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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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H

Huw_Dawson

Member
Jackpot said:
I expect Lib Dems to end up with the same number of seats +/-2 in the GE. Any perceived upswing in support has never translated into votes.
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This is why the targeting is so important! If we know we can win a small set of seats with work, or come second in loads of seats with the same amount of work, we need to win the small set of seats.

I'm thinking about 20 in the end, if there's no major surge - and there could well be, as the public is still not hugely well informed. If there was a surge then I'd still be expecting 20-25, because we only can win seats we are targeting. Is that fair? No. That's why the Tories love FPTP. :)
 
P

Pyroclastic

Banned
Jackpot said:
I expect Lib Dems to end up with the same number of seats +/-2 in the GE. Any perceived upswing in support has never translated into votes.
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I'm optimistic for more of course, but under 10 seats is great value at the minute if you can find it on the betting sites. under 20 was, but probably won't be anymore unless you put crazy amounts on it.

these past couple of years have been ok for my bank balance around election times but not very good for the soul :(

edit: didn't even notice your username, heh
 
W

Walshicus

Member
I just wish there was even the hint of a positive political future for England. It's exhausting seeing the bad guys win so much.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
I...

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/labour-local-elections-jeremy-corbyn-momentum-a7719456.html

The local election results are coming in, and the pundits are predicting doom for Labour in next month’s general election. I could have written that line before we even knew the results – in fact I did – because it relies on two hard facts that were never going to change. Firstly, that these local elections are not nationwide and exclude pretty much everywhere that Labour’s vote share has been improving (for instance, there were no elections in London). Secondly, that large sections of the media are committed to building a narrative against Jeremy Corbyn.

But the pundits should be careful because the ground is shifting from under that narrative. Labour, which under Corbyn’s leadership has grown to be the biggest left of centre party in Europe, has woken up. Unprecedented numbers are heading to the doorstep all over the country. Most of the recent polls have the Tories’ lead cut in half from where it was a few weeks ago.

Labour’s army of campaigners were never drawn to the idea of giving up their evenings and weekends by good polling numbers, and they won’t be put off by the odd setback in county council elections. They have been inspired by a vision for a radically different kind of society – an alternative to the rigged political and economic system in which nurses are using foodbanks and four million children are living in poverty.

It’s the people versus the establishment, and for the first time in my lifetime we have, in Jeremy Corbyn, a potential prime minister who is really on our side.

The general election campaign has forced two sharply contrasting visions for Britain’s future into the open. The Tories are focusing on a narrow and bizarrely aggressive agenda which offers little to inspire – whether it’s their 20-year-old self-plagiarised soundbites (and posters) about Labour’s tax bombshell, or Theresa May’s ludicrous assertion that Jean Claude Junker really wants a Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour government and is “interfering” in the election to get one, almost every move they make is mired in negativity.

Meanwhile, Labour is talking about people’s lives and proposing real solutions to the problems in our society, such as introducing £10 an hour minimum wage and banning zero hour contracts, reversing the Tories’ £70bn tax cuts for corporations and the rich, and using this to fund the reversal of cuts to the police, the armed forces and the NHS. These are the so-called “radical”, “damaging” policies that a Labour government would stand for.

For commentators and machine politicians who thrive on the tittle tattle of the Westminster bubble, election campaigns are tiring and disorientating. If, like Jeremy Corbyn and the fresh army of Labour activists, you hate establishment politics and want to kick the doors down from the outside, it comes as second nature.

Maybe that’s why Theresa May is hiding. Not only is she running scared from TV debates with Jeremy Corbyn, but her road shows are shrouded in secrecy. Reportedly village halls have been booked for children’s parties then, knock me down with a soundbite, Theresa May turns up with her handpicked entourage. Local journalists in Cornwall are locked out while she visits a factory, lest they ask any challenging questions. After a while one place seems much like another, which would explain how May forgot which town she was in last week.

We know what the headlines look like today. But make no mistake – this election is narrowing, and its outcome is in the balance. If you’ve had enough of the Tories rigging the system in favour of the elite few at the expense of the many, vote Labour on 8 June.
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I just... I don't know...
 
PJV3

PJV3

Member
The large membership stuff annoys me, we could have millions of members and still lose, it's nice but it doesn't mean much if you lose.
 
B

Billy_Pilgrim

Member
PJV3 said:
The large membership stuff annoys me, we could have millions of members and still lose, it's nice but it doesn't mean much if you lose.
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The idea that paying £3 gives you the right to dictate to the actual electorate is most, most heinous.

The Labour membership should consider itself as a tool of the party, instead there are far too many people who derive their own self importance from it.
 
Audioboxer

Audioboxer

Member
Walshicus said:
I just wish there was even the hint of a positive political future for England. It's exhausting seeing the bad guys win so much.
Click to expand...

It's going to be a long haul, but Labour can rise again once Jeremy has had his fun playing King and buggers off back to the benches and/or retires.

Brexit will forever change the future for the UK, that's just how it's going to be.

Once Scotland decides if we're going to look after our own future or be at the mercy of however long Labour takes we'll be fully there with the rUK. Until then I'll hold out hope we're not quite as "fucked" as England/Wales and N.Ireland are, under the incoming foreseeable Tory reign and hard Brexit.

I would like the chance to get back into the EU as I do think it's a net gain, and also to give May the middle finger considering her approach to Brexit negotiations. It would also be an interesting piece of history rounded off if Scotland goes independent AND gets back into the EU. Fun for historians and school kids to look back at in 60+ years time.

60+ years.... probably still be a Tory majority.
 
cyberheater

cyberheater

PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
My good neighbour got voted in as a councillor for South Lanarkshire. I voted for her. The first time in my 30+ years of being a staunch Labour voter that I voted Tory.

Corbyn. See what you have done you joke of a leader. Do the party a huge favour and fall on your sword and take McDonald and Abbot with you.
You have zero chance of winning this election or any election as no one wants to vote for you. It's not your policies. It's not your manifesto. It's you. Fuck off and give someone else a chance before you completely destroy the Labour party.
 
E

ecosse_011172

Junior Member
cyberheater said:
My good neighbour got voted in as a councillor for South Lanarkshire. I voted for her. The first time in my 30+ years of being a staunch Labour voter that I voted Tory.

Corbyn. See what you have done you joke of a leader. Do the party a huge favour and fall on your sword and take McDonald and Abbot with you.

You have zero chance of winning this election or any election as no one wants to vote for you. It's not your policies. It's not your manifesto. It's you. Fuck off and give someone else a chance before you completely destroy the Labour party.
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Motherwell voting Tory, unbelievable.
 
R

Real Hero

Member
cyberheater said:
My good neighbour got voted in as a councillor for South Lanarkshire. I voted for her. The first time in my 30+ years of being a staunch Labour voter that I voted Tory.

Corbyn. See what you have done you joke of a leader. Do the party a huge favour and fall on your sword and take McDonald and Abbot with you.

You have zero chance of winning this election or any election as no one wants to vote for you. It's not your policies. It's not your manifesto. It's you. Fuck off and give someone else a chance before you completely destroy the Labour party.
Click to expand...
if you don't disagree with his policies and his manifesto why wouldn't you just vote for him?
 
B

Bits N Pieces

Member
Anyone on here from Scotland will appreciate how utterly fucking mental the Tories winning in Shettleston, Ferguslie Park and the Calton actually is, I mean what in the actual fuck!? o_O

Labour are done up here, like its fucking over. They will be gone in the GE.
 
cyberheater

cyberheater

PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
ecosse_011172 said:
Motherwell voting Tory, unbelievable.
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AHA-Lambda said:
Just watched the BBC news and saw one of the Tory councilors for Motherwell wearing Union Jack shoes.

Fuck me.....
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Bits N Pieces said:
Anyone on here from Scotland will appreciate how utterly fucking mental the Tories winning in Shettleston, Ferguslie Park and the Calton actually is, I mean what in the actual fuck!? o_O

Labour are done up here, like its fucking over. They will be gone in the GE.
Click to expand...

Yep. It's batshit crazy. It's like we're living in a parallel universe.
 
M

MrMysterio

Member
cyberheater said:
Yep. It's batshit crazy. It's like we're living in a parallel universe.
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Not too surprised by Tory wins in those areas. Union Jack central.
In their minds SNP = Pro-Euro party, so they vote what they think is the direct opposite, which is Theresa May.

Okay, now writing this down actually still doesn't make it feel less insane. But then nothing is ever sane about Brexit.
 
Jezbollah

Jezbollah

Member
cyberheater said:
Yep. It's batshit crazy. It's like we're living in a parallel universe.
Click to expand...

Speaking of parallel universe:

C_FPE8bW0AEDRSd.jpg
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C_FQXw6XUAAqYAZ.jpg
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B

Bits N Pieces

Member
MrMysterio said:
Not too surprised by Tory wins in those areas. Union Jack central.
In their minds SNP = Pro-Euro party, so they vote what they think is the direct opposite, which is Theresa May.

Okay, now writing this down actually still doesn't make it feel less insane. But then nothing is ever sane about Brexit.
Click to expand...

Shettleston and the Calton are not Union Jack Central, c'mon.
 
J

Jackpot

Banned
And so it goes:

Con: +29% seats
Lab: -22%
Lib: -8%
UKIP: -99%
SNP: +8%

assuming the Guardian's using the right figures. Would be interested in seeing the percentages for national vote share.
 
M

MrMysterio

Member
Bits N Pieces said:
Shettleston and the Calton are not Union Jack Central, c'mon.
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There are definitely portions in both of these areas I started feeling less comfortable talking German aloud.
But yes, you're right, not Union Jack Central, but enough to get a Tory seat elected.

Hopefully it will show people in Scotland that they are not safe from the xenophobic rhetoric making Brexit such a success in England, and push against it for the GE.
 
F

Faddy

Banned
cyberheater said:
My good neighbour got voted in as a councillor for South Lanarkshire. I voted for her. The first time in my 30+ years of being a staunch Labour voter that I voted Tory.

Corbyn. See what you have done you joke of a leader. Do the party a huge favour and fall on your sword and take McDonald and Abbot with you.
You have zero chance of winning this election or any election as no one wants to vote for you. It's not your policies. It's not your manifesto. It's you. Fuck off and give someone else a chance before you completely destroy the Labour party.
Click to expand...

You should be ashamed of yourself.

Plenty of other parties out there before lowering yourself to vote for Tory scum. You don't mind the Labour manifesto but you will bow down and vote Tory because you don't like one person.
 
F

ferrasvansen

Member
Bits N Pieces said:
Shettleston and the Calton are not Union Jack Central, c'mon.
Click to expand...

Yeah but they have large Unionist minorities, and i know the lodges have been well organised into getting members out voting Tory. However i think the Tories doing so well will spur the pro independence voters to turn up on 8th June.
 
M

MrMysterio

Member
ferrasvansen said:
Yeah but they have large Unionist minorities, and i know the lodges have been well organised into getting members out voting Tory. However i think the Tories doing so well will spur the pro independence voters to turn up on 8th June.
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That's my hope, too. But yeah, the anti-EU, pro Union sentiment is real. And their xenophobia can bridge their "working class pride" from labour to Tory quite easily.
 
D

Daemul

Member
Ward 18 Motherwell North

Olivia Carson, Scottish Labour Party
Shahid Farooq, Scottish National Party (SNP)
Pat O'Rourke, Scottish Labour Party
Ann Weir, Scottish National Party (SNP)

I did my bit and voted, not a single Tory in my part of the town thank God. Dampened by the fact that there's now 2 Tory Councillors in Motherwell, when before there was 0. The fuck is going on at Ravenscraig?
 
R

RedSparrows

Member
Delusional.

It's such a shame. A PR-savvy actual lefty like Corbyn, if such a thing is at all possible, would be such a delightful challenge to the Tories, even if you don't agree with his politics.

May was on the radio earlier, saying how she had been working to build a national consensus, and the local results were indicative of this working.

The fact she can say this on the back of such poor turnouts, asfaik, and it will work is telling. Or maybe it's normal. Either way it's fucked.
 
Audioboxer

Audioboxer

Member
w1ck3dn1nj4 said:
Straight talking Cuckbyn
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lol, one of the worst right/alt-right words on the net today, but really, Jeremy Cuckbyn can be chalked up to be appropriate... this one time only.

Daemul said:
Ward 18 Motherwell North

Olivia Carson, Scottish Labour Party
Shahid Farooq, Scottish National Party (SNP)
Pat O'Rourke, Scottish Labour Party
Ann Weir, Scottish National Party (SNP)

I did my bit and voted, not a single Tory in my part of the town thank God. Dampened by the fact that there's now 2 Tory Councillors in Motherwell, when before there was 0. The fuck is going on at Ravenscraig?
Click to expand...

My best guess is simply unionist voters switching to Conservative like elsewhere with zero fucks given for the history of Ravenscraig and the Tories. These upcoming votes in Scotland will have "little" to do with policy and all to do with support the SNP/independence, or stop the SNP and support the Union. Conservatives are wiping the floor with Labour as the face of the Union, Labour needs to stop beating that drum as their only angle in Scotland.

It was much "better" when the Unionists and those against the SNP stuck with Labour. At least the Labour party has some principles and really should be the best opposition in Scotland to both the SNP and the Tories.
 
S

StayDead

Member
As someone from the left I can safely say until Corbyn said he wanted Brexit to happen I supported him.

Honestly, how anyone can look at Teresa May and say she's a better alternative to Corbyn are out of their fing minds. Teresa May is the epitomy of evil. She doesn't care about anyone else. She's happy to run the NHS into the ground, step over the poor to get what she wants and somehow for some reason unbeknownst to me these people are voting for her.

These people are pure idiots. I don't understand how you could see all the corrupt and evil shit the Tories have done in the past few years and say that "you know what? I'll vote for them, they seem to care about me!"

She can't even answer a question for crying out loud and she's a parrot. She has just as much idea of what she's doing as Corbyn does. I voted Lib Dems yesterday and will vote Lib Dems in the General Election, but my god the hate Corbyn gets is insane. I would much rather have him in power than May. At least he seems human, which is rare for a politician.
 
Jezbollah

Jezbollah

Member
Corbyn, and the people he surrounds himself with, are nowhere near competent enough to run this country. They have a track record of not being able to run their party cohesively and in harmony. Regardless of the policies, this collective group of people utterly disqualifies a vote for Labour for me. And I suspect this is the case for thousands of other voters.
 
S

slider

Member
Heh, old Jeremy. What I'd give to peer inside his head. So whilst Trump has used Twitter to help engineer his rise, Corbyn's gonna doorstep folk and have reps speak to them earnestly. It's something I suppose. But how do you scale it up for a GE?

Caveat: I don't even know if the above is accurate. I've based it on snippets that I've picked up but haven't had a chance to look into.
 
M

Miles Quaritch

Member
Dan27 said:
Corbyn, and the people he surrounds himself with, are nowhere near competent enough to run this country. They have a track record of not being able to run their party cohesively and in harmony. Regardless of the policies, this collective group of people utterly disqualifies a vote for Labour for me. And I suspect this is the case for thousands of other voters.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I was going to put my hatred for Corbyn to one side and vote for Labour but I just can't any more.

I might jump aboard the LD dinghy, even though that's felt like a wasted vote in the past, it's really no different from voting Labour at this point. Either one is basically a wasted vote, but at least one party isn't actively going out of their way to show how fucking incompetent they are.

Abbott...I'm still speechless over that shit. Say what you want about the Tories, May, etc, but they'd never let that shit happen.
 
K

Kotetsu534

Member
As bad as the Labour leadership is, I'm not sure it's the real problem. Looking at the extrapolated share of the vote, Corbyn's about 2 points below Miliband. We'll see how he does next month, but I doubt he dips much below 28%, which would put him within touching distance of Brown in 2010 and Miliband in 2015. The bigger issue is that UKIP, who've been drawing votes from both Labour and the Tories - overwhelmingly "Somewheres" in David Goodhart's "Somewhere/Anywhere" analysis - have imploded, and their erstwhile voters are moving en masse to the Tories. Brexit has been, as Ed West has it, a stroke of real fortune for them - it's let them pull those voters back on side ahead of negotiations with the EU.

It's noticeable, for example, that Oxfordshire (surely a Remain/Anywhere hotspot) was one of the only councils the Tories made no progress in, and Labour performed well in Cardiff, Manchester and Liverpool, even as it succumbed to embarrassing lows across the country. It's also noticeable that social class is no longer a big indicator in voting intention - the Tories have similar leads among C2DEs as with ABs.
 
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