupus]

Major losses for HDP in Kurdish areas. Blaming everything on the govt and being vague and not condemning the terrorists ravaging the south east cost them dearly.

lol

Erdogan was even arrested in 1999 for running a religious party which is strictly against the Turkish constitution.
The elected prime minister tweeted after it became clear he had won "Elhamdülillah..." which CNN Türk translated to "Praise be to God".

The Turkish constitution is very strict in separating state and religion, but Erdogan has been bending the rules.

Thanking God is in violation of Turkish constitution? Did Turkey lose it's secularity because a PM thanked God?

 

[Kabouter]

AKP policies are outdated, stale and simply not working.

I'm not even going to talk about their foreign policy, Jesus it's a cluster fuck. When you support and harbour terrorists in your own country it will fire back. See; Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Libya, etc.

What these elections tell me is that the other 3 parties couldn't capitalize on AKPs mismanagements. AKP just handed the other parties a politics 101 course.

It's pretty impressive that after the shit Erdogan does and says, and even going so far as building one of the biggest palaces in the world, he can still get an absolute majority. The man oozes banana republic in a country that is anything but, I don't know how he does it.

 

[TheRealTalker]

I am guessing it is all due to the unrest with Kurds and also those attacks

Kurds likely lost faith in the other party and Turks want safety or something

usually this happens for most countries when distress occurs

 

[Konka]

Egypt is secular? It's governed by sharia!!

Strictly speaking the Egyptian constitution is secular. You asked for one and I gave you a bunch and thats your only response?

 

[GSG Flash]

Worst possible outcome

 

[corduroygt]

Strictly speaking the Egyptian constitution is secular. You asked for one and I gave you a bunch and thats your only response?

I don't know the constitutions of the other countries or how much Muslim majority they are. But how is Egypt constitution secular when it says the law of the land is based on Sharia law? That is literally the opposite of secular.

 

[Rektash]

I guess this is what the turkish voters want. Too bad for them.

 

[Stereogatari]

It's pretty impressive that after the shit Erdogan does and says, and even going so far as building one of the biggest palaces in the world, he can still get an absolute majority. The man oozes banana republic in a country that is anything but, I don't know how he does it.

You know how fangirls support boybands? That's how AKP supporters support Erdoğan. Headscarf wearing girls even kiss his posters.

I don't know the constitutions of the other countries or how much Muslim majority they are. But how is Egypt constitution secular when it says the law of the land is based on Sharia law? That is literally the opposite of secular.

We're getting into semantics. It's not strictly Secular but you can live a Secular lifestyle in Egypt without it being illegal. IIRC Sharia in Egypt is limited to familial disputes, divorce etc. But not alcohol and how females dress etc.

 

[Canis lupus]

I am guessing it is all due to the unrest with Kurds and also those attacks

Kurds likely lost faith in the other party and Turks want safety or something

usually this happens for most countries when distress occurs

Indeed. The Turks and Kurds want stability back. It was clear no other party can become majority with losers like Kilicdaroglu and Bahceli, they really need to go. HDP can never be Turkey's party as long as they don't distance themselves from the PKK terrorists.

So between AKP majority or continued uncertainty with the middle east unrest in the background getting closer, the choice seems obvious.

AKP's electorate is the conservative and middle class, Anatolia had a tremendous economic growth in the last decade.

 

[Stereogatari]

Indeed. The Turks and Kurds want stability back. It was clear no other party can become majority with losers like Kilicdaroglu and Bahceli, they really need to go. HDP can never be Turkey's party as long as they don't distance themselves from the PKK terrorists.

So between AKP majority or continued uncertainty with the middle east unrest in the background getting closer, the choice seems obvious.

AKP's electorate is the conservative and middle class, Anatolia had a tremendous economic growth in the last decade.

That's a good point. It's not just poor "idiot" people voting for AKP. That myth needs to die.

 

[corduroygt]

You know how fangirls support boybands? That's how AKP supporters support Erdoğan. Headscarf wearing girls even kiss his posters.

We're getting into semantics. It's not strictly Secular but you can live a Secular lifestyle in Egypt without it being illegal. IIRC Sharia in Egypt is limited to familial disputes, divorce etc. But not alcohol and how females dress etc.

You can live a secular lifestyle in Dubai by that definition. Full secularism like the US, Europe or bust.

 

[Canis lupus]

That's a good point. It's not just poor "idiot" people voting for AKP. That myth needs to die.

The tourists visiting the country always tell me how modern the country is becoming, even central Anatolia. I was in a bus full of Europeans last year going to the city of Konya to visit Mevlana museum, they remarked how the city even had bike lanes like in Europe.

Really their view about Turkey and muslims change drastically once they visit the country.

 

[DXB-KNIGHT]

Egypt is secular? It's governed by sharia!!

They kicked the MB and trying to ban any religious based party.

 

[RamzaIsCool]

It's pretty impressive that after the shit Erdogan does and says, and even going so far as building one of the biggest palaces in the world, he can still get an absolute majority. The man oozes banana republic in a country that is anything but, I don't know how he does it.

Actually it's pretty simple, as long as there isn't a viable central-right alternative the result will always be 40-50% AKP. The CHP (seculars) has a base of 25%, but outside that they will have a hard time getting the votes from Nationalists, Kurds and conservatives. It has to much history and is therefor mistrusted by those groups. MHP (nationalists) should have benefitted from the renewed terrorist activity, but they are complete idiots. I mean every country has it fairshare of wacky nationalists, but I doubt they reach the level of utter stupity of our nationalists, I guess a huge part bolted to the AKP because of this. The HDP (kurds) lost because they were a bit vague on the PKK issue. Which meant they lost the leftist Turkish support (like me!) who supported them last elections. Also 80% of the Kurds are conservative Muslims who are ideologically really close to the AKP. The HDP is a socialist leftist party, these Kurds vote for them because they don't have an alternative. But that doesn't mean these Kurds all of a sudden turn into socialists, this means they want to see the result of their votes (meaning peace). If not they will leave!

 

[Condom]

Indeed. The Turks and Kurds want stability back. It was clear no other party can become majority with losers like Kilicdaroglu and Bahceli, they really need to go. HDP can never be Turkey's party as long as they don't distance themselves from the PKK terrorists.

So between AKP majority or continued uncertainty with the middle east unrest in the background getting closer, the choice seems obvious.

AKP's electorate is the conservative and middle class, Anatolia had a tremendous economic growth in the last decade.

Linking HDP with PKK... You guys will never accept the HDP because in your eyes they will always be secret terrorists. HDP is the most progressive party from those in Parliament.

If the people want Turkey to become Russia 2.0 then by all means.

 

[corduroygt]

If the people want Turkey to become Russia 2.0 then by all means.

That would be an improvement for Turkey actually.

 

[Canis lupus]

Actually it's pretty simple, as long as there isn't a viable central-right alternative the result will always be 40-50% AKP. The CHP (seculars) has a base of 25%, but outside that they will have a hard time getting the votes from Nationalists, Kurds and conservatives. It has to much history and is therefor mistrusted by those groups. MHP (nationalists) should have benefitted from the renewed terrorist activity, but they are complete idiots. I mean every country has it fairshare of wacky nationalists, but I doubt they reach the level of utter stupity of our nationalists, I guess a huge part bolted to the AKP because of this. The HDP (kurds) lost because they were a bit vague on the PKK issue. Which meant they lost the leftist Turkish support (like me!) who supported them last elections. Also 80% of the Kurds are conservative Muslims who are ideologically really close to the AKP. The HDP is a socialist leftist party, these Kurds vote for them because they don't have an alternative. But that doesn't mean these Kurds all of a sudden turn into socialists, this means they want to see the result of their votes (meaning peace). If not they will leave!

You voted HDP last time? Aww heelll no, düştün gözümden...

;P

Linking HDP with PKK... You guys will never accept the HDP because in your eyes they will always be secret terrorists. HDP is the most progressive party from those in Parliament.

If the people want Turkey to become Russia 2.0 then by all means.

HDP needed to be stern and condemn PKK attacks, sadly they never did and always were vague about the terrorist issue. Being the "kurdish" party, it was their responsibility to help bring a solution and stop youth from getting brainwashed by PKK propaganda. Instead they built a strategy on whining and blaming every little thing on the govt, making the Kurds scared for a possible civil war. That's why they lost.

 

[RamzaIsCool]

You voted HDP last time? Aww heelll no, düştün gözümden...

;P

.

haha yup and I don't regret it! 10% threshold and my undying hate for AKP/ Erdogan made it an easy choice. No way the AKP should get a supermajority and change the constitution to make Erdogan a "ruling" president. Besides HDP is pretty close to my own political preferences.

This time I voted CHP. Kilicdaroglu was pretty strong the last few months and probably the only politician who tried to get everybody together. The rest was busy polarizing everybody.

Oh well AKP got the majority, good luck to them the next 4 years. The economy is going down to the shitters, the middle east is a powderkrg that is about to explode any minute now. Syrian refugees and whatnot. Lets see if they can fuck it up even more. On a postive note Erdo still can't change the constitution, so no dictator powers for him!

 

[Stereogatari]

Comedy comment from Reddit:

"Anyone not following Wahabi Islam should leave Turkey. Erdogan will now turn it into his own Islamic Caliphate and turn back all the progress Mustafa Kemal Atatürk brought to Turkey. Secularism will be dead. Women will be second class citizens again. As for the Kurds that are followers of Islam that live in Turkey - run, run as far away from that place as possible. Your days are numbered. The Armenian Genocide is nothing compared to what is coming."

That would be an improvement for Turkey actually.

Turkey is a far, far better country than Russia.

 

[Arksy]

Did Erdogan get the numbers necessary to unilaterally change the constitution to install himself as President Eternal?

 

[Stereogatari]

Did Erdogan get the numbers necessary to unilaterally change the constitution to install himself as President Eternal?

Nope.